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OT: COVID-19 thread #4

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#261 » by AirLaVine8 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:11 am

This African/UK strain has gotten to Australia. Someone who returned from the UK tested positive for it. Hopefully Queensland (the state where the case is), get it contained quick smart.

Here in South Australia we smashed that little outbreak we had. The 6 day total shutdown we had last month was lifted after just 3 days.

Now the only cases in SA are in medi hotels and are all returning South Australians
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#262 » by Dez » Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:12 am

AirLaVine8 wrote:This African/UK strain has gotten to Australia. Someone who returned from the UK tested positive for it. Hopefully Queensland (the state where the case is), get it contained quick smart.

Here in South Australia we smashed that little outbreak we had. The 6 day total shutdown we had last month was lifted after just 3 days.

Now the only cases in SA are in medi hotels and are all returning South Australians


Same we've had no locally transmitted cases for 60 days in Victoria and there's 7 in hotel quarantine which they haven't f***ed up this time.......yet.

NSW is having a surge from the Northern Beaches cluster and all states have closed their borders to them.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#263 » by Dresden » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:56 pm

Dez wrote:
AirLaVine8 wrote:This African/UK strain has gotten to Australia. Someone who returned from the UK tested positive for it. Hopefully Queensland (the state where the case is), get it contained quick smart.

Here in South Australia we smashed that little outbreak we had. The 6 day total shutdown we had last month was lifted after just 3 days.

Now the only cases in SA are in medi hotels and are all returning South Australians


Same we've had no locally transmitted cases for 60 days in Victoria and there's 7 in hotel quarantine which they haven't f***ed up this time.......yet.

NSW is having a surge from the Northern Beaches cluster and all states have closed their borders to them.


To me, that's a smart idea- restricting travel from regions that are being hit hard. I wish the US had done that when NYC was getting slammed so hard last March. It just makes a lot of sense.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#264 » by jmajew » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:20 pm

Dresden wrote:
Dez wrote:
AirLaVine8 wrote:This African/UK strain has gotten to Australia. Someone who returned from the UK tested positive for it. Hopefully Queensland (the state where the case is), get it contained quick smart.

Here in South Australia we smashed that little outbreak we had. The 6 day total shutdown we had last month was lifted after just 3 days.

Now the only cases in SA are in medi hotels and are all returning South Australians


Same we've had no locally transmitted cases for 60 days in Victoria and there's 7 in hotel quarantine which they haven't f***ed up this time.......yet.

NSW is having a surge from the Northern Beaches cluster and all states have closed their borders to them.


To me, that's a smart idea- restricting travel from regions that are being hit hard. I wish the US had done that when NYC was getting slammed so hard last March. It just makes a lot of sense.


How do they enforce a closed border? Are their police at the boundaries on every road stopping someone?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#265 » by Dresden » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Russia just revised it's death toll from Covid, from 56K to 186K. They compared year over year death totals to arrive at the increase.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#266 » by AirLaVine8 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:14 pm

jmajew wrote:
Dresden wrote:
Dez wrote:
Same we've had no locally transmitted cases for 60 days in Victoria and there's 7 in hotel quarantine which they haven't f***ed up this time.......yet.

NSW is having a surge from the Northern Beaches cluster and all states have closed their borders to them.


To me, that's a smart idea- restricting travel from regions that are being hit hard. I wish the US had done that when NYC was getting slammed so hard last March. It just makes a lot of sense.


How do they enforce a closed border? Are their police at the boundaries on every road stopping someone?


Correct. Police, Army, whatever authority they can. Luckily the NSW/Vic border, majority of it is a river hahaha. Makes it easier
RIP Kobe :cry: :cry:
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#267 » by step » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:04 am

Dresden wrote:Some good news: 14 day moving averages for both deaths and cases in the US are both negative. Only 1,230 deaths yesterday. We've been under 2,000 per day for a number of days now, and the curve is moving sharply downwards. Maybe we're seeing the end of the Thanksgiving spike. The bad news is, pretty soon we'll be seeing the Christmas surge.

I think there's going to be a bigger delay in numbers for this time period than usual.

This article doesn't paint a good picture, could be what everyone feared: https://www.9news.com.au/world/record-covid-hospitalisations-force-healthcare-workers-to-ration-care/e52b46bd-ad8d-451b-a91d-8a2fb12ecf61

The number of patients hospitalised across the US with COVID-19 is the highest it's ever been — and at this rate health experts warn some hospitals may have to ration nurses, respirators and care.
...
The United States reported 121,235 coronavirus patients in hospitals on Monday, the most ever reported on a given day during the pandemic, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

The country's proportion of ICU patients who have coronavirus also has shot up, from 16v per cent in September to 40 per cent last week, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.


With the new variant is now doing the rounds, adding that on top of a strained health system isn't going to help.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#268 » by Dresden » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:40 am

A congressman elect from Louisiana died of Covid today. He was only 41.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#269 » by jmajew » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:57 pm

AirLaVine8 wrote:
jmajew wrote:
Dresden wrote:
To me, that's a smart idea- restricting travel from regions that are being hit hard. I wish the US had done that when NYC was getting slammed so hard last March. It just makes a lot of sense.


How do they enforce a closed border? Are their police at the boundaries on every road stopping someone?


Correct. Police, Army, whatever authority they can. Luckily the NSW/Vic border, majority of it is a river hahaha. Makes it easier


I really don't know how that would have worked in the US. We have a lot more empty land and I would assume a lot more roads that cross borders
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#270 » by Ccwatercraft » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:18 pm

jmajew wrote:
AirLaVine8 wrote:
jmajew wrote:
How do they enforce a closed border? Are their police at the boundaries on every road stopping someone?


Correct. Police, Army, whatever authority they can. Luckily the NSW/Vic border, majority of it is a river hahaha. Makes it easier


I really don't know how that would have worked in the US. We have a lot more empty land and I would assume a lot more roads that cross borders


Ya, I'm thinking that Army Roadblocks would not have gone over very well here in the US. Is that even allowed?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#271 » by mlitney01 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:53 pm

Ccwatercraft wrote:
jmajew wrote:
AirLaVine8 wrote:
Correct. Police, Army, whatever authority they can. Luckily the NSW/Vic border, majority of it is a river hahaha. Makes it easier


I really don't know how that would have worked in the US. We have a lot more empty land and I would assume a lot more roads that cross borders


Ya, I'm thinking that Army Roadblocks would not have gone over very well here in the US. Is that even allowed?


I think the Govt would need to first declare martial law, but that would give certain powers to certain people that probably shouldn't have it. I'd also wonder if a bunch of idiots with guns wouldn't show up to protest their "freedoms".
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#272 » by Ccwatercraft » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:07 pm

mlitney01 wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
jmajew wrote:
I really don't know how that would have worked in the US. We have a lot more empty land and I would assume a lot more roads that cross borders


Ya, I'm thinking that Army Roadblocks would not have gone over very well here in the US. Is that even allowed?


I think the Govt would need to first declare martial law, but that would give certain powers to certain people that probably shouldn't have it. I'd also wonder if a bunch of idiots with guns wouldn't show up to protest their "freedoms".


We do set up roadblocks during hurricanes and have mandatory evacuations, but not sure if that means dragging someone out of their home I don't recall seeing it, and in the movies the actor always just tells the roadblock guy he has important things to do and they let him thru.

So then.. During states of emergency they have Road blocks that turn people away that don't live there, that's semi common, and during wildfires people can't get through right?

But this is because "you might be sick "

and now with the vaccine, will we have a new group of people that will be assuming they are immune anyway?
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#273 » by mlitney01 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:46 pm

Ccwatercraft wrote:
and now with the vaccine, will we have a new group of people that will be assuming they are immune anyway?


From my understand (could definitely be wrong), we're not sure if the vaccination will actually prevent people from contracting and spreading the disease. It will help prevent the people who contract the disease from getting the symptoms. Basically you could still be a carrier but it won't kill you.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#274 » by Jimako10 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:45 pm

mlitney01 wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
and now with the vaccine, will we have a new group of people that will be assuming they are immune anyway?


From my understand (could definitely be wrong), we're not sure if the vaccination will actually prevent people from contracting and spreading the disease. It will help prevent the people who contract the disease from getting the symptoms. Basically you could still be a carrier but it won't kill you.


You are basically right. You could still spread it even if you've been vaccinated.

https://www.ahchealthenews.com/2020/12/23/the-covid-19-vaccine-myths-vs-facts/

Myth #2: Once I get the vaccine, I’m protected so I can stop taking precautions against the virus.

Fact: We need to continue to wear masks and social distance. Eventually, once enough people are vaccinated, we can start to return to normal, but for now we must continue to take precautions. In studies surrounding the approved vaccine It is possible those vaccinated could continue to spread the virus even if they don’t get sick. It will also take time for enough people to be vaccinated in our communities in order to reduce transmission of the virus. We hope to learn more about this in time, but must continue to wear masks, social distance and wash our hands frequently.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#275 » by coldfish » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:11 pm

Jimako10 wrote:
mlitney01 wrote:
Ccwatercraft wrote:
and now with the vaccine, will we have a new group of people that will be assuming they are immune anyway?


From my understand (could definitely be wrong), we're not sure if the vaccination will actually prevent people from contracting and spreading the disease. It will help prevent the people who contract the disease from getting the symptoms. Basically you could still be a carrier but it won't kill you.


You are basically right. You could still spread it even if you've been vaccinated.

https://www.ahchealthenews.com/2020/12/23/the-covid-19-vaccine-myths-vs-facts/

Myth #2: Once I get the vaccine, I’m protected so I can stop taking precautions against the virus.

Fact: We need to continue to wear masks and social distance. Eventually, once enough people are vaccinated, we can start to return to normal, but for now we must continue to take precautions. In studies surrounding the approved vaccine It is possible those vaccinated could continue to spread the virus even if they don’t get sick. It will also take time for enough people to be vaccinated in our communities in order to reduce transmission of the virus. We hope to learn more about this in time, but must continue to wear masks, social distance and wash our hands frequently.


I'm not arguing with you Jimako because you are just quoting what authorities are saying.

I just have to note that the "fact" is kind of funny. Its directly contradicting itself. If the vaccine doesn't drastically cut down on your ability to spread the virus, no amount of vaccination is going to reduce community transmission.

Authorities are just being super duper safe but I worry that they are going to confuse people and actually act as a deterrent to people getting vaccinated.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#276 » by Dresden » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:39 pm

https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-since-coronavirus-emerged-wuhan-124536701.html

A year since Covid emerged, Americans in Wuhan are afraid again — for the U.S.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#277 » by Dresden » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:42 pm

coldfish wrote:If the vaccine doesn't drastically cut down on your ability to spread the virus, no amount of vaccination is going to reduce community transmission.

Authorities are just being super duper safe but I worry that they are going to confuse people and actually act as a deterrent to people getting vaccinated.


I'm not sure if that is correct. Once a certain number of people are vaccinated, and more or less immune from catching it, the number of infected people will dwindle, until there are so few people that have it, that the spread will slow down to a trickle and eventually die out.

I would also think that if you are vaccinated, the amount of time that the virus can stay viable in your system is much shorter than if you were infected but asymptomatic.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#278 » by mlitney01 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:47 pm

Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:If the vaccine doesn't drastically cut down on your ability to spread the virus, no amount of vaccination is going to reduce community transmission.

Authorities are just being super duper safe but I worry that they are going to confuse people and actually act as a deterrent to people getting vaccinated.


I'm not sure if that is correct. Once a certain number of people are vaccinated, and more or less immune from catching it, the number of infected people will dwindle, until there are so few people that have it, that the spread will slow down to a trickle and eventually die out.

I would also think that if you are vaccinated, the amount of time that the virus can stay viable in your system is much shorter than if you were infected but asymptomatic.


I'll have to ask my wife later as she's an infectious disease physician. I'm pretty sure she's explained this to me, but my eyes tend to glaze over when she starts speaking medical stuff.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#279 » by coldfish » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:37 pm

Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:If the vaccine doesn't drastically cut down on your ability to spread the virus, no amount of vaccination is going to reduce community transmission.

Authorities are just being super duper safe but I worry that they are going to confuse people and actually act as a deterrent to people getting vaccinated.


I'm not sure if that is correct. Once a certain number of people are vaccinated, and more or less immune from catching it, the number of infected people will dwindle, until there are so few people that have it, that the spread will slow down to a trickle and eventually die out.

I would also think that if you are vaccinated, the amount of time that the virus can stay viable in your system is much shorter than if you were infected but asymptomatic.


The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.

Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#280 » by Dresden » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:41 pm

coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:If the vaccine doesn't drastically cut down on your ability to spread the virus, no amount of vaccination is going to reduce community transmission.

Authorities are just being super duper safe but I worry that they are going to confuse people and actually act as a deterrent to people getting vaccinated.


I'm not sure if that is correct. Once a certain number of people are vaccinated, and more or less immune from catching it, the number of infected people will dwindle, until there are so few people that have it, that the spread will slow down to a trickle and eventually die out.

I would also think that if you are vaccinated, the amount of time that the virus can stay viable in your system is much shorter than if you were infected but asymptomatic.


The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.

Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.


I'm just a layperson when it comes to this, but somehow I don't think that's how it works- being able to "bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person" in perpetuity. It has to reproduce somewhere, to keep up it's numbers, and if it isn't able to do this in a host, I believe it will die out.

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