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The Bulls should rebuild now.

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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#41 » by SfBull » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:21 am

No.Just keep developing the young guys with a good coach like Donovan.They're seemingly learning a lot from him.The situation changed after the beginning of this season.Blowing up the current roster for another tanking season will just lose all this improvement.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#42 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:23 am

cjbulls wrote:Last year's Bulls leader in BPM was Shaq Harrison. Is he the best player on the team?

This year's leader in On/Off offensive and defensive rating is Denzel Valentine, is he the best player on the team?

I put the context in there, but apparently it wasn't clear enough for you, so I'll repeat it:

Leslie Forman wrote:#1 on a bad team
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#43 » by netduri2 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:27 am

cjbulls wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:
netduri2 wrote:offensive rating : on 112.6 off 111.6
defensive rating : on 120.4 off 107.1

The thing that's really going over people's heads besides the consistently poor impact numbers Zach has, is that even his box score-related numbers really don't indicate he's any sort of #2 on a a title team either.

This amazing season everybody thinks is worthy of $40million a year, he's putting up a whopping .9 BPM. It was actually better last year, at 2.4, which is his career high.

#2 title guys when they're a #1 on a bad team don't put up those numbers. They put up BPMs around 5, often higher.

Like, you know…Jimmy Butler.

Zach's WS/48 and BPM are closer to Ben Gordon level guys than Kyrie Irving level guys, let alone an Anthony Davis.


Only 10 guys in the NBA produced a BPM over 5. Zach ranked 35th in all of the NBA at BPM last year (at age 24). With 30 teams and roughly 2 maxes per team, I would say he's a max player by that stat alone.

Last year's Bulls leader in BPM was Shaq Harrison. Is he the best player on the team?

This year's leader in On/Off offensive and defensive rating is Denzel Valentine, is he the best player on the team?


You're missing the point. Nobody said ranking players only with stats is proper way.

Nobody petitions for giving max contract to Shaq Harrison or Denzel Valentine who makes great on-off impact.

If LaVine is truly the guy who can be the best or the second best player on title contenders he should have proved his ability before he gets max contract just like the way other players who got the max did.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#44 » by cjbulls » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:23 am

Leslie Forman wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Last year's Bulls leader in BPM was Shaq Harrison. Is he the best player on the team?

This year's leader in On/Off offensive and defensive rating is Denzel Valentine, is he the best player on the team?

I put the context in there, but apparently it wasn't clear enough for you, so I'll repeat it:

Leslie Forman wrote:#1 on a bad team


Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#45 » by Am2626 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:21 am

Hold That wrote:
Red8911 wrote:The bulls need to build not rebuild. Trading Lavine for picks is just a bad idea that will set them backwards again. Why not keep Lavine and get him more help for a change? Start making basketball moves again to improve the roster ! AK needs to get to work already.

We are one of the bottom 5 teams in the league. Set us backwards how ? Especially when you’re already at the bottom. And this team does not have a single player under 25 that’s projected to be a stud. This is the perfect time to hit a reset button because there’s literally not much to reset outside of Lavine.


That’s precisely why the Bulls need to be in the draft lottery. However with the new lottery odds they don’t have to gut the team or hit the reset button. They can continue to develop what they have and still be in play for getting a franchise player in the draft.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#46 » by WindyCityBorn » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:29 am

Am2626 wrote:
Hold That wrote:
Red8911 wrote:The bulls need to build not rebuild. Trading Lavine for picks is just a bad idea that will set them backwards again. Why not keep Lavine and get him more help for a change? Start making basketball moves again to improve the roster ! AK needs to get to work already.

We are one of the bottom 5 teams in the league. Set us backwards how ? Especially when you’re already at the bottom. And this team does not have a single player under 25 that’s projected to be a stud. This is the perfect time to hit a reset button because there’s literally not much to reset outside of Lavine.


That’s precisely why the Bulls need to be in the draft lottery. However with the new lottery odds they don’t have to gut the team or hit the reset button. They can continue to develop what they have and still be in play for getting a franchise player in the draft.


We have projected Williams won’t be a stud? Based on what? Definitely not his on court performance so far.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#47 » by Am2626 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:33 am

WindyCityBorn wrote:
Am2626 wrote:
Hold That wrote:We are one of the bottom 5 teams in the league. Set us backwards how ? Especially when you’re already at the bottom. And this team does not have a single player under 25 that’s projected to be a stud. This is the perfect time to hit a reset button because there’s literally not much to reset outside of Lavine.


That’s precisely why the Bulls need to be in the draft lottery. However with the new lottery odds they don’t have to gut the team or hit the reset button. They can continue to develop what they have and still be in play for getting a franchise player in the draft.


We have projected Williams won’t be a stud? Based on what? Definitely not his on court performance so far.


I think by Stud you are basically saying that he will eventually become a true number 1 on a contending team. I don’t see that ever happening. He can project into an All Star one day but he doesn’t have the talent to be a top 5 player in the league.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#48 » by DroseReturnChi » Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:38 am

cjbulls wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Last year's Bulls leader in BPM was Shaq Harrison. Is he the best player on the team?

This year's leader in On/Off offensive and defensive rating is Denzel Valentine, is he the best player on the team?

I put the context in there, but apparently it wasn't clear enough for you, so I'll repeat it:

Leslie Forman wrote:#1 on a bad team


Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.


Your getting paid 40mil a yr and how is it worth if your not a number 1 option? I mean if i was Zach, I would be embarrassed to demand that kind of amt in the first place. Eye test tells me hes top 50 player impact wise similar to Otto Porter.
But yeah Zach seems crazy he thinks hes Kobe 2.0 with the way hes approaching 4th quarter. Every game has to be decided by him.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#49 » by gobullschi » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:09 am

DroseReturnChi wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:I put the context in there, but apparently it wasn't clear enough for you, so I'll repeat it:



Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.


Your getting paid 40mil a yr and how is it worth if your not a number 1 option? I mean if i was Zach, I would be embarrassed to demand that kind of amt in the first place. Eye test tells me hes top 50 player impact wise similar to Otto Porter.
But yeah Zach seems crazy he thinks hes Kobe 2.0 with the way hes approaching 4th quarter. Every game has to be decided by him.


Go to the eye doctor.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#50 » by beeshma » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:13 am

A "rebuild" only applies if we had long-in-the-tooth veterans with value around the league, and were ready to move on to a new era of the team. We are nothing like that! We have a collection of mostly unproven talent. Let's not rebuild, let's evaluate players, ship them off after we conclude they're not improving, and bring in new players and draft picks.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#51 » by PrimzyBulls81 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:19 am

People just dont get it LOL, another rebuild post, more trade Lavine bs!?!?!
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#52 » by BigJimFinn » Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:48 am

cjbulls wrote:
netduri2 wrote:Keeping LaVine means you are gonna give him massive contract after his current team-friendly contract ends. His eligible max contract will be more than current 30% max - 190 mil / 5 years. MORE THAN 190 mil / 5 years.

Are you sure giving him near max contract is a good idea after two years? He still has too many flaws to be a go-to-guy on title contenders. Poor defensive awareness, too many turnovers, not good AST:TO ratio, tendency to take tough shots etc. And his on/off stats are still seriously bad.

Despite of his recent impressive scoring our offensive rating difference between the time he is on the court and off the court is quite small. When he's on the floor our offensive rating is 112.6 and when he's off the floor it's 111.6 so the difference is very little. On defensive end when he's on the floor our defensive rating is 120.4 which is really terrible. When he's off the floor it dramatically drops to 107.1

offensive rating : on 112.6 off 111.6
defensive rating : on 120.4 off 107.1

OFC It's not all on Zach being a bad defender but it is certain at least he's a part of the problem. But no matter we keep him or not we desperately need a REAL top 10-15 player if the Bulls really want to reach to high stage like the Conference Finals or NBA Finals. What's the point overpaying him if you still need to find a top10 player then?


Max contracts aren't just for go-to guys on title teams. On almost every team, the top two guys are max guys


And almost every team are not contenders. Giving 30% max contracts to non-superstars, or 35% max to already fading non-winning superstars, is surest way to fix your ceiling below the top level.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#53 » by WindyCityBorn » Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:57 am

Am2626 wrote:
WindyCityBorn wrote:
Am2626 wrote:
That’s precisely why the Bulls need to be in the draft lottery. However with the new lottery odds they don’t have to gut the team or hit the reset button. They can continue to develop what they have and still be in play for getting a franchise player in the draft.


We have projected Williams won’t be a stud? Based on what? Definitely not his on court performance so far.


I think by Stud you are basically saying that he will eventually become a true number 1 on a contending team. I don’t see that ever happening. He can project into an All Star one day but he doesn’t have the talent to be a top 5 player in the league.


Bad news for you then. Those type of players are ultra rare. Maybe 3 or 4 in the entire league right now. We will be in the lottery forever if that is the goal. It’s much common to sign or trade for that level of player than draft one and actually win something with them.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#54 » by DroseReturnChi » Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:22 am

Am2626 wrote:
Hold That wrote:
Red8911 wrote:The bulls need to build not rebuild. Trading Lavine for picks is just a bad idea that will set them backwards again. Why not keep Lavine and get him more help for a change? Start making basketball moves again to improve the roster ! AK needs to get to work already.

We are one of the bottom 5 teams in the league. Set us backwards how ? Especially when you’re already at the bottom. And this team does not have a single player under 25 that’s projected to be a stud. This is the perfect time to hit a reset button because there’s literally not much to reset outside of Lavine.


That’s precisely why the Bulls need to be in the draft lottery. However with the new lottery odds they don’t have to gut the team or hit the reset button. They can continue to develop what they have and still be in play for getting a franchise player in the draft.


No. you still have to be bottom top 5 team to get a stud under age 20. Right now, we have one stud in PW and need 2 more to go.
I expect AK, a top drafting gm, to complete this rebuild in 2 yrs. Just tank until 2022 and go for championships once lebron, nets are washed up. The timeline all fits too well not to gut. I just dont want Lavine to add 5 wins and mess up a potential dynasty.

If you truly think White/Carter are building blocks, your truly wrong this is rebuild yr 1 done properly. Garpax did a retool never tanked and wasted 3 yrs. Atlanta is paying the price for not tanking and selling another lavine type fools gold in Collins.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#55 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:16 am

cjbulls wrote:Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.

Stop being so obtuse. I'm clearly saying high box score metrics aren't proof, they're a minimum baseline if you have terrible on/off metrics too.

high box score metrics =/= superstar, throw the Brinks truck at him

terrible box score metrics, terrible impact metrics = this guy is absolutely not a max cat

Zach puts up terrible on/off metrics, at best mediocre box score metrics, the team keeps sucking, and people want to give him the $200million they didn't want to give to Jimmy Butler, who was putting up huge box+on/off impact numbers and, not coincidentally, leading the team to more wins?

Everyone criticized the old regime for how much they fell in love with and totally overvalued their guys, well…you all are doing it worse right now than they ever did.

Giving Zach LaVine $200 million would be so bad, it'd end up with some new CBA rule named after his contract.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#56 » by troza » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:35 am

DroseReturnChi wrote:Just tank until 2022 and go for championships once lebron, nets are washed up.


If Luka Dondic and the unicorn get really good in Dallas and let's say the Celtics develop into a major team, should we keep waiting? Or 76ers... I don't know.

I mean... I will not be against tanking but I'm against tanking in the way it is defended here... trade everyone for nothing or almost nothing (lets be realistic... that's the value of our assets right now) when there is no one looking for players like the ones we have (just to enforce why it is for nothing right now) makes no sense.

If we are one of the worst records on the league, we are already tanking. We can always decide to stop trying to win anytime in the near future.

But... the Raptors were decent until they found a break (Leonard and Lebron on the west coast). They weren't blowing everything to start again because they weren't contenders.

Even the 76ers knew they had to stop tanking at some point and try to make it work. They aren't that close to the title... should they just start again?

It is just that I don't get the restart just for the sake of restarting.
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#57 » by rtblues » Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:09 pm

Didn't know where to ask this, so it's here.
What does Wendel Carter Jr. not finishing games mean?
There's been a lot of debate about his play, and his recent improvement, so what implications does the fact that he hasn't been playing late in games have and mean? Somehow it feels like 1 step forward and 2 backwards. Is he the guy, or not the guy? And why, exactly, did Coach decide this?
"I wouldn’t call it a rebuild; more of a retool.” - Gar Forman, June 2016
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#58 » by cjbulls » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:04 pm

BigJimFinn wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
netduri2 wrote:Keeping LaVine means you are gonna give him massive contract after his current team-friendly contract ends. His eligible max contract will be more than current 30% max - 190 mil / 5 years. MORE THAN 190 mil / 5 years.

Are you sure giving him near max contract is a good idea after two years? He still has too many flaws to be a go-to-guy on title contenders. Poor defensive awareness, too many turnovers, not good AST:TO ratio, tendency to take tough shots etc. And his on/off stats are still seriously bad.

Despite of his recent impressive scoring our offensive rating difference between the time he is on the court and off the court is quite small. When he's on the floor our offensive rating is 112.6 and when he's off the floor it's 111.6 so the difference is very little. On defensive end when he's on the floor our defensive rating is 120.4 which is really terrible. When he's off the floor it dramatically drops to 107.1

offensive rating : on 112.6 off 111.6
defensive rating : on 120.4 off 107.1

OFC It's not all on Zach being a bad defender but it is certain at least he's a part of the problem. But no matter we keep him or not we desperately need a REAL top 10-15 player if the Bulls really want to reach to high stage like the Conference Finals or NBA Finals. What's the point overpaying him if you still need to find a top10 player then?


Max contracts aren't just for go-to guys on title teams. On almost every team, the top two guys are max guys


And almost every team are not contenders. Giving 30% max contracts to non-superstars, or 35% max to already fading non-winning superstars, is surest way to fix your ceiling below the top level.


Bulls can’t get out of the bottom level and you’re fixated on ceiling.

There are no ceiling limitations anymore because every big contract can be traded. Virtually every “terrible” contract has been moved in the last 24 months. Wiggins, Wall, Otto, Horford, Chris Paul (three times!)
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#59 » by gobullschi » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:09 pm

Leslie Forman wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.

Stop being so obtuse. I'm clearly saying high box score metrics aren't proof, they're a minimum baseline if you have terrible on/off metrics too.

high box score metrics =/= superstar, throw the Brinks truck at him

terrible box score metrics, terrible impact metrics = this guy is absolutely not a max cat

Zach puts up terrible on/off metrics, at best mediocre box score metrics, the team keeps sucking, and people want to give him the $200million they didn't want to give to Jimmy Butler, who was putting up huge box+on/off impact numbers and, not coincidentally, leading the team to more wins?

Everyone criticized the old regime for how much they fell in love with and totally overvalued their guys, well…you all are doing it worse right now than they ever did.

Giving Zach LaVine $200 million would be so bad, it'd end up with some new CBA rule named after his contract.


Players on a basic contract (like the four-year, $78 million contract LaVine signed two years ago) are eligible to sign an extension two years to the day of signing the original one. The max-extension a player on that contract can sign is up to five years, but that includes the years remaining on the current contract. In other words, if LaVine signed an extension this offseason, he could only do it for three seasons because he has two seasons still left on his current contract. As for the finances, he is allowed to make 120% annually of the money he was making in his final season. To put that in other words, he is making 19.5 mil, so he can now make 23.4 mil in his first season of the extension. Then, he is eligible for an 8% raise each year of the contract. Thus, we get the 25.3 million in year 2 and the 27.1 million in year 3 of the extension.

https://www.bleachernation.com/bulls/2020/08/12/the-bulls-can-extend-zach-lavine-as-soon-as-this-offseason-but-is-it-all-that-likely/
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Re: The Bulls should rebuild now. 

Post#60 » by cjbulls » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:13 pm

Leslie Forman wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Ok, Jimmy Butler was #10 last year in BPM, who beat him out at #9? Nikola Vucevic. Is Vucevic a max player?

These advanced stats are nice, but they never accurately capture what is going on. Zach is stuck being the scoring star on a bad team. The stats do not account for that because he's put in a role that he probably doesn't belong in and doesn't have much help, including an atrocious coach.

Without doubt, he's not a championship #1, but there should be a debate about his value compared to Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray, Kemba Walker, or whoever you want to designate the #2 or #3 guy on most contending teams. Switch him with Middleton and then let's check the stats for both guys.

We have seen repeatedly lately that even the top stars cannot carry garbage situations, whether it's MVPs LeBron or Curry.

That's the context you are leaving out.

Stop being so obtuse. I'm clearly saying high box score metrics aren't proof, they're a minimum baseline if you have terrible on/off metrics too.

high box score metrics =/= superstar, throw the Brinks truck at him

terrible box score metrics, terrible impact metrics = this guy is absolutely not a max cat

Zach puts up terrible on/off metrics, at best mediocre box score metrics, the team keeps sucking, and people want to give him the $200million they didn't want to give to Jimmy Butler, who was putting up huge box+on/off impact numbers and, not coincidentally, leading the team to more wins?

Everyone criticized the old regime for how much they fell in love with and totally overvalued their guys, well…you all are doing it worse right now than they ever did.

Giving Zach LaVine $200 million would be so bad, it'd end up with some new CBA rule named after his contract.


The 2000 Bulls had Brad Miller (24), Elton Brand (21), Ron Artest (21) and Jamal Crawford (20) all on the same team. Three of them went on to be all stars and they also have one DPOY (and multiple all defense teams) and multiple 6MOY awards. But they were broken up in favor of another tank rebuild. Ages of the current starting lineup are 20, 25, 19, 23, 20.

The key to winning is talent AND experience. If you trade off all the talent before (1) surrounding them with both talent and experience and (2) they gain the requisite experience, you will be a treadmill team, but even worse, a team that treadmills at the bottom of the league a la Sacramento.

Lost in all the ridiculous PW is Kawhi, Paul George and Jimmy Butler all wrapped into one, is that all 3 started their career on decent teams and were able to grow up learning from other players that had talent and knew how to win. Most young players need a good environment to excel, but you want to tank all that and pray instead.

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