Around The NBA: 2019-20 RESTART

[TheStig]

I think that's a CP3 deal. A sneaky good move for both teams would be a CP3 and Gallanari sign and trade. Gallanari gets a new deal. Bucks trade Bledsoe, Lopez, Illysova and Lopez with all their 1sts and swaps for CP3 and Gallanari. You're left with their core of CP3, Divencenzo, Middleton, Gallanari and Giannis. You've got a bunch of guys who defend and shoot and can dribble and create. They just have to fill out the bench and get a stiff so Giannis doesn't get to dinged up.

You probably need to send about 49M to get both players depending on what Gallanari demands, so you'd need to add Hill to that deal too. It obviously requires Gallanari to want to go to Milwaukee and to agree to such a deal, which means you need to be the high bidder on him. You'd need to guarantee Ilysova as well.

For the Bucks, if you give up all your future picks, you have taken on significant risk if this team can't win next year, and even risk if it can, because this isn't a team that will have any sustained success. Paul is at the end of his line and Gallinari is pretty close to that too most likely.

For the Thunder, it doesn't even save them any total money due to the length of Lopez/Bledsoe deals, probably makes them worse, and the money extends out further, so there isn't much incentive unless the picks are good.

You might have something here in the Thunder/Bucks being trade partners, but I think you'd probably need to do something like:

Thunder: Bucks 2020+1st, expiring deals from Bucks/3rd team
Bucks: Paul (and maybe Gallo)
3rd team: B. Lopez and/or Bledsoe

Sorry, that was a typo. I had Hill there in my mind to make money work.

I also don't think the money will be a problem for the Thunder. Someone would like to get Lopez and Bledsoe on their reasonable deals to be their 5th starter. They'd likely get someone to eat the deal and add a 2nd. Maybe a late 1st or they take on a worse player for a better first. Particularly Brook Lopez. Illonsyla and Robin are expiring. And Hill is likely the only one they keep since he doesn't have much value but he'd be a nice mentor for Shai and glue guy off the bench. Even rebuilding teams need a vet.

[dougthonus]

Sorry, that was a typo. I had Hill there in my mind to make money work.

I also don't think the money will be a problem for the Thunder. Someone would like to get Lopez and Bledsoe on their reasonable deals to be their 5th starter. They'd likely get someone to eat the deal and add a 2nd. Maybe a late 1st or they take on a worse player for a better first. Particularly Brook Lopez. Illonsyla and Robin are expiring. And Hill is likely the only one they keep since he doesn't have much value but he'd be a nice mentor for Shai and glue guy off the bench. Even rebuilding teams need a vet.

I don't think the money is necessarily a problem for the Thunder, just that if they aren't saving the money, what is their incentive? They clearly aren't better after the deal. Far out picks with high potential probably don't make sense for the Bucks to give up, bad picks don't move the needle enough for the Thunder whom have tons of extra picks already and probably don't need to load up on more low end picks.

[MrFortune3]

The Nuggets as a whole are a streaky team. They live and die on being hot during stretches. There is no balance with them.
Or rather I should say, outside of Jokic there is no reliable consistency to their game as a team. When they're hot they're damn near unbeatable but when they're cold they go flat.

A lot of better teams use their defense to spark their offense if they're flat but the Nuggets don't do that.

[dougthonus]

The Nuggets as a whole are a streaky team. They live and die on being hot during stretches. There is no balance with them.
Or rather I should say, outside of Jokic there is no reliable consistency to their game as a team. When they're hot they're damn near unbeatable but when they're cold they go flat.

A lot of better teams use their defense to spark their offense if they're flat but the Nuggets don't do that.

I would be super excited to watch game 7, but I don't think I'll get to watch it live unfortunately.

[TheStig]

Sorry, that was a typo. I had Hill there in my mind to make money work.

I also don't think the money will be a problem for the Thunder. Someone would like to get Lopez and Bledsoe on their reasonable deals to be their 5th starter. They'd likely get someone to eat the deal and add a 2nd. Maybe a late 1st or they take on a worse player for a better first. Particularly Brook Lopez. Illonsyla and Robin are expiring. And Hill is likely the only one they keep since he doesn't have much value but he'd be a nice mentor for Shai and glue guy off the bench. Even rebuilding teams need a vet.

I don't think the money is necessarily a problem for the Thunder, just that if they aren't saving the money, what is their incentive? They clearly aren't better after the deal. Far out picks with high potential probably don't make sense for the Bucks to give up, bad picks don't move the needle enough for the Thunder whom have tons of extra picks already and probably don't need to load up on more low end picks.

I mean what exactly do you get for CP3? They aren't getting young potential guys. They're not really interested in cutting payroll. Picks is what's in it. This deal will get them some picks and then you can flip Lopez and Bledsoe for additional draft capital. I kind of see it as the next CP3 ish deal for them. They took Westbrook and traded him for CP3 and picks. Now they trade him for a guy like Bledsoe and picks. They let Bledsoe look great and then trade him for more picks. Eventually you make a godfather offer for someone you really like or some of them pan out. Presti is pretty good at drafting.

The team that makes a move for CP3 is going to be a contender level team afterwards. Like for example I can see Utah doing Conley and a 1st for CP3. So the picks won't be great. I think Milwaukee will push all the chips in for CP3 and Galanari if Giannis gives them a short term extension or more. They just won't contend without him and likely miss the playoffs too. They really can't afford to lose him.

[dougthonus]

I mean what exactly do you get for CP3? They aren't getting young potential guys. They're not really interested in cutting payroll. Picks is what's in it. This deal will get them some picks and then you can flip Lopez and Bledsoe for additional draft capital. I kind of see it as the next CP3 ish deal for them. They took Westbrook and traded him for CP3 and picks. Now they trade him for a guy like Bledsoe and picks. They let Bledsoe look great and then trade him for more picks. Eventually you make a godfather offer for someone you really like or some of them pan out. Presti is pretty good at drafting.

The team that makes a move for CP3 is going to be a contender level team afterwards. Like for example I can see Utah doing Conley and a 1st for CP3. So the picks won't be great. I think Milwaukee will push all the chips in for CP3 and Galanari if Giannis gives them a short term extension or more. They just won't contend without him and likely miss the playoffs too. They really can't afford to lose him.

I just don't see them taking salary that goes out 2 extra years to get late 1st rounders which is why I think you need the 3rd team involved. I don't think anyone is giving you picks for Lopez or Bledsoe. Overall, I think you're overestimating how often you can just take guys and flip them for picks, particularly in this day and age. The CP3/Westbrook trade was an insanely stupid deal by Houston, the Thunder got completely bailed out on that one.

I could see them getting a late 1st for Paul and saving some money, your Utah trade also makes sense, but I think they need to save / stay equal on money in such a deal and not take on extra years. I agree that Milwaukee can't afford to lose Giannis, but I don't think Giannis accepts an extension under any circumstances, and I think he leaves pretty much no matter what. What is the appeal to Giannis 2 years from now after this trade?

[MrFortune3]

The Nuggets as a whole are a streaky team. They live and die on being hot during stretches. There is no balance with them.
Or rather I should say, outside of Jokic there is no reliable consistency to their game as a team. When they're hot they're damn near unbeatable but when they're cold they go flat.

A lot of better teams use their defense to spark their offense if they're flat but the Nuggets don't do that.

I would be super excited to watch game 7, but I don't think I'll get to watch it live unfortunately.

There is a lot on the line in that game 7. Clippers are notorious for folding in key moments in the playoffs as a franchise.
The Nuggets represent the new breed of NBA franchise building. This game should be epic.
I'm also curious to see how the Nuggets play because I feel that AK will blend some of the Raptors and Nuggets values in building out the Bulls franchise.

[MrFortune3]

I mean what exactly do you get for CP3? They aren't getting young potential guys. They're not really interested in cutting payroll. Picks is what's in it. This deal will get them some picks and then you can flip Lopez and Bledsoe for additional draft capital. I kind of see it as the next CP3 ish deal for them. They took Westbrook and traded him for CP3 and picks. Now they trade him for a guy like Bledsoe and picks. They let Bledsoe look great and then trade him for more picks. Eventually you make a godfather offer for someone you really like or some of them pan out. Presti is pretty good at drafting.

The team that makes a move for CP3 is going to be a contender level team afterwards. Like for example I can see Utah doing Conley and a 1st for CP3. So the picks won't be great. I think Milwaukee will push all the chips in for CP3 and Galanari if Giannis gives them a short term extension or more. They just won't contend without him and likely miss the playoffs too. They really can't afford to lose him.

I just don't see them taking salary that goes out 2 extra years to get late 1st rounders which is why I think you need the 3rd team involved. I don't think anyone is giving you picks for Lopez or Bledsoe. Overall, I think you're overestimating how often you can just take guys and flip them for picks, particularly in this day and age. The CP3/Westbrook trade was an insanely stupid deal by Houston, the Thunder got completely bailed out on that one.

I could see them getting a late 1st for Paul and saving some money, your Utah trade also makes sense, but I think they need to save / stay equal on money in such a deal and not take on extra years. I agree that Milwaukee can't afford to lose Giannis, but I don't think Giannis accepts an extension under any circumstances, and I think he leaves pretty much no matter what. What is the appeal to Giannis 2 years from now after this trade?

Morey always makes insanely stupid deals. Then he finds a way to get out of them. It's actually kind of amazing to watch unfold.

[TheStig]

I mean what exactly do you get for CP3? They aren't getting young potential guys. They're not really interested in cutting payroll. Picks is what's in it. This deal will get them some picks and then you can flip Lopez and Bledsoe for additional draft capital. I kind of see it as the next CP3 ish deal for them. They took Westbrook and traded him for CP3 and picks. Now they trade him for a guy like Bledsoe and picks. They let Bledsoe look great and then trade him for more picks. Eventually you make a godfather offer for someone you really like or some of them pan out. Presti is pretty good at drafting.

The team that makes a move for CP3 is going to be a contender level team afterwards. Like for example I can see Utah doing Conley and a 1st for CP3. So the picks won't be great. I think Milwaukee will push all the chips in for CP3 and Galanari if Giannis gives them a short term extension or more. They just won't contend without him and likely miss the playoffs too. They really can't afford to lose him.

I just don't see them taking salary that goes out 2 extra years to get late 1st rounders which is why I think you need the 3rd team involved. I don't think anyone is giving you picks for Lopez or Bledsoe. Overall, I think you're overestimating how often you can just take guys and flip them for picks, particularly in this day and age. The CP3/Westbrook trade was an insanely stupid deal by Houston, the Thunder got completely bailed out on that one.

I could see them getting a late 1st for Paul and saving some money, your Utah trade also makes sense, but I think they need to save / stay equal on money in such a deal and not take on extra years. I agree that Milwaukee can't afford to lose Giannis, but I don't think Giannis accepts an extension under any circumstances, and I think he leaves pretty much no matter what. What is the appeal to Giannis 2 years from now after this trade?

Doug, no one wanted CP3 after what happened in Houston when his numbers went down and he was mainly a spot up shooter. Bledsoe and Lopez have been underutilized in Milwaukee the same way. I can easily see them moving on from Adams. An open court system built around Bledsoe, Shai, Lopez and young guys will remind people how good they can be. Bledsoe was a 20/6 guy a few years ago with Phoenix. I think people will look Bledsoe and Lopez as a starters on reasonable deals. I think someone will give up a pick for those guys if they need to make a push.

I don't think OKC cares about taking on reasonable deals. They're going to have to hit the salary floor and will have lots of picks every year. It's not like they'll sign a star. I don't see them being salary conscious. They have to hit 90% of the cap.

[dougthonus]

Doug, no one wanted CP3 after what happened in Houston when his numbers went down and he was mainly a spot up shooter. Bledsoe and Lopez have been underutilized in Milwaukee the same way. I can easily see them moving on from Adams. An open court system built around Bledsoe, Shai, Lopez and young guys will remind people how good they can be. Bledsoe was a 20/6 guy a few years ago with Phoenix. I think people will look Bledsoe and Lopez as a starters on reasonable deals. I think someone will give up a pick for those guys if they need to make a push.

I don't think OKC cares about taking on reasonable deals. They're going to have to hit the salary floor and will have lots of picks every year. It's not like they'll sign a star. I don't see them being salary conscious. They have to hit 90% of the cap.

It's pretty clear that CP3 at 3/120 after a bad year is worth a lot less than CP3 at 2/80 after a good year, so I completely agree that his value is much better now.

I think this trade will be hard to pull off simply due to the massive amount of money involved and the needs not lining up, but I agree that you have the base of something reasonable.

I don't think Bledsoe or Lopez well ever fetch a meaningful pick, but you're right, some team making a push might give them a pick in the mid to upper 20s for one of those guys if the situation landed just right. Would require the right blend of team need, reasonable chance to improve position, and the right matching salaries being available.

Of course that assumes those guys continue to be good performers/stay healthy. Lopez is in decline and his contract runs until he's 35 probably less likely he has much value. Bledsoe's on a reasonable deal for his play and probably won't fall off a cliff prior to his deal ending.

[TheStig]

Doug, no one wanted CP3 after what happened in Houston when his numbers went down and he was mainly a spot up shooter. Bledsoe and Lopez have been underutilized in Milwaukee the same way. I can easily see them moving on from Adams. An open court system built around Bledsoe, Shai, Lopez and young guys will remind people how good they can be. Bledsoe was a 20/6 guy a few years ago with Phoenix. I think people will look Bledsoe and Lopez as a starters on reasonable deals. I think someone will give up a pick for those guys if they need to make a push.

I don't think OKC cares about taking on reasonable deals. They're going to have to hit the salary floor and will have lots of picks every year. It's not like they'll sign a star. I don't see them being salary conscious. They have to hit 90% of the cap.

It's pretty clear that CP3 at 3/120 after a bad year is worth a lot less than CP3 at 2/80 after a good year, so I completely agree that his value is much better now.

I think this trade will be hard to pull off simply due to the massive amount of money involved and the needs not lining up, but I agree that you have the base of something reasonable.

I don't think Bledsoe or Lopez well ever fetch a meaningful pick, but you're right, some team making a push might give them a pick in the mid to upper 20s for one of those guys if the situation landed just right. Would require the right blend of team need, reasonable chance to improve position, and the right matching salaries being available.

Of course that assumes those guys continue to be good performers/stay healthy. Lopez is in decline and his contract runs until he's 35 probably less likely he has much value. Bledsoe's on a reasonable deal for his play and probably won't fall off a cliff prior to his deal ending.

I get that. I just think Presti will milk some picks and/or swaps for CP3 on the way out to Milwaukee. The late picks for Lopez or Bledsoe would just be icing on the cake. I think he's hoarding these picks to make a future deal or trade up or just have young assets. He seems to really value them.

[dice]

Moving the 3 point line back has been researched, and I don't think it will change anything because the reduction in 3P% every few feet is pretty small. It's certainly not going to offset +50% more points than a 2.

Goldsberry had these stats on deep 3s:
28': 34.1%
30': 31.3%
30'+: 27.3%
All deep 3s: 32.5%

there's a fundamental problem with such analysis: it's the elite shooters that are shooting the bulk of the deep threes. so while moving the line back will not impact THEIR shot selection, it sure as hell will for most of the league, necessitating a more balanced inside-outside approach

[MrSparkle]

Any intuitive and experienced GM would know that after 35, MOST great players are running on fumes. It's gotta be a lightning-in-a-bottle to work out. MJ and Lebron are basically the best players ever, and at 35 play(ed) like superstars, but the thing is they had hand-picked teams with chemistry. LAL worked out the cap; they didn't get A-players but they did get very good role-players, and lucked out with the bargain bin (which I acknowledge, part of it is guys who are over-the-hill get motivated to play and contend with Lebron).

I also don't think Presti is aiming for the moon with CP3's value. So I don't think it'll take a wild offer, but he sure is gonna sweeten the return on Morey's awful pay-out.

It's gonna be tough if PHI or MIL sacrifice any depth for CP3. They need to retain a deep team with the realization that his consistency is gonna cascade any month in the next season, regardless how healthy his diet and training regiment is. Nash's massive drop was at 38yo in LA, but he already had a noticeable decline the 2 years before.

But both squads are in the deep FRP/cap hell, so really I don't see a con to just going for it. Unfortunately they have to bid against each other. I don't think MIL should swing it. They'd probably have to lose Bledsoe and Hill to make the salaries work, and they need that depth to support CP3. Philly meanwhile can shed one of their disaster contracts (Horford or Harris) while sweetening the pot with Thybull or FRPs.

[kodo]

Agreed I don't think Presti will be stubborn with CP3. Once it became apparent OKC's owners weren't going to max Harden, he let Harden go to HOU for whatever Houston had even though he knew other teams could probably beat that offer of Kevin Martin & the #11 pick. He said the other factor was he didn't want a months long bidding war distracting his team from basketball.

As long as some 1st round picks are involved, I think he'll move CP3 for cheaper than people expect.

[troza]

But let's say that they did well to keep CP3 for now. It is amazing how keeping him worked wonders for them.

I don't see any young team going for him... but after these playoffs... Bucks (if Giannis is there for one more season) will go all in... and let's see who else fails... Whoever fails on west (Clippers... and maybe Lakers) will also go after him if they still have something to offer...

Miami and Denver can believe they need to contend now with what they have so... maybe they can try to get him.

I doubt Boston goes after him due to the young core they have... unless they go to the finals and somehow they want to add some quality at a position that they do not seem they are missing.

76ers on a suicide move? Maybe...

Still... OKC with the right moves unloading Paul George and Westbrook/Chris Paul so far. Let's see if this will be enough for them to compensate the Harden trade they did all those years ago (what I mean by this is to get back to a contender status with good potential... I doubt they will ever draft 3 future MVPs in a row again alongside with some good talent)

[dougthonus]

I get that. I just think Presti will milk some picks and/or swaps for CP3 on the way out to Milwaukee. The late picks for Lopez or Bledsoe would just be icing on the cake. I think he's hoarding these picks to make a future deal or trade up or just have young assets. He seems to really value them.

When in a rebuild, extra picks are always valuable. They are at a point where they have so many picks they may struggle to develop all those young players but they're still good to trade up or trade for talent later even if you can't use them all.

I love what Presti has done. Absolutely incredible GM work to reset his franchise under the circumstances.

[TheStig]

I get that. I just think Presti will milk some picks and/or swaps for CP3 on the way out to Milwaukee. The late picks for Lopez or Bledsoe would just be icing on the cake. I think he's hoarding these picks to make a future deal or trade up or just have young assets. He seems to really value them.

When in a rebuild, extra picks are always valuable. They are at a point where they have so many picks they may struggle to develop all those young players but they're still good to trade up or trade for talent later even if you can't use them all.

I love what Presti has done. Absolutely incredible GM work to reset his franchise under the circumstances.

Isn't that kinda the same thing I said lol

I don't think it's incredible. Incredible was having a rebuild that netted Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka. I see one really promising player in Shai. Everyone else is very meh. To me an excellent rebuild is when you get an excellent young player or elite prospect. That for examples was why I was never behind the Jimmy deal. We'll see where the picks land but at this point Clippers and Rocket picks aren't looking great.

[dougthonus]

Isn't that kinda the same thing I said lol

Well, I brought it back to things we agree on. I disagree about their ability to get more picks out of some of the guys you did, I just didn't want to harp on it any longer, because it doesn't really matter

I don't think it's incredible. Incredible was having a rebuild that netted Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka. I see one really promising player in Shai. Everyone else is very meh. To me an excellent rebuild is when you get an excellent young player or elite prospect. That for examples was why I was never behind the Jimmy deal. We'll see where the picks land but at this point Clippers and Rocket picks aren't looking great.

Well they got 9 extra 1st round picks, many with very high potential (though far out into the future) and improved their record and playoff performance. That's pretty great IMO. Yeah, they have a lot to figure out over the next few years, but of teams that don't have a true franchise player, OKC is probably easily the best positioned.

[TheStig]

Isn't that kinda the same thing I said lol

Well, I brought it back to things we agree on. I disagree about their ability to get more picks out of some of the guys you did, I just didn't want to harp on it any longer, because it doesn't really matter

I don't think it's incredible. Incredible was having a rebuild that netted Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka. I see one really promising player in Shai. Everyone else is very meh. To me an excellent rebuild is when you get an excellent young player or elite prospect. That for examples was why I was never behind the Jimmy deal. We'll see where the picks land but at this point Clippers and Rocket picks aren't looking great.

Well they got 9 extra 1st round picks, many with very high potential (though far out into the future) and improved their record and playoff performance. That's pretty great IMO.

Lol fair enough. I think it's a good deal for both. That's not to say someone doesn't outbid them. I definitely think this is peak CP3 value on this deal. I personally think Utah goes all in. I think if they get this same CP3 and he doesn't decline the next year or two significantly, they can be a serious contender.

I get it. But has Houston ever been really bad during the Morey tenure? I think their floor has been barely missing the playoffs. And as long as they have Harden, I can't really see that happening. He's been really good at pulling things out of his @ss to put around him. I have even more respect for West and the Clipps. To me, I don't think those picks hit a good lottery pick. To me, it looks like a bunch of c level prospects being taken there. Shai looks like the big haul here. Where I can see it helping is them trading up with those picks or packaging someone and picks for a star.

[dougthonus]

Lol fair enough. I think it's a good deal for both. That's not to say someone doesn't outbid them. I definitely think this is peak CP3 value on this deal. I personally think Utah goes all in. I think if they get this same CP3 and he doesn't decline the next year or two significantly, they can be a serious contender.

I get it. But has Houston ever been really bad during the Morey tenure? I think their floor has been barely missing the playoffs. And as long as they have Harden, I can't really see that happening. He's been really good at pulling things out of his @ss to put around him. I have even more respect for West and the Clipps. To me, I don't think those picks hit a good lottery pick. To me, it looks like a bunch of c level prospects being taken there. Shai looks like the big haul here. Where I can see it helping is them trading up with those picks or packaging someone and picks for a star.

Might be the case that all these picks end up being lousy for sure. The Rockets picks are protected 1-4 as well. However, you're talking picks up to 2026 from both teams and rights to swap. Those teams could easily (and likely will) lose their star players well before that point or have them fall off a cliff even if they stay.

Even if you just had 9 extra mid to late 1sts over 6 years that would be amazing in your ability to trade up or trade out and collect more assets. Imagine every year you just trade one of your multiple extra picks for multiple picks further out in the draft.

For a team without a franchise player, I'll take the Thunder's setup over anyone else in the league.