Bulls net ratings

[PaKii94]

Looking at the on/off data since Lauri has been out-

Anchor Rankings:
1) WCJ
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2) PWill
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3)Coby

Coby has improved greatly in his impact. It's still not great but going from one of the worst in the league to a slight positive is a big improvement. Seems like playing off ball/scorer is his niche right now. He still isn't a PG but if he's not on ball as much I don't think it impacts the team as negatively anymore. He's still not the greatest fit next to lavine because of the skillset overlap.

The anchor now is officially WCJ. The hope was he would provide thad like offense and fundemental defense. Unfortunately he's providing neither right now. The options behind him (gafford/kornet/felicio) aren't much better so we still have to play him... however, now that Kornet is hitting a few shots, he is now more impactful than wcj

Second on the anchor rankings is PWill. I like PWill but he is a rook. That's to be expected. He's not providing that much offense and does have his lapses on defense. This accumulates to a slight negative impact. Add in the compounding effect of playing next to WCJ (and Coby) and he is a strong negative. However, I think this is more of him "going along for the ride" vs actively impacting the game negatively.

Lavine's impact is also reduced in recent games. I think it's because teams are learning how to defend him (send doubles after him to make him give up the ball and have Coby/PWill/WCJ generate a play).

If you take out Pwill/WCJ the team is a strong positive with lavine and mostly a positive with Coby.

I think it's pretty clear center is the position of need. Coby was playing out of position. WCJ is playing in his optimal spot and underperforming. PWill the rook gets a pass.

It's like the team is right there to being really good and yet so far from it

[PaKii94]

The last 4 games since the starting lineup was changed Lavine's net rating overall has been HUGE. His +/- numbers have finally turned around.

The team with Lavine on the floor: +18.9
The team with Lavine off the floor: -20.4
Net rating: +39.3

A +39 is HUGE.

Our polarizing softy big is second:
The team with Lauri on the floor: +11.5
The team with Lauri off the floor: -1.3
Net rating: +12.8

Thad is distant third:
The team with Thad on the floor: +8.4
The team with Thad off the floor: +5.6
Net rating: +2.8

Sato net rating: +2.0
Coby net rating: +1.6
WCJ net rating: +0.8

PWill net rating: -7.3 ouch

OPJ/Denzel/arch are all huge negatives

[coldfish]

The last 4 games since the starting lineup was changed Lavine's net rating overall has been HUGE. His +/- numbers have finally turned around.

The team with Lavine on the floor: +18.9
The team with Lavine off the floor: -20.4
Net rating: +39.3

A +39 is HUGE.

Our polarizing softy big is second:
The team with Lauri on the floor: +11.5
The team with Lauri off the floor: -1.3
Net rating: +12.8

Thad is distant third:
The team with Thad on the floor: +8.4
The team with Thad off the floor: +5.6
Net rating: +2.8

Sato net rating: +2.0
Coby net rating: +1.6
WCJ net rating: +0.8

PWill net rating: -7.3 ouch

OPJ/Denzel/arch are all huge negatives

The lineup change has really exposed Pat in some ways. The Bulls really take off every game when Otto comes in for Pat.

And yeah, its also made Lavine's contribution really clear. By putting the vets with Coby and Wendell while Lavine sits, the vets have seen their net rating tank while Lavine has skyrocketed.

[Ice Man]

Only 4 games since the lineup change, but so far the numbers support the following narrative -

1) Zach had mediocre on/off numbers
2) The popular explanation was that he's not the kind of player who makes his teammates good
3) But actually, it seems that he was rescuing his teammates, who are terrible without him

As starters go, Wendell, Lauri, PWill, and Coby look to have been about the weakest supporting cast in the NBA. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since all four are on rookie contracts.

[Hugi Mancura]

Only 4 games since the lineup change, but so far the numbers support the following narrative -

1) Zach had mediocre on/off numbers
2) The popular explanation was that he's not the kind of player who makes his teammates good
3) But actually, it seems that he was rescuing his teammates, who are terrible without him

As starters go, Wendell, Lauri, PWill, and Coby look to have been about the weakest supporting cast in the NBA. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since all four are on rookie contracts.

Not complete true.

Young ones (Coby, PWill, Lauri and WCJ) are all about -5 to -6 with Lavine, but all, except WCJ who is -4, are net positive without Lavine. Problem was starting those 5 together, because there was just too many weak defenders (Lavine included) and over lapping skills on offense. There wasn't a good balance of skills. Everybody lost in that deal, so really didn't understand why they kept doing it.

Not attacking against Lavine, just saying he has weaknesses in his game, and none of the young ones can cover for him. Same way Lauri, Coby, Pwill and WCJ all have weaknesses in their game and at least on defense none of the these 5 players could cover for them. Adding vets of these lineups (even if meant removing Lavine) you added players who had the skill to cover those mistakes and thus everyone were suddenly better (well, not really, but team didn't suffer as much).

[WindyCityBorn]

Only 4 games since the lineup change, but so far the numbers support the following narrative -

1) Zach had mediocre on/off numbers
2) The popular explanation was that he's not the kind of player who makes his teammates good
3) But actually, it seems that he was rescuing his teammates, who are terrible without him

As starters go, Wendell, Lauri, PWill, and Coby look to have been about the weakest supporting cast in the NBA. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since all four are on rookie contracts.

Not complete true.

Young ones (Coby, PWill, Lauri and WCJ) are all about -5 to -6 with Lavine, but all, except WCJ who is -4, are net positive without Lavine. Problem was starting those 5 together, because there was just too many weak defenders (Lavine included) and over lapping skills on offense. There wasn't a good balance of skills. Everybody lost in that deal, so really didn't understand why they kept doing it.

Not attacking against Lavine, just saying he has weaknesses in his game, and none of the young ones can cover for him. Same way Lauri, Coby, Pwill and WCJ all have weaknesses in their game and at least on defense none of the these 5 players could cover for them. Adding vets of these lineups (even if meant removing Lavine) you added players who had the skill to cover those mistakes and thus everyone were suddenly better (well, not really, but team didn't suffer as much).

What I see. We build a lead and then pray the young sucky guys like Coby and Carter don’t blow the lead before Zach comes back in with 7 minutes left. And if Coby is the lead guard it doesn’t matter who else is out there. We are gonna struggle.

[Ice Man]

Not attacking against Lavine, just saying he has weaknesses in his game, and none of the young ones can cover for him. Same way Lauri, Coby, Pwill and WCJ all have weaknesses in their game and at least on defense none of the these 5 players could cover for them.

While it's true that Zach's game has some noticeable flaws, he doesn't belong on a list with those other four.

[Risk Addict]

I’m ready for AK to rebuild the team. I’ve seen what I’ve needed to see. Some guys underperformed due to coaching last year (young, Lavine). Some just aren’t very good or well balanced enough to have a good impact. I’d be psyched if white and carter were moved for something of value

[Hugi Mancura]

Not attacking against Lavine, just saying he has weaknesses in his game, and none of the young ones can cover for him. Same way Lauri, Coby, Pwill and WCJ all have weaknesses in their game and at least on defense none of the these 5 players could cover for them.

While it's true that Zach's game has some noticeable flaws, he doesn't belong on a list with those other four.

On defense he does. Zach is bad help/team defender, so is PWill and Lauri. Coby is slightly better help defender, but even he is below average and only maybe WCJ is average help/team defender. Together they are walking bucket on defense.

If you remove any of those two (including Lavine) and replace them any pairing form trio Temple, Sato and Thad, and all these players are suddenly net positive. Except WCJ who really doesn't fit next to Thad, because both are bad shooters and he is only net negative with pairing of Sato and Thad. This is because all these three are good team defenders, so they cover the young players mistakes (including Lavine's) on defense.

Original message claimed that because Lavine is net positive when he is playing with two vets, he shouldn't be count as a reason why young starting 5 sucked. I just trying to show that even if the claim that these younger players pulled Lavine down in the starting 5 is true. The original claim that Lavine was trying to pull them up is not true either, he was there with them pulling whole starting 5 down.

Lavine have higher positive impact than any of these, but his weakness really also harmed that starting 5 more than his offense helped them. This really isn't an attack against Lavine (or any of the 5 players). This is more an attack towards coaching staff, why the h*ll you keep that unit together, even if people who knows nothing about basketball see's that the unit doesn't work. When creating a playing unit fit really matters. You just can't put 5 Shaq's in there and expect them to win every game, even though individually Shaq is damn good player.

[Jimako10]

Donovan has really has used a whole bunch of lineup combos just by looking at the list. The lineup with the most minutes only has played 137 minutes, which has got to be near the bottom of the league when it comes to usage of your top lineup.

The current starting lineup of Sato/Lavine/PWill/Lauri/Thad has played 75 minutes and is a +12.5. Nothing really comes close except when you replace Lauri with Temple, and that lineup is a whopping +30.2, but only with 42 minutes. The fact that Donovan stuck with Coby/WCJ for so long really tells me that this was an evaluation/developmental year above all. If he wanted to win, he could have easily replaced them long ago when it was obvious to everyone that it wasn't working.

My favorite LOL lineup.....Coby/Lavine/PWill/Lauri/Gafford for a disastrous -42.7 in 51 minutes (!). I can't believe it took 51 minutes for Donovan to realize how godawful that lineup was.

[Ice Man]

My favorite LOL lineup.....Coby/Lavine/PWill/Lauri/Gafford for a disastrous -42.7 in 51 minutes (!). I can't believe it took 51 minutes for Donovan to realize how godawful that lineup was.

The true LOL is that was our starting lineup while missing only one player. The first four guys were regular starters, and Gafford was the first man up behind Carter. It was completely not a strange lineup, by how Donovan had defined the team.

[BeKuK]

The team with Lavine on the floor: +18.9
The team with Lavine off the floor: -20.4
Net rating: +39.3

A +39 is HUGE.

Wow......just wow.

[chefo]

I looked at the number of touches this month--a couple of interesting tidbits:

Zach is down from 70+ to 65

Coby is down from 70+ to 56 (from first option to second option; in his last 8, he has an O-rating of 89(!) and a D-rating of 111, for a cool -22; confirmed by the eye-test; he's been a Hindenburg-level disaster post All-star break)

Lauri is down from 44 to 38 (which is well into 4th option territory)

Thad is higher at around 60... despite playing 25 min/game -- when he's in the game, Thad's getting first option-touches.

Sato went from low 40s to 55 (and averaging 10&7 as a 30 min starter and a +13 net rating)

Wendell is down by 10 to low 40s (third option touches, down from second option touches; proportionate to his decreased playing time)

Pat is still in the high 20s, not much change

In other words--our younglings got a one-spot demotion in touches, but are still getting a ton of opportunities, just not as many as before. Our younglings also did not handle the demotion well and it seems that their production dropped more than the decrease in touches, especially Coby.

As I mentioned above, Coby has been worst-player in the NBA-level bad in March... but still gets 2nd option touches overall, and 1st option touches when he's in the game. The Bulls would have been better off if they just benched him. He sticks out like a sore thumb in terms of how much he's regressed.

Lauri needs to get more aggressive--it's difficult to score like a second option on 44 touches; it's impossible on 15% fewer touches / game. Also did not handle fewer touches well--he's only scored 15/game in March, which is Boylen-level Lauri.

The eye-test that Zach is less involved is also true--he's getting almost 10% fewer touches / game this month.

[PaKii94]

The last 4 games since the starting lineup was changed Lavine's net rating overall has been HUGE. His +/- numbers have finally turned around.

The team with Lavine on the floor: +18.9
The team with Lavine off the floor: -20.4
Net rating: +39.3

A +39 is HUGE.

Our polarizing softy big is second:
The team with Lauri on the floor: +11.5
The team with Lauri off the floor: -1.3
Net rating: +12.8

Thad is distant third:
The team with Thad on the floor: +8.4
The team with Thad off the floor: +5.6
Net rating: +2.8

Sato net rating: +2.0
Coby net rating: +1.6
WCJ net rating: +0.8

PWill net rating: -7.3 ouch

OPJ/Denzel/arch are all huge negatives

BD said he looks at the analytics and evaluates the team in 10 game chunks.

It's been 9 games since lauri was benched. Here is the minute distribution and net ratings since then. I'll let you guys interpret them. This should be interesting:

[Neonblazer]

So vucevic and pwill have the worst effect on the team and Thaddeus and Troy Brown has the best. Interesting.

Edited. because I looked only 9 games for some reason.

[ZOMG]

Watch this thread get buried.

[PaKii94]

Watch this thread get buried.

Oh it already has. People pass it off as "small sample size" but won't acknowledge it's the same trend over the season and similar trends in seasons prior