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OT: COVID-19 thread #4

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#281 » by coldfish » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:48 pm

Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
I'm not sure if that is correct. Once a certain number of people are vaccinated, and more or less immune from catching it, the number of infected people will dwindle, until there are so few people that have it, that the spread will slow down to a trickle and eventually die out.

I would also think that if you are vaccinated, the amount of time that the virus can stay viable in your system is much shorter than if you were infected but asymptomatic.


The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.

Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.


I'm just a layperson when it comes to this, but somehow I don't think that's how it works- being able to "bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person" in perpetuity. It has to reproduce somewhere, to keep up it's numbers, and if it isn't able to do this in a host, I believe it will die out.


I'm not even sure what you are saying in context with my original observation. You seem to be saying "I disagree" and then saying that you agree with me.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#282 » by HomoSapien » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:51 pm

coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:
The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.

Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.


I'm just a layperson when it comes to this, but somehow I don't think that's how it works- being able to "bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person" in perpetuity. It has to reproduce somewhere, to keep up it's numbers, and if it isn't able to do this in a host, I believe it will die out.


I'm not even sure what you are saying in context with my original observation. You seem to be saying "I disagree" and then saying that you agree with me.


I'll just add to the confusion, but from my understanding even if you are vaccinated you can still catch and spread the virus, you just will have extremely mild symptoms and complications from it. The reason you need to continue practicing social distancing is to protect those who aren't vaccinated yet. Once the majority of the population is vaccinated, we can return to normalcy because even if the virus may be spreading between the population, the health complications from it will be largely mitigated.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#283 » by TheSuzerain » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:05 pm

Getting vaccinated almost surely will greatly diminish your ability to spread the virus.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#284 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:52 am

coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:
The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.

Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.


I'm just a layperson when it comes to this, but somehow I don't think that's how it works- being able to "bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person" in perpetuity. It has to reproduce somewhere, to keep up it's numbers, and if it isn't able to do this in a host, I believe it will die out.


I'm not even sure what you are saying in context with my original observation. You seem to be saying "I disagree" and then saying that you agree with me.


I'm disagreeing. I don't think the virus can continue to spread that way. It needs a host to live in and replicate in.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#285 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:52 am

TheSuzerain wrote:Getting vaccinated almost surely will greatly diminish your ability to spread the virus.


I think you are correct. You could still spread the virus by, for instance, touching a door handle that an infected person just touched. You pick up the virus on your skin, then shake hands with someone who is not vaccinated, and then that person can catch it.

But you aren't acting as a host for the virus, it's not multiplying inside you, and you aren't casting out thousands and thousands of new virus particles when you sneeze or cough.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#286 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:02 am

HomoSapien wrote:I'll just add to the confusion, but from my understanding even if you are vaccinated you can still catch and spread the virus, you just will have extremely mild symptoms and complications from it.


My reading on the topic which is light, would leave me to believe the following:

1: The vaccine isn't 100% effective, so clearly those whom don't build up enough antibodies are still going to be able to spread it.

2: If you do build up enough antibodies it is currently unknown whether you will be able to spread it, so it isn't that this will for sure happen for people that the vaccine works appropriately for (95% of people).

3: If those who build antibodies can spread it, it is highly likely they spread it for a much shorter period of time and will be much less contagious since they won't ever build up as much in their system (ie you will likely need to have a much closer / longer / enclosed interaction).

The reason you need to continue practicing social distancing is to protect those who aren't vaccinated yet. Once the majority of the population is vaccinated, we can return to normalcy because even if the virus may be spreading between the population, the health complications from it will be largely mitigated.


I'll probably stop heavy social distancing after getting the vaccine myself. I'll still wear masks everywhere required, but I probably won't worry about eating out, going to movies (but will wear a mask if that is theater policy), travel (but wear masks where asked), or seeing my small group of friends anymore (as long as they are open to the same risks).
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#287 » by coldfish » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:05 am

Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
I'm just a layperson when it comes to this, but somehow I don't think that's how it works- being able to "bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person" in perpetuity. It has to reproduce somewhere, to keep up it's numbers, and if it isn't able to do this in a host, I believe it will die out.


I'm not even sure what you are saying in context with my original observation. You seem to be saying "I disagree" and then saying that you agree with me.


I'm disagreeing. I don't think the virus can continue to spread that way. It needs a host to live in and replicate in.


Again, you keep saying you disagree than go on to agree with me. Its very confusing.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#288 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:47 am

coldfish wrote:
Dresden wrote:
coldfish wrote:
I'm not even sure what you are saying in context with my original observation. You seem to be saying "I disagree" and then saying that you agree with me.


I'm disagreeing. I don't think the virus can continue to spread that way. It needs a host to live in and replicate in.


Again, you keep saying you disagree than go on to agree with me. Its very confusing.


:dontknow:

At the sake of needlessly interjecting, I believe he disagrees with this:
The "fact" was saying that being vaccinated doesn't make you immune from catching it and passing it on. If that is the case, then vaccination won't eliminate the virus. It will just bounce from vaccinated person to vaccinated person until immunity wanes and then people will start getting sick again. If that's the case, there is no point to social distancing once you are vaccinated. We will probably just all need booster shots.


And probably never really read this:
Note: I think this scenario is highly unlikely. While its possible to get a mild asymptomatic infection after vaccination, its probably not going to happen much. Like I said, they are being super safe to the possible point of absurdity. There is no science behind this.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#289 » by coldfish » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:44 am

dougthonus wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:I'll just add to the confusion, but from my understanding even if you are vaccinated you can still catch and spread the virus, you just will have extremely mild symptoms and complications from it.


My reading on the topic which is light, would leave me to believe the following:

1: The vaccine isn't 100% effective, so clearly those whom don't build up enough antibodies are still going to be able to spread it.

2: If you do build up enough antibodies it is currently unknown whether you will be able to spread it, so it isn't that this will for sure happen for people that the vaccine works appropriately for (95% of people).

3: If those who build antibodies can spread it, it is highly likely they spread it for a much shorter period of time and will be much less contagious since they won't ever build up as much in their system (ie you will likely need to have a much closer / longer / enclosed interaction).

The reason you need to continue practicing social distancing is to protect those who aren't vaccinated yet. Once the majority of the population is vaccinated, we can return to normalcy because even if the virus may be spreading between the population, the health complications from it will be largely mitigated.


I'll probably stop heavy social distancing after getting the vaccine myself. I'll still wear masks everywhere required, but I probably won't worry about eating out, going to movies (but will wear a mask if that is theater policy), travel (but wear masks where asked), or seeing my small group of friends anymore (as long as they are open to the same risks).


Random comments:
- Just as a background, in order for someone to be infectious, they have to have the virus land on them, get into their cells and reproduce a lot. Like many, many orders of magnitude more particles need to be created and that has to happen in the respiratory tract. Viruses don't just bounce off people. They have to land and replicate for days to jump again.
- The concern about vaccinated people infecting others comes from other vaccinations, specifically the flu. Given that the flu vaccine is for a family of unstable viruses and this vaccine is targeting a specific stable virus, its really questionable if the concept is applicable.
- Regardless, the complaint is that during the studies, the vaccine makers only tracked symptomatic cases which is what is normally done for vaccine trials. They didn't look for asymptomatic cases but they didn't look for them in either the placebo group or the vaccinated group. It wouldn't be a stretch to assume that there was *also* a 95% reduction in asymptomatic cases.
- While the vaccines say "95% effective" that really doesn't do them justice. I believe one of them had a grand total of zero severe cases out of 30k people. The viral load is lower, on average, in the few vaccinated people who get infected. Effectively, the vaccines probably reduced viral load by more than 95%.

Basically, Doug is right here. Its kind of silly to be super worried about covid after getting a vaccine. Maybe you avoid your 80 year old uncle if he hasn't had a vaccine and you wear a mask at the grocery store to be polite but for the most part, its all good.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#290 » by jmajew » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:59 pm

dougthonus wrote:I'll probably stop heavy social distancing after getting the vaccine myself. I'll still wear masks everywhere required, but I probably won't worry about eating out, going to movies (but will wear a mask if that is theater policy), travel (but wear masks where asked), or seeing my small group of friends anymore (as long as they are open to the same risks).


Everyone inside my house recently tested positive for COVID. Symptoms started with one kid on December 12th, on December 13th my other two kids had mild symptoms. I went and got tested on 12/14 in the morning with a rapid test and tested negative. We called the doctor and he told us my test didn't matter and we needed to get everyone else tested. My wife's and my assumption was I was the only one going anywhere so I would have been the most likely carrier. We went and got a PCR test for the entire family that night. I tested negative again, but my wife and three kids all tested positive. I maybe experienced mild symptoms later in the week, not really sure as I was only a little achy (was it from working out) and had a sore throat that later led to me needing antibiotics to clear up (not a clear symptom of COVID). During the time before we new everyone was sick I shared spoons with my family, kissed my wife and children, took care of my daughter when she had a fever of 103 and when she threw up. Our assumption is I either had a really mild case and gave it to my family and tested negative, I was exposed by them and only had mild symptoms, or I am one of the lucky ones that is basically naturally immune to it.

With all that said, now that we have gotten through it and are no longer infectious, we have had the biggest sense of freedom we have ever had. We booked a vacation to Disney for February, airfare and hotel rates were relatively cheap, we figured we have 90 days of immunity (except maybe me I'll probably get an antibody test) and we might as well use this time wisely. We most definitely feel comfortable going to movies, seeing friends, and eating out. Obviously we understand mask wearing is still going to be necessary in all of these places, but the sense of freedom we have again is amazing. We are no longer "scared" to go do things. The fact we can go see my grandmother again is awesome. She hasn't seen my kids in 10 months, last time we saw here was Feb 1, 2019. We aren't worried about sending out kids back to school and potentially getting sick and bringing to our parents or anyone else. Life has changed. Really I cannot express enough how much life has changed and how our outlook has changed.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#291 » by Bullflip » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:14 pm

If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#292 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:30 pm

Bullflip wrote:If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine


The vaccine card (to my knowledge) was still in discussion and isn't a definite thing yet.

If you had COVID, you will probably still need the vaccine to get a vaccine card to use anything the vaccine card is required for (if we go that route at all which I think is up for debate).
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#293 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:38 pm

Bullflip wrote:If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine


Yes, because the assumption is that your immunity only lasts for 90 days. My nephew is a doctor, so was due to receive it at the end of January,but then caught Covid. Now his date for getting it has been moved back to account for his 90 days of immunity.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#294 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:38 pm

jmajew wrote:
dougthonus wrote:I'll probably stop heavy social distancing after getting the vaccine myself. I'll still wear masks everywhere required, but I probably won't worry about eating out, going to movies (but will wear a mask if that is theater policy), travel (but wear masks where asked), or seeing my small group of friends anymore (as long as they are open to the same risks).


Everyone inside my house recently tested positive for COVID. Symptoms started with one kid on December 12th, on December 13th my other two kids had mild symptoms. I went and got tested on 12/14 in the morning with a rapid test and tested negative. We called the doctor and he told us my test didn't matter and we needed to get everyone else tested. My wife's and my assumption was I was the only one going anywhere so I would have been the most likely carrier. We went and got a PCR test for the entire family that night. I tested negative again, but my wife and three kids all tested positive. I maybe experienced mild symptoms later in the week, not really sure as I was only a little achy (was it from working out) and had a sore throat that later led to me needing antibiotics to clear up (not a clear symptom of COVID). During the time before we new everyone was sick I shared spoons with my family, kissed my wife and children, took care of my daughter when she had a fever of 103 and when she threw up. Our assumption is I either had a really mild case and gave it to my family and tested negative, I was exposed by them and only had mild symptoms, or I am one of the lucky ones that is basically naturally immune to it.

With all that said, now that we have gotten through it and are no longer infectious, we have had the biggest sense of freedom we have ever had. We booked a vacation to Disney for February, airfare and hotel rates were relatively cheap, we figured we have 90 days of immunity (except maybe me I'll probably get an antibody test) and we might as well use this time wisely. We most definitely feel comfortable going to movies, seeing friends, and eating out. Obviously we understand mask wearing is still going to be necessary in all of these places, but the sense of freedom we have again is amazing. We are no longer "scared" to go do things. The fact we can go see my grandmother again is awesome. She hasn't seen my kids in 10 months, last time we saw here was Feb 1, 2019. We aren't worried about sending out kids back to school and potentially getting sick and bringing to our parents or anyone else. Life has changed. Really I cannot express enough how much life has changed and how our outlook has changed.


I''m glad to hear your whole family got through it without any serious complications.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#295 » by moorhosj » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:52 pm

logical_art wrote:Not clear to me why there's such renewed panic when excess deaths are below summer levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


Is it clear yet? Playing out almost exactly as everyone said it would. 2 weeks later, back-to-back days of record deaths. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/31/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

More than 3,740 coronavirus deaths were reported Wednesday in the US, the most reported in a single day during the pandemic and the second straight day that record was set, Johns Hopkins University data show.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#296 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:58 pm

Dresden wrote:
Bullflip wrote:If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine


Yes, because the assumption is that your immunity only lasts for 90 days. My nephew is a doctor, so was due to receive it at the end of January,but then caught Covid. Now his date for getting it has been moved back to account for his 90 days of immunity.


Just to add a little, the assumption behind this thought is worse case scenario thinking.

If you actually get COVID, your immune response is somewhat unknown and unique to you. Based on how much you were exposed to and how your body responded, you build up an unknown amount of antibodies for future immune response.

With the vaccine, there is a studied response, you have a good idea of what it will be in a typical person and a better understanding of how long it will last (also likely why you get a second dose of it which you aren't with the actual virus).

So if you did get COVID, depending how your body responded, you might be permanently fine, you might be susceptible nearly immediately. 90 days is probably a very conservative estimate for most people of how long they will hold immunity, my completely non medical degree pseudo science mind would guess typical immunity after infection is much longer, but it can be as short as 90 days. At the same time, vaccine immunity will almost certainly be much, much longer than any natural infection since the vaccine is specifically designed to give you the longest immunity possible.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#297 » by Dresden » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:08 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Dresden wrote:
Bullflip wrote:If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine


Yes, because the assumption is that your immunity only lasts for 90 days. My nephew is a doctor, so was due to receive it at the end of January,but then caught Covid. Now his date for getting it has been moved back to account for his 90 days of immunity.


Just to add a little, the assumption behind this thought is worse case scenario thinking.

If you actually get COVID, your immune response is somewhat unknown and unique to you. Based on how much you were exposed to and how your body responded, you build up an unknown amount of antibodies for future immune response.

With the vaccine, there is a studied response, you have a good idea of what it will be in a typical person and a better understanding of how long it will last (also likely why you get a second dose of it which you aren't with the actual virus).

So if you did get COVID, depending how your body responded, you might be permanently fine, you might be susceptible nearly immediately. 90 days is probably a very conservative estimate for most people of how long they will hold immunity, my completely non medical degree pseudo science mind would guess typical immunity after infection is much longer, but it can be as short as 90 days. At the same time, vaccine immunity will almost certainly be much, much longer than any natural infection since the vaccine is specifically designed to give you the longest immunity possible.


I think that's right- they just don't know how long immunity really lasts. It could be indefinitely, it could be a year, it could. be 90 days. the few cases where people got it twice, the first time they had a very mild case, so probably didn't build up a lot of anti-bodies.
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#298 » by HomoSapien » Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:02 pm

Dresden wrote:
Bullflip wrote:If someone already got COVID and have since recovered, do they still need to get the vaccine? I understand that people who get the vaccine get some sort of card that shows they indeed got the vaccine


Yes, because the assumption is that your immunity only lasts for 90 days. My nephew is a doctor, so was due to receive it at the end of January,but then caught Covid. Now his date for getting it has been moved back to account for his 90 days of immunity.


To add to that, I have a coworker who has tested positive for Covid twice and was symptomatic both times. Dude is only 25 and in good health as far as I know (and thankfully recovered both times).
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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#299 » by dice » Fri Jan 1, 2021 1:34 am

on the stimulus front, after several months insisting on another round of $1200 checks for everyone and $600 weekly unemployment benefits out to americans, the dems recently caved and agreed to half those amounts. trump had largely stayed out of negotiations and let his treasury secretary (who called the deal "fabulous") handle it. the meager bill was passed and congress left town for the holidays. the bill was then flown down to mar-a-lago for the president to sign it w/ christmas approaching. instead, trump called it a disgrace, asking for $2000 ("or even $4000) checks to be sent out. dems said OK, of course, and passed such a bill in the house, which mitch mcconnell refused to even bring up for a vote in the senate. so trump decided to sign the bill that had been sitting on his desk for a week. in the meantime, unemployment benefits ran out for many americans. and a week's worth of the smaller, extended benefits will likely be chopped off given that the bill was written such that they expire at the end of march. what a ****show

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Re: OT: COVID-19 thread #4 

Post#300 » by bentheredengthat » Sun Jan 3, 2021 2:50 pm

... What the heck, let's just throw out a presidential election while we're at it....

But of course there's no complaint over the counting any of the very same ballots that were favorable for filling house seats with Republicans

It's one thing to compete against a logical political opponent but when you realize half of them are crazies it's something else. (I don't really support either party, I just go issue by issue)

I'm hearing (in real life) people saying things about going to their farms with their guns and then let's see what them there city people are going to do... I guess implying they are going to???? Fill in the blank and profit??? I'm not making this up.

It's getting very disconcerting.

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