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How Good is Jimmy Butler?

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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#121 » by ThreeMileAllan » Wed Sep 9, 2020 4:29 am

HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.
This board doesn't want to admit it, but the front office listened to them and took their feedback into account. It is why the front office changed directions so. Damn. Often.

Yes, thats the front office fault for bending to loud people on the internet and media instead of sticking to their plan. But its also the fans for not appreciating when we have bona-fide talent on our team in favor of lottery balls.... hoping... hoping... we can get players that may eventually turn into the players we traded away.

Micheal Jordan isn't walking through that door folks. LeBron James isn't walking through that door. We are not marrying Heidi Klum. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Natalie Dormer are some pretty darn good alternatives.



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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#122 » by kulaz3000 » Wed Sep 9, 2020 4:42 am

HomoSapien wrote:
kulaz3000 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.


Why though? I don't think anyone discounted the fact that he was a really good player. At worst, I think most agree that he is a top 15 player in this league, then and now. The problem was that the Bulls thought he wasn't a player they could build around as a championship player, so they opted to rebuild.

The Heat and their management are clearly on a different level, where they have built a championship teams in the past and have done a great job at doing just that with Jimmy at the helm, but also, let's not get ahead of ourselves, he has yet to be on a team as the best player who has got passed the second round.

I absolutely love the guy, and have ever since we drafted him, but I don't regret moving on from him, because I had zero confidence that the Bulls front office at the time could properly build around him and the hope was that they would do better via the draft. He still don't think he is a player who can be the best player on a championship team. I would abosolutely be over-joyed if he can and does, but he is a teir below the best players of the league, and usually championship teams have one or two of the top 10 players in the league.


Because the argument was that you couldn't build a contender around Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat have built one and the support they've given him is something we could have replicated.


Are the Heat really legitimate Championship contenders though?
Why so serious?
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#123 » by chrispatrick » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:11 am

pipfan wrote:I was fine with the trade, and I still am. It was the right move at the time. We were going nowhere. Our biggest mistake was Boylan, and the disaster he was as a coach. Remember, Lauri was 19/9 as a rookie and headed to the All Star game. Lavine has been very good for us. Dunn is what he is.

Injuries, bad coaching and regression have set us back, not losing Butler.


Oh man, nothing fires me up more than a "it was a right move at the time". (Which, to be fair, seemed to be at least half of this board's thinking).

The benefit of young players is the one in X chance they develop into a star that is capable of outperforming a max contract. LaVine was already clearly not that given the holes in his game before he tore his ACL, and few ever though Markannen had true star potential. Even at the time, both jumped out as the kind of players who would exhibit enough skills to command large 2nd contracts based on their "potential" but not actually good enough to win games. And that's exactly where we are, I don't know how it could have been more clear at the time we traded for these guys.

I don't post much anymore since the Bulls decided to tank the next 5-10 years by trading Butler, but of course not tanking so much as to actually acquire good picks, but I'm not sure how Boylen gets much of the blame. I don't know who could look at this Bulls team with a straight face and suggest they'd be a winner under different coaching.

The outcome of the trade and pretty much every move since has been disappointingly predictable.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#124 » by chrispatrick » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:17 am

HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.


Not all, but the majority of this board has always underrated him. I remember an April Fool's post about him getting an $8M a year contract and people thinking it was crazy, when he was so obviously impacting the eye test of how the team played on the court and the advanced stats before he even had the offensive game he does now.

I'm disappointed the trade has played out exactly as expected in 2017.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#125 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:17 am

ThreeMileAllan wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.
This board doesn't want to admit it, but the front office listened to them and took their feedback into account. It is why the front office changed directions so. Damn. Often.

Yes, thats the front office fault for bending to loud people on the internet and media instead of sticking to their plan. But its also the fans for not appreciating when we have bona-fide talent on our team in favor of lottery balls.... hoping... hoping... we can get players that may eventually turn into the players we traded away.

Micheal Jordan isn't walking through that door folks. LeBron James isn't walking through that door. We are not marrying Heidi Klum. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Natalie Dormer are some pretty darn good alternatives.

heidi klum vs natalie dormer?

good luck to anyone trying to figure out your age based on this post

i really don't think that the bulls FO was listening to the fans tell them to trade jimmy. partly because the fans weren't asking for that any more than they were asking for derrick to be traded. signing d wade? yeah, that might have been done w/ fan interest in mind
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#126 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:20 am

chrispatrick wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.


Not all, but the majority of this board has always underrated him. I remember an April Fool's post about him getting an $8M a year contract and people thinking it was crazy, when he was so obviously impacting the eye test of how the team played on the court and the advanced stats before he even had the offensive game he does now.

I'm disappointed the trade has played out exactly as expected in 2017.

remember when he wasn't much of a scorer and everyone derided the "buckets" nickname that stacey gave him?
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#127 » by dice » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:22 am

kulaz3000 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:
kulaz3000 wrote:
Why though? I don't think anyone discounted the fact that he was a really good player. At worst, I think most agree that he is a top 15 player in this league, then and now. The problem was that the Bulls thought he wasn't a player they could build around as a championship player, so they opted to rebuild.

The Heat and their management are clearly on a different level, where they have built a championship teams in the past and have done a great job at doing just that with Jimmy at the helm, but also, let's not get ahead of ourselves, he has yet to be on a team as the best player who has got passed the second round.

I absolutely love the guy, and have ever since we drafted him, but I don't regret moving on from him, because I had zero confidence that the Bulls front office at the time could properly build around him and the hope was that they would do better via the draft. He still don't think he is a player who can be the best player on a championship team. I would abosolutely be over-joyed if he can and does, but he is a teir below the best players of the league, and usually championship teams have one or two of the top 10 players in the league.


Because the argument was that you couldn't build a contender around Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat have built one and the support they've given him is something we could have replicated.


Are the Heat really legitimate Championship contenders though?

could a better supporting cast be built around him?

even if the answer is no, the heat were the 8th best team in the regular season (SRS). in a year when there's not a dynastic team in the league, i'd say that's good enough to be a legit contender. there hasn't even been a distinct favorite this year
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#128 » by HomoSapien » Wed Sep 9, 2020 9:22 am

kulaz3000 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:
kulaz3000 wrote:
Why though? I don't think anyone discounted the fact that he was a really good player. At worst, I think most agree that he is a top 15 player in this league, then and now. The problem was that the Bulls thought he wasn't a player they could build around as a championship player, so they opted to rebuild.

The Heat and their management are clearly on a different level, where they have built a championship teams in the past and have done a great job at doing just that with Jimmy at the helm, but also, let's not get ahead of ourselves, he has yet to be on a team as the best player who has got passed the second round.

I absolutely love the guy, and have ever since we drafted him, but I don't regret moving on from him, because I had zero confidence that the Bulls front office at the time could properly build around him and the hope was that they would do better via the draft. He still don't think he is a player who can be the best player on a championship team. I would abosolutely be over-joyed if he can and does, but he is a teir below the best players of the league, and usually championship teams have one or two of the top 10 players in the league.


Because the argument was that you couldn't build a contender around Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat have built one and the support they've given him is something we could have replicated.


Are the Heat really legitimate Championship contenders though?


If a team's good enough to get to the conference finals and they had to beat the best team in the league to get there, then yes, I'd say they are legitimate contenders.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#129 » by drosereturn » Wed Sep 9, 2020 11:02 am

ThreeMileAllan wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.
This board doesn't want to admit it, but the front office listened to them and took their feedback into account. It is why the front office changed directions so. Damn. Often.

Yes, thats the front office fault for bending to loud people on the internet and media instead of sticking to their plan. But its also the fans for not appreciating when we have bona-fide talent on our team in favor of lottery balls.... hoping... hoping... we can get players that may eventually turn into the players we traded away.

Micheal Jordan isn't walking through that door folks. LeBron James isn't walking through that door. We are not marrying Heidi Klum. Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Natalie Dormer are some pretty darn good alternatives.



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Nope still thought it was the right idea to move away but the fo didnt excute the rebuild properly at all.
they never fully tanked to get hinkie style asset mode when they were clearly depleted in talent from the post rose era.
2018 was the biggest punishment they got missing out on both Young and Doncic and they are both better talent than Butler.
As good as Butler is, he is not a superstar number1 option and I expect at least 2-3 players better than him every yr in the draft in terms of talent. Keeping guys like Butler and Lavine makes it impossible to acquire those type of players unless ur pulling a Jokic miracle. trust me, hiring Hinkie would have been a world of difference instead of being stuck with Lavine. As much as he wasnt great drafting, he would have had gotten more than fair value for Butler trade and the high lottery picks if he wanted to sell.

Asking a Miami style constructed team was too much Garpax which is why in hindsight it was the right decision to trade although they got kinda fleeced for a top 10 player at the time. Even top tier gms will struggle to get 4-5 rookies performing starter level within few yrs and Miami somehow miraculously did it while in cap hell. And even Miami will not even close to be winning the finals which is why they will add a superstar in FA but Chitown was always shunned expecting Giannis to come is fantasy.
Because Jimmy is not a superstar, Bulls would have been forever a 2nd round exit team with no future capital. History has proven even a way better version in Pippen as number 1 doesnt even get you close to a ring.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#130 » by drosereturn » Wed Sep 9, 2020 11:16 am

Atlanta style rebuild is all I wanted for half a decade. Becoming the Mavs would be great but that involves luck and its unrealistic to land another goat type ceiling player in yr 2 rebuild. This franchise player just has to lead the team in scoring and assists which is Young is doing rn. Someone capable of putting 25/10 and defense is preferred, not mandatory if he is putting up 60% ts.
Im all in on Wiseman at 4 only bc theres no player like this in this draft other than Ball and they can tank for yrs after.
While this type of player is hard to get, it is very gettable if you get a top 5 pick and him alone will be better fit than Butler.

Absolutely hate getting super role players with such a high pick since you have to pay him later.
Either superstar potential long term projects (Giannis, Poku types) or want 3 and D role players with late firsts late in the draft. Great role players like Lou Williams you can always get them in fa, trades.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#131 » by ShadyMoney » Wed Sep 9, 2020 11:19 am

kulaz3000 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Ok, it's official. A large portion of this board owes Jimmy Butler a big apology.


Why though? I don't think anyone discounted the fact that he was a really good player. At worst, I think most agree that he is a top 15 player in this league, then and now. The problem was that the Bulls thought he wasn't a player they could build around as a championship player, so they opted to rebuild.

The Heat and their management are clearly on a different level, where they have built a championship teams in the past and have done a great job at doing just that with Jimmy at the helm, but also, let's not get ahead of ourselves, he has yet to be on a team as the best player who has got passed the second round.

I absolutely love the guy, and have ever since we drafted him, but I don't regret moving on from him, because I had zero confidence that the Bulls front office at the time could properly build around him and the hope was that they would do better via the draft. He still don't think he is a player who can be the best player on a championship team. I would abosolutely be over-joyed if he can and does, but he is a teir below the best players of the league, and usually championship teams have one or two of the top 10 players in the league.



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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#132 » by ShadyMoney » Wed Sep 9, 2020 11:22 am

Lol @ heat not being contenders


They would destroy Boston.


They lockdown squad is crazy when it gets to grind time.


And Pat Riley did this in 1 year.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#133 » by FriedRise » Wed Sep 9, 2020 12:54 pm

ShadyMoney wrote:Lol @ heat not being contenders


They would destroy Boston.


They lockdown squad is crazy when it gets to grind time.


And Pat Riley did this in 1 year.


And like $0 in cap space. They had a ton of money tied to guys like Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Winslow, Josh Richardson, Wayne Ellington, Dion Waiters. They somehow developed those guys enough and consolidated/turned them into better contributors that fit their style of play or give them cap relief.

They just know how to build a team, recognize talent, and develop those talents. They have so many first/second year guys contributing positively in these playoffs (Bam, Robinson, Herro) vs a much more talented and experienced team in the Bucks instead of being unplayable like most rookies/sophomores.

And another thing about Butler: for a guy who this board loves to say isn't much of an offensive player, every team he's been on has gotten an uptick offensively:

The 16-17 Timberwolves were 4th on offense (10th before acquiring Butler, 11th after trading Butler)
The 18-19 Sixers were 8th on offense (12th before, 13th after)
The 19-20 Heat are 7th on offense (26th before)

Yes it's a bit of an oversimplification because there are many other factors at play, but there's a pattern here that suggests that JB is a pretty elite offensive player that makes the team better. He's not gonna wow you his stepback 3s or explosive tomahawk dunks, but he gets the job done all the same.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#134 » by The Explorer » Wed Sep 9, 2020 1:33 pm

I thought it was a terrible trade at the time and obviously still is years later. For all the justification people tried to make for GarPaxDorf, they still have nothing significant to show for that trade.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#135 » by TheSuzerain » Wed Sep 9, 2020 1:48 pm

HomoSapien wrote:I mean, there's a world where a trio of Butler, Mirotic, and Rose (at their current levels) is good enough to carry this team into the playoffs and maybe be a deep playoff team if they're surrounded with quality coaching and role players.

I will never understand how the FO who perpetually over-valued and kept their players too long, traded Butler -- the guy that was their shining draft pick, who embodied their ideals of tireless work-ethic and a commitment to defense, and actually made them look okay by carrying to the playoffs. It's just mid-boggling.

But Mark is right. If they actually tanked well, then this criticism probably vanishes.

You want to know what's really depressing?

The alternative reality in which we cut Butler instead of trading him probably results in a more promising Bulls team in 2020 than we have now.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#136 » by Am2626 » Wed Sep 9, 2020 2:52 pm

HomoSapien wrote:
kulaz3000 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:
Because the argument was that you couldn't build a contender around Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat have built one and the support they've given him is something we could have replicated.


Are the Heat really legitimate Championship contenders though?


If a team's good enough to get to the conference finals and they had to beat the best team in the league to get there, then yes, I'd say they are legitimate contenders.


It depends on how you define legitimate contender. I don’t see them having any chance against the Lakers or Clippers and even see it hard for them to get past a team like the Rockets. Yes they can make it to the Finals but they aren’t winning a championship. A few things have helped them in these playoffs. The first being that they are playing in a neutral venue. Actually you could even argue that they have an advantage with being close to their home. They also match up well against the Bucks. The third being that the Bucks while having a great team has not had the playoff success or experience that other contending teams have had. A LeBron or Kawhi led team is much harder to beat than a Giannis led team.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#137 » by dougthonus » Wed Sep 9, 2020 3:20 pm

chrispatrick wrote:Oh man, nothing fires me up more than a "it was a right move at the time". (Which, to be fair, seemed to be at least half of this board's thinking).


:dontknow:

All moves operate on a continuum of unknown variables. People tend to look at the results and then pretend that they knew this would happen all along, but those same people cannot predict all the results from today to 2 years from today. They just predicted this one thing.

Take any event, and there is someone who will have predicted it, but that same person can't be relied on to predict the next thing or all things. I state this, just so we can drop the notion that "I called this, so of course I'm right", because no one, not me, not you, not anyone else, is predicting things at such a rate that they should take up this stance.

If you then remove that, and operate on the idea of what Butler's skillset was and what his contract was, and those of the players we got back and the position of the franchise you're left with something like this:

1: Butler looked like a low rung all-star type guy. Definitely highly questionable whether he could be a franchise guy. Had clashes with a lot of people as well. He was on a sweetheart deal with two years left due to the cap change and would be looking for a 5/200M supermax if he stays.

2: LaVine / Dunn were two young players on rookie deals. Dunn was just drafted 5th in the previous draft and had a rough developmental year, but there was reason to believe he still had good upside. LaVine was a guy with obvious star potential that just needed to get healthy. #7 pick in the draft probably wasn't expected to yield all that much, low end starter type guy was probably a reasonable guess what you'd get out of it. #16 was probably projected as a low end rotation guy.

3: The Bulls context is they really have nothing around them and no immediate way to make the team better. They've won 40ish games for a few years now and fans are sick of the treadmill, they need to make a big leap forward and probably can't do so around Jimmy in the following year and maybe or maybe not the year after that. There is a threat he will leave or a threat you will have to pay him 40M to stay, and again, at that point he looks like a low run all-star not worth 40M.

What happens after the trade:
1: Jimmy's stock as an individual continues to rise.
2: Dunn's stock after an initial boost goes to zero.
3: Zach's stock probably ends up a bit higher than it was.
4: Lauri ends up about where you'd expect (after an initial boost where he looks like a big win is now about where you'd think).

After a year, this trade still looks good for the Bulls, and probably really bad for the Wolves, whom now have Butler demanding out and get even less for him than they gave up which is also a sign that Butler's value has decreased and if the Bulls waited to trade later they would have ended up with even less.

Butler leaves the team that trades for him in a S&T, and so the Bulls may have ended up in the same boat had they kept Butler and had to trade him, which would have also still gotten them less than they got at the time they actually traded him. Alternatively, they may have Butler on a 40M per year contract now, and they'd probably still have a tough time figuring out how to win.

Butler is on his 3rd team since the Bulls, and only the 3rd team has found a way to make it really work so far, and that team wasn't permitted to sign him to the supermax so didn't have our downside.

With all that said, the question then becomes what would the Bulls be had they kept Butler instead of trading him? I think history shows this:
1: The Bulls got better value when they traded him than Minnesota or Philly did when they traded him, so the opportunity to trade him for more later did not appear to exist. Ie, the Bulls got as much value in a trade as they could have expected to get.

2: The Bulls still didn't have a path forward that looks like it would have led to more than the 40ish win performance they had with Butler and this wasn't a path fans wanted to go down.

The Bulls mistake IMO was not in trading Butler, but in not aggressively tanking when they did trade him and not aggressively trying to get more picks to rebuild with. We didn't even mean to tank for a single year, but we ended up tanking for two years. When you decided to go with this rebuild, you should have committed hard to it instead of trying to immediately rebuild into an average team. If you wanted the average team you could have just stuck with Butler.

In the end, with 2017 information, I would still make that trade, but I would have had drastically different follow up actions philosophically. I would have committed to being bad and ended up with a top 5 pick in 2018 (by being one of the worst 2 teams) and would have likely had something similar in 2019 (unless I drafted Doncic in 2018 whom would have single handedly stopped that from happening).
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#138 » by Ice Man » Wed Sep 9, 2020 3:28 pm

Side note, but Butler is currently sitting on a 64% TS% for the 2020 playoffs, which is damn high. For comparison's sake, Kawhi was 61% last year and 62% this year, admittedly on higher volume.

Speaking of which, Jimmy Butler comes up as the all-time most similar player to The Claw with basketball reference's similarity score, and the same holds in reverse, as Kawhi shows up as the most similar to Butler.

Although it should be noted that basketball reference doesn't score similarity the way that most people would think about doing so, that is guys playing the same position with similar stats. Rather, the similarity score is given by comparing Win Shares across various regular seasons. Basically, it says that these two guys have had similar levels of regular-season contributions over their careers. Not that they have necessarily gone about it the same way, but they ended up helping their teams by similar amounts.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#139 » by chefo » Wed Sep 9, 2020 4:54 pm

The FO were quite simply too blind to see the forest for the trees and focused on Jimmy's rebellious personality rather than the fact that he was one of the best 2-way wings in the entire NBA.

That, and he publicly called out first Hoiberg and the Future (Jerian, Bobby, Denzel, Doug, Cam) for not caring enough to be great or just plain sucking. As it turns out, Hoiberg was a dud, and the younglings were mostly utter trash that had no place on a playoff roster. But, by doing these things, in the FO's minds, they probably felt Jimmy embarrassed them... in public, which was a double No-No.

So, they then figured out Jimmy will command $30M+ pretty soon and off he went. If you remember, I was kinda' furious because it seemed that the Bulls were throwing away the present for insanely low odds of the future. Jimmy was gone because he couldn't beat a 1 seed with Rondo going down mid-series and them getting rid of our best defensive big (Taj) mid-season. So... we'll trust our franchise in the hands of the biggest group of meh ever assembled by a Bulls FO the next year. But...we'll get Niko back, and keep Rolo. Niko then just went super nova... which combined with Lauri playing really well as a rook, should have made them just salivate about having a pair of flame-throwing front court players making a total of $20M for awhile. Instead, Niko got shipped for a shyte asset, and Rolo got benched AFTER they had destroyed the tank. Just pure genius!

Anyhow, Rondo, Jimmy, Niko and somebody like Taj, Rolo and/or Collins/BAM and a couple of quality role players like Holiday probably means deep playoff runs in the East, and that is if Jimmy couldn't convince anybody else to come play with him.
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Re: How Good is Jimmy Butler? 

Post#140 » by beeshma » Wed Sep 9, 2020 5:07 pm

Bandit King wrote:WHy you guys still crying for Jimmy Butler no one crying for Derrick Rose anymore? Live in the future!!! Bulls have a decent front office and A decent coach will help Lavine reach his potential.


I'm a Bulls fan of course. But what happened to me is that I found out I was a Joakim Noah, Derick Rose, Jimmy Butler, and Tom Thibodeau fan.

With Butler and Thibs, it made me a Wolves fan.

With Butler, it made me a Philly fan, and now a Heat fan.

With Rose, Noah, I didn't become fans of their new teams, just fan of the players.

So there's something really special about being a Jimmy Butler fan, where I start to like the new team that he is on.

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