2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[bad knees]

Are we over-thinking this? Deni is basically an all-around intangibles forward in the mold of Artunas himself, with worse shooting. Artunas is also on record: he likes team-flow and passing. Deni can bring the ball up off a rebound and run point, without hogging usage. There are the two questions about athleticism (particularly lateral movement) and shooting, but neither is an outright flag as much as a gray area - you can make a decent argument that Deni ends up being the best 3P shooter in the top-7, as absurd as that sounds. Edwards, Ball, obviously Wiseman and Okongwu, Okoro, and Hayes aren’t proven 3P shooters either. Meanwhile his IQ, passing, fundamentals, length and handles are all good; his touch around the rim is also pretty good. If he solidifies his form and gets reps in, with open looks? I can see Hayes, Ball and Edwards struggling to shoot over 30% from the arc.

Anything can happen, but it would be really weird for Hayes to not eventually develop a 3P shot. He shoots about 87-88% from the FT line, that's already a top 15 FT shooter in the NBA, almost all of the top 15 FT shooters are good 3P shooters as well, the worst being Brogdon who is still a legit shooter. A lot of elite shooters in that group, like Middleton & Booker.

Rose sticks out as an elite FT shooter and poor 3P shooter, but I think this is really a case of focusing on his driving game as he developed over a jump shot.

Everyone in the top 4 has a lot of risk obviously given what little we know, but I would say Hayes' eventual 3P shooting is one of the least risky developments.

I think it's time for me to come back in with some facts on Hayes and his puzzling 29% 3 pt percentage. He is absolutely elite at shooting 3's off the dribble, especially with his stepback. Last year he shot 3's at a 42% clip off the dribble - truly outstanding, and the most difficult shot in the game. On the other hand, he shot only 18% on catch and shoot 3's - abysmal, and truly confounding given his ability at the FT line and off the dribble. Here's a link with these stats (which are for his whole season - sometimes you see someone saying that he shot 39% on 3's, but that was only for the Eurocup). https://in.nba.com/news/nba-draft-2020-killian-hayes-scouting-report-strengths-weaknesses-and-player-comparison/m71jtfjtighmzh5yepae4tj2

So how to solve this conundrum? Watch tape of Hayes shooting catch-and-shoot 3's. His feet are absolutely horrendous, both as he prepares to receive the pass, and also when he shoots. He's got this weird, Dunn-like half step as he shoots, which takes him off balance. As a result, when he lands, it often is with one foot crossed over the other. On other catch and shoot opportunities, he ends up landing with his legs splayed out. Bad, bad. Here's a video that highlights this. Go to 5:00.

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_logo

He's also weak with his right hand, as others have stated.

To me, both of these problems are fixable with good coaching. It's one of the reasons I like Hayes among all the flawed prospects.
His elite skills at playmaking/passing/stepbacks give him great potential as a lead guard prospect in today's NBA.

[TheSuzerain]

Tier 1: Elite overall talent and reasonably likely to achieve their upside

1. Okongwu - Elite physical profile as there aren't a lot of guys with his combination of height/wingspan/explosion/coordination who haven't gone on to NBA success. Seemingly has great intangibles as his motor appears to be great, and he's willing to make the small "winning" plays. Consistently shows coordination/touch which signals a higher skill ceiling than he's credited with. Reasonably close to Bam physically and far out-performed Bam's freshman year. That seems like a great prospect to me.

2. Hayes - He has a very straightforward path to being a plus-starter in the NBA. If you can pass the ball on the move and are a threat to hit the pull-up/step-back three, you are a plus offensive player by default. He has clearly shown the potential for that as that is literally the role he played on his German team. Lack of burst can be offset with his change-of-pace and deft handling, but it probably does lower his absolute ceiling as a player. He's still #2 for me.

Tier 2: Elite overall talent with intangible concerns (i.e. unlikely to reach full potential)

3. Edwards - Excellent physical profile and clearly looks the part of an NBA star guard/wing. He's not a zero skill-wise as he showed some ball-handling, passing, and shooting ability (especially the pull-up). He has the tools of a #1 pick, but it's unclear if he has the tool-box. Will he play hard? Will he understand how to translate his talent into efficiency? This is a risky pick, but the upside demands he goes top 3 imo.

4. Wiseman - Mammoth frame and wingspan, but being a huge 7 ft + dude isn't what it used to be. Really is reminiscent of Whiteside physically. In terms of intangibles and skill, I would say the comparison isn't off-the-mark either, but Wiseman is young. Obviously the hope is that he develops those aspects in the pro's better than Whiteside has. He is a physical outlier which has some accompanying upside. I think he's top 5 worthy based on that.

Tier 3: Elite traits with question marks

5. Pokusevki - Extremely agile/fluid 7-footer. Does not look normal when he moves at his height as he's able to mimic the movement patterns of much shorter players. Shows passing and handling talent. Shows movement shooting talent. He's a bean-pole who hasn't played top competition. Very obvious talent and that puts him at #5.

6. Ball - He has Lavar to thank for being this good as playing up in age all those years forced him to develop his handling and passing skills. Now, he's caught up a bit physically with this size and should continue to get stronger. He is a tall playmaker with handles which is a proven archetype. I don't think the shot is a lost cause, but I just don't see how you can project him to get much above 35-37% from 3. I also don't see him being able to break down defenses and live at the line as he's not that explosive. Can still end up a plus-player offensively but most of that value will come from his passing.

7. Haliburton - Really is more similar to Lonzo than Lamelo is. He has the elite vision/passing but has not shown to be much of a scoring threat off the bounce which would limit his upside. However, his overall trajectory is intriguing as he has taken major strides the last couple of years (Freshman > Team USA > Soph). I think there is sneaky upside here because of that, and I think his physical profile/athleticism gets underrated a bit with his massive wingspan. He seems safe with sneaky upside to me if his improvement trajectory continues.

Tier 3: The herd - solid prospects that probably end up rotation players

8. Vassell - Good shooter. 4th/5th man on offense and good defender.
9. Toppin - Can be a top 3 scoring option but will need to be set-up. Seemingly bad defender at a position where that can hurt.
10. Deni - Overall solid. Good open court athlete and shows vision/IQ. Needs to develop in a lot of areas to reach NBA competency, but they all seem attainable.
11. Patrick Williams - Plus athlete with a good motor who should shoot well enough to stick
12. Okoro- Plus athlete with a good motor. Should be a good defender. Offense is risky but could become solid as a shooter/slasher.

[MrSparkle]

It’s been said and discussed a hundred times, but 99% of sub-20yos don’t play in high-stakes Euroleague games. Luka was an exception.

The fact that Deni went on to play a 15-25 mpg role after the first few weeks, means he did more than most 19yo Euro players. Also reminder that Euro games are 40 minutes, so that’s a significant stat hit. If you look at his per-36, they’re ok stats for a young prospect playing 5th fiddle in a old pro league.

I think his FT rate might be a bit misleading too. When you hoist 1.9 FTAs a game, low sample size, it’s not exactly a death sentence if you shoot 55%. College players will have much more favorable foul calls vs 19yos in leagues with respected 30-35yo veterans, so the FT rate is another question to investigate.

I’m not gaga for Deni- just making sense of him in this questionable draft.

One thing about Hayes — he did rack his stats in Eurocup , not Euroleague. The B Teams, so to speak - lesser competition. Maccabi is a premier team, and Deni did come around to getting 1st option usage in the domestic league. And again, his performance was pretty encouraging, thus the reason he’s been projected as high as #2 on some expert’s draft boards — not mine (save me the light-headed graze). Hayes’ performance was against worse competition.

Hayes’ FT% is very impressive but for a PG, his speed is my hang-up. I like fast guards - if they’re not fast, I hope they’re 3P assassins. He might become one, but he isn’t one. But he is interesting - Crafty and good passer.

For comparison, 17yo LaMelo joined a Lithuanian club that couldn’t even qualify for Eurocup, and he barely averaged 10mpg. Euro league isn’t NCAA.

[arusinov]

It’s been said and discussed a hundred times, but 99% of sub-20yos don’t play in high-stakes Euroleague games. Luka was an exception.

The fact that Deni went on to play a 15-25 mpg role after the first few weeks, means he did more than most 19yo Euro players. Also reminder that Euro games are 40 minutes, so that’s a significant stat hit. If you look at his per-36, they’re ok stats for a young prospect playing 5th fiddle in a old pro league.

I think his FT rate might be a bit misleading too. When you hoist 1.9 FTAs a game, low sample size, it’s not exactly a death sentence if you shoot 55%. College players will have much more favorable foul calls vs 19yos in leagues with respected 30-35yo veterans, so the FT rate is another question to investigate.

I’m not gaga for Deni- just making sense of him in this questionable draft.

One thing about Hayes — he did rack his stats in Eurocup , not Euroleague. The B Teams, so to speak - lesser competition. Maccabi is a premier team, and Deni did come around to getting 1st option usage in the domestic league. And again, his performance was pretty encouraging, thus the reason he’s been projected as high as #2 on some expert’s draft boards — not mine (save me the light-headed graze). Hayes’ performance was against worse competition.

Hayes’ FT% is very impressive but for a PG, his speed is my hang-up. I like fast guards - if they’re not fast, I hope they’re 3P assassins. He might become one, but he isn’t one. But he is interesting - Crafty and good passer.

For comparison, 17yo LaMelo joined a Lithuanian club that couldn’t even qualify for Eurocup, and he barely averaged 10mpg. Euro league isn’t NCAA.

Main problem with Hayes stats is not even that it's from EuroCup (while the level's gap which was always quite wide became wider now with FIBA "Champions league" succeeding to lure more European 2nd tier teams)... The problem is that Ulm was the very worst team in EuroCup which finished group stage 1W / 9L so most Ulm's games there were basically tournament "garbage time". His best game with 25 pts, 5/7 3P was against other bottom-5 EuroCup team Maccabi Rishon LeZion when both were already eliminated from competition, and this game 17 years old Noam Dovrat (probably 2022 2nd rounder) started and played over 25 minutes for Rishon-LeZion. The fact Hayes shoot just 23% 3P in G-BBL where probably defenders at least tried... I think is alarming.

Speaking about Deni - total disregard of his performance in I-BSL is just crazy... I don't know why people bother to look NCAA stats of other prospects if they don't want to look I-BSL stats of Avdija? While I-BSL is not one of best league in Europe it's still better than any NCAA conference...

To explain about the level: this year 4 guys from I-BSL after several seasons went to look for opportunities in France and Italy (and their league while weaker than ACB and VTB are among best in Europe)

Rafi Menco posted 13.4 / 5.3 / 1.9 for Eilat in I-BSL, this year he started all 4 first games for Chalon-Sur-Saone and has averages 11.3/ 5.5 / 2.3 in French league
Tomer Ginat had 15.2 / 6.3 / 2.6 for Hapoel Tel-Aviv, this year he plays for Boulogne-Levallois which is one of best teams in French league, his stats in French League + EuroCup (6 starts in 7 games) are 11.4 / 5.3 / 2.0
TJ Cline - American-Israeli which last year had 12.9 / 6.4 / 3.1 in I-BSL for Holon plays now in EuroCup and Italian Lega A. His stats in 6 games (4 starts) are 10.7 / 4.0/ 2.3

So those 3 guys while experiences some small decrease in productivity seem to do just fine in France in Italy.

The only one which struggles is Itay Segev which has just 3.8 / 3.5 / 0.5 for BCM Gravelines but he was the least productive in I-BSL too with for 8.8 / 6.3 / 0.9 for weak Ironi Nahariya which finished 11 of 12 teams in I-BSL... and he's also just not skilled player which relied mostly on his athleticism and experience in the specific league.

[Lexluthor]

It’s been said and discussed a hundred times, but 99% of sub-20yos don’t play in high-stakes Euroleague games. Luka was an exception.

The fact that Deni went on to play a 15-25 mpg role after the first few weeks, means he did more than most 19yo Euro players. Also reminder that Euro games are 40 minutes, so that’s a significant stat hit. If you look at his per-36, they’re ok stats for a young prospect playing 5th fiddle in a old pro league.

I think his FT rate might be a bit misleading too. When you hoist 1.9 FTAs a game, low sample size, it’s not exactly a death sentence if you shoot 55%. College players will have much more favorable foul calls vs 19yos in leagues with respected 30-35yo veterans, so the FT rate is another question to investigate.

I’m not gaga for Deni- just making sense of him in this questionable draft.

One thing about Hayes — he did rack his stats in Eurocup , not Euroleague. The B Teams, so to speak - lesser competition. Maccabi is a premier team, and Deni did come around to getting 1st option usage in the domestic league. And again, his performance was pretty encouraging, thus the reason he’s been projected as high as #2 on some expert’s draft boards — not mine (save me the light-headed graze). Hayes’ performance was against worse competition.

Hayes’ FT% is very impressive but for a PG, his speed is my hang-up. I like fast guards - if they’re not fast, I hope they’re 3P assassins. He might become one, but he isn’t one. But he is interesting - Crafty and good passer.

For comparison, 17yo LaMelo joined a Lithuanian club that couldn’t even qualify for Eurocup, and he barely averaged 10mpg. Euro league isn’t NCAA.

But College Basketball has produce more great in the NBA than the Euroleague.

[PlayerUp]

2021 draft is not only loaded with wings but there are players with star potential.

Projected to be better but who knows. Could end up being overrated and many of them struggle. It's still very early to engage how good the 2021 draft class will be and the 2022 draft class could even be better since high school prospects will now be able to declare for the draft again.

[PlayerUp]

Are we over-thinking this? Deni is basically an all-around intangibles forward in the mold of Artunas himself, with worse shooting. Artunas is also on record: he likes team-flow and passing. Deni can bring the ball up off a rebound and run point, without hogging usage. There are the two questions about athleticism (particularly lateral movement) and shooting, but neither is an outright flag as much as a gray area - you can make a decent argument that Deni ends up being the best 3P shooter in the top-7, as absurd as that sounds. Edwards, Ball, obviously Wiseman and Okongwu, Okoro, and Hayes aren’t proven 3P shooters either. Meanwhile his IQ, passing, fundamentals, length and handles are all good; his touch around the rim is also pretty good. If he solidifies his form and gets reps in, with open looks? I can see Hayes, Ball and Edwards struggling to shoot over 30% from the arc.

Dude, you aren't describing a top prospect. It honestly feels like people are trolling with the Deni love. The guy is plainly not an elite prospect. He's a Dario Saric level talent.

You want to draft the guy who is "good" at most things but has lateral movement and shooting questions? Really? At #4? Are you feeling light-headed?

This.

There is nothing about Deni that is elite. The all around intangibles he has make me believe his ceiling at best is a role player may not even end up being a starter in the league. Factor in the majority of Euro prospects end up poorly transitioning to the NBA and you have a prospect that has a role player ceiling that have a high risk of not transitioning well.

People are saying we should take the BPA at #4. I agree. Deni is not the BPA available at #4 in my opinion and would probably go in the late lottery mid 1st round in other drafts.

[PlayerUp]

It’s been said and discussed a hundred times, but 99% of sub-20yos don’t play in high-stakes Euroleague games. Luka was an exception.

The fact that Deni went on to play a 15-25 mpg role after the first few weeks, means he did more than most 19yo Euro players. Also reminder that Euro games are 40 minutes, so that’s a significant stat hit. If you look at his per-36, they’re ok stats for a young prospect playing 5th fiddle in a old pro league.

I think his FT rate might be a bit misleading too. When you hoist 1.9 FTAs a game, low sample size, it’s not exactly a death sentence if you shoot 55%. College players will have much more favorable foul calls vs 19yos in leagues with respected 30-35yo veterans, so the FT rate is another question to investigate.

I’m not gaga for Deni- just making sense of him in this questionable draft.

One thing about Hayes — he did rack his stats in Eurocup , not Euroleague. The B Teams, so to speak - lesser competition. Maccabi is a premier team, and Deni did come around to getting 1st option usage in the domestic league. And again, his performance was pretty encouraging, thus the reason he’s been projected as high as #2 on some expert’s draft boards — not mine (save me the light-headed graze). Hayes’ performance was against worse competition.

Hayes’ FT% is very impressive but for a PG, his speed is my hang-up. I like fast guards - if they’re not fast, I hope they’re 3P assassins. He might become one, but he isn’t one. But he is interesting - Crafty and good passer.

For comparison, 17yo LaMelo joined a Lithuanian club that couldn’t even qualify for Eurocup, and he barely averaged 10mpg. Euro league isn’t NCAA.

Main problem with Hayes stats is not even that it's from EuroCup (while the level's gap which was always quite wide became wider now with FIBA "Champions league" succeeding to lure more European 2nd tier teams)... The problem is that Ulm was the very worst team in EuroCup which finished group stage 1W / 9L so most Ulm's games there were basically tournament "garbage time". His best game with 25 pts, 5/7 3P was against other bottom-5 EuroCup team Maccabi Rishon LeZion when both were already eliminated from competition, and this game 17 years old Noam Dovrat (probably 2022 2nd rounder) started and played over 25 minutes for Rishon-LeZion. The fact Hayes shoot just 23% 3P in G-BBL where probably defenders at least tried... I think is alarming.

Speaking about Deni - total disregard of his performance in I-BSL is just crazy... I don't know why people bother to look NCAA stats of other prospects if they don't want to look I-BSL stats of Avdija? While I-BSL is not one of best league in Europe it's still better than any NCAA conference...

To explain about the level: this year 4 guys from I-BSL after several seasons went to look for opportunities in France and Italy (and their league while weaker than ACB and VTB are among best in Europe)

Rafi Menco posted 13.4 / 5.3 / 1.9 for Eilat in I-BSL, this year he started all 4 first games for Chalon-Sur-Saone and has averages 11.3/ 5.5 / 2.3 in French league
Tomer Ginat had 15.2 / 6.3 / 2.6 for Hapoel Tel-Aviv, this year he plays for Boulogne-Levallois which is one of best teams in French league, his stats in French League + EuroCup (6 starts in 7 games) are 11.4 / 5.3 / 2.0
TJ Cline - American-Israeli which last year had 12.9 / 6.4 / 3.1 in I-BSL for Holon plays now in EuroCup and Italian Lega A. His stats in 6 games (4 starts) are 10.7 / 4.0/ 2.3

So those 3 guys while experiences some small decrease in productivity seem to do just fine in France in Italy.

The only one which struggles is Itay Segev which has just 3.8 / 3.5 / 0.5 for BCM Gravelines but he was the least productive in I-BSL too with for 8.8 / 6.3 / 0.9 for weak Ironi Nahariya which finished 11 of 12 teams in I-BSL... and he's also just not skilled player which relied mostly on his athleticism and experience in the specific league.

Killian Hayes team struggled in the Eurocup but played far better in the German Cup and German BBL. They were 10-10 in the German BBL which is a better league than Denis. Team made it to the semifinals.

Hayes averaged

11.6 PPG
5.3 APG
49% FG
85.2% FT
21.8% 3PT
15.8 PER

Just turned 18.

During the German Cup, Hayes played less minutes and put up 7.33 PPG, 3.7 APG, 50% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 100% FT.

[Almost Retired]

I like reading the analysis on this thread. We can debate until we start discussing who we are going to take with #7 in 2021. I think Wiseman will be gone. He is just too good a physical specimen for Golden State to pass up. Especially with them having to deal with Anthony Davis and Jokic. I'm not sold on Edwards, Toppin or Ball. I think if I'm AK and he's on the board I'm taking Deni. I've read all the rasons he might not pan out. Those are legitimate concerns.

But I look at how a guy might be able to mesh with the current roster. I'm not an advocate of BPA and sort it out later. I think you build a team with a blueprint. Pieces have to fit together. It is a team sport. That being said, Deni could be an intriguing fit for us. We can expect plenty of scoring from our backcourt, but not enough playmaking. We have big men with potential, but they have suffered from poor offensive designs by Boylen, and a lack of playmaking from 1-3. Add Deni to the mix. He's only 19. He's pretty well put together for his age. 6-8' or 6-9", about 220 lbs. He lacks definition but an NBA diet and weight training could improve his core strength, explosiveness off the jump, and lateral quickness to some degree. His work ethic has been commended by commentators. He will have trouble defending elite Sfs, but Donovan can scheme up fixes around that. (He coached a 3 guard lineup to defend pretty well.) There is some potential at the defensive end with good player development coupled with the kid's work ethic. But is he pans out think of what he adds. A tall playmaker at the 3 or a guy capable of being a small ball 4 against certain matchups. He can run in transition and see over defenders in the half court. He would have to option to find a big man, kick back to a guard or try scoring on his own. He might never be a Steph or Trae from 3 but we would not need that from him. Just an occasional 3 to keep defenses honest.

And if the gamble on Deni doesn't work out next year's Draft is so loaded with quality wings that we an try again to fill this position of need. But I say take the chance. Deni might be better than some expect. And he'd have a year to learn the NBA game from OPJ and work on his body and his game. We don't need him to start on Day #1. We have OPJ on a contract year. He's liable to stay healthy and perform well in anticipation of getting another good contract here or elsewhere after the season.

[Almost Retired]

I like reading the analysis on this thread. We can debate until we start discussing who we are going to take with #7 in 2021. I think Wiseman will be gone. He is just too good a physical specimen for Golden State to pass up. Especially with them having to deal with Anthony Davis and Jokic. I'm not sold on Edwards, Toppin or Ball. I think if I'm AK and he's on the board I'm taking Deni. I've read all the rasons he might not pan out. Those are legitimate concerns.

But I look at how a guy might be able to mesh with the current roster. I'm not an advocate of BPA and sort it out later. I think you build a team with a blueprint. Pieces have to fit together. It is a team sport. That being said, Deni could be an intriguing fit for us. We can expect plenty of scoring from our backcourt, but not enough playmaking. We have big men with potential, but they have suffered from poor offensive designs by Boylen, and a lack of playmaking from 1-3. Add Deni to the mix. He's only 19. He's pretty well put together for his age. 6-8' or 6-9", about 220 lbs. He lacks definition but an NBA diet and weight training could improve his core strength, explosiveness off the jump, and lateral quickness to some degree. His work ethic has been commended by commentators. He will have trouble defending elite Sfs, but Donovan can scheme up fixes around that. (He coached a 3 guard lineup to defend pretty well.) There is some potential at the defensive end with good player development coupled with the kid's work ethic. But if he pans out think of what he adds. A tall playmaker at the 3 or a guy capable of being a small ball 4 against certain matchups. He can run in transition and see over defenders in the half court. He would have to option to find a big man, kick back to a guard or try scoring on his own. He might never be a Steph or Trae from 3 but we would not need that from him. Just an occasional 3 to keep defenses honest.

And if the gamble on Deni doesn't work out next year's Draft is so loaded with quality wings that we an try again to fill this position of need. But I say take the chance. Deni might be better than some expect. And he'd have a year to learn the NBA game from OPJ and work on his body and his game. We don't need him to start on Day #1. We have OPJ on a contract year. He's liable to stay healthy and perform well in anticipation of getting another good contract here or elsewhere after the season.

[gobullschi]

And if the gamble on Deni doesn't work out next year's Draft is so loaded with quality wings that we an try again to fill this position of need. But I say take the chance. Deni might be better than some expect. And he'd have a year to learn the NBA game from OPJ and work on his body and his game. We don't need him to start on Day #1. We have OPJ on a contract year. He's liable to stay healthy and perform well in anticipation of getting another good contract here or elsewhere after the season.

You’re assuming the Bulls will be in a position to select one of the wings. The Bulls already lucked out with the season cutting short while all the starters were out with injuries.

I don’t see the Bulls in the lottery next season. The starters will be healthy, they have a legit NBA coach, SOME player development, and a top 5 draft pick. Bulls need to hit on this pick or they might end up in NBA purgatory. (First round playoff exit each year)

[Southpaw]

Killian Hayes is growing on me as a prospect. I'm not saying he's gonna be as good but does anyone else think he's comparable to Harden pre-draft? Same size, almost the same set of strengths and weaknesses.

[gobullschi]

Killian Hayes is growing on me as a prospect. I'm not saying he's gonna be as good but does anyone else think he's comparable to Harden pre-draft? Same size, almost the same set of strengths and weaknesses.

Hayes has a very nice step back jumper which is why the Harden comp gets thrown out there. Stylistically, there are some similarities to their game. But Harden is a far superior athlete in every metric. Hayes athleticism is between Kirk Hinrich and Spencer Dinwiddie (slightly above average). He’s a better passer than both those guys though.

Personally, I think the Hayes - Chicago link is being fabricated to entice Detroit, Phoenix, or New York to trade up. He’s not really a good ‘fit’ and doesn’t have the upside as other prospects that will be available at 4. Bulls NEED a home run with this pick. Although Hayes’ free throw percent is an encouraging sign, those athletic limitations are going to limit his ceiling.

[Southpaw]

Killian Hayes is growing on me as a prospect. I'm not saying he's gonna be as good but does anyone else think he's comparable to Harden pre-draft? Same size, almost the same set of strengths and weaknesses.

Hayes has a very nice step back jumper which is why the Harden comp gets thrown out there. Stylistically, there are some similarities to their game. But Harden is a far superior athlete in every metric. Hayes athleticism is between Kirk Hinrich and Spencer Dinwiddie (slightly above average). He’s a better passer than both those guys though.

Personally, I think the Hayes - Chicago link is being fabricated to entice Detroit, Phoenix, or New York to trade up. He’s not really a good ‘fit’ and doesn’t have the upside as other prospects that will be available at 4. Bulls NEED a home run with this pick. Although Hayes’ free throw percent is an encouraging sign, those athletic limitations are going to limit his ceiling.

I remember Harden being tagged as unathletic pre-draft but I always thought that was wrong because I always saw him as a decent athlete with good-great handles and the reason why he was seen as such is because of his physique.

If Hayes is that unatheltic, that would be a problem unless he develops as a knock down 3pt shooter, which I guess is possible given his excellent free throw shooting. Agreeing that we do need a homerun pick but I feel like it's also as important to hit on this pick because we after a couple of tanking years, we still doesn't have a signature player.

[PlayerUp]

Bulls NEED a home run with this pick. Although Hayes’ free throw percent is an encouraging sign, those athletic limitations are going to limit his ceiling.

They do but none of the international prospects from my perspective look like home run picks. There are several NCAA prospects which have high ceilings.

Tier 1: Elite overall talent and reasonably likely to achieve their upside

1. Okongwu - Elite physical profile as there aren't a lot of guys with his combination of height/wingspan/explosion/coordination who haven't gone on to NBA success. Seemingly has great intangibles as his motor appears to be great, and he's willing to make the small "winning" plays. Consistently shows coordination/touch which signals a higher skill ceiling than he's credited with. Reasonably close to Bam physically and far out-performed Bam's freshman year. That seems like a great prospect to me.

2. Hayes - He has a very straightforward path to being a plus-starter in the NBA. If you can pass the ball on the move and are a threat to hit the pull-up/step-back three, you are a plus offensive player by default. He has clearly shown the potential for that as that is literally the role he played on his German team. Lack of burst can be offset with his change-of-pace and deft handling, but it probably does lower his absolute ceiling as a player. He's still #2 for me.

Tier 2: Elite overall talent with intangible concerns (i.e. unlikely to reach full potential)

3. Edwards - Excellent physical profile and clearly looks the part of an NBA star guard/wing. He's not a zero skill-wise as he showed some ball-handling, passing, and shooting ability (especially the pull-up). He has the tools of a #1 pick, but it's unclear if he has the tool-box. Will he play hard? Will he understand how to translate his talent into efficiency? This is a risky pick, but the upside demands he goes top 3 imo.

4. Wiseman - Mammoth frame and wingspan, but being a huge 7 ft + dude isn't what it used to be. Really is reminiscent of Whiteside physically. In terms of intangibles and skill, I would say the comparison isn't off-the-mark either, but Wiseman is young. Obviously the hope is that he develops those aspects in the pro's better than Whiteside has. He is a physical outlier which has some accompanying upside. I think he's top 5 worthy based on that.

Tier 3: Elite traits with question marks

5. Pokusevki - Extremely agile/fluid 7-footer. Does not look normal when he moves at his height as he's able to mimic the movement patterns of much shorter players. Shows passing and handling talent. Shows movement shooting talent. He's a bean-pole who hasn't played top competition. Very obvious talent and that puts him at #5.

6. Ball - He has Lavar to thank for being this good as playing up in age all those years forced him to develop his handling and passing skills. Now, he's caught up a bit physically with this size and should continue to get stronger. He is a tall playmaker with handles which is a proven archetype. I don't think the shot is a lost cause, but I just don't see how you can project him to get much above 35-37% from 3. I also don't see him being able to break down defenses and live at the line as he's not that explosive. Can still end up a plus-player offensively but most of that value will come from his passing.

7. Haliburton - Really is more similar to Lonzo than Lamelo is. He has the elite vision/passing but has not shown to be much of a scoring threat off the bounce which would limit his upside. However, his overall trajectory is intriguing as he has taken major strides the last couple of years (Freshman > Team USA > Soph). I think there is sneaky upside here because of that, and I think his physical profile/athleticism gets underrated a bit with his massive wingspan. He seems safe with sneaky upside to me if his improvement trajectory continues.

Tier 3: The herd - solid prospects that probably end up rotation players

8. Vassell - Good shooter. 4th/5th man on offense and good defender.
9. Toppin - Can be a top 3 scoring option but will need to be set-up. Seemingly bad defender at a position where that can hurt.
10. Deni - Overall solid. Good open court athlete and shows vision/IQ. Needs to develop in a lot of areas to reach NBA competency, but they all seem attainable.
11. Patrick Williams - Plus athlete with a good motor who should shoot well enough to stick
12. Okoro- Plus athlete with a good motor. Should be a good defender. Offense is risky but could become solid as a shooter/slasher.

I would add Terry (shooting), Nesmith (shooting) and Lewis (dynamic scoring/speed) to your tier 3 elite traits. These are 3 prospects that have ceilings to be incredible scorers in the NBA if the reach their ceilings. Certainly at least 1 of them is going to blow up in the NBA.

[PhilLeotardo]

And if the gamble on Deni doesn't work out next year's Draft is so loaded with quality wings that we an try again to fill this position of need. But I say take the chance. Deni might be better than some expect. And he'd have a year to learn the NBA game from OPJ and work on his body and his game. We don't need him to start on Day #1. We have OPJ on a contract year. He's liable to stay healthy and perform well in anticipation of getting another good contract here or elsewhere after the season.

You’re assuming the Bulls will be in a position to select one of the wings. The Bulls already lucked out with the season cutting short while all the starters were out with injuries.

I don’t see the Bulls in the lottery next season. The starters will be healthy, they have a legit NBA coach, SOME player development, and a top 5 draft pick. Bulls need to hit on this pick or they might end up in NBA purgatory. (First round playoff exit each year)

I just don’t see any way that that could happen re: purgatory. Under the totalitarian dictatorship, sure, and it would’ve happened on purpose, but not now. The Bulls have nowhere to go but up. The NBA doesn’t really work that way anymore, guys are developing faster than ever, at various points throughout their careers, and drafts are less predictable than ever. It isn’t about “hitting” on a draft pick. It’s about building a winning organization, through elite scouting, Fit, coaching, player development, training, personnel, etc. Teams that don’t have those things in place can have all the talent in the world, and it’ll rarely make a difference. The Bulls have literally never had any of that until very recently. Look at Phoenix, Minnesota, NYC, Charlotte, Detroit, the Lakers prior to Jeannie Buss taking over, etc etc etc.

There is no way the Bulls will ever enter any sort of NBA hell or purgatory going forward, those days are over. AKEVSDonovan would never allow that to happen, and there is no reason is would need to happen. A guy isn’t working out? Trade him, move on. Find someone deep in the draft, pluck some guy from the g-league, etc etc etc. AK always finds ways to win, compete, and be competitive. And on top of all of that, PaxGar are gone! They were, quite literally, the two main diseases that were keeping star players from coming to Chicago

Lol bulls fans are still stuck like cement in that PaxGar mindset. “Welp, better hope these draft picks ‘hit’, otherwise we’re screwed; it’s NBA hell from here on out. “Purgatory” isn’t a word used in the new regime’s collective vocabularies. People need to do their homework on Karnisovas’s work history. I’m surprised that everyone hasn’t already

[PhilLeotardo]

I really wish Karnisovas would just bite the bullet & take Poku at 4, but I know that’ll never happen. His upside is so intriguing, I’ll bet they’re racking their brains trying to figure out a way to snag him. Imo he has the highest ceiling in the draft, but ironically, also arguably the lowest floor

[Portiseyes]

As I’ve said before I think Hayes’ athletic woes are over blown... definitely a step above any Kirk type comp. His age closer to ‘21 freshman cohort and was leading a team of grown ass men! Given his youth and euro physical development I think he has a good chance to improve his explosiveness.

His game isn’t blow by quickness though and doesn’t nec need to be for his size and the superior skills and footwork he’s shown. Plus I see him having a basically genius level basketball IQ for his age, so he’s a step ahead processing the court and making decisions in the real time speed of intuition / feel (which when factored with his analytical abilities resembles something more like a notion of genius to me then simply ‘cerebral‘)... just my 2 cents.

But anyway... he doesn’t seem to need to blow by his man, just get him off-balance or to hard commit one way or the other. He does tend to lose control under heavy pressure so needs to work on better bail out maneuvers than the too often wild passes into traffic. And obviously he has to improve his right hand and rhythm / mechanics of his catch and shoot. Seems doable.

[PlayerUp]

I really wish Karnisovas would just bite the bullet & take Poku at 4, but I know that’ll never happen. His upside is so intriguing, I’ll bet they’re racking their brains trying to figure out a way to snag him. Imo he has the highest ceiling in the draft, but ironically, also arguably the lowest floor

Lets draft Poku 10+ picks higher than he is projected to go. Great use of our draft position.

[chitowndish]

I still really like Haliburton and maybe we'd trade down to get him but this guy just looks like a great skillset and size and I just like the way he looks running a team.

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