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RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again!!

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RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again!! 

Post#1 » by MalagaBulls » Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:05 pm

Wow, this would be absolutely massive. Imagine now with a 24B TV deal and that triples to 75B over 9 years. You could have 7-8B a year revenue. The CAP could hit 150-200M by my approximation! Who knows though, fun to think about it.

Read on Twitter


https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/261965/NBA-Seeking-$75-Billion-Over-Nine-Years-With-Next-TV-Deals

The NBA could get $70.2 billion over nine years in its next television contract, according to one person familiar with sports media deals.

According to the early thinking within league circles, the NBA will seek $75 billion, which would be more than an increase of 213 percent from its current deal of $24 billion.

The NBA is currently making $2.6 billion per year in its current agreement with Turner Sports and ESPN.

At $7 billion to $8 billion per season, the league would close the gap with the NFL's new $10 billion per year average.

“I think everyone expects that so long as the public is demonstrating through ratings that they are watching the NBA, you can probably expect increases there as well,” said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson. “I would think the NBA is going to look for significant increases.”

On a media call last week discussing the NFL’s new rights, ESPN President Jimmy Pitaro said the network is “very pleased” with the NBA’s partnership and “how those games have performed.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#2 » by League Circles » Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:14 pm

Hopefully much of the increased revenue sought will come from international sources, because I know I already canceled my youtubeTV rather than pay what they want. As of now the barrier to entry to watch nba games is basically like $500 other than the random ABC game.

Now obviously you get a lot of other (garbage) entertainment with that money via cable or streaming package or whatever, but that's the barrier to entry. If they try to raise that up much they might actually see revenue go down.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#3 » by FriedRise » Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:30 pm

At 200M cap, these 20M deals we're talking about for Lonzo or Lauri will look like the MLE. Heck, those might be the new MLE numbers.

Likewise, extending Zach to the 40M max per will be just about equivalent to the value deal he's currently on now. It'd be kinda like when we offered Jimmy the max extension right before the cap exploded. Obviously, I'm saying it's a no brainer.

It might be wise for us to get ahead of all that, especially this offseason where half our roster are off the books. If there's a free agent that you want, don't be afraid to offer them significant $$ because that number will look laughably tiny when the cap explodes.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#4 » by chefo » Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:33 pm

I personally think that's wishful thinking--cable (ESPN, TNT, ABC) has been bleeding revenues like crazy for several years running. The execs who sign a 200% increase in spend for a sport that has seen ratings drop materially over said time frame is either really bad at math or high on something very potent.

Online platforms are kicking cable's posterior and maybe that's a last-minute hail-marry to reverse that, but I just can't fathom how they got to these numbers. Maybe there's something I'm missing?
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#5 » by CaPiTanAK » Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:08 pm

FriedRise wrote:At 200M cap, these 20M deals we're talking about for Lonzo or Lauri will look like the MLE. Heck, those might be the new MLE numbers.

Likewise, extending Zach to the 40M max per will be just about equivalent to the value deal he's currently on now. It'd be kinda like when we offered Jimmy the max extension right before the cap exploded. Obviously, I'm saying it's a no brainer.

It might be wise for us to get ahead of all that, especially this offseason where half our roster are off the books. If there's a free agent that you want, don't be afraid to offer them significant $$ because that number will look laughably tiny when the cap explodes.


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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#6 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:44 pm

League Circles wrote:Hopefully much of the increased revenue sought will come from international sources, because I know I already canceled my youtubeTV rather than pay what they want. As of now the barrier to entry to watch nba games is basically like $500 other than the random ABC game.

Now obviously you get a lot of other (garbage) entertainment with that money via cable or streaming package or whatever, but that's the barrier to entry. If they try to raise that up much they might actually see revenue go down.


You seem to be conflating two things the NBA tripling their rate won't change the barrier to entry because 99% of that barrier to entry is for things you don't want. This is also only for national packages not local ones (though those may rise as well, they're 30 different negotiations vs one league wide one).

Completely understand if you don't want to spend $500 a year if the only live TV you are watching is the NBA. I'm not that far off of that myself, though I do pay youtube TV. Granted, you can suspend your membership for months the league isn't in service if you want to. I watch enough stuff that I find it worth it to still keep live TV, but I've often thought about ditching it, and the NBA is the major thing pushing me over the edge.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#7 » by League Circles » Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:01 pm

dougthonus wrote:
League Circles wrote:Hopefully much of the increased revenue sought will come from international sources, because I know I already canceled my youtubeTV rather than pay what they want. As of now the barrier to entry to watch nba games is basically like $500 other than the random ABC game.

Now obviously you get a lot of other (garbage) entertainment with that money via cable or streaming package or whatever, but that's the barrier to entry. If they try to raise that up much they might actually see revenue go down.


You seem to be conflating two things the NBA tripling their rate won't change the barrier to entry because 99% of that barrier to entry is for things you don't want. This is also only for national packages not local ones (though those may rise as well, they're 30 different negotiations vs one league wide one).

Completely understand if you don't want to spend $500 a year if the only live TV you are watching is the NBA. I'm not that far off of that myself, though I do pay youtube TV. Granted, you can suspend your membership for months the league isn't in service if you want to. I watch enough stuff that I find it worth it to still keep live TV, but I've often thought about ditching it, and the NBA is the major thing pushing me over the edge.

I'd actually guess the piece of the pie is way over 1% for the nba in terms of broadcast revenue for cable and streaming packages. I'd actually guess espn/tnt might be perhaps in the 20-40% range of revenue for those packages, and of that 20-40%, at least a quarter is probably NBA.

The last few years I've just subscribed to youtubeTV, SlingTV, or Playstation Vue for parts or all of the nba season and turned it off otherwise. If I recall the YoutubeTV package that let's you watch the Bulls is now like $70/month, so with a roughly 7 month season generally, you'd be looking at $500 to watch the season.

For me it is in fact the only live TV I really want to pay to watch. Barrier to entry could go up or down though easily. Espn/tnt may be offering that much to secure a la carte streaming rights worldwide, and start offering league pass broadband without local blackouts for less than the $500/year current barrier to entry. Or it could be the same old system but cable rates go up because espn/tnt need to pay that much more.

Bottom line, $500/year is too much for me when the Bulls aren't any good. If they're a good playoff team again I could see maybe paying $300/year or something to watch all games.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#8 » by League Circles » Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:19 pm

No offense to anyone but could anyone tell me why the "CAP" in "salary cap" is so often written in all capital letters by posters?
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#9 » by AshyLarrysDiaper » Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:22 pm

Do we, a team with a relatively clean cap sheet, want the cap to explode?
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#10 » by dougthonus » Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:55 pm

League Circles wrote:I'd actually guess the piece of the pie is way over 1% for the nba in terms of broadcast revenue for cable and streaming packages. I'd actually guess espn/tnt might be perhaps in the 20-40% range of revenue for those packages, and of that 20-40%, at least a quarter is probably NBA.


You can buy ESPN directly for $5 and get ABC over the air, which just leaves you without TNT, but the key for you most likely is not the national games, it's getting access to NBC Sports Chicago. It'd be interesting if NBC Sports offered an ala carte option for the majority of games.

One thing you can do with youtube TV is just find 2 friends, agree that none of you will have more than 1 TV going at a time, and split the bill, and now you are paying $20 a month.

Bottom line, $500/year is too much for me when the Bulls aren't any good. If they're a good playoff team again I could see maybe paying $300/year or something to watch all games.


Always good for everyone to set their value of what they will pay for something.
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Re: RealGM WT & JYoung Twitter: TV revenues could triple to 75B in next TV rights contract, hopefully CAP explodes again 

Post#11 » by thebizkit » Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:37 pm

Whoever pays that price tag will almost certainly be able to broadcast every single game. No way this is a game of the week situation.

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