Nikola Vučević discussion thread

[dougthonus]

Alright, I think I've seen enough so I'm just gonna say it: this guy is white DeMarcus Cousins.

Not exactly, of course. He has some slightly different negative/positive traits. He has fewer turnovers, but even worse defense. He doesn't ever pout, but he also doesn't ever bring any intensity. Ultimately, the end result is the same - he puts up similar box score impact (very, very high) with similar W/L column impact (very, very low).

So why is this? Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

1. The bottom tier defense. He's not "ok," he's not "passable," he is flat out awful. If you look at the league's starting centers, I honestly cannot see a worse defending first choice starting center in the league. At best, he's on a similar level as a Bryant/Wood/Towns type. But his mobility and explosiveness is so poor that I still say he's even worse than them.

2. He was billed as some excellent passer with amazing vision who could potentially be a poor man's Jokic - nope. His passing is basically just Satoransky-ish. He is able to have such a good assist:turnover ratio because he's incredibly risk averse, which leads to low turnover numbers, but also means he is not gonna be dishing out dimes like some point center. Thadgic is easily a better passer IMO.

3. He doesn't drive. No, not literally never. But it is simply not a big part of his game. He, like Lauri, is just an opportunistic driver, not a forceful one. Combined with his good, but hardly special post ability, it means he doesn't warp defenses at all. You don't have to double this guy, and he doesn't create many defensive collapses, as he simply doesn't force the issue enough.

People say I'm just a hater, well I tried. I really tried to see something in his game to make me think we're not just seeing the beginning of another unsuccessful "plan" yet again. Well after these 15 games and everything I've read from Orlando fans who watched him for almost a decade, I'm sorry. This trade was a total dud and it was incredibly predictable.

My gut reaction to this trade when it was made was "oh my god, that is f-----g awful. Being in a very small minority in that view, I then spent time checking myself and wondering if I was just wrong.

The more time has gone by, the more I feel stupid for doubting my first blush opinion.

[E-DC]

Alright, I think I've seen enough so I'm just gonna say it: this guy is white DeMarcus Cousins.

Not exactly, of course. He has some slightly different negative/positive traits. He has fewer turnovers, but even worse defense. He doesn't ever pout, but he also doesn't ever bring any intensity. Ultimately, the end result is the same - he puts up similar box score impact (very, very high) with similar W/L column impact (very, very low).

So why is this? Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

1. The bottom tier defense. He's not "ok," he's not "passable," he is flat out awful. If you look at the league's starting centers, I honestly cannot see a worse defending first choice starting center in the league. At best, he's on a similar level as a Bryant/Wood/Towns type. But his mobility and explosiveness is so poor that I still say he's even worse than them.

2. He was billed as some excellent passer with amazing vision who could potentially be a poor man's Jokic - nope. His passing is basically just Satoransky-ish. He is able to have such a good assist:turnover ratio because he's incredibly risk averse, which leads to low turnover numbers, but also means he is not gonna be dishing out dimes like some point center. Thadgic is easily a better passer IMO.

3. He doesn't drive. No, not literally never. But it is simply not a big part of his game. He, like Lauri, is just an opportunistic driver, not a forceful one. Combined with his good, but hardly special post ability, it means he doesn't warp defenses at all. You don't have to double this guy, and he doesn't create many defensive collapses, as he simply doesn't force the issue enough.

People say I'm just a hater, well I tried. I really tried to see something in his game to make me think we're not just seeing the beginning of another unsuccessful "plan" yet again. Well after these 15 games and everything I've read from Orlando fans who watched him for almost a decade, I'm sorry. This trade was a total dud and it was incredibly predictable.

My gut reaction to this trade when it was made was "oh my god, that is f-----g awful. Being in a very small minority in that view, I then spent time checking myself and wondering if I was just wrong.

The more time has gone by, the more I feel stupid for doubting my first blush opinion.

I was definitely one who was bullish on the trade at first, but after looking at his numbers, the non-existent free throws should have been a dead give away that he's not going to move the needle. And his defense is bad. I can't wrap my head around what AK and Donovan are trying to do.

[Leslie Forman]

I think pre-injury Cousins is a solid comparison. But Cousins with a much better locker-room attitude and a better contract (front-loaded $22m vs Cousins' max) is a good player in my book.

Hey, I didn't say he was a bad player. In a vacuum, he's a perfectly good one, just like Boogie was. In the modern NBA, however, he's ultimately a guy who it looks like you can't build a title contender around unless you literally surround him with 4 better players…just like Boogie.

And his contract isn't actually as good as it looks on the surface, because Aminu's contract was attached to him, like a remora. So the next two years are more like a 2/$56mil contract. And frankly he does not look like a player worth anywhere near that much. I really could not care less about his 25/10s or "All-Star" status.

That Kings era made notoriously bad decisions over and over again

Frankly, it looks like Karnisovas is also making bad decisions and I would say it's very likely he makes more with how desperate for immediate competitiveness it appears he is.

People really wanna believe this is not the Kings in Chicago, but he has essentially gone all in on a DeMarcus Cousins/Kevin Martin combo. It's the most Sacramento Kingsiest of Sacramento Kings things you could possibly do.

[Leslie Forman]

My gut reaction to this trade when it was made was "oh my god, that is f-----g awful. Being in a very small minority in that view, I then spent time checking myself and wondering if I was just wrong.

The more time has gone by, the more I feel stupid for doubting my first blush opinion.

I really thought this dude was a good hire. I remember you being super skeptical with his inaction over the offseason but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. I liked the things he was saying. I was never a big Donovan guy but I liked the intent.

You were right. This guy looks like a bad hire right now. This guy isn't looking like the franchise's Theo Epstein - he's looking a lot more like their Ryan Pace.

Here's a hypothetical question - if you were running the franchise would you just fire this guy and move on from him immediately this summer? The Vuc trade was so, sooooo predictably awful that it was a legitimately Trubisky-level mistake IMO.

Obviously he's not going anywhere and will have at least a couple more years to try and fix this. But do you even have any faith in him to do that? I am really struggling to find it.

[ZOMG]

Vuc isn't nearly as bad on D as he's looked as a Bull. The last 4-5 years, the Magic were mediocre to pretty good on D with him playing heavy minutes. He can be hidden on D, but you need good defenders around him like Isaac. He does certain things well--he eats up space, boxes out well and boards well. He's a 7 foot Boozer on D in a sense--not good, by any stretch, but passable if he plays on a team that's not a leaking boat at every other position as well.

I think that's right. The Bulls had an elite defense in the 2011 and 2012 season while starting Boozer. The rest of the defenders covered for Carlos. He was asked to do what he could succeed at, which was to defend 1v1 inside and use his strength to get defensive rebounds. He wasn't asked to switch onto guards, get out onto the perimeter, or excel at help defense. Same for Vuce. At least in theory, he could be part of a strong defense.

That's being way too kind and I have no idea what you're basing it on. Vuc's supposed Boozer-like ability to "defend 1v1 inside" is useless because teams do not attack him that way. Why would they play right into the hands of a guy who wants to stay in the hole all the time?

Instead, he's mercilessly being targeted in pick and rolls far from the basket. When he drops, it's almost an automatic alley-oop dunk on his head, as in the Cavs game. When he switches, he ends up looking like statue with people blowing by him left and right.

In the modern game, a guy like Vuc is pretty much helpless defensively. There's no way around it. Overall, he's able to survive because of his offense, but as Hugi Mancura outlined above, he's drastically overrated.

[ZOMG]

I think pre-injury Cousins is a solid comparison. But Cousins with a much better locker-room attitude and a better contract (front-loaded $22m vs Cousins' max) is a good player in my book.

Hey, I didn't say he was a bad player. In a vacuum, he's a perfectly good one, just like Boogie was. In the modern NBA, however, he's ultimately a guy who it looks like you can't build a title contender around unless you literally surround him with 4 better players…just like Boogie.

And his contract isn't actually as good as it looks on the surface, because Aminu's contract was attached to him, like a remora. So the next two years are more like a 2/$56mil contract. And frankly he does not look like a player worth anywhere near that much. I really could not care less about his 25/10s or "All-Star" status.

That Kings era made notoriously bad decisions over and over again

Frankly, it looks like Karnisovas is also making bad decisions and I would say it's very likely he makes more with how desperate for immediate competitiveness it appears he is.

People really wanna believe this is not the Kings in Chicago, but he has essentially gone all in on a DeMarcus Cousins/Kevin Martin combo. It's the most Sacramento Kingsiest of Sacramento Kings things you could possibly do.

A "remora contract". That's brilliant. Gonna have to start using that.

[dougthonus]

I really thought this dude was a good hire. I remember you being super skeptical with his inaction over the offseason but I gave him the benefit of the doubt. I liked the things he was saying. I was never a big Donovan guy but I liked the intent.

You were right. This guy looks like a bad hire right now. This guy isn't looking like the franchise's Theo Epstein - he's looking a lot more like their Ryan Pace.

Here's a hypothetical question - if you were running the franchise would you just fire this guy and move on from him immediately this summer? The Vuc trade was so, sooooo predictably awful that it was a legitimately Trubisky-level mistake IMO.

Obviously he's not going anywhere and will have at least a couple more years to try and fix this. But do you even have any faith in him to do that? I am really struggling to find it.

My off the cuff guess was that what he sold to ownership was:
1: I will get you back to the playoffs and stop "rebuilding"
2: We will take it from there

In that sense, I think he will do what they hired him to do. These moves are geared towards creating some playoff experiences with low ceiling, but people seem to always have an opinion that the "low ceiling" part can be figured out later. Most of the time it can't.

So I doubt management sees it as a problem and probably was actively looking for someone to do something like he's done.

[Leslie Forman]

So I doubt management sees it as a problem and probably was actively looking for someone to do something like he's done.

Oh no doubt. But the execution is clearly awful. It appears he is just making totally ad hoc decisions based on whatever is available on the market at the time. If he's not, and genuinely was wanting to make a trade for Vuc back in the fall but got rebuffed by Orlando, that is even more damning.

So how much more time do you give this guy before he just completely depletes your warchest on the path to an eighth seed and has you locked in with Zach LaVine on a $200mil contract?

I just have a really, really bad feeling he does something idiotic like throw $100mil to Dennis Schroder this summer.

[dougthonus]

So I doubt management sees it as a problem and probably was actively looking for someone to do something like he's done.

Oh no doubt. But the execution is clearly awful. It appears he is just making totally ad hoc decisions based on whatever is available on the market at the time. If he's not, and genuinely was wanting to make a trade for Vuc back in the fall but got rebuffed by Orlando, that is even more damning.

So how much more time do you give this guy before he just completely depletes your warchest on the path to an eighth seed and has you locked in with Zach LaVine on a $200mil contract?

I just have a really, really bad feeling he does something idiotic like throw $100mil to Dennis Schroder this summer.

I agree on the last point, I think that's definitely a legit possibility.

In terms of swapping them, it's sort of a shoulder shrug for me. I assume that in large part this is the direction ownership is choosing to go and that they are working in tandem on these moves. If I were ownership, I would have never let this plan come into place in the first place and either they wouldn't make the same move because I wouldn't pressure them in the same way or I would have never hired them in the first place.

It's possible that they wildly overrated Vucevic, but my guess is they said were looking for a win now move and this was the best one available so they took it because ownership wanted that direction.

Either way, I guess it depends on the internal conversation and expectations that were discussed. If they thought this move vaults them to the 2nd round or ECF like any posters here also seem to think, then I would probably have said no thanks, your basketball acumen isn't where it needs to be and looked to bring in someone else.

[MrSparkle]

So I doubt management sees it as a problem and probably was actively looking for someone to do something like he's done.

Oh no doubt. But the execution is clearly awful. It appears he is just making totally ad hoc decisions based on whatever is available on the market at the time. If he's not, and genuinely was wanting to make a trade for Vuc back in the fall but got rebuffed by Orlando, that is even more damning.

So how much more time do you give this guy before he just completely depletes your warchest on the path to an eighth seed and has you locked in with Zach LaVine on a $200mil contract?

I just have a really, really bad feeling he does something idiotic like throw $100mil to Dennis Schroder this summer.

Well Les... that scenario is actually a good case. Bulls need a competent starting PG, and the two visible options are Lonzo or Schroder... the salary cap ought to see another spike after this whole COVID thing subsides, and the current projection is about $120m by 2023 (I doubt it stays that low, if stadiums are cleared for full capacity by next season), so the back-end of a $90-100m deal would be pretty manageable, so long he proves capable of starting with a 0.5-1 VORP... which is average performance for a 1/2 max vet playing 3rd fiddle. Not sure they're going for a slam dunk.

Problem is we're not the only buyers this summer. OKC: Long-term tank, Lonzo seems like decent gamble with a wild 90/3 player option. NYK: Thibs wants to overpay for a PG. NOP: might just match Lonzo if there's no enticing enough offer. LAL: might increase their offer if an upgrade doesn't seem viable.

Bulls have get it done with a S&T using Thad/Sato/Aminu and some menial assets. If they create cap and burn it all on Schroder or Lonzo while waiving multiple rotation players, then yes - that is a horrible scenario. I doubt it happens unless a S&T is worked.

Somebody enlighten me, but can't Theis be S&T'd as well? We have his bird rights. Wouldn't he a perfect candidate for playoff teams who'll want a scrappy starting C with a 3-ball? Just seems like this will be the path to building the roster, not outright UFA signings or RFA offers. Of course S&Ts are not easy to perform, but we seem to have the type of players who would get it done.

[wolffy]

Vuc is still one of the best centers in the league. This team has terrible defenders at almost every level, that much is true. But i think an upgrade or two defensively will make a world of difference.

[Leslie Forman]

Well Les... that scenario is actually a good case. Bulls need a competent starting PG, and the two visible options are Lonzo or Schroder... the salary cap ought to see another spike after this whole COVID thing subsides, and the current projection is about $120m by 2023 (I doubt it stays that low, if stadiums are cleared for full capacity by next season), so the back-end of a $90-100m deal would be pretty manageable, so long he proves capable of starting with a 0.5-1 VORP... which is average performance for a 1/2 max vet playing 3rd fiddle. Not sure they're going for a slam dunk.

[kingkirk]

Alright, I think I've seen enough so I'm just gonna say it: this guy is white DeMarcus Cousins.

Not exactly, of course. He has some slightly different negative/positive traits. He has fewer turnovers, but even worse defense. He doesn't ever pout, but he also doesn't ever bring any intensity. Ultimately, the end result is the same - he puts up similar box score impact (very, very high) with similar W/L column impact (very, very low).

So why is this? Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

1. The bottom tier defense. He's not "ok," he's not "passable," he is flat out awful. If you look at the league's starting centers, I honestly cannot see a worse defending first choice starting center in the league. At best, he's on a similar level as a Bryant/Wood/Towns type. But his mobility and explosiveness is so poor that I still say he's even worse than them.

2. He was billed as some excellent passer with amazing vision who could potentially be a poor man's Jokic - nope. His passing is basically just Satoransky-ish. He is able to have such a good assist:turnover ratio because he's incredibly risk averse, which leads to low turnover numbers, but also means he is not gonna be dishing out dimes like some point center. Thadgic is easily a better passer IMO.

3. He doesn't drive. No, not literally never. But it is simply not a big part of his game. He, like Lauri, is just an opportunistic driver, not a forceful one. Combined with his good, but hardly special post ability, it means he doesn't warp defenses at all. You don't have to double this guy, and he doesn't create many defensive collapses, as he simply doesn't force the issue enough.

People say I'm just a hater, well I tried. I really tried to see something in his game to make me think we're not just seeing the beginning of another unsuccessful "plan" yet again. Well after these 15 games and everything I've read from Orlando fans who watched him for almost a decade, I'm sorry. This trade was a total dud and it was incredibly predictable.

Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

Because he's not as **** good as them?



Who was expecting him to walk into Chicago and perform as good as the the two best players in the league right now, either of which could be MVP?

You're also completely wrong on comments around defense. Just as everyone was wrong when they started blaming and questioning Wendell Carter's defense.

Positionally, as per the requirements of a Bulls center within a drop scheme, the defense has been fine. They've been getting killed at the POA and weakside help defense, both of those things leaving the center in no mans land and makes them look awful if you're not paying attention to the scheme.

Maybe you just are a hater?

[Leslie Forman]

You're also completely wrong on comments around defense. Just as everyone was wrong when they started blaming and questioning Wendell Carter's defense.

Positionally, as per the requirements of a Bulls center within a drop scheme, the defense has been fine. They've been getting killed at the POA and weakside help defense, both of those things leaving the center in no mans land and makes them look awful if you're not paying attention to the scheme.

Maybe you just are a hater?

Team DRTG with Vuc on the floor: 117.9
Worst team DRTG in the league (Sacramento): 117.9

Bulls team DRTG pre-Vuc trade: 111.6
Bulls team DRTG post-Vuc trade: 115.1

Orlando fans even say he sucks ass on defense.

But sure…it's all Zach and Coby's fault…uh huh.

[kingkirk]

Team DRTG with Vuc on the floor: 117.9
Worst team DRTG in the league (Sacramento): 117.9

Bulls team DRTG pre-Vuc trade: 111.6
Bulls team DRTG post-Vuc trade: 115.1

Orlando fans even say he sucks ass on defense.

But sure…it's all Zach and Coby's fault…uh huh.

I know what the numbers are. The defense is bad. I never suggested otherwise. I'm saying it's not on him but the issues that have plagued the team all season, which existed before Vucevic and do so after it.

The Magic also built quality defenses, of which Vucevic was part of. They managed to do it. Would be impossible to do if he was as bad as you suggested.

[Leslie Forman]

I know what the numbers are. The defense is bad. I never suggested otherwise. I'm saying it's not on him but the issues that have plagued the team all season, which existed before Vucevic and do so after it.

The Magic also built quality defenses, of which Vucevic was part of. They managed to do it. Would be impossible to do if he was as bad as you suggested.

Great! Maybe someday the Bulls too can load up the frontcourt with other defense-first players to cover for him just to become mediocre enough in the regular season to get an 8th seed and get annihilated in the playoffs, with Vuc getting BBQ chickened to death.

Can't wait.

[DJhitek]

I’ll say this, I’m grateful that the GarPax era ended and the Bulls at least are starting to run the franchise with a modern approach.

But as I’ve stated before, despite the tough schedule, Vuc plays a position that hardly impacts wining these days and now the franchise has to fill the most pressing need even before the trade was made. A playmaking point guard to male others better. And we basically have zero avenues other than paying a free agent this summer to accomplish that.

[kingkirk]

Great! Maybe someday the Bulls too can load up the frontcourt with other defense-first players to cover for him just to become mediocre enough in the regular season to get an 8th seed and get annihilated in the playoffs, with Vuc getting BBQ chickened to death.

Can't wait.

Or, perhaps they can sign decent two-way players instead?

Ideally, too, perhaps they can also not do what the Magic did and go years without credible on-ball creation and using a No. 6 pick on center whilst having a player like Vooch!

Though, I suppose the failures of the Magic are also Vucevic's fault too, right?

[CobyWhite0]

The Magic were 10th in defense last season and 8th in defense the year before with Vuc playing center for 32 minutes a night, so obviously having him on the floor isn't going to condemn a team to playing horrible defense for all of eternity.

This is Vuc's 10th season, the 8th in which he has a positive DBPM. While that doesn't make him a good defender, when you combine it with the fact that he has anchored top-10 defenses each of the last 2 seasons, it would seem to indicate he's not nearly as horrible as he's made out to be.

And maybe folks should ask fans in Utah and Philly and Denver if they think "Vuc plays a position that hardly impacts wining these days"? When the playoffs roll around, having a big man who can get his own points efficiently and who is top-10 all-time in DefReb% becomes huge.

But people are more than free to judge things after 16 games.

[Stratmaster]

Alright, I think I've seen enough so I'm just gonna say it: this guy is white DeMarcus Cousins.

Not exactly, of course. He has some slightly different negative/positive traits. He has fewer turnovers, but even worse defense. He doesn't ever pout, but he also doesn't ever bring any intensity. Ultimately, the end result is the same - he puts up similar box score impact (very, very high) with similar W/L column impact (very, very low).

So why is this? Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

1. The bottom tier defense. He's not "ok," he's not "passable," he is flat out awful. If you look at the league's starting centers, I honestly cannot see a worse defending first choice starting center in the league. At best, he's on a similar level as a Bryant/Wood/Towns type. But his mobility and explosiveness is so poor that I still say he's even worse than them.

2. He was billed as some excellent passer with amazing vision who could potentially be a poor man's Jokic - nope. His passing is basically just Satoransky-ish. He is able to have such a good assist:turnover ratio because he's incredibly risk averse, which leads to low turnover numbers, but also means he is not gonna be dishing out dimes like some point center. Thadgic is easily a better passer IMO.

3. He doesn't drive. No, not literally never. But it is simply not a big part of his game. He, like Lauri, is just an opportunistic driver, not a forceful one. Combined with his good, but hardly special post ability, it means he doesn't warp defenses at all. You don't have to double this guy, and he doesn't create many defensive collapses, as he simply doesn't force the issue enough.

People say I'm just a hater, well I tried. I really tried to see something in his game to make me think we're not just seeing the beginning of another unsuccessful "plan" yet again. Well after these 15 games and everything I've read from Orlando fans who watched him for almost a decade, I'm sorry. This trade was a total dud and it was incredibly predictable.

Why is he not having some Embiid/Jokic-like effect?

Because he's not as **** good as them?



Who was expecting him to walk into Chicago and perform as good as the the two best players in the league right now, either of which could be MVP?

You're also completely wrong on comments around defense. Just as everyone was wrong when they started blaming and questioning Wendell Carter's defense.

Positionally, as per the requirements of a Bulls center within a drop scheme, the defense has been fine. They've been getting killed at the POA and weakside help defense, both of those things leaving the center in no mans land and makes them look awful if you're not paying attention to the scheme.

Maybe you just are a hater?

I don't see any validity in any of the 3 numbered opinions Les gave.

Vuc's defense is underrated by this board. As I mentioned in the PG thread, he is weak on rotations, particularly gets caught back door at times (which shouldn't happen with the Bulls defense). But next to Theis (a big who can take on the rim protector rotations) he has actually looked very solid recently to the point of making some high impact defensive plays and stops.

Risk averse passing? He makes every pass a Center should make. In his role it is mostly drawing doubles passing back out to 3 point shooters. Are we looking for our Center to be Magic Johnson?

He doesn't drive aggressively? Odd, because I have noticed him get the ball outside and attack to his left many, many times. But he is a modern 3 point shooting Center. When you are hitting 41% of your 3's why would you drive of you are open for a 3? Vuc has taken roughly 47% of his shots from inside 10 feet (20% at the rim) and roughly 30% from the 3 point line. That seems about right where we want him to be.

I don't get the hate for this trade. This guy puts up double doubles, often by half time. Since coming to the Bulls he is averaging 22/10 in 31 minutes with 1 steal and 1 block per game. Over 50% FG% and 44% from 3. Lavine is shooting 41.6% from 3 this season. Vuc 41.4.

Last night 18/16/6.... in 29 minutes.

Then there is the view that the trade eliminated future options for acquiring talent. That just isn't the case.

The big question is do you re-sign Lauri? Theis? (26 mil between them in cap holds)

Felicio will be gone. Val can and should be gone. (That is 20 mil.)
OPJ and his 28 mil is gone.

The 2 best players (do I dare say "all-stars) are 25% of the cap next season combined.

It seems like we Chicago "Stans" feel a need to trash our best players