Image ImageImage Image

Bulls net ratings

Moderators: HomoSapien, Ice Man, dougthonus, Tommy Udo 6 , DASMACKDOWN, GimmeDat, Payt10, RedBulls23, coldfish, fleet, AshyLarrysDiaper, kulaz3000, Michael Jackson

User avatar
coldfish
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 59,067
And1: 35,308
Joined: Jun 11, 2004
Location: Right in the middle
   

Bulls net ratings 

Post#1 » by coldfish » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:28 pm

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/lineups/
Lineups

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/on-off/
Players

If you have watched the Bulls objectively, just about nothing here is surprising. Random observations:
- Wendell, Coby and Lauri have the worst net ratings in that order. Wendell and Coby in particular kill the team and anyone playing with them.
- All of the vets have the best net ratings. Surprising no one, Temple and Young are the best player pair followed by Zach and Young.
- Zach is in all of the best 5 man units along with Young.
- Lauri and Wendell aren't in any good groupings.
- PW isn't hurting the team

To a large degree, BD's set rotation has skewed things a little but it has clearly shown just how bad the "core" is when it plays together.

I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.
WindyCityBorn
RealGM
Posts: 20,423
And1: 10,789
Joined: Jun 26, 2014
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#2 » by WindyCityBorn » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:38 pm

I’m fine with moving on from any “core” piece not named LaVine or Williams. In fact I would prefer if if we can get something good in return. Coby can stay can go back to the bench.
User avatar
FriedRise
RealGM
Posts: 13,909
And1: 13,058
Joined: Jan 13, 2015
Location: Chicago
 

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#3 » by FriedRise » Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:28 pm

I was wondering if this would have any impact to his DRPM also, which is the worst in the league in terms of all shooting guards. It seems like it does because the starting lineup he’s had to spend the most time playing with is just terrible defensively.
MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 21,824
And1: 10,083
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#4 » by MrSparkle » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:53 pm

To me, the one constant since last year has been that the "core" (as in Coby-Zach-PW-Lauri-Wendell) is absolutely terrible when they play together, and it didn't matter if Otto replaced rookie PW last year. And it's pretty simple; it's cause the front-court is a step slow at every spot. It's a line-up for the 2001 NBA.

It was established that it wasn't a "winning" decision as much as development/evaluation. To me it's very simple:

- Zach and Coby are not good defenders, plus they need a lot of energy for shooting.

- Lauri and Wendell slow the game down, which makes the offense harder, but it also makes defensive rotations harder, exposing the back-court even more.

- PW can play multiple spots, but he's more comfortable at PF. By playing big at SF, all issues above are exacerbated.

- Playing big just doesn't work in today's NBA, not even with the best damn big men in the game. Even LAL's Davis is a situational PF. It was also an anomaly circumstance that the uber-big Nuggets met them in the WCFs; if not for that, I'm sure we would've seen 10 minutes total of Howard. But you can't even say that the Lakers are at their best when they play Davis at PF for 40 mpg, despite him being the best "PF big" in the game since Garnett.

Now with that all said, the sample sizes are low, but a majority of the best 5-man combinations have Coby in the line-up (going off the PTS: Points vs Opponent Points +/-). Not surprising to me at all that Lauri is in none of the 'plus' lineups. Even Wendell has a +15 rating with Temple-Coby-Zach-Pat, even though most his line-ups are negatives too. But to mitigate that, just play him with 4 light-creators (ie Coby, Zach, Temple/Sato, Valentine or PW).

To me it's been pretty consistent. If you want to nuke/tank, just play big at SF & PF. If you want to make gains, albeit with a ceiling, just play small (Valentine/Sato/Temple at SF, Pat at PF, Thad at C).

Also, I know he doesn't have much of a future here anymore, due to whatever breakdown he's had in his body and conditioning, but Otto is not a SF anymore. Full-Time PF , spot-minute SF.

Last year's ECFs teams played small ("SG" at SF & "SF" at PF). Donovan's over-achieving OKC team played small at SF & PF. It's the way of the NBA.

IMO pursue more multi-position wings like Dort, Diallo, Keldon Johnson to fill out the rotation instead of the centers on the books... and obviously evaluate whether Hutchison is able to ever play.
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#5 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:00 pm

Does anyone know where we can get on/off values for player_x on and coby off? I wanna see how much of an anchor coby has been at PG so far
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#6 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:03 pm

Coby as an anchor is very obvious by the eye test.

WCJ being next up is also obvious because he was straight dreadful to start the season. Unlike coby though, he was starting to turn it around and got injured

Lauri being next up is also expected. Lauri's values are more skewed by the mess the team was the first few games just by the limited games he's played. Since returning from the covid break he was rapidly climbing (I think he was worst on the team while he was on break)...until he was out again
Kukoc-Lauri
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,255
And1: 414
Joined: Oct 20, 2020

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#7 » by Kukoc-Lauri » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:15 pm

Playing big is reciepe to win a championship title. Lebron as pg, A.Davis as pf, Howard/McGee on center, Marc Gasol and Ibaka as pf/c combo with hughe guards Leonard,Siakam,Anounoby. Embiid,Jokic as Mvp candidates. Bulls struggles mightly against big, athlethic teams like Lakers,Celtics,Pacers,Bucks. Gsw with best shooting backcourt ever played best with old school bigs like Bogut/Mcgee as rim protection, huge facilitators as Igoudala,Livingston,Green. Williams is sf, he should play like J.Brown,Kawhi,Og Anunoby they played on small forward most times.
chefo
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,274
And1: 2,386
Joined: Apr 29, 2009

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#8 » by chefo » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:16 pm

coldfish wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/lineups/
Lineups

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/on-off/
Players

If you have watched the Bulls objectively, just about nothing here is surprising. Random observations:
- Wendell, Coby and Lauri have the worst net ratings in that order. Wendell and Coby in particular kill the team and anyone playing with them.
- All of the vets have the best net ratings. Surprising no one, Temple and Young are the best player pair followed by Zach and Young.
- Zach is in all of the best 5 man units along with Young.
- Lauri and Wendell aren't in any good groupings.
- PW isn't hurting the team

To a large degree, BD's set rotation has skewed things a little but it has clearly shown just how bad the "core" is when it plays together.

I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.


Just eye-balling it, Lauri has spent the vast majority of his time playing with two or more of the "kids"--White and WCJ, and these lineups have been pretty abysmal no matter who else is in them, including Zach. The biggest tell is Lavine because his +/- is more volatile than GameStop stock during a short squeeze.
Ice Man
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 24,940
And1: 13,592
Joined: Apr 19, 2011

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#9 » by Ice Man » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:30 pm

coldfish wrote:I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.


I'm not sure how much of a problem we have with the youngsters. They are on rookie contracts, so they are negative players. That is pretty much how this league works. Specifically, Lauri is alright when healthy, Wendell has been disappointing but in limited action, Coby looks like he might become a good off guard, and PWill is promising. That's not a terrible haul. I mean, Zach LaVine was a flat-out negative player throughout his rookie contract.

I realize that my statement conflicts with the usual marketing that goes along with rebuilding teams, but such is reality. I am not particularly disappointed with the kids. It would have been nice to land a franchise player, but maybe 2 such players come along each year. It's not surprising that, aside from perhaps Patrick, we haven't yet picked up one.
TheStig
RealGM
Posts: 14,692
And1: 3,899
Joined: Jun 18, 2004
Location: Get rid of GarPaxDorf

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#10 » by TheStig » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:33 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:I’m fine with moving on from any “core” piece not named LaVine or Williams. In fact I would prefer if if we can get something good in return. Coby can stay can go back to the bench.

Zach is a really nice player but I'd move on for the right price. I'm not enamored with our ability to keep him in 1.5 years or giving him a 5 year max. If we could get a really strong package, I'd do it.
MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 21,824
And1: 10,083
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#11 » by MrSparkle » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:36 pm

If you guys are so caught up in believing Lauri is victim to his back-court, why not check out the prior 3 years of 5-man line-up data? Just click previous year on the first link.

The only time he did moderately well (+9 or so) was when surrounded with 3-4 defenders ie combos of Shaq/Dunn/Sato/Wendell/Otto/Lopez. There’s an ultra small sample of Arci/Zach/Otto/Lauri/RoLo killing it 2 years ago at +51, when we acquired Otto at deadline and he was playing like a superstar (classic FebruaLauri). If that 3 week stretch and 52-minute sample is enough to make you believe, than I’m not sure what to say.

If you guys can find 4 excellent defensive players who can still score the ball and not put us in a bottom-tier brick offense (Carter, Dunn, Shaq anybody?), then please do. But fact is Lauri needs to be masked by extremely good defenders.

Meanwhile, the plus lineups without Lauri are in the +25 and 30 range.

If your backcourt is mediocre at defense... You just do the same thing every championship team ever did: get an elite defensive front court.

I agree that Lauri can be a good piece. But it’s a niche: he’s not flexible. And he’s injury prone. Why invest big bucks in a guy who isn’t a reliable engine?
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#12 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:38 pm

chefo wrote:
coldfish wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/lineups/
Lineups

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/on-off/
Players

If you have watched the Bulls objectively, just about nothing here is surprising. Random observations:
- Wendell, Coby and Lauri have the worst net ratings in that order. Wendell and Coby in particular kill the team and anyone playing with them.
- All of the vets have the best net ratings. Surprising no one, Temple and Young are the best player pair followed by Zach and Young.
- Zach is in all of the best 5 man units along with Young.
- Lauri and Wendell aren't in any good groupings.
- PW isn't hurting the team

To a large degree, BD's set rotation has skewed things a little but it has clearly shown just how bad the "core" is when it plays together.

I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.


Just eye-balling it, Lauri has spent the vast majority of his time playing with two or more of the "kids"--White and WCJ, and these lineups have been pretty abysmal no matter who else is in them, including Zach. The biggest tell is Lavine because his +/- is more volatile than GameStop stock during a short squeeze.


Found it. Ouch. The numbers are even worse than the eye test for cob. Y'all don't understand how much of an anchor he is....


____ with Coby on vs off (p36):
Lavine:
on- 27ppg @ 63%TS, +/- -7.2, USG 28.7, ORTG 110, DRTG 119, NET -9.6
off- 32ppg @ 69%TS, +/- +7.8, USG 31.5, ORTG 117, DRTG 105, NET +11.3

Lauri:
on- 20ppg @ 62%TS, +/- -11.7, USG 20.9, ORTG 99, DRTG 115, NET -15.4
off- 31ppg @ 76%TS, +/- +9.0, USG 25.5, ORTG 120, DRTG 108, NET +11.3

PWill:
on- 14ppg @ 57%TS, +/- -6.4, USG 16.6, ORTG 107, DRTG 116, NET -8.4
off- 13ppg @ 54%TS, +/- +8.9, USG 16.3, ORTG 113, DRTG 102, NET +10.3

WCJ:
on- 22ppg @ 58%TS, +/- -13.4, USG 19.4, ORTG 108, DRTG 115, NET -6.9
off- 16ppg @ 68%TS, +/- -5.5, USG 18.8, ORTG 107, DRTG 123, NET -15.3


yuck. This explains why Lavine's and Lauri's on off numbers are horribly bad even though they have been top of the league in elite volume scoring/efficiency. They are unfortunately grouped with Coby the majority of the time they are on the court. Otherwise we would be a +11.3 team with Lavine/Lauri and not Coby.

Also it explains the struggles with WCJ on the court. With WCJ and Coby on the court together, the offense is force fed through WCJ more and away from Lauri/Lavine (the less efficient option)

Found on NBA.com site: https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!?PlayerID=1628976&VsPlayerID=1629632&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&sort=PTS&dir=1
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#13 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:38 pm

MrSparkle wrote:If you guys are so caught up in believing Lauri is victim to his back-court, why not check out the prior 3 years of 5-man line-up data? Just click previous year on the first link.

The only time he did moderately well (+9 or so) was when surrounded with 3-4 defenders ie combos of Shaq/Dunn/Sato/Wendell/Otto/Lopez.

If you guys can find 4 excellent defensive players who can still score the ball and not put us in a bottom-tier brick offense (Carter, Dunn, Shaq anybody?), then please do. But fact is Lauri needs to be masked by extremely good defenders.

Meanwhile, the plus lineups without Lauri are in the +25 and 30 range.

If your backcourt is mediocre at defense... You just do the same thing every championship team ever did: get an elite defensive front court.

I agree that Lauri can be a good piece. But it’s a niche: he’s not flexible. And he’s injury prone. Why invest big bucks in a guy who isn’t a reliable engine?


Look at my post following. It literally is ALL on Coby. And with Lauri reliant on a playmaker for his shots, he is affected the most by it.
MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 21,824
And1: 10,083
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#14 » by MrSparkle » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:41 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:If you guys are so caught up in believing Lauri is victim to his back-court, why not check out the prior 3 years of 5-man line-up data? Just click previous year on the first link.

The only time he did moderately well (+9 or so) was when surrounded with 3-4 defenders ie combos of Shaq/Dunn/Sato/Wendell/Otto/Lopez.

If you guys can find 4 excellent defensive players who can still score the ball and not put us in a bottom-tier brick offense (Carter, Dunn, Shaq anybody?), then please do. But fact is Lauri needs to be masked by extremely good defenders.

Meanwhile, the plus lineups without Lauri are in the +25 and 30 range.

If your backcourt is mediocre at defense... You just do the same thing every championship team ever did: get an elite defensive front court.

I agree that Lauri can be a good piece. But it’s a niche: he’s not flexible. And he’s injury prone. Why invest big bucks in a guy who isn’t a reliable engine?


Look at my post following. It literally is ALL on Coby. And with Lauri reliant on a playmaker for his shots, he is affected the most by it.


Great finds - explains why our starting line up without Coby was so good last year, and why Lauri & Wendell were killing the NBA before Coby was drafted.

Again, I won’t argue that Coby has been bad at a lot of things. But he’s not in his 4th year, contract year, looking for $20m+. Furthermore, he has been healthy every year, and he’s going to improve his shooting %, because it doesn’t match his skill (just as I could’ve told you Lauri’s % last year were underperforming).
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#15 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:48 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:If you guys are so caught up in believing Lauri is victim to his back-court, why not check out the prior 3 years of 5-man line-up data? Just click previous year on the first link.

The only time he did moderately well (+9 or so) was when surrounded with 3-4 defenders ie combos of Shaq/Dunn/Sato/Wendell/Otto/Lopez.

If you guys can find 4 excellent defensive players who can still score the ball and not put us in a bottom-tier brick offense (Carter, Dunn, Shaq anybody?), then please do. But fact is Lauri needs to be masked by extremely good defenders.

Meanwhile, the plus lineups without Lauri are in the +25 and 30 range.

If your backcourt is mediocre at defense... You just do the same thing every championship team ever did: get an elite defensive front court.

I agree that Lauri can be a good piece. But it’s a niche: he’s not flexible. And he’s injury prone. Why invest big bucks in a guy who isn’t a reliable engine?


Look at my post following. It literally is ALL on Coby. And with Lauri reliant on a playmaker for his shots, he is affected the most by it.


Great finds - explains why our starting line up without Coby was so good last year, and why Lauri & Wendell were killing the NBA before Coby was drafted.

Again, I won’t argue that Coby has been bad at a lot of things. But he’s not in his 4th year, contract year, looking for $20m+. Furthermore, he has been healthy every year, and he’s going to improve his shooting %, because it doesn’t match his skill (just as I could’ve told you Lauri’s % last year were underperforming).


Yes because Lauri and WCJ have been healthy and on the court for two years? Lavine was no where near the playmaker that he is this year. Last year's lavine was closer to this year's coby as a playmaker. Lauri obviously sucked last year and we all have went over why. He hasn't sucked this year...besides while playing with coby.

Coby the scorer I am not concerned with. Coby the primary ball handler and playmaker I am very over with. Even if his shooting percentages come up it won't drastically improve any of these ratings unless he shot lights out for the rest of the season..
chefo
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,274
And1: 2,386
Joined: Apr 29, 2009

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#16 » by chefo » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:55 pm

Just comparing to the eye-test:

The Bulls best players have been, in order:

Zach, Lauri (when playing), Thad, Otto (before his back gave out).

The Bulls worst big minute players have been, in order:
Coby (in a different zip code than the others), WCJ, Pat Williams and as of late, Temple. Pat Williams mostly because he drew the short stick of having to guard the monster wings and they usually made him look like the rook that he is. Coby, because he was G-league bad on D, and a huge drag on O, given the embarrassment of riches the Bulls have had on O this year. WCJ because... well, because his D is worse than his rookie year somehow.

I agree with Pakii94 -- the one common denominator has been Coby. Blame it on coach D for trying to force him to be a PG when he's obviously not, but kid had a stretch where he almost single-handedly cost the Bulls 3-4 games with how badly he got abused on both ends. It was bad enough that you could see it in the body language of his teammates when he'd check back in.

I hope he bounces back with his new role, because he's the one reason, apart from the **** reffing, why the Bulls are not comfortably above .500.
Hold That
RealGM
Posts: 12,399
And1: 740
Joined: Dec 07, 2001
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#17 » by Hold That » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:56 pm

As stated at the start of the season. The only core pieces are Zach,PWill, and our 2021 first round pick. Everyone else should be fire sold for picks and young players on short term deals.
User avatar
FriedRise
RealGM
Posts: 13,909
And1: 13,058
Joined: Jan 13, 2015
Location: Chicago
 

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#18 » by FriedRise » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:00 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
chefo wrote:
coldfish wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/lineups/
Lineups

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/on-off/
Players

If you have watched the Bulls objectively, just about nothing here is surprising. Random observations:
- Wendell, Coby and Lauri have the worst net ratings in that order. Wendell and Coby in particular kill the team and anyone playing with them.
- All of the vets have the best net ratings. Surprising no one, Temple and Young are the best player pair followed by Zach and Young.
- Zach is in all of the best 5 man units along with Young.
- Lauri and Wendell aren't in any good groupings.
- PW isn't hurting the team

To a large degree, BD's set rotation has skewed things a little but it has clearly shown just how bad the "core" is when it plays together.

I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.


Just eye-balling it, Lauri has spent the vast majority of his time playing with two or more of the "kids"--White and WCJ, and these lineups have been pretty abysmal no matter who else is in them, including Zach. The biggest tell is Lavine because his +/- is more volatile than GameStop stock during a short squeeze.


Found it. Ouch. The numbers are even worse than the eye test for cob. Y'all don't understand how much of an anchor he is....


____ with Coby on vs off (p36):
Lavine:
on- 27ppg @ 63%TS, +/- -7.2, ORTG 110, DRTG 119, NET -9.6
off- 32ppg @ 69%TS, +/- +7.8, ORTG 117, DRTG 105, NET +11.3

Lauri:
on- 20ppg @ 62%TS, +/- -11.7, ORTG 99, DRTG 115, NET -15.4
off- 31ppg @ 76%TS, +/- +9.0, ORTG 120, DRTG 108, NET +11.3

PWill:
on- 14ppg @ 57%TS, +/- -6.4, ORTG 107, DRTG 116, NET -8.4
off- 13ppg @ 54%TS, +/- +8.9, ORTG 113, DRTG 102, NET +10.3

WCJ:
on- 22ppg @ 58%TS, +/- -13.4, ORTG 108, DRTG 115, NET -6.9
off- 16ppg @ 68%TS, +/- -5.5, ORTG 107, DRTG 123, NET -15.3


yuck. This explains why Lavine's and Lauri's on off numbers are horribly bad even though they have been top of the league in elite volume scoring/efficiency. They are unfortunately grouped with Coby the majority of the time they are on the court. Otherwise we would be a +11.3 team with Lavine/Lauri and not Coby.

Also it explains the struggles with WCJ on the court. With WCJ and Coby on the court together, the offense is force fed through WCJ more and away from Lauri/Lavine (the less efficient option)

Found on NBA.com site: https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!?PlayerID=1628976&VsPlayerID=1629632&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&sort=PTS&dir=1


Image

Honestly it's not a surprise, and it matches the eye test. Coby's role should really be simplified as a catch and shoot gunner and preferably off the bench where he can be surrounded with playmakers. That's where he currently can provide the most value without hurting the team too much. Based on those numbers, all our starters are performing massively better with an actual point guard running the show who can also defend some.

It's really difficult to be good defensively when you're constantly putting your team at a disadvantage at the point of attack. It doesn't even require much from the other team, just a simple pick and roll action and we're already in trouble.

Those numbers are also why I'm not convinced that we need to spend a bunch of assets to get Lonzo Ball, since we may already have a playmaker/defender type PG on our roster who can knock down open shots efficiently on low volume and play effectively with Zach, Lauri, and PW (Sato, Temple, and Arch come to mind). They just have to play with the starters more while Coby is relegated to the bench. It's easier said than done, however, because I don't think the organization is ready to pull the plug on Coby's development this season. It does seem to me that we're swimming or sinking with Coby.
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#19 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:16 pm

FriedRise wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
chefo wrote:
Just eye-balling it, Lauri has spent the vast majority of his time playing with two or more of the "kids"--White and WCJ, and these lineups have been pretty abysmal no matter who else is in them, including Zach. The biggest tell is Lavine because his +/- is more volatile than GameStop stock during a short squeeze.


Found it. Ouch. The numbers are even worse than the eye test for cob. Y'all don't understand how much of an anchor he is....


____ with Coby on vs off (p36):
Lavine:
on- 27ppg @ 63%TS, +/- -7.2, ORTG 110, DRTG 119, NET -9.6
off- 32ppg @ 69%TS, +/- +7.8, ORTG 117, DRTG 105, NET +11.3

Lauri:
on- 20ppg @ 62%TS, +/- -11.7, ORTG 99, DRTG 115, NET -15.4
off- 31ppg @ 76%TS, +/- +9.0, ORTG 120, DRTG 108, NET +11.3

PWill:
on- 14ppg @ 57%TS, +/- -6.4, ORTG 107, DRTG 116, NET -8.4
off- 13ppg @ 54%TS, +/- +8.9, ORTG 113, DRTG 102, NET +10.3

WCJ:
on- 22ppg @ 58%TS, +/- -13.4, ORTG 108, DRTG 115, NET -6.9
off- 16ppg @ 68%TS, +/- -5.5, ORTG 107, DRTG 123, NET -15.3


yuck. This explains why Lavine's and Lauri's on off numbers are horribly bad even though they have been top of the league in elite volume scoring/efficiency. They are unfortunately grouped with Coby the majority of the time they are on the court. Otherwise we would be a +11.3 team with Lavine/Lauri and not Coby.

Also it explains the struggles with WCJ on the court. With WCJ and Coby on the court together, the offense is force fed through WCJ more and away from Lauri/Lavine (the less efficient option)

Found on NBA.com site: https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!?PlayerID=1628976&VsPlayerID=1629632&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&sort=PTS&dir=1


Image

Honestly it's not a surprise, and it matches the eye test. Coby's role should really be simplified as a catch and shoot gunner and preferably off the bench where he can be surrounded with playmakers. That's where he currently can provide the most value without hurting the team too much. Based on those numbers, all our starters are performing massively better with an actual point guard running the show who can also defend some.

It's really difficult to be good defensively when you're constantly putting your team at a disadvantage at the point of attack. It doesn't even require much from the other team, just a simple pick and roll action and we're already in trouble.

Those numbers are also why I'm not convinced that we need to spend a bunch of assets to get Lonzo Ball, since we may already have a playmaker/defender type PG on our roster who can knock down open shots efficiently on low volume and play effectively with Zach, Lauri, and PW (Sato, Temple, and Arch come to mind). They just have to play with the starters more while Coby is relegated to the bench. It's easier said than done, however, because I don't think the organization is ready to pull the plug on Coby's development this season. It does seem to me that we're swimming or sinking with Coby.


I also wouldn't spend massive assets for Lonzo but Lonzo would fit our "core" timeline age wise. He also would be a massive upgrade on defense compared to Coby while providing better playmaking and (so far) better 3 point shooting. He would also be a size advantage vs disadvantage at PG. That's all we need at the PG position with the composition of the rest of the team.
User avatar
PaKii94
RealGM
Posts: 10,474
And1: 6,546
Joined: Aug 22, 2013
     

Re: Bulls net ratings 

Post#20 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:29 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
chefo wrote:
coldfish wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/lineups/
Lineups

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2021/on-off/
Players

If you have watched the Bulls objectively, just about nothing here is surprising. Random observations:
- Wendell, Coby and Lauri have the worst net ratings in that order. Wendell and Coby in particular kill the team and anyone playing with them.
- All of the vets have the best net ratings. Surprising no one, Temple and Young are the best player pair followed by Zach and Young.
- Zach is in all of the best 5 man units along with Young.
- Lauri and Wendell aren't in any good groupings.
- PW isn't hurting the team

To a large degree, BD's set rotation has skewed things a little but it has clearly shown just how bad the "core" is when it plays together.

I'm not sure how much development time the team is going to give to certain players but its pretty clear that there is a problem with the youngsters. The vets badly outplay them.


Just eye-balling it, Lauri has spent the vast majority of his time playing with two or more of the "kids"--White and WCJ, and these lineups have been pretty abysmal no matter who else is in them, including Zach. The biggest tell is Lavine because his +/- is more volatile than GameStop stock during a short squeeze.


Found it. Ouch. The numbers are even worse than the eye test for cob. Y'all don't understand how much of an anchor he is....


____ with Coby on vs off (p36):
Lavine:
on- 27ppg @ 63%TS, +/- -7.2, USG 28.7, ORTG 110, DRTG 119, NET -9.6
off- 32ppg @ 69%TS, +/- +7.8, USG 31.5, ORTG 117, DRTG 105, NET +11.3

Lauri:
on- 20ppg @ 62%TS, +/- -11.7, USG 20.9, ORTG 99, DRTG 115, NET -15.4
off- 31ppg @ 76%TS, +/- +9.0, USG 25.5, ORTG 120, DRTG 108, NET +11.3

PWill:
on- 14ppg @ 57%TS, +/- -6.4, USG 16.6, ORTG 107, DRTG 116, NET -8.4
off- 13ppg @ 54%TS, +/- +8.9, USG 16.3, ORTG 113, DRTG 102, NET +10.3

WCJ:
on- 22ppg @ 58%TS, +/- -13.4, USG 19.4, ORTG 108, DRTG 115, NET -6.9
off- 16ppg @ 68%TS, +/- -5.5, USG 18.8, ORTG 107, DRTG 123, NET -15.3


yuck. This explains why Lavine's and Lauri's on off numbers are horribly bad even though they have been top of the league in elite volume scoring/efficiency. They are unfortunately grouped with Coby the majority of the time they are on the court. Otherwise we would be a +11.3 team with Lavine/Lauri and not Coby.

Also it explains the struggles with WCJ on the court. With WCJ and Coby on the court together, the offense is force fed through WCJ more and away from Lauri/Lavine (the less efficient option)

Found on NBA.com site: https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!?PlayerID=1628976&VsPlayerID=1629632&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&sort=PTS&dir=1



Two more interesting cutoff points (smaller sample size):
WCJ (after he started looking like he knew how to ball again):
on- 16.4ppg @ 58%TS, +/- -3.9, USG 20, ORTG 110, DRTG 114, NET -4.0
off- 31ppg @ 74%TS, +/- +10, USG 26, ORTG 123, DRTG 114, NET +9.4

^After WCJ realized he knew how to play ball his overall impact recovered pretty well. And yet again we see the stark negative that Coby is.

Lauri (after returning from covid break):
on- 21ppg @ 61%TS, +/- -9.8, USG 22, ORTG 101, DRTG 115, NET -13.6
off- 29ppg @ 77%TS, +/- +13.8, USG 22, ORTG 129, DRTG 113, NET +16.3

Even more stark difference between the numbers...

Return to Chicago Bulls