Assembling Core 2.0
Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:40 am
Situation
So it is becoming increasingly clear even to the more optimistic posters that the GarPax core (Core 1.0) is a complete dud. Lavine, Lauri, WCJ, and Coby is a group of 1-way players that have very low basketball IQ. It's also a group of mostly 1-position or 0-position defenders which is not at all what you want as a foundation. I really don't see how you'd want any of those guys to be a part of the AK Core (Core 2.0). Now, maybe some of these guys could stick on the team in more complementary roles (if the price is right, and I expect it won't be for Lavine/Lauri), but to me we only have 1 person on the roster who is a core piece. And that is Patrick Williams.
The task at hand is to assemble a group of 4 players or so that fit with Patrick Williams and can be the new foundation of our roster.
Now the good news is that we have no long term money on the books at all. None of Core 1.0 has a long term contract. For this reason, we can overhaul the roster very rapidly. Needless to say, I really hope that's what we're doing.
2021 and 2022 Drafts
Very obvious avenue for new core members is going to be the 2021 draft. If we suck this year, and we can ensure that's the case by trading Lavine/Lauri/Sato, then we should have another high draft pick in the 2021 draft. Ideally, we would also grab a 2nd lotto pick by trading Lavine/Lauri.
We have a separate thread for draft prospects, so won't spend too much time here. Needless to say, we need to target versatile athletes with playmaking ability who can't be targeted on defense (basically the opposite of the players that GarPax targeted). Cunningham and Suggs fit very nicely in that archetype. Stay away from dumb players and low ceiling players.
If we're hitting reset (and we should), we'll likely be picking near the top in 2022 as well to add another core player. That's probably rough to hear, but this is not a quick-fix situation. Making attempts to salvage this in 1 offseason would be a huge mistake. We're building around a 19-year old. This is going to take a little time.
2021 Free Agency
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/
We will have money to play with in free agency. There will inevitably be some big veteran names at the top. We should not consider them at all. We also should not invest money in low upside role players, even if they are young. We want to target actual potential core members. Now that sounds like an impossible task as young potential core members are typically unattainable, but there are 2 names that jump out to me as having genuine upside, youth, and attainability.
1. Talen Horton Tucker
He's from Chicago. He's a RFA and would be subject to the Arenas rule. He is 21 years old and a very talented wing. He's going to have a rotation role with the Lakers this year but probably no more than that. And the Lakers cap table is so clogged (with a potential Schroeder extension to come), we can snag THT with an aggressive offer. The Arenas rule makes it complicated how the contract would be structured, but I think we would potentially need to offer something in the neighborhood of 4 years, $80-90 million. I realize that is an eye-popping figure, but I would also argue that bringing a potential young core member into the fold is absolutely the best way to spend our money. We would essentially be buying a top 10 lotto pick with cap dollars that we have no other useful way to use beyond eating bad contracts for draft picks.
2. Terence Davis
Undrafted player last year who stepped into Toronto and was immediately a contender level role player. He's a bit older at 23, but he checks just about every box you'd want in a combo guard these days. Very athletic with good size/wingspan as a combo guard. Has a nice shooting stroke. Scored with decent volume already (dropped 31 on the Bulls). Not a great passer/playmaker but he's competent. Solid defense. I don't see star level upside for him as may be the case with THT, but I think he can be a starter-level player on a contender which would make him close to a core level player. Same Arenas rule stuff applies. The contract it would take is a bit less clear here. He did have a legal dust-up in the offseason. And he's not in the Raptors rotation right now. Tough to gauge what the Raptors would match/not-match. Let's say 4 years $60 million scares them off.
Both would be required to be flat contracts due to the Arenas rule, so that's nice. Worst case scenario, they bust and we have large expiring deals with which to make deals before we even need to extend the 2021 lotto picks. Neither contract would interfere with having multiple max cap slots in offseasons to come.
The Result
Core/Franchise Guys
1. Patrick Williams
2. THT
3. 2021 Bulls High Lottery Pick
4. 2022 Bulls High Lottery Pick
Fringe Core - Potential Starters
5. Terence Davis
6. and beyond - Additional Draft picks we acquire by trading Core 1.0 members or taking on bad contracts. The more of these we can acquire by blowing up the current roster, the more margin for error we're going to have with Rebuild 2.0. We should aggressively pursue such trades.
To me, that actually constitutes a quality young core that we can build around. I do understand that starting another 2-year plan after the basketball hell we've been living through would be tough. But in this case, we don't have a choice if we're actually trying to build a contender in Chicago. As early as the 2021-22 season, we could be a team that's enjoyable to watch for the home-town fans. I think people will be surprised at how refreshing it'll be to watch the team when you remove the dumb players and the defensive sieves.
So it is becoming increasingly clear even to the more optimistic posters that the GarPax core (Core 1.0) is a complete dud. Lavine, Lauri, WCJ, and Coby is a group of 1-way players that have very low basketball IQ. It's also a group of mostly 1-position or 0-position defenders which is not at all what you want as a foundation. I really don't see how you'd want any of those guys to be a part of the AK Core (Core 2.0). Now, maybe some of these guys could stick on the team in more complementary roles (if the price is right, and I expect it won't be for Lavine/Lauri), but to me we only have 1 person on the roster who is a core piece. And that is Patrick Williams.
The task at hand is to assemble a group of 4 players or so that fit with Patrick Williams and can be the new foundation of our roster.
Now the good news is that we have no long term money on the books at all. None of Core 1.0 has a long term contract. For this reason, we can overhaul the roster very rapidly. Needless to say, I really hope that's what we're doing.
2021 and 2022 Drafts
Very obvious avenue for new core members is going to be the 2021 draft. If we suck this year, and we can ensure that's the case by trading Lavine/Lauri/Sato, then we should have another high draft pick in the 2021 draft. Ideally, we would also grab a 2nd lotto pick by trading Lavine/Lauri.
We have a separate thread for draft prospects, so won't spend too much time here. Needless to say, we need to target versatile athletes with playmaking ability who can't be targeted on defense (basically the opposite of the players that GarPax targeted). Cunningham and Suggs fit very nicely in that archetype. Stay away from dumb players and low ceiling players.
If we're hitting reset (and we should), we'll likely be picking near the top in 2022 as well to add another core player. That's probably rough to hear, but this is not a quick-fix situation. Making attempts to salvage this in 1 offseason would be a huge mistake. We're building around a 19-year old. This is going to take a little time.
2021 Free Agency
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2021/
We will have money to play with in free agency. There will inevitably be some big veteran names at the top. We should not consider them at all. We also should not invest money in low upside role players, even if they are young. We want to target actual potential core members. Now that sounds like an impossible task as young potential core members are typically unattainable, but there are 2 names that jump out to me as having genuine upside, youth, and attainability.
1. Talen Horton Tucker
He's from Chicago. He's a RFA and would be subject to the Arenas rule. He is 21 years old and a very talented wing. He's going to have a rotation role with the Lakers this year but probably no more than that. And the Lakers cap table is so clogged (with a potential Schroeder extension to come), we can snag THT with an aggressive offer. The Arenas rule makes it complicated how the contract would be structured, but I think we would potentially need to offer something in the neighborhood of 4 years, $80-90 million. I realize that is an eye-popping figure, but I would also argue that bringing a potential young core member into the fold is absolutely the best way to spend our money. We would essentially be buying a top 10 lotto pick with cap dollars that we have no other useful way to use beyond eating bad contracts for draft picks.
2. Terence Davis
Undrafted player last year who stepped into Toronto and was immediately a contender level role player. He's a bit older at 23, but he checks just about every box you'd want in a combo guard these days. Very athletic with good size/wingspan as a combo guard. Has a nice shooting stroke. Scored with decent volume already (dropped 31 on the Bulls). Not a great passer/playmaker but he's competent. Solid defense. I don't see star level upside for him as may be the case with THT, but I think he can be a starter-level player on a contender which would make him close to a core level player. Same Arenas rule stuff applies. The contract it would take is a bit less clear here. He did have a legal dust-up in the offseason. And he's not in the Raptors rotation right now. Tough to gauge what the Raptors would match/not-match. Let's say 4 years $60 million scares them off.
Both would be required to be flat contracts due to the Arenas rule, so that's nice. Worst case scenario, they bust and we have large expiring deals with which to make deals before we even need to extend the 2021 lotto picks. Neither contract would interfere with having multiple max cap slots in offseasons to come.
The Result
Core/Franchise Guys
1. Patrick Williams
2. THT
3. 2021 Bulls High Lottery Pick
4. 2022 Bulls High Lottery Pick
Fringe Core - Potential Starters
5. Terence Davis
6. and beyond - Additional Draft picks we acquire by trading Core 1.0 members or taking on bad contracts. The more of these we can acquire by blowing up the current roster, the more margin for error we're going to have with Rebuild 2.0. We should aggressively pursue such trades.
To me, that actually constitutes a quality young core that we can build around. I do understand that starting another 2-year plan after the basketball hell we've been living through would be tough. But in this case, we don't have a choice if we're actually trying to build a contender in Chicago. As early as the 2021-22 season, we could be a team that's enjoyable to watch for the home-town fans. I think people will be surprised at how refreshing it'll be to watch the team when you remove the dumb players and the defensive sieves.