Image ImageImage Image

Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

Moderators: HomoSapien, fleet, RedBulls23, Ice Man, AshyLarrysDiaper, Tommy Udo 6 , GimmeDat, dougthonus, Payt10, DASMACKDOWN, kulaz3000

Lauri extension?

Don't want to see one happen - let him show me more first
40
33%
4 years/$40M-$50M
22
18%
4 year/$50M-$65M
29
24%
4 years/$65M-$80M
21
17%
4 years/$80M+
6
5%
Other (explain)
4
3%
 
Total votes: 122

User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 48,786
And1: 8,653
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1101 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:42 pm

cjbulls wrote:
dougthonus wrote: Again, you keep telling me I'm wrong but fail to come up with one comparable great player that's like this. At the very least it is uncommon or either of us could name several off the top of our heads. It doesn't mean it won't happen. It just means it shouldn't be viewed as likely. Lauri bouncing back to year 2 form? That seems well within the realm of reason. It may not happen, just like Michael Carter Williams and Tyreke Evans peaked super early in their careers, but its certainly very plausible, especially given the coaching.

I mean I'm not rooting against Lauri. The best outcome for Bulls fans is that all of our players turn into superstars, I wish that for all of them including Lauri. My expectation for Lauri is probably somewhere around year 2 stats.


It’s not a failure but I don’t want to expend the effort of trial and error, and then have you nitpick why a drop in PER and TS% is ok as long as their per36 points increased slightly. If Lauri progresses this year and returns to a normal trajectory, no one outside of highly engaged Bulls fans will remember he had a dip under Boylen.

But if you insist, all of these players saw a year with a significant dip in PER in their first few years.

Kemba
DeRozan
Oladipo
DeAndre Jordan
Klay Thompson


Appreciate the effort.

Lauri dropped in per 36, per game totals, and efficiency metrics, and did so reasonably significantly across all of those. DeRozan (year 2 to year 3) is probably the most similar to Lauri those his drops weren't quite as big. The other guys generally only dropped in 1 area and by not as big of amounts (DeRozan didn't drop by as big of amounts either), but I'll agree DeRozan is a pretty good example. Oladipo isn't far off either an example either, but again, you just don't see the total drop across all areas.

Anyway, I doubt we'll get further, so here's to hoping you are right and I'm a dumbass! :lol:
http://linktr.ee/bullsbeat - links to the bullsbeat podcast
@doug_thonus on twitter
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 302
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1102 » by FranchisePlayer » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:46 pm

dougthonus wrote:
FriedRise wrote:Through four games, Lauri might be primed to have a bounce back year. These are his P36 numbers compared to last year:

Image

His FGA needs to be higher given how efficient he's been (66% TS), but his shooting and rebounding numbers are up across the board. It doesn't look like he's gonna improve on things that he was never very good at (steals, blocks, offensive rebounding, defense), but what's most encouraging to me is his much higher free throw attempts because he's been super aggressive attacking the rim. He's almost doubling last year's average in FTA. His total rebounding is also higher - almost matching the years when he had Robin Lopez boxing out everybody - so he's been battling on the boards too.

We obviously need to see if any of this will sustain - let's say for the next two months - but if he continues to play as aggressively as he has these first four games, I don't see why it won't. The 3P% will most likely drop, but if he can keep attacking and going to the line, it shouldn't affect his scoring output all that much. I hope this calf contusion isn't gonna make him miss too much time.


No doubt he has had an excellent start to the season.

I know I come off as a Lauri hater sometimes, but I just have my expectations set as to what I think will happen. I know what I think will happen will not happen. If it did, I'd be betting in vegas and making millions of dollars instead of talking with you on this forum.

I hope Lauri has an amazing year, and I think he's off to the best start on the team so far. Most encouraging is his level of aggressiveness compared to last year. His hot shooting from three has also been great. I think hoping for his level of efficiency to remain the same will mean he'll need to draw a few more fouls since his 3p% and 2p% are probably both a little higher than we can expect him to maintain, but its a great start.


In my eyes never. Pretty fair analysis of both his pros and cons, possibilities etc. To me a "hater" ridicules, submissively, and arguments in a way just to make sure a fight could break loose. I could name a few just to be clear of the definition but it probably wouldn't do any good. In general digging trenches is a not a good strategy but naturally people can and should have different opinions without having to water them down.

But hey, all the best of luck of making Vegas and never having to talk with a bunch of a-holes like us again! :wink:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:Comparing Markkanen the Euro soft bum to Eddy Curry Shaq Jr is an understatement and a drastic overvaluation of this Euro bust.
PhilLeotardo
Junior
Posts: 347
And1: 219
Joined: Sep 23, 2020

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1103 » by PhilLeotardo » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:48 pm

I expect a LM trade by mid season. Fans can only hope it happens, although I’m not sure he’d fetch much, so they might just ride it out with him. The idea of him being a centerpiece player is over with. He had his development jeopardized & is now essentially Bargnani 2.0.

It became exhausting discussing this average, boring stretch 4 Euro like 3 years ago lol, and now it’s just become cringe & sad. The continued obsessing over the minutiae of a bad basketball player, who isn’t even really a true NBA starter, is like a cycle of insanity that just gets more & more comical the more it’s revealed what a dead-average piece of talent he truly is

I’m assuming that, should he get moved, he’ll be a part of some multi-team deal that lands AKEVS a couple decent draft picks or a good, established vet with some good mileage left on him

Markkanen can become a good player on a good team, but it won’t happen in Chicago. He’s a horrible fit for the franchise & the city. He’ll forever be known to Bulls fans as “that guy that Paxson took over Donovan”. He’s an awkward fit in the modern NBA in general. I’d put decent money on LM heading back to Europe after this season, it’d be a smart move for him. Best case scenario in the NBA for him is going to a team like Denver, Miami, Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee etc some team that already has a system in place, but the chances of that happening are obviously slim-to-none

And although he *can* conceivably become a solid player on an NBA team, his health may prevent that from ever happening
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 302
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1104 » by FranchisePlayer » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:51 pm

PhilLeotardo wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:
FriedRise wrote:Through four games, Lauri might be primed to have a bounce back year. These are his P36 numbers compared to last year:

Image

His FGA needs to be higher given how efficient he's been (66% TS), but his shooting and rebounding numbers are up across the board. It doesn't look like he's gonna improve on things that he was never very good at (steals, blocks, offensive rebounding, defense), but what's most encouraging to me is his much higher free throw attempts because he's been super aggressive attacking the rim. He's almost doubling last year's average in FTA. His total rebounding is also higher - almost matching the years when he had Robin Lopez boxing out everybody - so he's been battling on the boards too.

We obviously need to see if any of this will sustain - let's say for the next two months - but if he continues to play as aggressively as he has these first four games, I don't see why it won't. The 3P% will most likely drop, but if he can keep attacking and going to the line, it shouldn't affect his scoring output all that much. I hope this calf contusion isn't gonna make him miss too much time.


Very good analysis on his situation.

I actually hope he misses a lot of time due to the injury, only to make sure that he continues to play 100% fit.


This is sarcasm, yes? My detector is a tad dulled as of late lol


Yeah, you've been numerous times wrong and this is one of those occasions.

But I salute you for being consistent to the path you've chosen!
MeloRoseNoah wrote:Comparing Markkanen the Euro soft bum to Eddy Curry Shaq Jr is an understatement and a drastic overvaluation of this Euro bust.
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,471
And1: 1,242
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1105 » by cjbulls » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:54 pm

dougthonus wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
dougthonus wrote: Again, you keep telling me I'm wrong but fail to come up with one comparable great player that's like this. At the very least it is uncommon or either of us could name several off the top of our heads. It doesn't mean it won't happen. It just means it shouldn't be viewed as likely. Lauri bouncing back to year 2 form? That seems well within the realm of reason. It may not happen, just like Michael Carter Williams and Tyreke Evans peaked super early in their careers, but its certainly very plausible, especially given the coaching.

I mean I'm not rooting against Lauri. The best outcome for Bulls fans is that all of our players turn into superstars, I wish that for all of them including Lauri. My expectation for Lauri is probably somewhere around year 2 stats.


It’s not a failure but I don’t want to expend the effort of trial and error, and then have you nitpick why a drop in PER and TS% is ok as long as their per36 points increased slightly. If Lauri progresses this year and returns to a normal trajectory, no one outside of highly engaged Bulls fans will remember he had a dip under Boylen.

But if you insist, all of these players saw a year with a significant dip in PER in their first few years.

Kemba
DeRozan
Oladipo
DeAndre Jordan
Klay Thompson


Appreciate the effort.

Lauri dropped in per 36, per game totals, and efficiency metrics, and did so reasonably significantly across all of those. DeRozan (year 2 to year 3) is probably the most similar to Lauri those his drops weren't quite as big. The other guys generally only dropped in 1 area and by not as big of amounts (DeRozan didn't drop by as big of amounts either), but I'll agree DeRozan is a pretty good example. Oladipo isn't far off either an example either, but again, you just don't see the total drop across all areas.

Anyway, I doubt we'll get further, so here's to hoping you are right and I'm a dumbass! :lol:


The irony is I don’t even like Lauri long term and it sounds like you do, but we are arguing opposite positions here. I feel he needs to be a Zach level scorer to make up for his other deficiencies and be “worth it” as a long term foundational piece. A value contract at $15M would have meant he didn’t need to hit that high of a mark and we can just heave hoped for the best with no downside.

His contract will now be overpaid because he contributes in areas that are the most quantifiable. But they still should have taken him at the discount and either moved him, hoped for the aforementioned progression, or surrounded him with more well rounded star players so he could better exploit his strengths.
GoBlue72391
Analyst
Posts: 3,090
And1: 882
Joined: Oct 26, 2009
     

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1106 » by GoBlue72391 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:59 pm

PhilLeotardo wrote:I expect a LM trade by mid season. Fans can only hope it happens, although I’m not sure he’d fetch much, so they might just ride it out with him. The idea of him being a centerpiece player is over with. He had his development jeopardized & is now essentially Bargnani 2.0.

It became exhausting discussing this average, boring stretch 4 Euro like 3 years ago lol, and now it’s just become cringe & sad. The continued obsessing over the minutiae of a bad basketball player, who isn’t even really a true NBA starter, is like a cycle of insanity that just gets more & more comical the more it’s revealed what a dead-average piece of talent he truly is

I’m assuming that, should he get moved, he’ll be a part of some multi-team deal that lands AKEVS a couple decent draft picks or a good, established vet with some good mileage left on him

Markkanen can become a good player on a good team, but it won’t happen in Chicago. He’s a horrible fit for the franchise & the city. He’ll forever be known to Bulls fans as “that guy that Paxson took over Donovan”. He’s an awkward fit in the modern NBA in general. I’d put decent money on LM heading back to Europe after this season, it’d be a smart move for him. Best case scenario in the NBA for him is going to a team like Denver, Miami, Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee etc some team that already has a system in place, but the chances of that happening are obviously slim-to-none

And although he *can* conceivably become a solid player on an NBA team, his health may prevent that from ever happening
Is tomorrow 2021 or am I reading this in 2019???

Sent from my SM-S757BL using RealGM mobile app
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 302
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1107 » by FranchisePlayer » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:18 pm

GoBlue72391 wrote:
PhilLeotardo wrote:I expect a LM trade by mid season. Fans can only hope it happens, although I’m not sure he’d fetch much, so they might just ride it out with him. The idea of him being a centerpiece player is over with. He had his development jeopardized & is now essentially Bargnani 2.0.

It became exhausting discussing this average, boring stretch 4 Euro like 3 years ago lol, and now it’s just become cringe & sad. The continued obsessing over the minutiae of a bad basketball player, who isn’t even really a true NBA starter, is like a cycle of insanity that just gets more & more comical the more it’s revealed what a dead-average piece of talent he truly is

I’m assuming that, should he get moved, he’ll be a part of some multi-team deal that lands AKEVS a couple decent draft picks or a good, established vet with some good mileage left on him

Markkanen can become a good player on a good team, but it won’t happen in Chicago. He’s a horrible fit for the franchise & the city. He’ll forever be known to Bulls fans as “that guy that Paxson took over Donovan”. He’s an awkward fit in the modern NBA in general. I’d put decent money on LM heading back to Europe after this season, it’d be a smart move for him. Best case scenario in the NBA for him is going to a team like Denver, Miami, Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee etc some team that already has a system in place, but the chances of that happening are obviously slim-to-none

And although he *can* conceivably become a solid player on an NBA team, his health may prevent that from ever happening
Is tomorrow 2021 or am I reading this in 2019???

Sent from my SM-S757BL using RealGM mobile app


I don't know but that kind of posts bring us to the first lesson: When smoking crack, don't inhale.
MeloRoseNoah wrote:Comparing Markkanen the Euro soft bum to Eddy Curry Shaq Jr is an understatement and a drastic overvaluation of this Euro bust.
sami71
Junior
Posts: 256
And1: 175
Joined: Jun 27, 2017
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1108 » by sami71 » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:50 pm

PhilLeotardo wrote:Markkanen can become a good player on a good team, but it won’t happen in Chicago. He’s a horrible fit for the franchise & the city.


I am interested in hearing about why do you think he is a bad fit for the City.

Otherwise, I agree he should be moved as soon as a good trade comes along.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 48,786
And1: 8,653
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1109 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:03 pm

cjbulls wrote:The irony is I don’t even like Lauri long term and it sounds like you do, but we are arguing opposite positions here. I feel he needs to be a Zach level scorer to make up for his other deficiencies and be “worth it” as a long term foundational piece. A value contract at $15M would have meant he didn’t need to hit that high of a mark and we can just heave hoped for the best with no downside.

His contract will now be overpaid because he contributes in areas that are the most quantifiable. But they still should have taken him at the discount and either moved him, hoped for the aforementioned progression, or surrounded him with more well rounded star players so he could better exploit his strengths.


Maybe we're in the same boat.

AGain, I'd have had no problem at 15M per. There just isn't a whole lot of downside there. At 20M per, I think it gets a lot dicier. I wouldn't hate it, but because we're under the cap and could immediately utilize the space in other ways, I would be more open to trading and using our space to try and get more picks.

My guess is whatever happens, once he hits FA that his next deal will be for more than I want to pay whether he improves or doesn't improve because if he improves, his value will skyrocket, and if he doesn't you won't really want him.
http://linktr.ee/bullsbeat - links to the bullsbeat podcast
@doug_thonus on twitter
DorO
Junior
Posts: 360
And1: 150
Joined: Jan 22, 2018
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1110 » by DorO » Fri Jan 1, 2021 4:35 pm

Not surprised that Lauri is injured again, same season after season. He is not built to play NBA level game for longer stretches and thus he can never make any comeback. I don’t know which NBA team is willing to have black hole in D unless he comes from bench as 6th-7th man with limited minutes.
Stratmaster
RealGM
Posts: 15,645
And1: 5,487
Joined: Oct 02, 2010
       

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1111 » by Stratmaster » Fri Jan 1, 2021 4:59 pm

chefo wrote:Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.
There is no universe where Lauri is a more valuable player than Zach in any context, and that is assuming Lauri continues to get better.

I love how every Lauri fan thinks the way to make his case is to compare him to Lavine. Or now (in another post), Jimmy Butler.

The fact that the only way to try to make a case for Lauri is to try to minimize Lavine, and in some cases blame him for Lauri's lack of performance, is in and of itself an indictment if Lauri.

Just stop it.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app
Stratmaster
RealGM
Posts: 15,645
And1: 5,487
Joined: Oct 02, 2010
       

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1112 » by Stratmaster » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:05 pm

mlitney01 wrote:It's looking like Lauri will be shooting over 40% on his 3pta this season, which is fantastic. He's also been aggressive in driving to the hoop and drawing fouls and/or finishing, which has showed me that he can create a little bit for himself. The next step would be to get his eyes up and look for open cutters/shooters during those drives to the basket.

I feel like his defense has improved slightly. He's had a few really nice defensive stops near the basket, but there's still a lot of work to be done there. As many have said before, he doesn't possess the length or athleticism to become an elite rim protector, but I think he can be solid. And that should be more than enough if he's scoring 20ppg on 50/40/80.

He's not a max player yet, but if he can add another dimension, such as finding open players on his drives, then I think he's worth it. He's only 23 and seems to have a good work ethic so I don't feel like these goals are unrealistic.
Over 3 seasons Lauri has shot 36% from 3.

After 4 games you are now stating he will shoot over 40% this season?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app
Stratmaster
RealGM
Posts: 15,645
And1: 5,487
Joined: Oct 02, 2010
       

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1113 » by Stratmaster » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:14 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheSuzerain wrote:This is why we need to put the "Coby starting at PG" hair-brained scheme back on the shelf.

Play Sato or Denzel at that spot and let's showcase Lauri and Zach.


If you think this really gets you more in trade for Lauri or Zach then I would be fine doing that, then resuming the Coby at PG experiment after the trade deadline. IMO, it's really hard to see any scenario where trading Zach and Lauri at the deadline is not the best move. Even if the returns are small.

Lauri - He's a FA and we are under the cap, there is no advantage to keeping him vs not keeping him, heck we could even just bid on him again in FA next summer if we wanted. Might as well get whatever you can, even if it is small.

Zach - He might be worth keeping, but one of two things is going to happen, he's going to be offered the 30% max and we have to pay him that and even then he might choose to take someone else's max over ours. Or he's not going to be worth that much and is worth less than he is today. In either scenario, the Bulls are better off trading him now, and it is extremely likely his value will decline.

Both these points might be different under different circumstances, if we thought we were going to go somewhere in the next two years or if we were over the cap, but we appear at the start of a deep, deep rebuild. These guys aren't ever going to be worth more to us later, so unless we're willing to be the high bidders on both (and we probably shouldn't be based on where we are right now) then we should get what we can and commence with the rebuild of the rebuild.
We started the deep, deep rebuild a few seasons ago. Sorry, I am not willing to just shed the 2 players who actually have talent for small returns.

What is the point? Are the Bulls trying to build players to their highest value and shed them at the exact right moment to be able to say what great contract managers they are, or are they trying to win?

I want to hear your plan for building a winning team after you strip the Bulls down to Carter, Coby and Pwill, 2 of whom don't even appear to be starter quality players with one too early to tell. May as well just start an expansion franchise.

When someone can give me a viable plan to rebuild the team starting with those 3 players I will be all in for trades of the best player and best upside prospect on the team.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app
Stratmaster
RealGM
Posts: 15,645
And1: 5,487
Joined: Oct 02, 2010
       

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1114 » by Stratmaster » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:17 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
mlitney01 wrote:
WindyCityBorn wrote:
We have played 3 games. Thinking he will shoot over 40 percent from 3 all season is Hell of an assumption. Anything over 37 would be great as long he continues to score other ways,


Yeah, honestly after I wrote that, I immediately questioned my own assumption of that. I guess after watching these 3 games (after not watching many last season), his shot looks improved and Lauri looks confident in it. Some of his 3's have been pure beauty, and I hope it continues.


Second year after recovering from the elbow until he started having fatigue issues he was at 38.7% on 6.7 attempts a game for 34 games.

Last year after that oblique injury to when he had a bad ankle roll he was at 40.8% on 8.7 attempts a game for 17 games.

This year with 3 healthy games he's at 47.6% on 8.7 attempts a game.

I think 40% is within Lauri's range if he stays healthy. Let's see how this calf contusion affects him
Note that in all your examples the more games he played, even when healthy, the lower his percentage was?

This shortened season would be his best chance to hit 40% but if you put a gun to my head or made me bet my house, I am betting against it and feeling pretty safe.

And regardless, he is already missing games this season. Do you expect he will stay healthy, even in this shortened season?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,471
And1: 1,242
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback'mature 

Post#1115 » by cjbulls » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:45 pm

Stratmaster wrote:
mlitney01 wrote:It's looking like Lauri will be shooting over 40% on his 3pta this season, which is fantastic. He's also been aggressive in driving to the hoop and drawing fouls and/or finishing, which has showed me that he can create a little bit for himself. The next step would be to get his eyes up and look for open cutters/shooters during those drives to the basket.

I feel like his defense has improved slightly. He's had a few really nice defensive stops near the basket, but there's still a lot of work to be done there. As many have said before, he doesn't possess the length or athleticism to become an elite rim protector, but I think he can be solid. And that should be more than enough if he's scoring 20ppg on 50/40/80.

He's not a max player yet, but if he can add another dimension, such as finding open players on his drives, then I think he's worth it. He's only 23 and seems to have a good work ethic so I don't feel like these goals are unrealistic.
Over 3 seasons Lauri has shot 36% from 3.

After 4 games you are now stating he will shoot over 40% this season?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app


Shooters progress over time. Starting at 36%over the first few years is a pretty good sign he is capable of hitting 40. But I agree, very premature to expect this season after a few games.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 48,786
And1: 8,653
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1116 » by dougthonus » Fri Jan 1, 2021 5:50 pm

Stratmaster wrote:We started the deep, deep rebuild a few seasons ago. Sorry, I am not willing to just shed the 2 players who actually have talent for small returns.


That is sunk cost mentality. We're a bottom 5 team in the league with these guys on value contracts, how are we going to build a good team with them chewing up all the cap room?

What is the point? Are the Bulls trying to build players to their highest value and shed them at the exact right moment to be able to say what great contract managers they are, or are they trying to win?


My opinion is you won't be able to win with these two guys on big contracts. The point is that while we started a deep rebuild three years ago, it was a failure, and so the best move is to get out as best we can, recognize that fact, and start over. Now if you believe this rebuild can go somewhere meaningful after you have to pay Zach + Lauri a combined 35M more dollars or so, then you can keep these guys, but I don't believe that will work for us.

I want to hear your plan for building a winning team after you strip the Bulls down to Carter, Coby and Pwill, 2 of whom don't even appear to be starter quality players with one too early to tell. May as well just start an expansion franchise.

When someone can give me a viable plan to rebuild the team starting with those 3 players I will be all in for trades of the best player and best upside prospect on the team.


My plan is:
Trade Zach + Lauri for as much as you can get
Trade anyone else that can return picks that you think are more valuable than their long term growth (Sato, Thad, Porter, WCJ are the prime candidates)
Use your 2021 cap room to facilitate deals and try to get as many additional picks as you can
Be bottom 3 this year
Rebuild through the draft

There's no obvious way to get out of this mess. The other plan is keep these guys and hope Zach LaVine is really the next Harden in a couple years and becomes an absolutely dominant offensive player or that Lauri Markkanen turns into a star, or that you just get super lucky in the draft somewhere. If you very much believe in those guys, that's fine. I don't. Staying the course but paying these core guys 35M more doesn't seem likely to yield great results to me.
http://linktr.ee/bullsbeat - links to the bullsbeat podcast
@doug_thonus on twitter
sco
RealGM
Posts: 16,007
And1: 4,330
Joined: Sep 22, 2003
Location: Virtually Everywhere!

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1117 » by sco » Fri Jan 1, 2021 7:19 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:We started the deep, deep rebuild a few seasons ago. Sorry, I am not willing to just shed the 2 players who actually have talent for small returns.


That is sunk cost mentality. We're a bottom 5 team in the league with these guys on value contracts, how are we going to build a good team with them chewing up all the cap room?

What is the point? Are the Bulls trying to build players to their highest value and shed them at the exact right moment to be able to say what great contract managers they are, or are they trying to win?


My opinion is you won't be able to win with these two guys on big contracts. The point is that while we started a deep rebuild three years ago, it was a failure, and so the best move is to get out as best we can, recognize that fact, and start over. Now if you believe this rebuild can go somewhere meaningful after you have to pay Zach + Lauri a combined 35M more dollars or so, then you can keep these guys, but I don't believe that will work for us.

I want to hear your plan for building a winning team after you strip the Bulls down to Carter, Coby and Pwill, 2 of whom don't even appear to be starter quality players with one too early to tell. May as well just start an expansion franchise.

When someone can give me a viable plan to rebuild the team starting with those 3 players I will be all in for trades of the best player and best upside prospect on the team.


My plan is:
Trade Zach + Lauri for as much as you can get
Trade anyone else that can return picks that you think are more valuable than their long term growth (Sato, Thad, Porter, WCJ are the prime candidates)
Use your 2021 cap room to facilitate deals and try to get as many additional picks as you can
Be bottom 3 this year
Rebuild through the draft

There's no obvious way to get out of this mess. The other plan is keep these guys and hope Zach LaVine is really the next Harden in a couple years and becomes an absolutely dominant offensive player or that Lauri Markkanen turns into a star, or that you just get super lucky in the draft somewhere. If you very much believe in those guys, that's fine. I don't. Staying the course but paying these core guys 35M more doesn't seem likely to yield great results to me.

I think there is a difference between being a bad team because your 3 "worst" starters have all played less than 90 NBA games and are learning a new system and being bad because your guys flat out are middling talents. If this season has showed me anything it's that Zach and Lauri would look materially better surrounded by competent vets. I'm not saying we are a playoff team as constructed, but I'm saying that your assessment is premature. I do think we'll know more about what this team can be in a year or two by watching for any progression up to the deadline. If we do continue to roll with Zach and Coby as our guards, I think trading Lauri will likely make sense given the combination of him maybe being his best when he's a #2 option. A guy like Otto looked great last night because he's a guy who thrives more as a 3rd option guy, and contributes in non-scoring ways more than Lauri does.
:clap:
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 48,786
And1: 8,653
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1118 » by dougthonus » Fri Jan 1, 2021 7:36 pm

sco wrote:I think there is a difference between being a bad team because your 3 "worst" starters have all played less than 90 NBA games and are learning a new system and being bad because your guys flat out are middling talents. If this season has showed me anything it's that Zach and Lauri would look materially better surrounded by competent vets.


You will have 35M less cap room to surround them with vets than you do today.

I'm not saying we are a playoff team as constructed, but I'm saying that your assessment is premature.


It might be premature. It's my best guess. If we wait longer, and my best guess is wrong, we will get even less in return, so there is a cost to waiting, but yeah, I could turn out to be wrong for sure.

I do think we'll know more about what this team can be in a year or two by watching for any progression up to the deadline.


We will do this either way. We aren't making trades in the next week. That just doesn't happen at this time of year. The next chance we will move will be the deadline, so we have that much time to evaluate either way.
http://linktr.ee/bullsbeat - links to the bullsbeat podcast
@doug_thonus on twitter
User avatar
PaKii94
Head Coach
Posts: 7,459
And1: 4,103
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1119 » by PaKii94 » Fri Jan 1, 2021 8:43 pm

The covid protocol happening now is a blessing in disguise. Lauri gets some time to rest up instead of continually playing through a nagging injury
ZOMG
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,709
And1: 2,776
Joined: Dec 31, 2013

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1120 » by ZOMG » Fri Jan 1, 2021 8:50 pm

PaKii94 wrote:The covid protocol happening now is a blessing in disguise. Lauri gets some time to rest up instead of continually playing through a nagging injury


I don't see much good in it. Lauri was getting into a groove and now that's gone - and he probably wouldn't have missed 7-10 days with just the calf anyway.

The worst case scenario, of course, is that he actually gets covid and might be out for a month.
Current status: ACTIVE
Former status: BANNED FOR DERAILING DISCUSSION

Return to Chicago Bulls