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OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no?

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What are you planning to vote?

Yes
35
45%
No
42
55%
 
Total votes: 77

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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#161 » by moorhosj » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:51 pm

Almost Retired wrote:The median price of homes between 2 distinctly different locations is not a very useful tool. An assessment of the value you get in return for price is left out. If my 4 bedroom, 3 bath brick home on a 9,000 sq ft fully landscaped lot cost $425K, and a comparable house in Downers Grove, Illinois costs $625K...who is getting the better value? (I use Downers Grove as my example because my sister and her family live there and I am familiar with the town.) Again, Goodle the house we just sold: 2804 Tinmouth, in Austin, TX 78748. The Zillow listing is still up there. Compare it to your house in Chicagoland. And Austin is no backwoods shanty town. It has every amenity that Chicago has except Professional Sport Teams and lakefront beaches. Having lived in both places (our last Chicago house was near Addison and Central Park) there is no comparison in terms of value received per Dollar spent. You can live in a nicer house, on a bigger lot, for less money in the purchase price and less money spent yearly on taxes in Texas than you can in Chicagoland. And you can leave your snow shovels, windshield ice scrapers and sidewalk rock salt behind for your neighbors. In my line of work I make approximately the same whether I work in Texas or Illinois. By living in Texas, with no income tax and much lower COMPARABLE housing prices, our salary Dollars go farther. So I have more left at the end of the month to invest and save. And we want for nothing (except those addicting Ricobene's breaded steak sandwiches dipped in tomato sauce and the Pizza). I'm not totally down on Chicago. I wish the crime rate were lower, and from a recent report on the news they seem to have a rat problem....but it is still a world class city. But Covid is going to take a toll on all big cities. Public transportation is going to be suspect as a driver of virus spread. And more people are going to be allowed to work from home, negating the need to live close into a central business district. And lastly, some of the reasons for living in the city...the theaters, restaurants and bars might not survive the pandemic. If people don't revert back to their old ways then those amenities might not be available. Many are hanging by a thread and their survival is touch and go. If the fall and winter bring a severe Covid resurgence those communal gathering places will not survive. Further reducing the attractiveness of city living.


It’s pretty hard to follow this without any line breaks, but comparing a house in Austin (a huge diverse city) to a house in Downers Grove (a small, well-off suburb) is not even close to apples-to-apples. Of course homes values are higher in Downers Grove the median income is almost $100k. A home in Portage Park, a neighborhood in Chicago, is a much better comparison. (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4032-N-Mason-Ave-60634/home/13474169). 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, good schools, $4,500 property taxes, very low crime. Or maybe Jefferson Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5202-W-Strong-St-60630/home/12665165) a 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, $5,500 property taxes, great schools, low crime, public transportation. Or maybe Norwood Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5912-N-Newburg-Ave-60631/home/13506782) 4 bed, 4 bath, $439k, low crime, $5,000 property taxes, really good schools. Each of these homes have far smaller lots than you mentioned. The flip side is the ability to walk your kids to school, the park, the library, the train, etc. The point isn’t that one is “better” or “cheaper” than the other, the point is that you can get a 4 beds and 3 baths SFH in Chicago for about the same as Austin. The schools might even be better and your property taxes might be less in Chicago, but you’ll have a smaller yard and pay income tax.

The prospect of COVID this spring shouldn’t really impact someone taking on a 30-year mortgage. Live music and restaurants aren’t likely going to close forever. The museums (which Austin isn’t in the same category as Chicago) have already re-opened. City’s have survived pandemics before, it’s likely they will again. Either way, the home values in my neighborhood are doing just fine and all the renovations/tear downs suggest this part of the city will do just fine (sorry to burst your bubble).

Your views aren’t that surprising given your “ANTIFA is destroying Portland” comment. The problem is when facts meet political bias, the facts win. There must be something about Chicago/Illinois when people who haven’t lived here for 15 years still follow it so closely to know the status of it’s rats and politics.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#162 » by dougthonus » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:22 pm

moorhosj wrote:
Almost Retired wrote:The median price of homes between 2 distinctly different locations is not a very useful tool. An assessment of the value you get in return for price is left out. If my 4 bedroom, 3 bath brick home on a 9,000 sq ft fully landscaped lot cost $425K, and a comparable house in Downers Grove, Illinois costs $625K...who is getting the better value? (I use Downers Grove as my example because my sister and her family live there and I am familiar with the town.) Again, Goodle the house we just sold: 2804 Tinmouth, in Austin, TX 78748. The Zillow listing is still up there. Compare it to your house in Chicagoland. And Austin is no backwoods shanty town. It has every amenity that Chicago has except Professional Sport Teams and lakefront beaches. Having lived in both places (our last Chicago house was near Addison and Central Park) there is no comparison in terms of value received per Dollar spent. You can live in a nicer house, on a bigger lot, for less money in the purchase price and less money spent yearly on taxes in Texas than you can in Chicagoland. And you can leave your snow shovels, windshield ice scrapers and sidewalk rock salt behind for your neighbors. In my line of work I make approximately the same whether I work in Texas or Illinois. By living in Texas, with no income tax and much lower COMPARABLE housing prices, our salary Dollars go farther. So I have more left at the end of the month to invest and save. And we want for nothing (except those addicting Ricobene's breaded steak sandwiches dipped in tomato sauce and the Pizza). I'm not totally down on Chicago. I wish the crime rate were lower, and from a recent report on the news they seem to have a rat problem....but it is still a world class city. But Covid is going to take a toll on all big cities. Public transportation is going to be suspect as a driver of virus spread. And more people are going to be allowed to work from home, negating the need to live close into a central business district. And lastly, some of the reasons for living in the city...the theaters, restaurants and bars might not survive the pandemic. If people don't revert back to their old ways then those amenities might not be available. Many are hanging by a thread and their survival is touch and go. If the fall and winter bring a severe Covid resurgence those communal gathering places will not survive. Further reducing the attractiveness of city living.


It’s pretty hard to follow this without any line breaks, but comparing a house in Austin (a huge diverse city) to a house in Downers Grove (a small, well-off suburb) is not even close to apples-to-apples. Of course homes values are higher in Downers Grove the median income is almost $100k. A home in Portage Park, a neighborhood in Chicago, is a much better comparison. (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4032-N-Mason-Ave-60634/home/13474169). 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, good schools, $4,500 property taxes, very low crime. Or maybe Jefferson Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5202-W-Strong-St-60630/home/12665165) a 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, $5,500 property taxes, great schools, low crime, public transportation. Or maybe Norwood Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5912-N-Newburg-Ave-60631/home/13506782) 4 bed, 4 bath, $439k, low crime, $5,000 property taxes, really good schools. Each of these homes have far smaller lots than you mentioned. The flip side is the ability to walk your kids to school, the park, the library, the train, etc. The point isn’t that one is “better” or “cheaper” than the other, the point is that you can get a 4 beds and 3 baths SFH in Chicago for about the same as Austin. The schools might even be better and your property taxes might be less in Chicago, but you’ll have a smaller yard and pay income tax.

The prospect of COVID this spring shouldn’t really impact someone taking on a 30-year mortgage. Live music and restaurants aren’t likely going to close forever. The museums (which Austin isn’t in the same category as Chicago) have already re-opened. City’s have survived pandemics before, it’s likely they will again. Either way, the home values in my neighborhood are doing just fine and all the renovations/tear downs suggest this part of the city will do just fine (sorry to burst your bubble).

Your views aren’t that surprising given your “ANTIFA is destroying Portland” comment. The problem is when facts meet political bias, the facts win. There must be something about Chicago/Illinois when people who haven’t lived here for 15 years still follow it so closely to know the status of it’s rats and politics.


Would also note that 625k for a 4bed 3bath house is really expensive for Downer's Grove. Maybe if it's a 4000 square foot house or much bigger than the 2200 square foot one in Austin as a comparison. Otherwise, it's pretty trivial to find houses matching that description in Downer's for 350-450k depending on amenity quality if you only want 2200 square feet.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#163 » by 2018C3 » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:40 am

dougthonus wrote:
moorhosj wrote:
Almost Retired wrote:The median price of homes between 2 distinctly different locations is not a very useful tool. An assessment of the value you get in return for price is left out. If my 4 bedroom, 3 bath brick home on a 9,000 sq ft fully landscaped lot cost $425K, and a comparable house in Downers Grove, Illinois costs $625K...who is getting the better value? (I use Downers Grove as my example because my sister and her family live there and I am familiar with the town.) Again, Goodle the house we just sold: 2804 Tinmouth, in Austin, TX 78748. The Zillow listing is still up there. Compare it to your house in Chicagoland. And Austin is no backwoods shanty town. It has every amenity that Chicago has except Professional Sport Teams and lakefront beaches. Having lived in both places (our last Chicago house was near Addison and Central Park) there is no comparison in terms of value received per Dollar spent. You can live in a nicer house, on a bigger lot, for less money in the purchase price and less money spent yearly on taxes in Texas than you can in Chicagoland. And you can leave your snow shovels, windshield ice scrapers and sidewalk rock salt behind for your neighbors. In my line of work I make approximately the same whether I work in Texas or Illinois. By living in Texas, with no income tax and much lower COMPARABLE housing prices, our salary Dollars go farther. So I have more left at the end of the month to invest and save. And we want for nothing (except those addicting Ricobene's breaded steak sandwiches dipped in tomato sauce and the Pizza). I'm not totally down on Chicago. I wish the crime rate were lower, and from a recent report on the news they seem to have a rat problem....but it is still a world class city. But Covid is going to take a toll on all big cities. Public transportation is going to be suspect as a driver of virus spread. And more people are going to be allowed to work from home, negating the need to live close into a central business district. And lastly, some of the reasons for living in the city...the theaters, restaurants and bars might not survive the pandemic. If people don't revert back to their old ways then those amenities might not be available. Many are hanging by a thread and their survival is touch and go. If the fall and winter bring a severe Covid resurgence those communal gathering places will not survive. Further reducing the attractiveness of city living.


It’s pretty hard to follow this without any line breaks, but comparing a house in Austin (a huge diverse city) to a house in Downers Grove (a small, well-off suburb) is not even close to apples-to-apples. Of course homes values are higher in Downers Grove the median income is almost $100k. A home in Portage Park, a neighborhood in Chicago, is a much better comparison. (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/4032-N-Mason-Ave-60634/home/13474169). 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, good schools, $4,500 property taxes, very low crime. Or maybe Jefferson Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5202-W-Strong-St-60630/home/12665165) a 4 bed, 3 bath, $449k, $5,500 property taxes, great schools, low crime, public transportation. Or maybe Norwood Park (https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/5912-N-Newburg-Ave-60631/home/13506782) 4 bed, 4 bath, $439k, low crime, $5,000 property taxes, really good schools. Each of these homes have far smaller lots than you mentioned. The flip side is the ability to walk your kids to school, the park, the library, the train, etc. The point isn’t that one is “better” or “cheaper” than the other, the point is that you can get a 4 beds and 3 baths SFH in Chicago for about the same as Austin. The schools might even be better and your property taxes might be less in Chicago, but you’ll have a smaller yard and pay income tax.

The prospect of COVID this spring shouldn’t really impact someone taking on a 30-year mortgage. Live music and restaurants aren’t likely going to close forever. The museums (which Austin isn’t in the same category as Chicago) have already re-opened. City’s have survived pandemics before, it’s likely they will again. Either way, the home values in my neighborhood are doing just fine and all the renovations/tear downs suggest this part of the city will do just fine (sorry to burst your bubble).

Your views aren’t that surprising given your “ANTIFA is destroying Portland” comment. The problem is when facts meet political bias, the facts win. There must be something about Chicago/Illinois when people who haven’t lived here for 15 years still follow it so closely to know the status of it’s rats and politics.


Would also note that 625k for a 4bed 3bath house is really expensive for Downer's Grove. Maybe if it's a 4000 square foot house or much bigger than the 2200 square foot one in Austin as a comparison. Otherwise, it's pretty trivial to find houses matching that description in Downer's for 350-450k depending on amenity quality if you only want 2200 square feet.


It's a little on the high side, but not too uncommon. Downers Grove has a few nicer neighborhoods, and also others with average size houses but larger size lots. This is where I grew up, and my parents still live there and have a one acre three bedroom house, and the neighbor still has three acres.

With that being said, I live in a 80 year old home in a town near by, and have 5 bedrooms. but my home is just valued at about $300,000. The entire top level was never finished ever since it was built and is just studed out for two bedrooms and a bath/ The basement is also unfinished. So I effectively have three bedrooms, a Kitchen and a living room and dining room on the mid level.

Prior to this home I have now, I spent 10 years in a three bedroom house in Hoffman Estates. The two homes were a even swap plus $3000 bucks, In the swap I got a much larger home, and over twice the yard size in the move.

Image

I also like how the new yard is completely secluded in all directions. In Hoffman Estates, any time I walked into the tiny back yard I had 4 neighbors homes windows staring at me. I now have a fire pit in the back corner of this photo, and could light it up whenever I want. Or could practice archery shooting the target seen mid photo on the left any day of the week. The newer yard goes all the back to the tree line, even though it looks sectioned off by the island in the middle. (which is no longer there). I have since moved the flowers out to the perimeter.

Taxes between the two places are similar.

I also have a 2nd place a hour south with three acres split among my siblings (Not Inherited, But purchased four ways as a family), and taxes there are super in-expensive.

A photo from last weekend at the other place.

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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#164 » by dougthonus » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:31 pm

2018C3 wrote:It's a little on the high side, but not too uncommon. Downers Grove has a few nicer neighborhoods, and also others with average size houses but larger size lots. This is where I grew up, and my parents still live there and have a one acre three bedroom house, and the neighbor still has three acres.


Just glancing around on redfin, I didn't see a single house in Downers grove that was going for 625k and was only 2200 square feet. There is stuff around 625, but its generally considerably bigger (not sure if i saw anything in that price range under 3000 square feet).

With that being said, I live in a 80 year old home in a town near by, and have 5 bedrooms. but my home is just valued at about $300,000. The entire top level was never finished ever since it was built and is just studed out for two bedrooms and a bath/ The basement is also unfinished. So I effectively have three bedrooms, a Kitchen and a living room and dining room on the mid level.

Prior to this home I have now, I spent 10 years in a three bedroom house in Hoffman Estates. The two homes were a even swap plus $3000 bucks, In the swap I got a much larger home, and over twice the yard size in the move.

Image

I also like how the new yard is completely secluded in all directions. In Hoffman Estates, any time I walked into the tiny back yard I had 4 neighbors homes windows staring at me. I now have a fire pit in the back corner of this photo, and could light it up whenever I want. Or could practice archery shooting the target seen mid photo on the left any day of the week. The newer yard goes all the back to the tree line, even though it looks sectioned off by the island in the middle. (which is no longer there). I have since moved the flowers out to the perimeter.

Taxes between the two places are similar.

I also have a 2nd place a hour south with three acres split among my siblings (Not Inherited, But purchased four ways as a family), and taxes there are super in-expensive.

A photo from last weekend at the other place.

Image



We don't have quite your yard of no neighbors, and we only have a relative normal sized yard, but we have a church on our block that owns the middle ground between us and the neighbors behind us, so they are effectively so far away you can't see them and have a row of trees blocking their property, we also have a huge row of trees blocking our neighbors on the left, so we only have neighbors on one side and also have a huge, huge open space.

We built a sun room back there and just rebuilt our deck and sit in one of those places (now sun room due to cold) every day and enjoy the open view and general lack of neighbors (just one side). I never thought I'd really care about that type of thing personally, but its been a hidden treasure of the house, and one of the main reasons we don't want to move due to that combination with other things like being less than 1 mile from the train / school district / great high way access etc.

Some of those things may not matter much in the future since I'm full time remote now, and we only have two years left of the kids in HS.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#165 » by Friend_Of_Haley » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:42 am

So I think I'm gonna vote yes. I don't really like the tax plan they're gonna implement if it passes, and I still think there are more important things they could have addressed. But a graduated rate will allow for greater flexibility in the future. Tackle pension reform, property tax reform.... Changing the structure/rates down the road will only take a simple legislative majority.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#166 » by TheStig » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:08 am

It will be seen if they deliver on the promises of reforms and property tax relief but I think this is a given. If it doesn't pass, then all the taxes are going up. While I'm uncomfortable giving a failed state government flexibility, I think the alternative is worse. I'm going to vote for this.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#167 » by Almost Retired » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:15 pm

I voted against it years ago...I voted with my feet. They could raise the top rate to 20% on all those rich people in Illinois ad they would still not raise enough revenue to pay their current bills, let alone bail out their underwater pensions. I can look at this issue dispassionately because we no no longer reside in Illinois. But the math is the math. Illinois has to trim about 33% of its spending. It no longer has the tax base to support all the layers of government and all the pension promises. It isn't a political issue. It's math.

From Wirepoints.org:

This Is How A State Goes Bankrupt, Illinois Edition
Sat, 10/24/2020 - 15:30

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Somewhere back in the depths of the 20th century, a bunch of governors, mayors, and public sector union leaders got together and cooked up one of history’s greatest financial scams. They would offer teachers, cops, and firefighters extremely generous pensions but would avoid raising taxes to fund the resulting future obligations. Grateful workers would vote to re-elect their benefactors, while taxpayers would appreciate the combination of excellent public services and low taxes.

The beauty of the scheme flowed from its demographics: Most of the original public sector workers were young and therefore decades away from retirement, so the crime wouldn’t be discovered until long after the architects retired rich and revered.

Now, however, those baby boomer workers are retiring and the scam is revealed for all to see. Even in the absence of a pandemic lockdown, mass defaults on state and city obligations would be inevitable in the coming decade. But with the lockdown, they’re coming next year.

So what do the worst offenders do? What they’ve always done, of course, which is to look for ways to paper over the mess for one more election cycle. Illinois is the poster child for state financial mismanagement, with unfunded liabilities that have grown from virtually nothing to $137 billion in just the past two decades....
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#168 » by TheStig » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:27 pm

Almost Retired wrote:I voted against it years ago...I voted with my feet. They could raise the top rate to 20% on all those rich people in Illinois ad they would still not raise enough revenue to pay their current bills, let alone bail out their underwater pensions. I can look at this issue dispassionately because we no no longer reside in Illinois. But the math is the math. Illinois has to trim about 33% of its spending. It no longer has the tax base to support all the layers of government and all the pension promises. It isn't a political issue. It's math.

From Wirepoints.org:

This Is How A State Goes Bankrupt, Illinois Edition
Sat, 10/24/2020 - 15:30

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Somewhere back in the depths of the 20th century, a bunch of governors, mayors, and public sector union leaders got together and cooked up one of history’s greatest financial scams. They would offer teachers, cops, and firefighters extremely generous pensions but would avoid raising taxes to fund the resulting future obligations. Grateful workers would vote to re-elect their benefactors, while taxpayers would appreciate the combination of excellent public services and low taxes.

The beauty of the scheme flowed from its demographics: Most of the original public sector workers were young and therefore decades away from retirement, so the crime wouldn’t be discovered until long after the architects retired rich and revered.

Now, however, those baby boomer workers are retiring and the scam is revealed for all to see. Even in the absence of a pandemic lockdown, mass defaults on state and city obligations would be inevitable in the coming decade. But with the lockdown, they’re coming next year.

So what do the worst offenders do? What they’ve always done, of course, which is to look for ways to paper over the mess for one more election cycle. Illinois is the poster child for state financial mismanagement, with unfunded liabilities that have grown from virtually nothing to $137 billion in just the past two decades....

It's fair to look at the cause to avoid it in the future. Though I think it's more on the underfunding than the actual pensions per say. But there needs to be a solution. You can't have it carry on forever. The pensions aren't going away.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#169 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:40 pm

TheStig wrote:It's fair to look at the cause to avoid it in the future. Though I think it's more on the underfunding than the actual pensions per say. But there needs to be a solution. You can't have it carry on forever. The pensions aren't going away.


If private enterprise operated like the state of Illinois, it would have gone bankrupt. Effectively, between guaranteed raises, pensions, tenure (and whatever you want to call the near complete inability to fire any public sector worker that isn't a teacher), they built out a cost that is too high for what it delivers.

Instead of going bankrupt, they just raise tax obligations which are among the worst in the country already and projected to be 3rd worst in the country if this passes. Will the tax penalties/weather overwhelm the benefits of Chicago? If work forces go more remote, that seems highly likely over the next 20 years.

I'd love to get the heck out of Illinois, but I have a lot of ties (like many people whom have lived here most of their lives) to the area, and it would be hard to move. I will say when my mom (69) is gone and if my kids / step kids move away (oldest is graduating college in a year, youngest is a sophomore in HS), then I will highly likely move, but fair chance that's 20 years away still, which conveniently is also right about the time I will be looking to retire.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#170 » by TheStig » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:13 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:It's fair to look at the cause to avoid it in the future. Though I think it's more on the underfunding than the actual pensions per say. But there needs to be a solution. You can't have it carry on forever. The pensions aren't going away.


If private enterprise operated like the state of Illinois, it would have gone bankrupt. Effectively, between guaranteed raises, pensions, tenure (and whatever you want to call the near complete inability to fire any public sector worker that isn't a teacher), they built out a cost that is too high for what it delivers.

Instead of going bankrupt, they just raise tax obligations which are among the worst in the country already and projected to be 3rd worst in the country if this passes. Will the tax penalties/weather overwhelm the benefits of Chicago? If work forces go more remote, that seems highly likely over the next 20 years.

I'd love to get the heck out of Illinois, but I have a lot of ties (like many people whom have lived here most of their lives) to the area, and it would be hard to move. I will say when my mom (69) is gone and if my kids / step kids move away (oldest is graduating college in a year, youngest is a sophomore in HS), then I will highly likely move, but fair chance that's 20 years away still, which conveniently is also right about the time I will be looking to retire.


To be fair Doug, when private enterprise overextends itself, the fed will bail them out at crisis like 2008 and this past year. The Fed has spent trillions, yes trillions of dollars, buying and reinforcing private industry buying up bonds and mortgages this year. The airline industry, was propped up with hundreds of billions of dollars in the cares act too. And that's after many have restructured their debts and gone bankrupt in the past. This country is full of crony capitalism. There are many zombie companies out there now.

I say this because the only way out of this for Illinois is a combination of restructuring this debt and pensions and some sort of bail out or federal assistance. Private industry is not immune to this. Many of our most prominent companies have failed and were bailed out. The same assistance whether it be loans, grants or otherwise should be given to states.

I am curious, are these same pensions and benefits being given to new employees? IE have they done anything to stop the bleeding.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#171 » by jmajew » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:14 pm

What is really amazing about this is a large part of my family are cops and all of them are Republicans and support the right more than anything. However, they are all vehemently against this fair tax. They think taxation is unfair, blah blah blah. What they don't seem to realize that without this increase it will be even harder to pay their pensions/benefits. They would rather see others suffer than them lose what was given to them.

The obvious solution to a problem like this is something down the middle. I've said this before. The solution to our problem is two fold. Pass this graduated tax and lock in the rates. Then you set up a balance budget amendment. If those two things happen at some point we will solve our problem and over a little time it will lead to us being able to reinvest our money back into our state. Problem is both the Republicans and Democrats aren't willing to do this. Its the sad reality of our new socially connected society. These politicians don't do what is right because they see the instant feedback by those for or against it. Social media in general has caused our society to rupture..I honestly do not see how we recover.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#172 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:43 pm

TheStig wrote:To be fair Doug, when private enterprise overextends itself, the fed will bail them out at crisis like 2008 and this past year. The Fed has spent trillions, yes trillions of dollars, buying and reinforcing private industry buying up bonds and mortgages this year. The airline industry, was propped up with hundreds of billions of dollars in the cares act too. And that's after many have restructured their debts and gone bankrupt in the past. This country is full of crony capitalism. There are many zombie companies out there now.

I say this because the only way out of this for Illinois is a combination of restructuring this debt and pensions and some sort of bail out or federal assistance. Private industry is not immune to this. Many of our most prominent companies have failed and were bailed out. The same assistance whether it be loans, grants or otherwise should be given to states.


In times of massive crisis, like right now, or in 2008 when the entire financial industry was on the verge of collapse, this is true. However, many other companies just simply close up shop and are done. Yes, private industry also suffers from these problems, but the vast majority of the time it does, it just goes out of business. There are occasional bailouts in extreme times, but if Illinois (like many states) needs federal help during a pandemic then that's one thing, but we're not talking about Illinois needing help due to extreme circumstances, we're talking about it needing help due to gross mismanagement for 30+ years. Companies aren't bailed out for that.

I am curious, are these same pensions and benefits being given to new employees? IE have they done anything to stop the bleeding.


My understanding is they have not stopped the bleeding.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#173 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:48 pm

jmajew wrote:What is really amazing about this is a large part of my family are cops and all of them are Republicans and support the right more than anything. However, they are all vehemently against this fair tax. They think taxation is unfair, blah blah blah. What they don't seem to realize that without this increase it will be even harder to pay their pensions/benefits. They would rather see others suffer than them lose what was given to them.

The obvious solution to a problem like this is something down the middle. I've said this before. The solution to our problem is two fold. Pass this graduated tax and lock in the rates. Then you set up a balance budget amendment. If those two things happen at some point we will solve our problem and over a little time it will lead to us being able to reinvest our money back into our state. Problem is both the Republicans and Democrats aren't willing to do this. Its the sad reality of our new socially connected society. These politicians don't do what is right because they see the instant feedback by those for or against it. Social media in general has caused our society to rupture..I honestly do not see how we recover.


I don't think our society is any particular bad place as a whole, for some great perspective, take a look at this:

https://www.whiterocklocators.com/blog/imagine-if-you-were-born-1900

It’s a mess out there now. Hard to discern between what’s a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.

On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.

On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.

When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. And don’t try to catch your breath. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.

Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40’s, as it killed 300 million people during your lifetime.

At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you were 55, you dealt with the fear of polio epidemics each summer. You experience friends and family contracting polio and being paralyzed and/or dying.

At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict. During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended. When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#174 » by TheStig » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:09 pm

dougthonus wrote:
TheStig wrote:To be fair Doug, when private enterprise overextends itself, the fed will bail them out at crisis like 2008 and this past year. The Fed has spent trillions, yes trillions of dollars, buying and reinforcing private industry buying up bonds and mortgages this year. The airline industry, was propped up with hundreds of billions of dollars in the cares act too. And that's after many have restructured their debts and gone bankrupt in the past. This country is full of crony capitalism. There are many zombie companies out there now.

I say this because the only way out of this for Illinois is a combination of restructuring this debt and pensions and some sort of bail out or federal assistance. Private industry is not immune to this. Many of our most prominent companies have failed and were bailed out. The same assistance whether it be loans, grants or otherwise should be given to states.


In times of massive crisis, like right now, or in 2008 when the entire financial industry was on the verge of collapse, this is true. However, many other companies just simply close up shop and are done. Yes, private industry also suffers from these problems, but the vast majority of the time it does, it just goes out of business. There are occasional bailouts in extreme times, but if Illinois (like many states) needs federal help during a pandemic then that's one thing, but we're not talking about Illinois needing help due to extreme circumstances, we're talking about it needing help due to gross mismanagement for 30+ years. Companies aren't bailed out for that.

I am curious, are these same pensions and benefits being given to new employees? IE have they done anything to stop the bleeding.


My understanding is they have not stopped the bleeding.

I don't know. What you described sounds a lot like GM. And they were bailed out.

I think that these giant companies do get bailed out. The issues that got them there build through out the years and then it becomes a boiling point like 2008 and now. Very rarely do these types of things happen to healthy companies. The fact of the matter is that if they were properly managed with reserves, it wouldn't destroy them and they would have contingencies. And that just isn't capitalism. Capitalism is that the strongest survive and grow. If you're bailing out the zombies that had issues going into this, then you're just supporting crony capitalism and the lobbying culture that gets these guys the breaks. What should happen is that a major company will fail and a new or smaller and better thought out one will grow. It's the small companies and people that go under without a real stimulus. It's also small companies that fight on these unlevel playing grounds where they don't get the support and pay heavy taxes. Why does Amazon pay nothing in taxes and your local shoppe pays a good percentage?

I would also note that the state is between a rock and a hard place. They cannot restructure these pension commitments or declare bankruptcy. They really have no out from where they are and it falls on people like us with these $hitty property taxes and taxes. That's why I believe the feds should do something to assist or change the rules. It's great to wag your finger at IL (and I'm not saying you are) but they could have Ted Cruz come in and be Gov and nothing would really change. At this point there is no political solution that they have.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#175 » by Almost Retired » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:10 pm

The problem is insurmountable without a Constitutional change at the state level that would allow a cram down in order to preserve some benefits for the vast majority of the retirees. And the automatic COLA has to be eliminated. They politicians allowed the pension debts to grow too large to be manageable. And the shortfalls exist even with the stock market at nosebleed levels by historical metrics. History alone would indicate that at some point we are going to get a significant pull back in the markets. My intense study of the markets lead me to predict that we are going to be engulfed in a full blown generational bear market within the next 2 years.

As with the profligate States the Federal Government is too far into debt. For every $10 of Federal Government debt it takes in $1 of tax revenue. To put it into perspective it would be like buying a $1 Million Dollar house on a $100K salary . The math doesn't work. And the struggling states probably shouldn't hang their hopes on a Federal bail out. That would be politically troublesome, asking the citizens of states that lived within their means, like Wisconsin, to bail out the big spender states. I doubt Trump would make that a priority if he gets reelected (as I expect.) And if Harris-Biden wins they will be faced with a bare cupboard. America is $27 Trillion (officially) in debt. 50 cents of every Dollar the Federal government spends today is borrowed or digitally printed out of thin air. Any bail out would have to be the same borrowed or printed money. At some point the US Dollar will collapse. I hate to be the harbinger of bad news. But I can do math. And I understand economics. We have all been betrayed by decades of our politicians' profligate spending. Remember, all debt are paid in one way or another. By the borrower, by the lender through default, or through inflation which is a permanent "tax" on the wealth and earnings of the citizens.

The bottom line is that it will not matter whether the tax passes or not, It will not result in the additional revenues projected. People are not chained to Illinois. Enough will leave that it will probably be a wash from a revenue perspective. Nothing is going to rescue Illinois but a large sharp scalpel to government spending and a Constitutional amendment allowing unilateral adjustments to the State's defined benefit retirement plans. Anything else is just another kick the can down the road temporary scheme.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#176 » by TheStig » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:14 pm

dougthonus wrote:
jmajew wrote:What is really amazing about this is a large part of my family are cops and all of them are Republicans and support the right more than anything. However, they are all vehemently against this fair tax. They think taxation is unfair, blah blah blah. What they don't seem to realize that without this increase it will be even harder to pay their pensions/benefits. They would rather see others suffer than them lose what was given to them.

The obvious solution to a problem like this is something down the middle. I've said this before. The solution to our problem is two fold. Pass this graduated tax and lock in the rates. Then you set up a balance budget amendment. If those two things happen at some point we will solve our problem and over a little time it will lead to us being able to reinvest our money back into our state. Problem is both the Republicans and Democrats aren't willing to do this. Its the sad reality of our new socially connected society. These politicians don't do what is right because they see the instant feedback by those for or against it. Social media in general has caused our society to rupture..I honestly do not see how we recover.


I don't think our society is any particular bad place as a whole, for some great perspective, take a look at this:

https://www.whiterocklocators.com/blog/imagine-if-you-were-born-1900

It’s a mess out there now. Hard to discern between what’s a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.

On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.

On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.

When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. And don’t try to catch your breath. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.

Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40’s, as it killed 300 million people during your lifetime.

At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you were 55, you dealt with the fear of polio epidemics each summer. You experience friends and family contracting polio and being paralyzed and/or dying.

At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict. During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended. When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends.

It's not quite even because our Wars are not as deadly these days but look at a millineals life.

As a child there is a drug, crime and aids epidemic. As a young teen you have the dot com recession, followed a few years later by a 08 financial crisis when you're entering the workforce and takes a decade to recover, giant student loans because everyone needs a degree and now covid recession and pandemic that will linger and possibly a looming civil war and housing crisis all by early to mid 30's. Meanwhile unlike that individual, your wages will not really rise and you're saddled with so much debt unlike any other generation.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#177 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:23 pm

TheStig wrote:I think that these giant companies do get bailed out. The issues that got them there build through out the years and then it becomes a boiling point like 2008 and now. Very rarely do these types of things happen to healthy companies. The fact of the matter is that if they were properly managed with reserves, it wouldn't destroy them and they would have contingencies. And that just isn't capitalism. Capitalism is that the strongest survive and grow. If you're bailing out the zombies that had issues going into this, then you're just supporting crony capitalism and the lobbying culture that gets these guys the breaks. What should happen is that a major company will fail and a new or smaller and better thought out one will grow. It's the small companies and people that go under without a real stimulus. It's also small companies that fight on these unlevel playing grounds where they don't get the support and pay heavy taxes. Why does Amazon pay nothing in taxes and your local shoppe pays a good percentage?


There are certainly times this happens, but again, its a very significant minority of times.

I would also note that the state is between a rock and a hard place. They cannot restructure these pension commitments or declare bankruptcy. They really have no out from where they are and it falls on people like us with these $hitty property taxes and taxes. That's why I believe the feds should do something to assist or change the rules. It's great to wag your finger at IL (and I'm not saying you are) but they could have Ted Cruz come in and be Gov and nothing would really change. At this point there is no political solution that they have.


I agree that they are between a rock and a hard place, except that they CAN restructure these pension commitments. They could at least go back and remove all the crappy fake deals they made where people got double salary raises in their last 3 years to add 2 million dollars to their lifetime pension benefits to start with. They could also negotiate this down, and say if you don't agree to something else, we're just not paying at all.

At the very minimum, they could at least stop the bleeding on the problem so it doesn't continue to accrue and get worse. If they did that, then I'd be much more content to put more money into the system (though the massive marriage penalty they created would still piss me off to no end).
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#178 » by jmajew » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:24 pm

dougthonus wrote:
jmajew wrote:What is really amazing about this is a large part of my family are cops and all of them are Republicans and support the right more than anything. However, they are all vehemently against this fair tax. They think taxation is unfair, blah blah blah. What they don't seem to realize that without this increase it will be even harder to pay their pensions/benefits. They would rather see others suffer than them lose what was given to them.

The obvious solution to a problem like this is something down the middle. I've said this before. The solution to our problem is two fold. Pass this graduated tax and lock in the rates. Then you set up a balance budget amendment. If those two things happen at some point we will solve our problem and over a little time it will lead to us being able to reinvest our money back into our state. Problem is both the Republicans and Democrats aren't willing to do this. Its the sad reality of our new socially connected society. These politicians don't do what is right because they see the instant feedback by those for or against it. Social media in general has caused our society to rupture..I honestly do not see how we recover.


I don't think our society is any particular bad place as a whole, for some great perspective, take a look at this:

https://www.whiterocklocators.com/blog/imagine-if-you-were-born-1900

It’s a mess out there now. Hard to discern between what’s a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.

On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.

On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.

When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. And don’t try to catch your breath. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.

Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40’s, as it killed 300 million people during your lifetime.

At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you were 55, you dealt with the fear of polio epidemics each summer. You experience friends and family contracting polio and being paralyzed and/or dying.

At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict. During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended. When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends.


I read Tom Brokaw's The Greatest Generation every couple of years to help remind myself.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#179 » by dougthonus » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:36 pm

TheStig wrote:It's not quite even because our Wars are not as deadly these days but look at a millineals life.

As a child there is a drug, crime and aids epidemic. As a young teen you have the dot com recession, followed a few years later by a 08 financial crisis when you're entering the workforce and takes a decade to recover, giant student loans because everyone needs a degree and now covid recession and pandemic that will linger and possibly a looming civil war and housing crisis all by early to mid 30's. Meanwhile unlike that individual, your wages will not really rise and you're saddled with so much debt unlike any other generation.


There's not really a crime epidemic though compared to other time periods to my knowledge, the number of people that died in the AIDS epidemic (or any medical reasons) is just laughably small compared to medical deaths 100 years ago when you had things like small pox or polio hanging around. The financial crisis was bad, but it has got nothing on the great depression in terms of how long it lasted or its impact.

Whatever our political crisis are now, its hard to put it in comparison to when we were literally scared of nuclear war breaking out and destroying the whole world on a daily basis or McCarthyism in general.

There are real problems for millennials / gen z of course:
1: Most weren't coached well on college and spent 4x as much as they should have and then ended up in bad debt. This was especially bad for the group that got advice from their parents like "just get any degree" because that was great advice 50 years ago when no one had a degree but was awful advice 10-15 years ago when it was still handed out.

2: Less class mobility than in the past, especially if you didn't land in one of the magic careers. Less opportunity for non scholastically bent people to be successful, costs have probably risen about 2-3x compared to minimum wage over the past 30 years, so if you are a basic retail / service worker, your life is lower quality than in the past.

However, compared to problems in the past, the problems we have as a nation now don't seem so threatening. That said, time healed a lot of those problems whereas now our problems feel very systemic. Our political system being run by the wealthy for the wealthy combined with a whole new level of automation makes it increasingly less likely we'll ever have class mobility come back to what it used to be.
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Re: OT: Illinois fair tax: yes or no? 

Post#180 » by 2018C3 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:38 pm

On this board I actually voted yes in principal, but think its a shaky road to go down,

I have not researched all the details. On one hand the rich could easily take on more of the burden, but at the same time it would be devastating to the job market if they just picked up there corporations and left the state.

Fair tax is a little misleading, because even though the highest earners may pay less of a percentage of earnings, They still pay way more in other ways than most of us.

Some incentives in one way or another have to be provided to help keep large corporate businesses in Illinois. If not the common jobs most of us have will suffer.

A better plan. may be to come up with a some type of formula, that taxes businesses on net profit, in proportion to the salaries they pay out towards all there employees. That way business owners could still personally profit, but have some incentives to stay in the state amd pay there employees a reasonable wage.

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