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Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision

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What was Pax's Biggest Draft Day Blunder?

Poll runs till Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:54 am

Trading Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas
31
32%
Trading our 16th and 19th picks in for McDermott (Nuggets picked Nurkic and Gary Harris)
35
36%
Trading Butler for LaVine, Markkanen and Dunn
10
10%
Picking James Johnson over Jrue Holiday
5
5%
Trading Hinrich and the 17th pick to open up a 2nd max slot (which wasn't used) instead of drafting Bledsoe, Bradley or Whiteside
1
1%
Picking Marquis Teague over Draymond Green and Middleton
6
6%
Picking Snell over Gobert
3
3%
Picking Valentine over Siakam, Brogdan, Dejounte Murray and LaVert
0
No votes
Picking Markkanen over Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo and John Collins
1
1%
Picking Wendell Carter over Shai-Gilageous Alexander and Michael Porter Jr.
5
5%
 
Total votes: 97

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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#21 » by Hold That » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:57 pm

McDermott trade was the turning point to where we are now. That trade literally set us back for two seasons..

Aldridge trade is the worse per value but as Doug said that needed to happen in order to get D Rose, and you could argue Butler as well. I really don’t hold anything against the old regime “pre DRose draft”..
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#22 » by TheSuzerain » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:59 pm

Teague is up there. Didn't they admit they hadn't really scouted him much and were just surprised he was available?
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#23 » by League Circles » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:37 pm

ATRAIN53 wrote:wow that list kinda proves he sucks at drafting - where all these years people have been praising them for drafting.

you can't blame him or predict who develops
it''s a crap shoot for almost everyone.

but the Tyrus Thomas thing is clearly his biggest mistake.

Kyle Lowry was 24th in that draft - and he's probably the only HOF from that class.

Rondo was 21st in that same draft and Playoff Rondo is a HOF guy too. (not regular season Rondo. I dunno how they induct on;y playoff Rondo but they have to figure out a way...)

But LMA was a no brainer #2 pick. Everyone was like Chicago finally gets a big man. I mean thay had to have had his jersey there, this pick was so obvious and they mucked it up.

He's STILL putting up 20 PPG
He doesn't take it to the rack like he should, but he would probably still be here putting up 20/10 and a fan favorite.

Meanwhile Tyrus Thomas last NBA bucket was 5 years ago.

I'm pretty sure more than half the fans on this board (including me) wanted Tyrus over LMA. LMA obviously turned out to be a better player but was never really a star that drove any high level winning in this league.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#24 » by ChettheJet » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:49 pm

Every year Aldridge plays makes it more obvious. The thing that makes it the worst for Pax is he went totally against what was his deeply held philosophy of drafting 3-4 year players from winning programs. Aldridge Texas 2 years 53 games Thomas 1 year LSU 21 games. The Bulls like so many years needed a basketball center, took the athlete.

To me it's not who they could have drafted instead who went later that year. It's how having Thomas just not ever starting to contribute meant they had to draft in the next 4-5 years because they got nothing in that draft. Plug Aldridge in and who they draft, trade or trade for goes on a very different path
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#25 » by pipfan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:14 pm

I was so happy when Jrue H fell out of the lottery-I saw him mocked as high as 4. Then, we picked JJ and he was picked next-that one hurt the most for me.
The TT/LMA was brutal, but I was for it so I can't complain.
I knew little about Doug, so I just believed the mock drafts

As someone mentioned, it's tough to evaluate a draft too widely. The DGreen/Teague one has legs, since our coaches wanted Green. But many of these would have been out of the blue
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#26 » by Fastbrk4brkfast » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:50 pm

dougthonus wrote:If a guy isn't within 2-3 picks of the guy taken, then its silly to call it a blunder. It's an unrealistic expectation and just opportunistic bashing that you could literally apply to any GM that's made more then 3-4 picks. That eliminates more than half this list. We can go through that same mental gymnastics and ask why the Warriors made such a huge blunder taking Festus Ezeeli over Draymond Green.

Of the things left, I voted McDermott trade, but taking it back, I'll say Aldridge trade. We forget how bad it was, because has we actually gotten Aldridge we probably wouldn't have ended up with Derrick Rose, but that's probably the biggest value swing. The Butler trade got us more value than Butler received in trade either of the next two times he was traded, so it doesn't look like there was likely to be a better offer in the future, so the decision to move on may or may not have been good, but the trade value wasn't bad relative to what the Wolves/76ers got.

Jrue Holiday is a reasonable comparison to James Johnson since he was the next pick. I was super high on Johnson, and with Rose, PG wasn't really a big concern, but man that would have been nice in retrospect. If you had Holiday filling in with Rose hurt this team could have really made some hey for a couple years and had a reasonable post Rose rebuild plan around Butler.


You know, as far as dominos falling Johnson over Holiday may well have been the biggest blunder. Having Holiday means we probably get Draymond which possibly means we keep Butler and Thibs into the post-Lebron eastern conference era. Then again Jrue's had his share of injuries too so who knows?
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#27 » by Fastbrk4brkfast » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:53 pm

List is pretty long already but I'm betting the promise to Chandler Hutchison would've gotten a few votes.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#28 » by Ugly Duckling » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:50 pm

dougthonus wrote:If a guy isn't within 2-3 picks of the guy taken, then its silly to call it a blunder. It's an unrealistic expectation and just opportunistic bashing that you could literally apply to any GM that's made more then 3-4 picks. That eliminates more than half this list. We can go through that same mental gymnastics and ask why the Warriors made such a huge blunder taking Festus Ezeeli over Draymond Green.

Of the things left, I voted McDermott trade, but taking it back, I'll say Aldridge trade. We forget how bad it was, because has we actually gotten Aldridge we probably wouldn't have ended up with Derrick Rose, but that's probably the biggest value swing. The Butler trade got us more value than Butler received in trade either of the next two times he was traded, so it doesn't look like there was likely to be a better offer in the future, so the decision to move on may or may not have been good, but the trade value wasn't bad relative to what the Wolves/76ers got.

Jrue Holiday is a reasonable comparison to James Johnson since he was the next pick. I was super high on Johnson, and with Rose, PG wasn't really a big concern, but man that would have been nice in retrospect. If you had Holiday filling in with Rose hurt this team could have really made some hey for a couple years and had a reasonable post Rose rebuild plan around Butler.


I disagree with this assertion. Sure, I mean even the best scout in the world would miss on picks. It's just too hard to accurately predict how a prospect's skills would translate on the big stage, along with his work ethic and development every time. Mindset is notoriously hard to evaluate because it's invisible. All that being said, these guys get paid millions of dollars to do this and spare no expense when it comes to evaluating players (travel, analytics, etc.). They have no other jobs like we do. So they have the time to really drill down on potential prospects that aren't being projected in the range that they're going to pick in. They also have more intel on these players, having scouted some of them since high school and knowing them personally. Some of us, with full-time jobs, have made better calls without ever seeing a prospect in person and just going off of the tape

*Also, I made it a point not to include picks that were way off, like drops in a pond, but to say they had to be just a few picks after to be considered a miss is silly imo
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#29 » by Ugly Duckling » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:24 pm

jumpman23j wrote:What about not drafting Michael Porter Jr? I know he had an injured back but I still would of gambled on him.


That was the last option. I didn't want to draft him at the time and was convinced it was the right decision when they revealed what the med report said (that he needed a second surgery). Like I said back then, the advantage of a discectomy is that you pretty much fully recover, so it was a smart decision for him. The thing is, people almost always have long term complications because the very structure of the spine is altered (thrown off balance). And a second surgery is not a good sign. Dwight was never the same player after his, and he doesn't rely on athleticism as much as MPJ. All that being said, MPJ looks good and has a very unique KD-like skillset, so let's hope he stays healthy
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#30 » by MrSparkle » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:24 pm

I was high on Jrue too. He seemed like a no-brainer. Combo guard who can split minutes with either Rose or Gordon. I was really low on Kirk. But the draft is the draft. I acknowledge it's a hit-or-miss game of drunken darts. The two trades take the cake for me:

1. McDermott - I like the idea of trading up for a "super-target," but to read Doug's potential (and floor) so poorly... more than half the board was like "Uhm - are we trading up for a Korver/Dunleavy successor?" 16/19 are good spots in a good draft; 12-16 is within range of Kawhi, Giannis, George, and these types of superstars. It really wasn't a surprise than Harris and Nurkic each individually had a better career than Doug. Not to mention that deadweight Randolph salary came and went in a dump with some more 2nd rd picks. I don't think Harris and Nurkic save the Bulls from their inevitable problems (Rose's and Noah's declines, Gar's ego and fall-out with Adams and Thibs, general roster decline besides Jimmy)... but who knows? We were looking at a 1-2 year contending window, it was a crucial off-season, and the biggest problems were zero two-way athletic wing depth after Jimmy, backup PG and a glut of declining 1-way big men.

2. Jimmy - I couldn't believe that Dunn, ACL rehab project, and a 16/7 swap in a 'deep' draft were the catch for a guy who had a statistically top-10 year and single-handedly carried the team to a .500 record (despite a bad coach, struggling role-players, bad prospects, bad 2nd option in declining Wade, injuries). I was very low on the trade. Lauri's Finland campaign and opening month made me more optimistic, but I also didn't like the PF glut. We went from 1 PF glut (Taj/Niko/Bobby not to mention RoLo and Felicio on big contracts) to another.

But really, the thing that got me with both trades, is just how many times can you make the same mistake with the prospect you chase? How many PGs with red-flags did it take?

Marquis Teague, Jerian Grant, MCW, Rondo, Payne, Dunn

Why did they continue taking PGs who either couldn't score, or they couldn't create? At a certain point, did they not consider "Let's stop taking these types of athletic 1-trick ponies and get a 3P-pass-dribble threat" ? PG/creator is the one position where you can take a defensive hit in favor of dominant offense.

And then they did the same (but opposite) thing with the PF position. How many 1-way PFs (or bigs in general) are you gonna take in a row? PF is the one position where you can NOT afford a defensive liability, and by 2014, you also could not afford an offensive liability there either.

Wallace, Tyrus, Noah, Taj, Boozer, Asik, Niko, Bobby, Lauri

It's kind of crazy. I felt like they completely flipped their understanding of what works in the NBA. They should've been searching for the Niko/Lauri/Bobby type prospect at PG (high-volume high-usage 3P shooter with defensive flaws), and the Dunn/MCW/Grant type prospect at PF (athletic ball-handler with defense).

And then to underestimate Butler's value.. The all-star two-way wing who had pretty much zero flaws other than a loud mouth and an unreliable 3P shot? Completely disregarded every championship roster from the last 30 years in their prospect targets. It was like they zoomed in on Randy Brown, Jud Buechler, Donyell Marshall for their desired draft profiles.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#31 » by Ugly Duckling » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:32 pm

Hold That wrote:McDermott trade was the turning point to where we are now. That trade literally set us back for two seasons..

Aldridge trade is the worse per value but as Doug said that needed to happen in order to get D Rose, and you could argue Butler as well. I really don’t hold anything against the old regime “pre DRose draft”..


Yeah but in hindsight, was Rose really a net positive for the franchise? I still have a wound from how all that played out which never fully healed. I mean if we were a good team, maybe we could've drafted Ibaka. Sure the probability of that is extremely low, but man we would've avoided a lot of pain
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#32 » by TheSuzerain » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:47 pm

My hot take is that the Tyrus selection wasn't that bad. He had an absolutely incredible freshman year.

It was more a failure in scouting the non-basketball things like work ethic/commitment rather than a misevaluation of his basketball talents.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#33 » by Ugly Duckling » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:11 pm

You guys have made some good cases for several of these and I'm a little surprised the Valentine pick didn't get more hate given 4 eventual starters (2 of them All Stars) were still on the board, but mine is probably the Snell pick. I remember being really high on Gobert before the draft. I mean his shot blocking, his length. He seemed like he had a really good feel for the game. And we really needed a C, although that should really factor into the decision. I'm surprised Gobert went so low, so obviously our FO wasn't the only one who missed it. They was hoping that Snell would turn into Kawhi because he went to the same high school :banghead:
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#34 » by Mech Engineer » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:14 pm

His biggest mistake is overvaluing his drafting skills and his inability to figure out a good PG or offensive players. His success is with defensive mindset players except for Derrick who was in a different draft cadre.

Picking McDermott killed whatever Thibs could have built as they put pressure on him to play an incompetent rookie and started the fracture.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#35 » by cool007 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:21 pm

IMO, the biggest mistake was to not trade and move up a couple of years ago when I really wanted 1 of Doncic/Trae Young.

That was IMO a no brainer.

The close 2nd is the trade for McDermott and not picking up better players when we were still at contending level.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#36 » by patryk7754 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:23 pm

jesus. it shouldn't be this hard to choose
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#37 » by patryk7754 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:31 pm

I think I’ll have to go with the butler trade because not only did we traded someone who is about to take a team to the finals we could have still drafted Collins and that was the start of the trash we’ve witnessed recently.

Plus Mitchell was only taken three spots ahead of the bulls original pick so there’s a strong chance he could have been traded up for.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#38 » by Fastbrk4brkfast » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:47 pm

Ugly Duckling wrote:You guys have made some good cases for several of these and I'm a little surprised the Valentine pick didn't get more hate given 4 eventual starters (2 of them All Stars) were still on the board, but mine is probably the Snell pick. I remember being really high on Gobert before the draft. I mean his shot blocking, his length. He seemed like he had a really good feel for the game. And we really needed a C, although that should really factor into the decision. I'm surprised Gobert went so low, so obviously our FO wasn't the only one who missed it. They was hoping that Snell would turn into Kawhi because he went to the same high school :banghead:


They were drafting for the depature of Luol Deng. Joakim won DPOY for Gobert's rookie season.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#39 » by aaqubed » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:57 pm

Having Jrue Holiday might have made a huge difference in 2011. We badly needed a second ball handler, and having someone who could guard Wade would let Rose rest on defense. That could have been the difference between winning the title that year or at least getting to the Finals. We debated for months in 2011 about going after OJ Mayo or Courtney Lee -- but Jrue would have been a better option than both.

Might not be the worst decision, full-stop -- probably the Doug trade was worse. But that might have been the most impactful. If we think that Rose's injuries were a result of overworking him, we could have rested him a lot more with Jrue around. Thibs would have loved him as well.
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Re: Pax's Worst Draft Day Decision 

Post#40 » by Leslie Forman » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:58 pm

TheSuzerain wrote:My hot take is that the Tyrus selection wasn't that bad. He had an absolutely incredible freshman year.

It was more a failure in scouting the non-basketball things like work ethic/commitment rather than a misevaluation of his basketball talents.

No, his basketball ability was grossly underscouted as well.

Everyone did the whole "He used to be a guard before the growth spurt!" thing as if it was a positive, when it was actually a gigantic red flag on both his skillset and work ethic. If he was so talented, why the hell didn't he at least have some skill on the ball like a young Scottie Pippen or Anthony Davis? Why was Joakim Noah so much better at dribbling and passing when he was even taller? How was this kid ever really going to develop his dribbling/passing/shooting if he apparently wasn't even any good at it before the growth spurt?

That was a godawful pick, even without hindsight.

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