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Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins?

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2 questions, 2 votes-Offseason grade and predicted wins (out of 72 games)

1-A
11
8%
2-B
31
23%
3-C
13
9%
4-D
8
6%
5-F
3
2%
6 25 or below
2
1%
7 26-30 wins
21
15%
8 31-35 wins
33
24%
9 36-40 wins
11
8%
10 41 or more wins
4
3%
 
Total votes: 137

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Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#1 » by pipfan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:08 am

I honestly think we are done, more or less. We could have made major roster changes this offseason, but it looks like AK is sitting out FA (Temple doesn't really count) and going with our core, plus Williams.

So, 2 questions:
1-How do you grade AK's offseason
bringing in Donovan/Cheeks
drafting Williams (plus he Euro kid, but I doubt any of us have much of an informed opinion on him)
Temple as FA
Letting Dunn/Shaq walk, probably keeping Valentine

Our roster looks to be
White/Sato/Archie
Lavine/Temple/Valentine
Porter/Williams/Hutch
Lauri/Young/Kornet
Carter/Gafford/Felicio

2-How many wins, assuming some sort of normal health (I know, a big assumption for a Bulls fan). Remember, only 72 games this year

As a very optimistic fan, I give an "A"
Williams was my guy, from a few months ago. I wanted us to trade back and get him, but it was clear his value went up. I posted many blow ups on the trade board, but always with the caveat that I am fine with staying put with our core and giving it a chance with a real coach. With the crazy $ thrown around yesterday, I am so glad we sat out and kept our powder dry. Sometimes the best move is no move

As for wins, I think we will be at .500 or above, by a bit. With the Play In-seeds 7-10 getting a shot at the playoffs, we should clearly be one of those 4 teams. It should be an interesting year, IF HEALTHY
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#2 » by Fastbrk4brkfast » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:21 pm

This was an offseason a long time coming. If it was just the new FO I'd maybe have gone with a C as they're unproven. But overhauling player development and training was so necessary. Can't help but give that an A.

36 wins. Helps to remember how many games the Bulls should have won last season that they pissed away. They found all kinds of ways to lose games they were in great position to win. And they only started Coby once, a W in the last game before the shutdown. Billy D's got enough to get to 36 even in a development year.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#3 » by dougthonus » Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:29 am

It's a C.

We just punted. You can argue this was the right call, that we wanted to see guys, but Morey went to Philly and immediately made impactful changes to fix problems with the roster. He didn't say "wow, I need to watch these guys play in person to figure out that there are problems with one of the most underachieving teams in the NBA".

Now maybe the Bulls looked to make changes, and there just weren't good opportunities. Maybe the value of our players was too low at this point in time and there were no better options. That's a distinct possibility. However, its a bit hard for me to believe the absolute best thing to do was nothing.

Things that we could have done:
1: Trade up in the draft
2: Trade down in the draft
3: Trade out of the draft
4: Use Felicio/Porter to take on bad salary and get picks
5: Trade Lauri/WCJ/LaVine for future assets
6: Trade Sato/Thad to get 1 year deals and generate more cap space next year
7: Trade any pieces on this roster for ones that fit better

But our off-season came down to:
1: Choosing Valentine over Dunn/Harrison
2: Signing Temple for 1 year
3: Drafting a guy the whole world thought was a reach (hopefully they're wrong, they could be)
4: Drafting a draft and stash prospect
5: Signing Devon Dotson to a 2 way contract
6: Replacing Boylen with Donovan

The coaching change was an obvious thing to do. Kudos to them for doing it and for bringing in a high quality coach and not just an assistant. However, this off-season, if carried out by the old FO, would have been viewed as an unmitigated disaster.

I'm not saying AK/ME screwed up, but they are on the clock now and don't get a pass for anything. Whatever mess they inherited, they chose to sit in it and now own the results going forward.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#4 » by DuckIII » Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:44 am

I went with a B, but I included hiring Donovan in the analysis. Didn’t love the draft. But do agree with looking at the roster under Donovan before doing anything drastic.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#5 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:59 am

I'd say a C.

Staff and Organizational moves were a B (only wart is that we still don't have much of an analytics staff)

Roster moves were a D for the reasons Doug gave.

Averages out to a C.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#6 » by Leslie Forman » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:02 am

dougthonus wrote:We just punted. You can argue this was the right call, that we wanted to see guys, but Morey went to Philly and immediately made impactful changes to fix problems with the roster. He didn't say "wow, I need to watch these guys play in person to figure out that there are problems with one of the most underachieving teams in the NBA".

Yeah this whole "they need to see what they got" excuse is weaksauce. These guys have literally been getting paid for years to know the talent around this league. Why would they have to see a couple months of play just to come up with a plan based on a roster full of guys they should already know plenty about?

Let's be real, they just didn't get any trade offers they liked and they don't want to tie up any more future cap room. That's why the roster hasn't changed yet.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#7 » by DuckIII » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:07 am

Leslie Forman wrote:Let's be real, they just didn't get any trade offers they liked and they don't want to tie up any more future cap room. That's why the roster hasn't changed yet.


That’s not any different than waiting to see. Obviously if they got offers they loved they would have taken them. “Wow, I love that amazing trade offer but I’m going to say no strictly because I have a theory about patience.” That’s not a thing.

Another way of saying it is, they like enough of what they know about the young talent, that not being in love with any trade offers, they are going to see what they look like under Donovan. Not weak sauce when described the only logical way it could be. More like an objectively reasonable approach.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#8 » by dice » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:12 am

so far realgm bulls board expects our winning % to increase from .338 to .470

quite optimistic
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#9 » by Chi town » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:16 am

33 wins. Fighting for last two spots with play in.

I think the trade deadline will be our real offseason movement. AK will be selling high on players that have rehabbed their value.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#10 » by Chi town » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:16 am

dice wrote:so far realgm bulls board expects our winning % to increase from .338 to .470

quite optimistic


Forgetting 72 games instead of 82.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#11 » by Kurt Heimlich » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:27 am

dice wrote:so far realgm bulls board expects our winning % to increase from .338 to .470

quite optimistic


It'd be funny if we had a library for the results of this same poll every off season (this poll happens every off season, maybe Pip has bookmarks to the old ones?). Without a doubt I'm sure the results have all been quite overly optimistic.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#12 » by Leslie Forman » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:35 am

DuckIII wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:Let's be real, they just didn't get any trade offers they liked and they don't want to tie up any more future cap room. That's why the roster hasn't changed yet.


That’s not any different than waiting to see. Obviously if they got offers they loved they would have taken them. “Wow, I love that amazing trade offer but I’m going to say no strictly because I have a theory about patience.” That’s not a thing.

Another way of saying it is, they like enough of what they know about the young talent, that not being in love with any trade offers, they are going to see what they look like under Donovan. Not weak sauce when described the only logical way it could be. More like an objectively reasonable approach.

Nah. If these guys are competent, and I think (or at least hope) they are, a couple months aren't going to somehow completely overturn their player evaluations.

And there have obviously absolutely been many great trades over the years that teams have passed up on just because they really, really needed to see how their own young guys developed. Just look at all the dumb teams that passed up on Harden until Presti eventually got to Morey. They basically passed up a guy any decent evaluator would have realized could be a superstar in a bigger role because of dumb things like "well I just really gotta see what this big Lithuanian guy can do."

I think they are just underwhelmed by what the market is offering right now and are hoping things are different at the deadline when team situations have evolved. Porter in particular could potentially have a very different value than he does now. I have a hard time believing they are terribly attached to any of the talent on this roster.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#13 » by dice » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:36 am

Chi town wrote:
dice wrote:so far realgm bulls board expects our winning % to increase from .338 to .470

quite optimistic


Forgetting 72 games instead of 82.

you think all the people voting 31-35 wins are doing so based on an 82 game schedule (when the poll title specifies 72 games)?
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#14 » by nomorezorro » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:51 am

it's hard to give us a "good" offseason grade when we didn't do anything of note and the most important move (draft pick) is impossible to judge right now

i do think it's unfair to compare our situation to philly's in terms of roster turnaround. they are very obviously a team that is pushing to contend right now, and the flaws with their roster are glaring (need shooting). we are a directionless team whose primary flaw last season was "poorly managed and possibly devoid of talent." there's no quick fix there, so being patient and seeing if anyone happens to flourish under donovan makes sense to me
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#15 » by PaKii94 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:55 am

Bulls were at the cusp of 8th seed with Boylen's broken system before the injuries hit. I expect better with Donavon and a healthier roster
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#16 » by Chi town » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:59 am

Leslie Forman wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:Let's be real, they just didn't get any trade offers they liked and they don't want to tie up any more future cap room. That's why the roster hasn't changed yet.


That’s not any different than waiting to see. Obviously if they got offers they loved they would have taken them. “Wow, I love that amazing trade offer but I’m going to say no strictly because I have a theory about patience.” That’s not a thing.

Another way of saying it is, they like enough of what they know about the young talent, that not being in love with any trade offers, they are going to see what they look like under Donovan. Not weak sauce when described the only logical way it could be. More like an objectively reasonable approach.

Nah. If these guys are competent, and I think (or at least hope) they are, a couple months aren't going to somehow completely overturn their player evaluations.

And there have obviously absolutely been many great trades over the years that teams have passed up on just because they really, really needed to see how their own young guys developed. Just look at all the dumb teams that passed up on Harden until Presti eventually got to Morey. They basically passed up a guy any decent evaluator would have realized could be a superstar in a bigger role because of dumb things like "well I just really gotta see what this big Lithuanian guy can do."

I think they are just underwhelmed by what the market is offering right now and are hoping things are different at the deadline when team situations have evolved. Porter in particular could potentially have a very different value than he does now. I have a hard time believing they are terribly attached to any of the talent on this roster.


I don’t think anyone is saying they are. Quite the opposite. I think the hope is pump and dump. To your point team needs could be totally different then too.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#17 » by Jimako10 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:59 am

I'm going to be optimistic and say 36-40 wins and a B grade, potentially fighting for a playoff spot. Now that ownership has finally put a FO into place that values and invests into player development, plus the huge upgrade in coaching, I hope that would lead to a bounce back. Could be a pretty good evaluating season where you can pump and dump some players as well...cough:::Lauri:::cough.


EDIT: Didn't read and my vote was based on an 82 win season. With 72 games, it would be 31-35.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#18 » by Chi town » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:01 am

dice wrote:
Chi town wrote:
dice wrote:so far realgm bulls board expects our winning % to increase from .338 to .470

quite optimistic


Forgetting 72 games instead of 82.

you think all the people voting 31-35 wins are doing so based on an 82 game schedule (when the poll title specifies 72 games)?


Yep.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#19 » by Chi town » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:03 am

Jimako10 wrote:I'm going to be optimistic and say 36-40 wins and a B grade, potentially fighting for a playoff spot. Now that ownership has finally put a FO into place that values and invests into player development, plus the huge upgrade in coaching, I hope that would lead to a bounce back. Could be a pretty good evaluating season where you can pump and dump some players as well...cough:::Lauri:::cough.


Interesting about player development...

How long does that take to kick in?
- 6 months? 12? 18?

I’ve always seen PD as a more long term 2-3 seasons thing. I don’t think any of these players will be around to develop. Coby Zach and PW are the only players I see staying here long term.
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Re: Vote Twice-Offseason grade/How many wins? 

Post#20 » by keloms » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:08 am

F - Showed up, did the minimum, and left.

If you believe there's any chance in landing a max free agent next year, that's the right strategy, but, if you're realistic and don't see that happening, it was a waste of another off season and the same thing GarPax would've done.

Next season is likely even worse as the team is blown up more leading to the deadline and getting to 25 wins is probably miracle territory.

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