Free Agent Targets
Posted: Sat Oct 3, 2020 7:14 pm
We're mostly laser-focused on the draft, but I thought it good to have a thread to discuss some potential Free Agent targets (I apologize in advance to the Grizzlies).
Barring something unexpected, it seems to me we're going to have the non-taxpayer Mid Level Exception with which to sign guys. So that's about $9 million to play with.
Who not to target? - Put me down as completely uninterested in paying market prices for established veteran role players. Are we pleased with signing Thad Young and Sato? No, we are not. Don't do it again. If you want veterans in the locker room, then just give someone really old a minimum contract (e.g. Jared Dudley).
Who to target? - I would be after young players who can be had cheaply and on contracts with solid team-control (e.g. team options, long term at low salary, etc.)
Guards:
Frank Mason - Bucks
Summary - G-League MVP. Short guard, but he's very quick and isn't too slight. Should be near his prime. He was very productive in mop-up minutes for the Bucks despite shooting far worse from 3 than he did in the G-League (28% in those minutes vs 40%+ from 3 in G-League). If his 3-ball normalizes a bit, you could have something. He also has a far better college pedigree (won Player of the Year) than someone like Arci, so it's a bit perplexing to me that he hasn't stuck anywhere yet.
Is he attainable/cheap? - He should be cheap. Restricted Free Agent, but I'd still say he's attainable because the Bucks don't have a lot of money left to be handing out. And they probably need to save that money for bigger pieces than Frank Mason. 7/10 Attainable
De'Anthony Melton - Grizzlies
Summary - Going to be a recurring theme on this list, but the Grizzlies bench was excellent last year. That's where they were out-playing teams, not their starters. Melton is an elite point-of-attack defender who plays hard. More of a complementary piece offensively, and his 3-point shot isn't there yet. He is still very young, so you're banking on some development offensively. He's kind of like Frank Ntilikina overall.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Restricted Free Agent, probably the least attainable/most expensive player on this list. If we wanted him, I think it would take our full MLE and Grizz could still match that. 3/10 attainable
Wings
John Konchar - Grizzlies
Summary - Illinois's own! This guy put up huge numbers as a senior in college, but he played at a tiny school and went undrafted. He continued his all-around solid play in the G-League, and eventually got some minutes in the NBA where he continued to play great. He rebounds, plays hard, can pass, but can he shoot it? I think that's the big question for him. If he can become a solid spot-up shooter, then you probably have a solid rotation player and good teammate.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Restricted Free Agent, but yes I've got to think he could come cheap. 7/10 attainable
Josh Jackson - Grizzlies
Summary - Busted in Phoenix, but if we're serious about 'player development', this is the type of clay we should be seeking out. He's an athletic/mobile 6'8" and is still only 23 years old. He was horrendous in his first two years, but this past year he was quite solid this year in limited minutes. He could be a guy who flames out as a big-time prospect but comes back humbled and works hard to at least stick in the league. He could still use a shot doctor, but his %'s have been better lately.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent, and he should be cheap. 10/10 attainable
Bigs
Derrick Jones Jr - Heat
Summary - Freak athlete. 6'6" with a 7' wingspan. Already a useful defender. Extremely young for a UFA who has played 3000 NBA minutes. The big question for him is obviously if he can become a good enough spot-up shooter to adequately fill that 4th/5th option role on offense. He does remind me a bit of Jerami Grant who just had a great post-season. DJJ shot a very solid 77% from the line on 123 attempts which was a major improvement for him.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent. Heat are saving all their powder for Max Free agents. I think he's very attainable. 9/10 attainable
Nerlens Noel - Thunder
Summary - Somehow, he's only 26 years old, so he's basically in his prime. He is one of the most disruptive defenders in the entire league. He's athletic and extremely mobile. On offense, he's an explosive rim-runner, and he hits his free throws. He does seem like a pretty major **** - up though (at least according to his landlord). Donovan coached him this past year, so maybe a connection there?
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent. Despite his elite defense and productivity, the guy comes cheap. Just played on a minimum contract for the Thunder. It seems he could inexplicably come cheap again. I would be wary of handing him a 4-year deal or something though. He seems destined to ply his trade on short-term contracts to keep him hungry. Therefore, he may not fit our timeline, but he nevertheless seems like great value. 7/10 attainable
Jontay Porter - Grizzlies
Summary - Hasn't played an NBA minute yet. He was not a major prospect coming out of school due to injuries and not being an exciting athlete. Having said that, this guy checks a heck of a lot of boxes for what you want in a modern big. He can pass, he can shoot, and he defends. I very badly wanted to draft this guy instead of someone like Hutch back in 2018 (Jontay withdrew from that draft so wasn't even possible). The injury concerns are real, but so is the upside.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Team option. I have to think the Grizzlies pick up his option barring concerns with his health. I would love for him to be a trade target in that case. But if the Grizzlies somehow don't pick up his option, I hope we're all over this. 3/10 attainable
So that's my list after perusing the candidates. Ideally, I think we split that MLE to try to sign 2-3 of these guys to long, team-controlled deals.
One other thought, is that we have to be so much better at using our 2-way contracts. 2-way deals basically allow you to turn guys into restricted free agents that you control, which can land you some solid prospects. We instead wasted ours on Max Strus and Adam Mokoka who are mediocre/bad G-League players (go check the stats). We need to be much more aggressive with our 2-way deals to try to land genuinely promising players rather than just signing up crap players like Strus/Mokoka for the entire season. We need to churn our 2-way guys until you land good ones.
Barring something unexpected, it seems to me we're going to have the non-taxpayer Mid Level Exception with which to sign guys. So that's about $9 million to play with.
Who not to target? - Put me down as completely uninterested in paying market prices for established veteran role players. Are we pleased with signing Thad Young and Sato? No, we are not. Don't do it again. If you want veterans in the locker room, then just give someone really old a minimum contract (e.g. Jared Dudley).
Who to target? - I would be after young players who can be had cheaply and on contracts with solid team-control (e.g. team options, long term at low salary, etc.)
Guards:
Frank Mason - Bucks
Summary - G-League MVP. Short guard, but he's very quick and isn't too slight. Should be near his prime. He was very productive in mop-up minutes for the Bucks despite shooting far worse from 3 than he did in the G-League (28% in those minutes vs 40%+ from 3 in G-League). If his 3-ball normalizes a bit, you could have something. He also has a far better college pedigree (won Player of the Year) than someone like Arci, so it's a bit perplexing to me that he hasn't stuck anywhere yet.
Is he attainable/cheap? - He should be cheap. Restricted Free Agent, but I'd still say he's attainable because the Bucks don't have a lot of money left to be handing out. And they probably need to save that money for bigger pieces than Frank Mason. 7/10 Attainable
De'Anthony Melton - Grizzlies
Summary - Going to be a recurring theme on this list, but the Grizzlies bench was excellent last year. That's where they were out-playing teams, not their starters. Melton is an elite point-of-attack defender who plays hard. More of a complementary piece offensively, and his 3-point shot isn't there yet. He is still very young, so you're banking on some development offensively. He's kind of like Frank Ntilikina overall.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Restricted Free Agent, probably the least attainable/most expensive player on this list. If we wanted him, I think it would take our full MLE and Grizz could still match that. 3/10 attainable
Wings
John Konchar - Grizzlies
Summary - Illinois's own! This guy put up huge numbers as a senior in college, but he played at a tiny school and went undrafted. He continued his all-around solid play in the G-League, and eventually got some minutes in the NBA where he continued to play great. He rebounds, plays hard, can pass, but can he shoot it? I think that's the big question for him. If he can become a solid spot-up shooter, then you probably have a solid rotation player and good teammate.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Restricted Free Agent, but yes I've got to think he could come cheap. 7/10 attainable
Josh Jackson - Grizzlies
Summary - Busted in Phoenix, but if we're serious about 'player development', this is the type of clay we should be seeking out. He's an athletic/mobile 6'8" and is still only 23 years old. He was horrendous in his first two years, but this past year he was quite solid this year in limited minutes. He could be a guy who flames out as a big-time prospect but comes back humbled and works hard to at least stick in the league. He could still use a shot doctor, but his %'s have been better lately.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent, and he should be cheap. 10/10 attainable
Bigs
Derrick Jones Jr - Heat
Summary - Freak athlete. 6'6" with a 7' wingspan. Already a useful defender. Extremely young for a UFA who has played 3000 NBA minutes. The big question for him is obviously if he can become a good enough spot-up shooter to adequately fill that 4th/5th option role on offense. He does remind me a bit of Jerami Grant who just had a great post-season. DJJ shot a very solid 77% from the line on 123 attempts which was a major improvement for him.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent. Heat are saving all their powder for Max Free agents. I think he's very attainable. 9/10 attainable
Nerlens Noel - Thunder
Summary - Somehow, he's only 26 years old, so he's basically in his prime. He is one of the most disruptive defenders in the entire league. He's athletic and extremely mobile. On offense, he's an explosive rim-runner, and he hits his free throws. He does seem like a pretty major **** - up though (at least according to his landlord). Donovan coached him this past year, so maybe a connection there?
Is he attainable/cheap? - Unrestricted Free Agent. Despite his elite defense and productivity, the guy comes cheap. Just played on a minimum contract for the Thunder. It seems he could inexplicably come cheap again. I would be wary of handing him a 4-year deal or something though. He seems destined to ply his trade on short-term contracts to keep him hungry. Therefore, he may not fit our timeline, but he nevertheless seems like great value. 7/10 attainable
Jontay Porter - Grizzlies
Summary - Hasn't played an NBA minute yet. He was not a major prospect coming out of school due to injuries and not being an exciting athlete. Having said that, this guy checks a heck of a lot of boxes for what you want in a modern big. He can pass, he can shoot, and he defends. I very badly wanted to draft this guy instead of someone like Hutch back in 2018 (Jontay withdrew from that draft so wasn't even possible). The injury concerns are real, but so is the upside.
Is he attainable/cheap? - Team option. I have to think the Grizzlies pick up his option barring concerns with his health. I would love for him to be a trade target in that case. But if the Grizzlies somehow don't pick up his option, I hope we're all over this. 3/10 attainable
So that's my list after perusing the candidates. Ideally, I think we split that MLE to try to sign 2-3 of these guys to long, team-controlled deals.
One other thought, is that we have to be so much better at using our 2-way contracts. 2-way deals basically allow you to turn guys into restricted free agents that you control, which can land you some solid prospects. We instead wasted ours on Max Strus and Adam Mokoka who are mediocre/bad G-League players (go check the stats). We need to be much more aggressive with our 2-way deals to try to land genuinely promising players rather than just signing up crap players like Strus/Mokoka for the entire season. We need to churn our 2-way guys until you land good ones.