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First Round picks for sale?

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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#41 » by dougthonus » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:42 pm

TheStig wrote:Yes, it was a sellers market but deals were there. I think they could have been more aggressive about going for them and bottoming out instead of the moves that haven't led to real success like signing Parker, Young, Sato...... I'd rather have a late teens early 20's pick than Parker anyday.


In retrospect, we ended up getting Porter with that cap room. I think that was a better gamble than a pick in the 20s. Granted, Porter didn't work out as a gamble, but in the same time frame, I would have preferred that as the gamble most likely.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#42 » by TheStig » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:30 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:Yes, it was a sellers market but deals were there. I think they could have been more aggressive about going for them and bottoming out instead of the moves that haven't led to real success like signing Parker, Young, Sato...... I'd rather have a late teens early 20's pick than Parker anyday.


In retrospect, we ended up getting Porter with that cap room. I think that was a better gamble than a pick in the 20s. Granted, Porter didn't work out as a gamble, but in the same time frame, I would have preferred that as the gamble most likely.

I mean you had so many other chances to grab someone. You picked the highlight out which in the end wasn't good. And it was only because they thought they couldn't sign anyone and didn't want to completely suck that we got porter. The last few years are just non stop disappointments. That's why the FO got fired.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#43 » by dougthonus » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:01 am

TheStig wrote:I mean you had so many other chances to grab someone. You picked the highlight out which in the end wasn't good. And it was only because they thought they couldn't sign anyone and didn't want to completely suck that we got porter. The last few years are just non stop disappointments. That's why the FO got fired.


I picked the one time we had cap room, and what we did with it resulted in Porter.

Not sure what other opportunities there were to absorb salary.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#44 » by Ccwatercraft » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:03 am

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:Yes, it was a sellers market but deals were there. I think they could have been more aggressive about going for them and bottoming out instead of the moves that haven't led to real success like signing Parker, Young, Sato...... I'd rather have a late teens early 20's pick than Parker anyday.


In retrospect, we ended up getting Porter with that cap room. I think that was a better gamble than a pick in the 20s. Granted, Porter didn't work out as a gamble, but in the same time frame, I would have preferred that as the gamble most likely.


If porter stays healthy next season it will be a big plus for the team, hes still a good player.

Might make the disappointment easier to forget.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#45 » by TheStig » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:37 am

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:I mean you had so many other chances to grab someone. You picked the highlight out which in the end wasn't good. And it was only because they thought they couldn't sign anyone and didn't want to completely suck that we got porter. The last few years are just non stop disappointments. That's why the FO got fired.


I picked the one time we had cap room, and what we did with it resulted in Porter.

Not sure what other opportunities there were to absorb salary.

Well we signed Parker to a 2/40 (2nd year ungaurnteed) where we had cap room that we later flipped for Porter. We also had cap room (and likely more without the Porter deal) to sign Young.

So that's two years in a row we had cap room to do a deal.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#46 » by TheStig » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:39 am

Ccwatercraft wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:Yes, it was a sellers market but deals were there. I think they could have been more aggressive about going for them and bottoming out instead of the moves that haven't led to real success like signing Parker, Young, Sato...... I'd rather have a late teens early 20's pick than Parker anyday.


In retrospect, we ended up getting Porter with that cap room. I think that was a better gamble than a pick in the 20s. Granted, Porter didn't work out as a gamble, but in the same time frame, I would have preferred that as the gamble most likely.


If porter stays healthy next season it will be a big plus for the team, hes still a good player.

Might make the disappointment easier to forget.

He's making 28.5 million next year. Very doubtful he lives up to that salary. Otto Porter will be an MLE player on his next deal if he's lucky.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#47 » by TheStig » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:15 pm

TheStig wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
In retrospect, we ended up getting Porter with that cap room. I think that was a better gamble than a pick in the 20s. Granted, Porter didn't work out as a gamble, but in the same time frame, I would have preferred that as the gamble most likely.


If porter stays healthy next season it will be a big plus for the team, hes still a good player.

Might make the disappointment easier to forget.

He's making 28.5 million next year. Very doubtful he lives up to that salary. Otto Porter will be an MLE player on his next deal if he's lucky.

BTW if Porter is healthy this year, I hope we can flip him to a contender for a pick. At this point, I wouldn't sign him to a big long term deal.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#48 » by dougthonus » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:53 pm

TheStig wrote:BTW if Porter is healthy this year, I hope we can flip him to a contender for a pick. At this point, I wouldn't sign him to a big long term deal.


Would be nice, even if we could only get a second rounder. Maybe you could get a 1st if you take back someone who has 2 years of bad salary.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#49 » by TheStig » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:15 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:BTW if Porter is healthy this year, I hope we can flip him to a contender for a pick. At this point, I wouldn't sign him to a big long term deal.


Would be nice, even if we could only get a second rounder. Maybe you could get a 1st if you take back someone who has 2 years of bad salary.

I was thinking a Niko type of deal where we got Asik and a pick.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#50 » by dougthonus » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:01 pm

TheStig wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:BTW if Porter is healthy this year, I hope we can flip him to a contender for a pick. At this point, I wouldn't sign him to a big long term deal.


Would be nice, even if we could only get a second rounder. Maybe you could get a 1st if you take back someone who has 2 years of bad salary.

I was thinking a Niko type of deal where we got Asik and a pick.


The challenge is not many teams would take Porter's deal unless they have an undesirable player making similar money that they can push to us. From a theoretical standpoint, this type of deal makes sense, from a practical standpoint, there might not be a single team in the league that has the right pieces to make the salary work, have us take on extra money, willing to give up a pick, and needs Porter.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#51 » by Michael Jackson » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:15 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Would be nice, even if we could only get a second rounder. Maybe you could get a 1st if you take back someone who has 2 years of bad salary.

I was thinking a Niko type of deal where we got Asik and a pick.


The challenge is not many teams would take Porter's deal unless they have an undesirable player making similar money that they can push to us. From a theoretical standpoint, this type of deal makes sense, from a practical standpoint, there might not be a single team in the league that has the right pieces to make the salary work, have us take on extra money, willing to give up a pick, and needs Porter.



If the team is just looking for a playoff rental though it could work out. Not sure of the scenario exactly but saw GSW is back in full swing next year and they feel that the rental of Porter gets them in position to take the title. If it is Maple Jordan that comes back though... well obviously that doesn’t help.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#52 » by dougthonus » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:26 pm

Michael Jackson wrote:If the team is just looking for a playoff rental though it could work out. Not sure of the scenario exactly but saw GSW is back in full swing next year and they feel that the rental of Porter gets them in position to take the title. If it is Maple Jordan that comes back though... well obviously that doesn’t help.


Who does GS give you to match salaries? That's the problem with these types of deals.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#53 » by TheStig » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:01 am

dougthonus wrote:
Michael Jackson wrote:If the team is just looking for a playoff rental though it could work out. Not sure of the scenario exactly but saw GSW is back in full swing next year and they feel that the rental of Porter gets them in position to take the title. If it is Maple Jordan that comes back though... well obviously that doesn’t help.


Who does GS give you to match salaries? That's the problem with these types of deals.

Guys who come to mind: Hortford, Conley, Griffin, Batum, Barnes, Brogdon. Potentially guys like Hayward, DeRozen or Aldridge with an injury.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#54 » by Michael Jackson » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:25 am

dougthonus wrote:
Michael Jackson wrote:If the team is just looking for a playoff rental though it could work out. Not sure of the scenario exactly but saw GSW is back in full swing next year and they feel that the rental of Porter gets them in position to take the title. If it is Maple Jordan that comes back though... well obviously that doesn’t help.


Who does GS give you to match salaries? That's the problem with these types of deals.


It in that scenario almost have to be Wiggins which does the Bulls no favors. There are scenarios like that where something could happen, likelihood though... is very very small. Is there any rule of a no trade for a guy who does a 1 year opt in? I don’t think so but I get lost with some of the CBA rules.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#55 » by dougthonus » Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:15 am

TheStig wrote:Guys who come to mind: Hortford, Conley, Griffin, Batum, Barnes, Brogdon. Potentially guys like Hayward, DeRozen or Aldridge with an injury.


Nos from other team:
DeRozen is better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Aldridge is cheaper, better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Griffin has two years and a lot of money left, but just had possibly the best year of his career, so that's a no go.
Brogdon had a pretty good year for the pacers, no reason to think they want to give up on him, so that's a no go.

Nos from Bulls
Horford has 3 years left and fell off a cliff. The Bulls probably wouldn't pay 50M+ for a pick.

Maybes:
Batum for Porter would be an upgrade for Charlotte if Porter is healthy, but highly unlikely they'd give up a pick to make a rental given their position, so likely a no go (though maybe possible if it was a deadline deal and the pick was heavily protected and Charlotte was in the mix).

Barnes had a decent year for Sacramento and he doesn't have a particularly high salary, not sure if they'd give up on him or not. Would be a lot of salary for the Bulls to take on, but not necessarily bad salary, would require the Bulls to like Harrison and the Kings to want to dump him.

Conley had a really bad year for the Jazz, so maybe they'd trade him, would save them 7M, but they probably wouldn't give up a pick in addition to that too, though you never know. If Porter was healthy at the deadline and Conley wasn't (or was playing poorly still), then this deal good make sense. The Jazz pick is likely not super great either, and hte Jazz may be competitive, so this has everything it needs to make sense under a healthy Porter circumstance.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#56 » by TheStig » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:26 am

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:Guys who come to mind: Hortford, Conley, Griffin, Batum, Barnes, Brogdon. Potentially guys like Hayward, DeRozen or Aldridge with an injury.


Nos from other team:
DeRozen is better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Aldridge is cheaper, better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Griffin has two years and a lot of money left, but just had possibly the best year of his career, so that's a no go.
Brogdon had a pretty good year for the pacers, no reason to think they want to give up on him, so that's a no go.

Nos from Bulls
Horford has 3 years left and fell off a cliff. The Bulls probably wouldn't pay 50M+ for a pick.

Maybes:
Batum for Porter would be an upgrade for Charlotte if Porter is healthy, but highly unlikely they'd give up a pick to make a rental given their position, so likely a no go (though maybe possible if it was a deadline deal and the pick was heavily protected and Charlotte was in the mix).

Barnes had a decent year for Sacramento and he doesn't have a particularly high salary, not sure if they'd give up on him or not. Would be a lot of salary for the Bulls to take on, but not necessarily bad salary, would require the Bulls to like Harrison and the Kings to want to dump him.

Conley had a really bad year for the Jazz, so maybe they'd trade him, would save them 7M, but they probably wouldn't give up a pick in addition to that too, though you never know. If Porter was healthy at the deadline and Conley wasn't (or was playing poorly still), then this deal good make sense. The Jazz pick is likely not super great either, and hte Jazz may be competitive, so this has everything it needs to make sense under a healthy Porter circumstance.

Doug, your analysis is spot on but your crystal ball is not on. We don't know what will happen. Some of these guys will get injured, some will be a distraction, some will fall off a cliff. We just don't know. Teams get desperate and the Bulls have to seize the option. But the most likely scenairo is that he just expires.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#57 » by dougthonus » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:02 am

TheStig wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:Guys who come to mind: Hortford, Conley, Griffin, Batum, Barnes, Brogdon. Potentially guys like Hayward, DeRozen or Aldridge with an injury.


Nos from other team:
DeRozen is better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Aldridge is cheaper, better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Griffin has two years and a lot of money left, but just had possibly the best year of his career, so that's a no go.
Brogdon had a pretty good year for the pacers, no reason to think they want to give up on him, so that's a no go.

Nos from Bulls
Horford has 3 years left and fell off a cliff. The Bulls probably wouldn't pay 50M+ for a pick.

Maybes:
Batum for Porter would be an upgrade for Charlotte if Porter is healthy, but highly unlikely they'd give up a pick to make a rental given their position, so likely a no go (though maybe possible if it was a deadline deal and the pick was heavily protected and Charlotte was in the mix).

Barnes had a decent year for Sacramento and he doesn't have a particularly high salary, not sure if they'd give up on him or not. Would be a lot of salary for the Bulls to take on, but not necessarily bad salary, would require the Bulls to like Harrison and the Kings to want to dump him.

Conley had a really bad year for the Jazz, so maybe they'd trade him, would save them 7M, but they probably wouldn't give up a pick in addition to that too, though you never know. If Porter was healthy at the deadline and Conley wasn't (or was playing poorly still), then this deal good make sense. The Jazz pick is likely not super great either, and hte Jazz may be competitive, so this has everything it needs to make sense under a healthy Porter circumstance.

Doug, your analysis is spot on but your crystal ball is not on. We don't know what will happen. Some of these guys will get injured, some will be a distraction, some will fall off a cliff. We just don't know. Teams get desperate and the Bulls have to seize the option. But the most likely scenairo is that he just expires.


I don't think injuries / change in abilities would change any of these situations except the 'Maybe's. The Nos would probably still be no even if those guys got hurt / worse, but of course, as you note anything can happen. I'm just looking at what I think the likely possibilities of this would be right now.

To my original point, I don't think this would be an easy trade to make.

Beyond the possibilities you listed, there is always teh chance of throwing in multiple contracts like a guy making 15 that expires and a guy making 8 that has 3 years left and looks like a bad deal already. Not sure how many possibilities like that there are, but I don't think a whole lot.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#58 » by ChettheJet » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:54 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:BTW if Porter is healthy this year, I hope we can flip him to a contender for a pick. At this point, I wouldn't sign him to a big long term deal.


Would be nice, even if we could only get a second rounder. Maybe you could get a 1st if you take back someone who has 2 years of bad salary.



I doubt they trade Porter during the off season, a team would be gambling on him being healthy and wouldn't give up much but a second. Where the Bulls can seize an opportunity is IF Otto is healthy and playing as well as expected, if a payoff team suffers a long term or season ending injury to their SF or stretch 4 and they have a late FRP. They might not want to pass up the chance they have in front of them so they give up a young guy off the bench and that FRP, which then saves them some cap space the following few years to get Porter for the rest of the season. Look at BOS if Hayward goes down, or GSW with Green or if they still have Wiggins.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#59 » by TheStig » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:23 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Nos from other team:
DeRozen is better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Aldridge is cheaper, better and has the same contract length, so that's a no go.
Griffin has two years and a lot of money left, but just had possibly the best year of his career, so that's a no go.
Brogdon had a pretty good year for the pacers, no reason to think they want to give up on him, so that's a no go.

Nos from Bulls
Horford has 3 years left and fell off a cliff. The Bulls probably wouldn't pay 50M+ for a pick.

Maybes:
Batum for Porter would be an upgrade for Charlotte if Porter is healthy, but highly unlikely they'd give up a pick to make a rental given their position, so likely a no go (though maybe possible if it was a deadline deal and the pick was heavily protected and Charlotte was in the mix).

Barnes had a decent year for Sacramento and he doesn't have a particularly high salary, not sure if they'd give up on him or not. Would be a lot of salary for the Bulls to take on, but not necessarily bad salary, would require the Bulls to like Harrison and the Kings to want to dump him.

Conley had a really bad year for the Jazz, so maybe they'd trade him, would save them 7M, but they probably wouldn't give up a pick in addition to that too, though you never know. If Porter was healthy at the deadline and Conley wasn't (or was playing poorly still), then this deal good make sense. The Jazz pick is likely not super great either, and hte Jazz may be competitive, so this has everything it needs to make sense under a healthy Porter circumstance.

Doug, your analysis is spot on but your crystal ball is not on. We don't know what will happen. Some of these guys will get injured, some will be a distraction, some will fall off a cliff. We just don't know. Teams get desperate and the Bulls have to seize the option. But the most likely scenairo is that he just expires.


I don't think injuries / change in abilities would change any of these situations except the 'Maybe's. The Nos would probably still be no even if those guys got hurt / worse, but of course, as you note anything can happen. I'm just looking at what I think the likely possibilities of this would be right now.

To my original point, I don't think this would be an easy trade to make.

Beyond the possibilities you listed, there is always teh chance of throwing in multiple contracts like a guy making 15 that expires and a guy making 8 that has 3 years left and looks like a bad deal already. Not sure how many possibilities like that there are, but I don't think a whole lot.

I absolutely think injuries would change things. Particularly if the team is in a playoff run. If one of those expirings has a season ending injury and you're in the playoff hunt, you absolutely take a healthy Porter to fill in. If some of these guys with injury histories goes down, they probably would love to move off of him.

I also think that a guy like Hortford might be someone they consider. He'd still be a really nice starting center that makes the offense flow. I think he's a low key pick up that's a solid vet that would fit nicely. So if you get him and a pick, I think it's not a bad move. It depends on where AK goes. Does he want to bottom out or get better? I think he'd be a great mentor to Carter. Maybe he can convince him to improve the 3 and shoot it. It's the kind of low key move that could really help the team.
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Re: First Round picks for sale? 

Post#60 » by dougthonus » Sun Aug 2, 2020 12:57 pm

TheStig wrote:I also think that a guy like Hortford might be someone they consider. He'd still be a really nice starting center that makes the offense flow. I think he's a low key pick up that's a solid vet that would fit nicely. So if you get him and a pick, I think it's not a bad move. It depends on where AK goes. Does he want to bottom out or get better? I think he'd be a great mentor to Carter. Maybe he can convince him to improve the 3 and shoot it. It's the kind of low key move that could really help the team.


I think Horford would be like getting an even more expensive Thad Young. Good locker room guy but paying for past performance and in significant decline.

He's 34 right now, fell off a production cliff last year, and has 3 years left at 27M per year average. I wouldn't jump on that grenade. 34 is right around the median time good players fall apart due to age, and we've already seen the first signs of it.

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