ZOMG wrote:cjbulls wrote:sco wrote:I can flip it the other way, other than Zach, I don't think that anyone would nab you much in return if traded during the offseason. So for Lauri, the trade-off IMO was trading him now for either another young guy who has underperformed or a non-lotto draft pick - i.e. a 4th quartile starter/role player. Keeping him, you have a chance to see if he can be a 2nd quartile starter, which will either be a good guy to keep or a guy who has more trade value at the deadline.
That is a good point, my comments comes from my pessimism around Lauri. It feels like they have less than a 50% chance of winning the Lauri gamble based on this set of outcomes.
-If he underperforms, you get nothing from him and likely let him walk next year.
-If he performs average, you’re paying him $20 million+ and praying he continues putting things together.
-If he has a great year, some team is giving him a max offer that you’ll need to match. Then you’ll have to decide based on the one year plus all the inconsistent history. Given that non-title teams can generally only have two max players, are you hitching your wagon to Zach and Lauri? Letting Zach go?
There is definitely a world where it all works out, but a lot of land mines on that path. That feels like quite a needle to thread.
If Bogdan (a clearly superior player at the trendiest NBA position) can only get 18 mil, I don't think there's much danger of Lauri getting 20.
If he has an average/pretty good year, I see him being a 15mil guy.
Very true, but I feel like that Bogdan was a big underpay, just as I think that Hayward was a big overpay. I think Saric's 3/$27 is a good comp for last year Lauri. Whether we pay Lauri $9M or $20M, I'm happy we don't need to commit to him unless he can show he's a top 10PF. We also get a window to trade him at the deadline if he remains what he was last year, albeit for pittance.