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OT: COVID-19 thread #4

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#221 » by bentheredengthat » Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:37 pm

Ccwatercraft wrote:
bentheredengthat wrote:After being exceptionally careful, doing zoom meetings all year with clients, my mom decided this is the holiday season to fly my oldest sister and her husband down to FL from the Detroit area. My sister's side of the family apparently doesn't believe in contraceptives, so she has somewhere approaching 20 grandkids (I've lost track lol).

So I was already trying to figure out how to deal with family get togethers with them around. My sister is a teacher in a private religious school.

Last night they decided they want to save money on rental car and the now the family has asked me to pick them up for an hour drive home from the airport.

Meanwhile my best friend and his wife and 2 kids have been preparing all year for a trip down here, they have been isolating, are driving down and staying at the beach safely isolated and we can hang out together mostly outside.

Now I have to figure out how to deal with my family's irresponsibility... I'm not even sure I can safely hang out with my friends while they are here... Last thing I need to do is be part of a vector from Detroit to Florida to my friends school in Iowa (she's a teacher too).

To me the whole episode is glaring example of one group of people carefully planning and openly discussing safe travel plans, and another group of people not even thinking, or asking, or discussing what their actions do to those around them.


Sounds like you have some tough decisions to make. I personally wouldn't be all fired up about the Airport trip, ugh. Perhaps that is a good day to be "otherwise occupied" and let someone else be voluntold to go pick them up. With that said, I've already been informed and agreed that I'm the designated airport pickup for my kid flying in right before Christmas so I'm not exactly leading by example. :( I'm sure I've done much worse than that since this started so its nothing new.

When we had visitors from Illinois (and the state seems to be doing terrible with this) we nixed the thanksgiving visit and caught up with them over the weekend for some outdoor dining and a beach walk, it seemed safer for all parties.



My other sister helped me find a chauffer that she knew. Little bit pricey, but at least we're not sending someone we don't know to pick them up.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just bugs me that after bring so careful all year, I'm kind of forced into unsafe and unnecessary (in my opinion) risky behavior for all involved.

Not to jinx myself, but I'm not the one I'm worried about. My visiting sister, her husband, and my parents are by far in the highest risk category, but they are initiating it all.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#222 » by moorhosj » Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:57 pm

logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


It's not that complicated as deaths are not the only indicator to show us the current state of COVID. Also, the CDC provides this clarification in the data; "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks." Finally, We know the process goes: increased infections -> increased hospitalizations -> increased deaths. We have observed the first two pretty clearly, the third is likely just a matter of time.

Comments like yours seem more like you are implying some type of conspiracy rather than informing on facts.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#223 » by Ccwatercraft » Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:09 pm

bentheredengthat wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
bentheredengthat wrote:After being exceptionally careful, doing zoom meetings all year with clients, my mom decided this is the holiday season to fly my oldest sister and her husband down to FL from the Detroit area. My sister's side of the family apparently doesn't believe in contraceptives, so she has somewhere approaching 20 grandkids (I've lost track lol).

So I was already trying to figure out how to deal with family get togethers with them around. My sister is a teacher in a private religious school.

Last night they decided they want to save money on rental car and the now the family has asked me to pick them up for an hour drive home from the airport.

Meanwhile my best friend and his wife and 2 kids have been preparing all year for a trip down here, they have been isolating, are driving down and staying at the beach safely isolated and we can hang out together mostly outside.

Now I have to figure out how to deal with my family's irresponsibility... I'm not even sure I can safely hang out with my friends while they are here... Last thing I need to do is be part of a vector from Detroit to Florida to my friends school in Iowa (she's a teacher too).

To me the whole episode is glaring example of one group of people carefully planning and openly discussing safe travel plans, and another group of people not even thinking, or asking, or discussing what their actions do to those around them.


Sounds like you have some tough decisions to make. I personally wouldn't be all fired up about the Airport trip, ugh. Perhaps that is a good day to be "otherwise occupied" and let someone else be voluntold to go pick them up. With that said, I've already been informed and agreed that I'm the designated airport pickup for my kid flying in right before Christmas so I'm not exactly leading by example. :( I'm sure I've done much worse than that since this started so its nothing new.

When we had visitors from Illinois (and the state seems to be doing terrible with this) we nixed the thanksgiving visit and caught up with them over the weekend for some outdoor dining and a beach walk, it seemed safer for all parties.



My other sister helped me find a chauffer that she knew. Little bit pricey, but at least we're not sending someone we don't know to pick them up.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just bugs me that after bring so careful all year, I'm kind of forced into unsafe and unnecessary (in my opinion) risky behavior for all involved.

Not to jinx myself, but I'm not the one I'm worried about. My visiting sister, her husband, and my parents are by far in the highest risk category, but they are initiating it all.


What exactly are you being forced to do?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#224 » by TheSuzerain » Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:47 pm

Bentheredengthat's story sounds like a great plot for COVID Vacation starring Chevy Chase.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#225 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:30 pm

logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


You should talk to the doctors and nurses who work in ICU's that are at capacity, and ask them why there is any panic....
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#226 » by logical_art » Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:52 pm

moorhosj wrote:
logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


It's not that complicated as deaths are not the only indicator to show us the current state of COVID. Also, the CDC provides this clarification in the data; "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks." Finally, We know the process goes: increased infections -> increased hospitalizations -> increased deaths. We have observed the first two pretty clearly, the third is likely just a matter of time.

Comments like yours seem more like you are implying some type of conspiracy rather than informing on facts.


There's no implication of conspiracy. Just of the common social phenomena of hysteria, driven by the media: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w28110.pdf
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#227 » by logical_art » Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:54 pm

Dresden wrote:
logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


You should talk to the doctors and nurses who work in ICU's that are at capacity, and ask them why there is any panic....


Have you collected this anecdotal evidence yourself? Nevertheless, it's anecdotal.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#228 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:11 pm

logical_art wrote:
Dresden wrote:
logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


You should talk to the doctors and nurses who work in ICU's that are at capacity, and ask them why there is any panic....


Have you collected this anecdotal evidence yourself? Nevertheless, it's anecdotal.


Unbelievable. You don't believe the statistics showing the capacity of ICU's around the country, and that they are nearing or over capacity? That they are shuttling patients from one hospital to another due to shortages of beds and staff? Can you really not imagine what a burden that places on the people working there? In Sweden, over 3,000 nurses have quit since this began. I don't know numbers for the US, but there has also been a lot of people leaving the field due to the working conditions and the stress. And all you can say is "this is anecdotal?" Have some heart man.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#229 » by step » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:11 pm

logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I love how nonchalant your are talking about excess deaths. Nothing to worry about guys... everything is pretty normal.
While that may be the case according to the 'stats', you know what it doesn't show, that any death related to this is largely considered by the rest of the world, a waste. Christ two days ago, 3600 people died in the US alone. That's 4x more deaths than we've had here in Oz for the entire time. But don't worry guys, the status is quo.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#230 » by ImSlower » Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:20 pm

One of my childhood friends is an ICU nurse, and she put up a pretty powerful message the other day on FB, my paraphrasing can't match her emotion, alas:

"This year will have changed me forever. And not just because of the dozens of people whose eyes I have watched close for the last time, or the families I've watched suffer their grief through a window. I am a changed person, because I will never be able to look people I know in the eye, people who have consistently shrugged off this virus as a political tool, who have turned away from so many of us crying out for help, begging the skeptics to listen to us. You know who you are, and when you and I meet again, no, you will never look the same."

2021 Will Be Better*, but there will remain a century worth of emotion just from this world-changing event, much of it negative. There's going to be a lot of festering animosity and resentment in the guts of people all over the world, no matter their experiences or beliefs this past year. I can only hope there's a bit more Kumbaya and a bit less Covfefe.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#231 » by dice » Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:41 am

step wrote:
logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I love how nonchalant your are talking about excess deaths. Nothing to worry about guys... everything is pretty normal.
While that may be the case according to the 'stats', you know what it doesn't show, that any death related to this is largely considered by the rest of the world, a waste. Christ two days ago, 3600 people died in the US alone. That's 4x more deaths than we've had here in Oz for the entire time. But don't worry guys, the status is quo.

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#232 » by coldfish » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:42 pm

logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


First off, there is some lag in death reporting. The recent numbers will go up.

Beyond that, a lot of the people that are dying were in long term care facilities and not in the best of health. People who were dying of covid in March might have been dying in November from congestive heart failure. That is probably suppressing the number of deaths right now. In the long term, there are no excess deaths when you look at a long enough time period. The unfortunate implication there is that the excess death count from the CDC probably understates the number of covid fatalities.

Overall, covid is difficult to deal with in a lot of ways. When we get the flu, people have mild and severe cases but its roughly the same set of symptoms and disease. Covid is more like playing russian roullette. For most people, the covid gun goes "click". People think "hey, this is no big deal" and assume its the same for everyone. For other people, the covid gun goes "bang" and if they survive it, its a horrific experience.

I live in an area that has now been a hotspot twice. With this last round, lots and lots of people know others who had it or strongly think they did. People are now seeing that for some people its a cold and others it warrants a trip to the hospital. Doctors and society at large are starting to understand this variability more and believe people that its not that bad for most people but awful for some.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#233 » by Dresden » Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:29 pm

coldfish wrote:
I live in an area that has now been a hotspot twice. With this last round, lots and lots of people know others who had it or strongly think they did. People are now seeing that for some people its a cold and others it warrants a trip to the hospital. Doctors and society at large are starting to understand this variability more and believe people that its not that bad for most people but awful for some.


I heard Dr. Fauci comment on this a week or so ago. He said he's never seen a virus that in about 40% of the people, produces no symptoms at all, in another 40% produces pretty mild symptoms, but in 20% of cases, causes such severe cases that they require ICU treatment and will have long term problems. I might be wrong on the numbers he used, but it's just really unusual the way this virus is affecting people.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#234 » by Dresden » Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:52 pm

A video taken inside an ICU unit in rural CA, showing what it's like to work in the midst of a pandemic:

Someone should explain to these people that this is all just a phenomenon known as mass hysteria....
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#235 » by moorhosj » Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:48 am

logical_art wrote:There's no implication of conspiracy. Just of the common social phenomena of hysteria, driven by the media: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w28110.pdf


Can you explain more clearly what this working paper supposedly proves?

I see a focus on how media responded to schools opening, but no weighting based on the infection rate of that country or the deaths-per-capita. Seems like that would be pretty important context. News articles in Australia are probably more positive than US media because the situation there is objectively better, is that the media’s fault?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#236 » by Axolotl » Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:42 am

Couldn't sleep, was bored. Result: christmas angel 2020.

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#237 » by chifan1798 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:49 am

logical_art wrote:
moorhosj wrote:
logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


It's not that complicated as deaths are not the only indicator to show us the current state of COVID. Also, the CDC provides this clarification in the data; "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks." Finally, We know the process goes: increased infections -> increased hospitalizations -> increased deaths. We have observed the first two pretty clearly, the third is likely just a matter of time.

Comments like yours seem more like you are implying some type of conspiracy rather than informing on facts.


There's no implication of conspiracy. Just of the common social phenomena of hysteria, driven by the media: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w28110.pdf


It’s not hysteria, it’s reality. The reason why the numbers of deaths may not be as high as earlier in the year, could be due to a lag in numbers and how certain places report the numbers, or just the fact that since we have been dealing with this virus for almost a year now, we have managed to learn what treatments seem to work best for treating the infection, and we can now at least try to save more lives.

The concern is very real, because people are still dying. Right now, with only about 9 months of data, COVID deaths would be the 3rd leading cause of death behind only heart disease and cancer (and that is only really when we started counting deaths around March), so just imagine another 2.5 months of data, we could get close to overtaking cancer deaths. Also, even though many people manage to survive, they can still have long term adverse effects. I have seen people get blood clots, amputations, psychosis, etc as a result of their COVID infections. We tend to focus on how many people die, but forget to think about those people who get hospitalized for weeks to months, and/or have persistent side effects.

Also, keep in mind, that even though we are concerned about COVID, other diseases or illnesses don’t just suddenly stop occurring. People still come to the hospital for a myriad of reasons, but now, there are no beds. Emergency departments are on bypass, meaning that they tell ambulances not to come because they can’t accept more patients. Emergency departments are beyond capacity, because they can’t admit patients, because their are no beds on the actual medical floors. Resources are stretched thin. Patient care suffers.

So again, no, this is not media driven hysteria.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#238 » by bentheredengthat » Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:44 pm

TheSuzerain wrote:Bentheredengthat's story sounds like a great plot for COVID Vacation starring Chevy Chase.


:lol: maybe that's what it feels like too.

This holiday season has turned into some absurd reality of being stuck somewhere in between deniers, realists, and panic.

The difference is now all parties involved are showing up here from all over the place and scheduling my participation.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#239 » by dice » Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:47 am

chifan1798 wrote:
logical_art wrote:
moorhosj wrote:
It's not that complicated as deaths are not the only indicator to show us the current state of COVID. Also, the CDC provides this clarification in the data; "COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks." Finally, We know the process goes: increased infections -> increased hospitalizations -> increased deaths. We have observed the first two pretty clearly, the third is likely just a matter of time.

Comments like yours seem more like you are implying some type of conspiracy rather than informing on facts.


There's no implication of conspiracy. Just of the common social phenomena of hysteria, driven by the media: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28110/w28110.pdf


It’s not hysteria, it’s reality. The reason why the numbers of deaths may not be as high as earlier in the year, could be due to a lag in numbers and how certain places report the numbers, or just the fact that since we have been dealing with this virus for almost a year now, we have managed to learn what treatments seem to work best for treating the infection, and we can now at least try to save more lives.

The concern is very real, because people are still dying. Right now, with only about 9 months of data, COVID deaths would be the 3rd leading cause of death behind only heart disease and cancer (and that is only really when we started counting deaths around March), so just imagine another 2.5 months of data, we could get close to overtaking cancer deaths. Also, even though many people manage to survive, they can still have long term adverse effects. I have seen people get blood clots, amputations, psychosis, etc as a result of their COVID infections. We tend to focus on how many people die, but forget to think about those people who get hospitalized for weeks to months, and/or have persistent side effects.

Also, keep in mind, that even though we are concerned about COVID, other diseases or illnesses don’t just suddenly stop occurring. People still come to the hospital for a myriad of reasons, but now, there are no beds. Emergency departments are on bypass, meaning that they tell ambulances not to come because they can’t accept more patients. Emergency departments are beyond capacity, because they can’t admit patients, because their are no beds on the actual medical floors. Resources are stretched thin. Patient care suffers.

So again, no, this is not media driven hysteria.

good points here. this is as much about the deep flaws of a heavily profit-driven health care system with limited excess capacity as it is about COVID-19 specifically
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#240 » by TallDude » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:13 am

Here in Finland numbers are dropping. Problem is only few areas. Hospitals are not full and people can live pretty much normal life. I live my summerhouse now mostly. It is even more fun to work in distance. Sport trainings are limited. That is sad. And of course numbers are pretty horrible many places. And 3rd wave is coming in winter. Hopefully people take this as seriously as we do here in Finland. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/europe-covid-restrictions/index.html

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