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Assembling Core 2.0

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Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#1 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:40 am

Situation

So it is becoming increasingly clear even to the more optimistic posters that the GarPax core (Core 1.0) is a complete dud. Lavine, Lauri, WCJ, and Coby is a group of 1-way players that have very low basketball IQ. It's also a group of mostly 1-position or 0-position defenders which is not at all what you want as a foundation. I really don't see how you'd want any of those guys to be a part of the AK Core (Core 2.0). Now, maybe some of these guys could stick on the team in more complementary roles (if the price is right, and I expect it won't be for Lavine/Lauri), but to me we only have 1 person on the roster who is a core piece. And that is Patrick Williams.

The task at hand is to assemble a group of 4 players or so that fit with Patrick Williams and can be the new foundation of our roster.

Now the good news is that we have no long term money on the books at all. None of Core 1.0 has a long term contract. For this reason, we can overhaul the roster very rapidly. Needless to say, I really hope that's what we're doing.

2021 and 2022 Drafts

Very obvious avenue for new core members is going to be the 2021 draft. If we suck this year, and we can ensure that's the case by trading Lavine/Lauri/Sato, then we should have another high draft pick in the 2021 draft. Ideally, we would also grab a 2nd lotto pick by trading Lavine/Lauri.

We have a separate thread for draft prospects, so won't spend too much time here. Needless to say, we need to target versatile athletes with playmaking ability who can't be targeted on defense (basically the opposite of the players that GarPax targeted). Cunningham and Suggs fit very nicely in that archetype. Stay away from dumb players and low ceiling players.

If we're hitting reset (and we should), we'll likely be picking near the top in 2022 as well to add another core player. That's probably rough to hear, but this is not a quick-fix situation. Making attempts to salvage this in 1 offseason would be a huge mistake. We're building around a 19-year old. This is going to take a little time.

2021 Free Agency

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/

We will have money to play with in free agency. There will inevitably be some big veteran names at the top. We should not consider them at all. We also should not invest money in low upside role players, even if they are young. We want to target actual potential core members. Now that sounds like an impossible task as young potential core members are typically unattainable, but there are 2 names that jump out to me as having genuine upside, youth, and attainability.

1. Talen Horton Tucker

He's from Chicago. He's a RFA and would be subject to the Arenas rule. He is 21 years old and a very talented wing. He's going to have a rotation role with the Lakers this year but probably no more than that. And the Lakers cap table is so clogged (with a potential Schroeder extension to come), we can snag THT with an aggressive offer. The Arenas rule makes it complicated how the contract would be structured, but I think we would potentially need to offer something in the neighborhood of 4 years, $80-90 million. I realize that is an eye-popping figure, but I would also argue that bringing a potential young core member into the fold is absolutely the best way to spend our money. We would essentially be buying a top 10 lotto pick with cap dollars that we have no other useful way to use beyond eating bad contracts for draft picks.

2. Terence Davis

Undrafted player last year who stepped into Toronto and was immediately a contender level role player. He's a bit older at 23, but he checks just about every box you'd want in a combo guard these days. Very athletic with good size/wingspan as a combo guard. Has a nice shooting stroke. Scored with decent volume already (dropped 31 on the Bulls). Not a great passer/playmaker but he's competent. Solid defense. I don't see star level upside for him as may be the case with THT, but I think he can be a starter-level player on a contender which would make him close to a core level player. Same Arenas rule stuff applies. The contract it would take is a bit less clear here. He did have a legal dust-up in the offseason. And he's not in the Raptors rotation right now. Tough to gauge what the Raptors would match/not-match. Let's say 4 years $60 million scares them off.

Both would be required to be flat contracts due to the Arenas rule, so that's nice. Worst case scenario, they bust and we have large expiring deals with which to make deals before we even need to extend the 2021 lotto picks. Neither contract would interfere with having multiple max cap slots in offseasons to come.

The Result

Core/Franchise Guys
1. Patrick Williams
2. THT
3. 2021 Bulls High Lottery Pick
4. 2022 Bulls High Lottery Pick

Fringe Core - Potential Starters
5. Terence Davis
6. and beyond - Additional Draft picks we acquire by trading Core 1.0 members or taking on bad contracts. The more of these we can acquire by blowing up the current roster, the more margin for error we're going to have with Rebuild 2.0. We should aggressively pursue such trades.

To me, that actually constitutes a quality young core that we can build around. I do understand that starting another 2-year plan after the basketball hell we've been living through would be tough. But in this case, we don't have a choice if we're actually trying to build a contender in Chicago. As early as the 2021-22 season, we could be a team that's enjoyable to watch for the home-town fans. I think people will be surprised at how refreshing it'll be to watch the team when you remove the dumb players and the defensive sieves.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#2 » by fleet » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:50 am

From what I understand, Tucker is Lebron’s special project.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#3 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:52 am

fleet wrote:From what I understand, Tucker is Lebron’s special project. It would be hard to pry him loose.

If the Lakers matched a 4-year $90 million deal, they would be on the hook for something like $35 million for THT in 2023.

We could make it extremely painful financially for the Lakers to keep THT.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#4 » by GoBlue72391 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:58 am

I think referring to WCJ as a 1-way player is very generous of you. He might be the first no-way player in league history.

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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#5 » by WookieOnRitalin » Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:59 am

Bulls cannot sign marquee free agents. It should never be a part of our plan. We should always try of course, but I will bet the farm on it not happening.

-Ron Mercer
-Ben Wallace
-Carlos Boozer
-Aged Pau Gasol
-Aged Wade

Chicago is a terrible FA destination. I think the biggest marquee signing in the last 20 years have been relegated to the coastal areas or areas with low to zero income tax (hello Texas!).

So this means we got to bet on the draft and hope our talent evaluations hold up. We need to suck bad to get some decent picks and just have a "hustle and try's hard, but loses" team for the next couple of years. That way, when some real talent comes on board, you've built a different type of culture for that talent to walk into.

I do not know what Lauri/Carter/Lavine/Coby can get us in return, but I figure whatever we can get should be viewed at increasing our odds at generating the best outcomes from the draft.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#6 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:00 am

WookieOnRitalin wrote:Bulls cannot sign marquee free agents. It should never be a part of our plan. We should always try of course, but I will bet the farm on it not happening.

-Ron Mercer
-Ben Wallace
-Carlos Boozer
-Aged Pau Gasol
-Aged Wade

Chicago is a terrible FA destination. I think the biggest marquee signing in the last 20 years have been relegated to the coastal areas or areas with low to zero income tax (hello Texas!).

So this means we got to bet on the draft and hope our talent evaluations hold up. We need to suck bad to get some decent picks and just have a "hustle and try's hard, but loses" team for the next couple of years. That way, when some real talent comes on board, you've built a different type of culture for that talent to walk into.

I do not know what Lauri/Carter/Lavine/Coby can get us in return, but I figure whatever we can get should be viewed at increasing our odds at generating the best outcomes from the draft.

Neither of the guys I mentioned here are marquee free agents. That's the whole point.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#7 » by nitetrain8603 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:10 am

Excuse me, you want to give THT 90 mil? Nope. Not on the plan that gives him even half of that.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#8 » by nomorezorro » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:12 am

if new orleans makes him available and we could get him for a nonessential piece, i wouldn't mind renting lonzo ball this season with an eye toward keeping him around if he looks good here. seems like he's improved his halfcourt PG skills and could plausibly grow into a solid starter still
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#9 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:18 am

nitetrain8603 wrote:Excuse me, you want to give THT 90 mil? Nope. Not on the plan that gives him even half of that.

This is a more impressive performance than anything Coby, Lauri, or Wendell have ever shown. Yes it's preseason, but much of it was against the Clippers starters.



He had a string of strong performances this pre-season. And he's the exact player-type that everyone wants. Versatile, multi-talented wing.

Of course there is risk, but it's the type of bold move we need to be making if we're going to turn this around. Risk = Upside
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#10 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:19 am

nomorezorro wrote:if new orleans makes him available and we could get him for a nonessential piece, i wouldn't mind renting lonzo ball this season with an eye toward keeping him around if he looks good here. seems like he's improved his halfcourt PG skills and could plausibly grow into a solid starter still

I'd rate him pretty similarly to Terence Davis I guess.

But I think he's going to get a much bigger contract than Davis because of who he is. And I think New Orleans is much more likely to match Lonzo Ball offer sheets than the Raps will be to match Terence Davis offer sheets.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#11 » by IliketheBullsNBearstoo » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:21 am

fleet wrote:From what I understand, Tucker is Lebron’s special project.


So he can trade him away for help at the deadline.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#12 » by GoBlue72391 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:26 am

TheSuzerain wrote:
nitetrain8603 wrote:Excuse me, you want to give THT 90 mil? Nope. Not on the plan that gives him even half of that.

This is a more impressive performance than anything Coby, Lauri, or Wendell have ever shown. Yes it's preseason, but much of it was against the Clippers starters.



He had a string of strong performances this pre-season. And he's the exact player-type that everyone wants. Versatile, multi-talented wing.

Of course there is risk, but it's the type of bold move we need to be making if we're going to turn this around. Risk = Upside
So the narrative is Lauri is trash and just had "one hot month", but you want to blow up the team and give the bag to a dude who had 1 great game...in the preseason???

Hard pass.

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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#13 » by Kurt Heimlich » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:33 am

fleet wrote:From what I understand, Tucker is Lebron’s special project.


I've seen the THT hype and wrote it off as typical LA over hype'age. But I'm curious, does being "Lebron's special project" have some special valuation/implication? Or were you joking around? Because this post invoked images of Lebron in a lab like some 6'8'' mad scientist Dr Frankenstein for me lol.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#14 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:35 am

GoBlue72391 wrote:
TheSuzerain wrote:
nitetrain8603 wrote:Excuse me, you want to give THT 90 mil? Nope. Not on the plan that gives him even half of that.

This is a more impressive performance than anything Coby, Lauri, or Wendell have ever shown. Yes it's preseason, but much of it was against the Clippers starters.



He had a string of strong performances this pre-season. And he's the exact player-type that everyone wants. Versatile, multi-talented wing.

Of course there is risk, but it's the type of bold move we need to be making if we're going to turn this around. Risk = Upside
So the narrative is Lauri is trash and just had "one hot month", but you want to blow up the team and give the bag to a dude who had 1 great game...in the preseason???

Hard pass.

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Lauri can never be good because of his defensive limitations. Hot shooting days, weeks, months doesn't change that sad reality for Lauri. He'll have to be on Duncan Robinson/Bertans level to overcome the defense problems.

THT is a projection. But he pretty clearly has a high level of skill coupled with physical talent (freakish wingspan coupled with strength). It's basically exchanging our cap space for an additional top 10 lotto pick. That's what THT is. You get another Patrick Williams type talent in exchange for paying P-Will's + Thad Young's cap hit. That's a deal I'd make.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#15 » by GoBlue72391 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:03 am

TheSuzerain wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:
TheSuzerain wrote:This is a more impressive performance than anything Coby, Lauri, or Wendell have ever shown. Yes it's preseason, but much of it was against the Clippers starters.



He had a string of strong performances this pre-season. And he's the exact player-type that everyone wants. Versatile, multi-talented wing.

Of course there is risk, but it's the type of bold move we need to be making if we're going to turn this around. Risk = Upside
So the narrative is Lauri is trash and just had "one hot month", but you want to blow up the team and give the bag to a dude who had 1 great game...in the preseason???

Hard pass.

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Lauri can never be good because of his defensive limitations. Hot shooting days, weeks, months doesn't change that sad reality for Lauri. He'll have to be on Duncan Robinson/Bertans level to overcome the defense problems.

THT is a projection. But he pretty clearly has a high level of skill coupled with physical talent (freakish wingspan coupled with strength). It's basically exchanging our cap space for an additional top 10 lotto pick. That's what THT is. You get another Patrick Williams type talent in exchange for paying P-Will's + Thad Young's cap hit. That's a deal I'd make.
There's plenty of good players who are below average defensively. Fun fact: Lauri shot 48% from the field and 34% from 3 during that "one hot month." I'd hardly call that hot, and I definitely wouldn't call it unsustainable, speaking purely from an efficiency point of view.

You can get a top 10 talent for a whole hell of a lot less than $90 million guaranteed dollars. That's the type of foolish risk that can cripple a franchise financially if it fails. It would make Felicio look like a value contract.

THT was a 2nd round pick. There's absolutely no evidence he's a top 10 talent, and there's even less evidence that he's worth $90 mil. I'm all for taking a chance on young, underutilized players with upside, but if that's anywhere near the asking price I'll look elsewhere.

You balk at the thought of paying a guy like Lauri $13 mil per season, but you want to empty the bag for a guy who has proven essentially nothing so far. Basically, you're paying him all that money simply because he's an unknown quantity. Imagine if some team drove the Brinks truck up to Gerald Green's house back in the day.

This is just the extreme opposite of GarPax. Instead of extreme conservatism and playing it safe, this is extreme "swing for the fences," both equally incompetent. I fully understand the desire to acquire athletic, lengthy, versatile, multidimensional talents, but this ain't it.

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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#16 » by fleet » Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:05 am

Kurt Heimlich wrote:
fleet wrote:From what I understand, Tucker is Lebron’s special project.


I've seen the THT hype and wrote it off as typical LA over hype'age. But I'm curious, does being "Lebron's special project" have some special valuation/implication? Or were you joking around? Because this post invoked images of Lebron in a lab like some 6'8'' mad scientist Dr Frankenstein for me lol.

I think it means GM Lebron will exert influence, and unless he gets a ridiculous offer, he is staying because LA will overpay short of a ridiculous offer. But yeah, Lebron has him in the lab for sure. Probably cold tubbing together at his ranch daily. (In my mind’s eye, Lebron has a ranch in Southern California raising basketball colts)
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#17 » by TheSuzerain » Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:17 am

GoBlue72391 wrote:
TheSuzerain wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:So the narrative is Lauri is trash and just had "one hot month", but you want to blow up the team and give the bag to a dude who had 1 great game...in the preseason???

Hard pass.

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Lauri can never be good because of his defensive limitations. Hot shooting days, weeks, months doesn't change that sad reality for Lauri. He'll have to be on Duncan Robinson/Bertans level to overcome the defense problems.

THT is a projection. But he pretty clearly has a high level of skill coupled with physical talent (freakish wingspan coupled with strength). It's basically exchanging our cap space for an additional top 10 lotto pick. That's what THT is. You get another Patrick Williams type talent in exchange for paying P-Will's + Thad Young's cap hit. That's a deal I'd make.
There's plenty of good players who are below average defensively. Fun fact: Lauri shot 48% from the field and 34% from 3 during that "one hot month." I'd hardly call that hot, and I definitely wouldn't call it unsustainable, speaking purely from an efficiency point of view.

You can get a top 10 talent for a whole hell of a lot less than $90 million guaranteed dollars. That's the type of foolish risk that can cripple a franchise financially if it fails. It would make Felicio look like a value contract.

THT was a 2nd round pick. There's absolutely no evidence he's a top 10 talent, and there's even less evidence that he's worth $90 mil. I'm all for taking a chance on young, underutilized players with upside, but if that's anywhere near the asking price I'll look elsewhere.

You balk at the thought of paying a guy like Lauri $13 mil per season, but you want to empty the bag for a guy who has proven essentially nothing so far. Basically, you're paying him all that money simply because he's an unknown quantity. Imagine if some team drove the Brinks truck up to Gerald Green's house back in the day.

This is just the extreme opposite of GarPax. Instead of extreme conservatism and playing it safe, this is extreme "swing for the fences," both equally incompetent. I fully understand the desire to acquire athletic, lengthy, versatile, multidimensional talents, but this ain't it.

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There is nothing that risky about paying THT big money if we're resetting the rebuild clock. It will only "prevent" us from making Thad/Sato/Felicio type signings.

I really doubt you can get a top 10 talent for much less than $90 million. That's closer to the actual true market value of such a prospect. And even if it's a bit of an overpay, we're in a cap position where there is ample cap space. And we have nobody really important to re-up until PWill in 2025. We're on a bit of a free-roll for a while.

THT is definitely a better prospect than Lauri. More defensive value almost by default. Far better ball skills. Likely a worse shooter, but THT is better at shooting than Lauri is at his secondary traits.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#18 » by GoBlue72391 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 7:05 am

TheSuzerain wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:
TheSuzerain wrote:Lauri can never be good because of his defensive limitations. Hot shooting days, weeks, months doesn't change that sad reality for Lauri. He'll have to be on Duncan Robinson/Bertans level to overcome the defense problems.

THT is a projection. But he pretty clearly has a high level of skill coupled with physical talent (freakish wingspan coupled with strength). It's basically exchanging our cap space for an additional top 10 lotto pick. That's what THT is. You get another Patrick Williams type talent in exchange for paying P-Will's + Thad Young's cap hit. That's a deal I'd make.
There's plenty of good players who are below average defensively. Fun fact: Lauri shot 48% from the field and 34% from 3 during that "one hot month." I'd hardly call that hot, and I definitely wouldn't call it unsustainable, speaking purely from an efficiency point of view.

You can get a top 10 talent for a whole hell of a lot less than $90 million guaranteed dollars. That's the type of foolish risk that can cripple a franchise financially if it fails. It would make Felicio look like a value contract.

THT was a 2nd round pick. There's absolutely no evidence he's a top 10 talent, and there's even less evidence that he's worth $90 mil. I'm all for taking a chance on young, underutilized players with upside, but if that's anywhere near the asking price I'll look elsewhere.

You balk at the thought of paying a guy like Lauri $13 mil per season, but you want to empty the bag for a guy who has proven essentially nothing so far. Basically, you're paying him all that money simply because he's an unknown quantity. Imagine if some team drove the Brinks truck up to Gerald Green's house back in the day.

This is just the extreme opposite of GarPax. Instead of extreme conservatism and playing it safe, this is extreme "swing for the fences," both equally incompetent. I fully understand the desire to acquire athletic, lengthy, versatile, multidimensional talents, but this ain't it.

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There is nothing that risky about paying THT big money if we're resetting the rebuild clock. It will only "prevent" us from making Thad/Sato/Felicio type signings.

I really doubt you can get a top 10 talent for much less than $90 million. That's closer to the actual true market value of such a prospect. And even if it's a bit of an overpay, we're in a cap position where there is ample cap space. And we have nobody really important to re-up until PWill in 2025. We're on a bit of a free-roll for a while.

THT is definitely a better prospect than Lauri. More defensive value almost by default. Far better ball skills. Likely a worse shooter, but THT is better at shooting than Lauri is at his secondary traits.
Just to be clear, you think a 2nd round pick who has played a whopping 8 career NBA games is a vastly superior prospect to a 7th overall pick who was the quickest player to make 100 3s, made the all rookie first team, averaged 19 and 9 in his second season, and had a month of averaging 26 and 12?

I think you may be reading a tad bit too much into 1 preseason game and the LA effect.

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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#19 » by RSP83 » Sun Dec 27, 2020 7:09 am

I think Presti already figured it out, he sees zero chance to sign marquee free agent to OKC, and there are only very few FAs worth investing long term, hence he went to get all them 1st round picks.

AKME I think is seriously trying to get Bulls relevant again sooner. We heard ME mention "retooling", and AK mentioned he didn't expect Bulls to go this high again in the Draft. So I think their approach will be complete opposite to Presti's. If situation don't change much over the next 2 months, I expect AKME will be working that phone hard trying to get some deals done. I really can't see them sitting out this year not doing anything.
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Re: Assembling Core 2.0 

Post#20 » by DroseReturnChi » Sun Dec 27, 2020 7:41 am

TheSuzerain wrote:
THT is definitely a better prospect than Lauri. More defensive value almost by default. Far better ball skills. Likely a worse shooter, but THT is better at shooting than Lauri is at his secondary traits.


You watched just one youtube clip and claim he is a better prospect or did you actually follow him from hs to say he is a top 10 prospect?
Offering him 4/90 and waiving Lauri seems like a terrible gming more like 2k. Lakers are crap outside of their top 2 and if THT doesnt start, that tells me he isnt a great prospect.
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