Image ImageImage Image

Pick retention tracking thread

Moderators: HomoSapien, Tommy Udo 6 , GimmeDat, dougthonus, DASMACKDOWN, Payt10, kulaz3000, fleet, RedBulls23, Ice Man, AshyLarrysDiaper

User avatar
nomorezorro
RealGM
Posts: 10,491
And1: 6,638
Joined: Jun 22, 2006
Location: GARPAX FOREVER

Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#1 » by nomorezorro » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:24 pm

if the season ended today, the bulls would have nearly a 1-in-4 chance of retaining their 2021 lottery pick.

could we be on the verge of seeing the front office pull off an unprecedented masterstroke — adding an all-star caliber talent while still tanking to add a top draft pick this offseason? is cade cunningham the final piece we needed to create a "big three?" is there a possibility that arturas karnisovas intentionally had zach lavine infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus? is our recent skid a form of noble protest against the unjust "play-in game" playoff expansion? all these questions and more can be discussed in this thread

hopefully we can at least catch OKC and get up above 40% odds. go bulls!

Image
WookieOnRitalin wrote:Game 1. It's where the series is truly 0-0.
Ice Man
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 22,484
And1: 10,937
Joined: Apr 19, 2011

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#2 » by Ice Man » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:49 pm

nomorezorro wrote:could we be on the verge of seeing the front office pull off an unprecedented masterstroke


If so, it would be entirely accidental, as -

1) The FO didn't expect to get worse after making the trade
2) No matter how many games we lose, the odds are that we won't retain the 2021 FRP

But luck is a superpower too.
cool007
RealGM
Posts: 16,542
And1: 2,073
Joined: Feb 03, 2005

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#3 » by cool007 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:56 pm

I really don't think we are winning many games so I rather tank a bit and move up atleast 1 spot, if not 2.
I want us to be in that 6th/7th spot at worst.
User avatar
Little Nathan
Head Coach
Posts: 7,213
And1: 4,589
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
Location: Germany
   

Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#4 » by Little Nathan » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:07 pm

We’re not out-tanking OKC. They haven’t won a game this month and have proven that they’re willing to do whatever it takes to keep it that way.

We might be able to catch Sacramento and Cleveland, but that’s it.
"Heart is a skill that players who shoot 3s might not have." - Chris Webber, actually getting paid for this
Wingy
General Manager
Posts: 9,714
And1: 1,473
Joined: Feb 15, 2007

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#5 » by Wingy » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:08 pm

Ice Man wrote:
nomorezorro wrote:could we be on the verge of seeing the front office pull off an unprecedented masterstroke


If so, it would be entirely accidental, as -

1) The FO didn't expect to get worse after making the trade
2) No matter how many games we lose, the odds are that we won't retain the 2021 FRP

But luck is a superpower too.


No way, bro. AK/BD playing 4D chess! :lol:

- They keep playing Pat major minutes while he gives nothing.
- They refuse to take a flier on a hungry, 10 day contract PG to run the team off the bench during ‘bad Coby’ games.
- Lots of Bad Coby getting plenty of run.
- The poor Thad/Vuc pairing, killing off “Thadgic”...then not pairing the better fitting Theis until...oh wait. Zach’s out!!
- Playing Zach on a bum ankle
- Not doing much to force Lauri out of his self-imposed star turn in “Weekend at Lauri’s.”
- The reluctance to try new defenses

I joke on the 4D, but it does seem like we’re making a whole bunch of decisions that aren’t the most conducive to winning.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 49,420
And1: 9,236
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#6 » by dougthonus » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:23 pm

Wingy wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
nomorezorro wrote:could we be on the verge of seeing the front office pull off an unprecedented masterstroke


If so, it would be entirely accidental, as -

1) The FO didn't expect to get worse after making the trade
2) No matter how many games we lose, the odds are that we won't retain the 2021 FRP

But luck is a superpower too.


No way, bro. AK/BD playing 4D chess! :lol:

- They keep playing Pat major minutes while he gives nothing.
- They refuse to take a flier on a hungry, 10 day contract PG to run the team off the bench during ‘bad Coby’ games.
- Lots of Bad Coby getting plenty of run.
- The poor Thad/Vuc pairing, killing off “Thadgic”...then not pairing the better fitting Theis until...oh wait. Zach’s out!!
- Playing Zach on a bum ankle
- Not doing much to force Lauri out of his self-imposed star turn in “Weekend at Lauri’s.”
- The reluctance to try new defenses

I joke on the 4D, but it does seem like we’re making a whole bunch of decisions that aren’t the most conducive to winning.


I think we're trying as hard as possible to win. Though I agree with some of the lineups / decisions not being choices I would make.

Some of these things you can't do much about, but the Theis/Thad thing is one I'd definitely switch. Not sure you have much better options that Pat/Coby and hoping they develop and playing Zach on a bum ankle didn't hurt more than resting Zach would have (he'll have a long rest with COVID anyway now). Not much to do about Lauri, and probably not enough practice time to switch to a new defensive scheme this late in the game.

Also pretty unlikely a 10 day is going to come in and solidify your PG position vs guys on the roster (even Arc/VAl).
http://linktr.ee/bullsbeat - links to the bullsbeat podcast
@doug_thonus on twitter
biggestbullsfan
RealGM
Posts: 10,316
And1: 848
Joined: Apr 28, 2004
     

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#7 » by biggestbullsfan » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:28 pm

This just brings up again that I’m upset that not only did we give up 2 picks, but that it’s only top 4 protected.
We couldn’t do 10?lol
User avatar
TheStig
RealGM
Posts: 13,836
And1: 3,531
Joined: Jun 18, 2004
Location: Get rid of GarPaxDorf

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#8 » by TheStig » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:51 pm

Such a depressing note. I really expected them to make a push for the playoffs.

They really should consider sitting Vuc and embracing the tank. Get close to 50/50 ish as possible.
WindyCityBorn
RealGM
Posts: 15,713
And1: 8,065
Joined: Jun 26, 2014
     

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#9 » by WindyCityBorn » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:07 pm

TheStig wrote:Such a depressing note. I really expected them to make a push for the playoffs.

They really should consider sitting Vuc and embracing the tank. Get close to 50/50 ish as possible.


I don’t think we need to sit anyone else to keep losing. Only way we stay competitive in games is if someone plays like Coby did every night. And they still got handled by a mediocre Memphis squad.
Am2626
Starter
Posts: 2,332
And1: 733
Joined: Jul 13, 2013

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#10 » by Am2626 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:10 pm

nomorezorro wrote:if the season ended today, the bulls would have nearly a 1-in-4 chance of retaining their 2021 lottery pick.

could we be on the verge of seeing the front office pull off an unprecedented masterstroke — adding an all-star caliber talent while still tanking to add a top draft pick this offseason? is cade cunningham the final piece we needed to create a "big three?" is there a possibility that arturas karnisovas intentionally had zach lavine infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus? is our recent skid a form of noble protest against the unjust "play-in game" playoff expansion? all these questions and more can be discussed in this thread

hopefully we can at least catch OKC and get up above 40% odds. go bulls!

Image


In the last 2 drafts after the lottery odds changed, 5 teams outside of the top 4 worst records got a top 4 pick. That is 5 out of the 8 top 4 picks went to teams outside of the top 4 worst records.

2019 Draft

Pelicans moved from 7 to 1 and took Zion.
Grizzlies moved from 9 to 2 and took Ja Morant
Lakers moved from 11 to 4 and took De’Andre Hunter (Traded)

2020 Draft

Hornets moved from 8 to 3 and took LaMelo Ball
Bulls moved from 7 to 4 and took Patrick Williams.
Am2626
Starter
Posts: 2,332
And1: 733
Joined: Jul 13, 2013

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#11 » by Am2626 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:25 pm

biggestbullsfan wrote:This just brings up again that I’m upset that not only did we give up 2 picks, but that it’s only top 4 protected.
We couldn’t do 10?lol


Why would Orlando trade away their best player for a top 10 protected pick? Also this draft has 5 potential Franchise changing players and the Bulls aren’t going to land at 5. They will either get a top 4 pick or land somewhere between 7-12.

Picks 6-10 probably aren’t going to bring back much so the top 10 protection versus top 4 doesn’t hold much value. The Bulls should know that better than any team. Think about the 3 consecutive drafts that they got Lauri, WCJ, and Coby White. Adding another one of those guys does nothing for the future of this team. Even though Patrick Williams was taken at 4 he’s in the same category. The Bulls don’t need to keep adding serviceable players that have a ceiling.
User avatar
Chewie
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,598
And1: 230
Joined: Jul 13, 2007
Location: Fishhawk, F-L-A.
       

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#12 » by Chewie » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:30 pm

Great thread idea and go OKC!
Turn down for what?
kodo
RealGM
Posts: 14,786
And1: 9,574
Joined: Oct 10, 2006
Location: Wrigleyville

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#13 » by kodo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:43 pm

100% lottery protecting both picks was what made the deal decent. Getting more #7 or lower picks wasn't going to change Chicago's trajectory we've been doing that for years. Many people wouldn't pay a big contract to keep any of our #7 picks, Coby Lauri or Wendell.

We need top 4 picks, and our future hasn't changed at all in that regard.
Wingy
General Manager
Posts: 9,714
And1: 1,473
Joined: Feb 15, 2007

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#14 » by Wingy » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:34 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Wingy wrote:No way, bro. AK/BD playing 4D chess! :lol:

- They keep playing Pat major minutes while he gives nothing.
- They refuse to take a flier on a hungry, 10 day contract PG to run the team off the bench during ‘bad Coby’ games.
- Lots of Bad Coby getting plenty of run.
- The poor Thad/Vuc pairing, killing off “Thadgic”...then not pairing the better fitting Theis until...oh wait. Zach’s out!!
- Playing Zach on a bum ankle
- Not doing much to force Lauri out of his self-imposed star turn in “Weekend at Lauri’s.”
- The reluctance to try new defenses

I joke on the 4D, but it does seem like we’re making a whole bunch of decisions that aren’t the most conducive to winning.


I think we're trying as hard as possible to win. Though I agree with some of the lineups / decisions not being choices I would make.

Some of these things you can't do much about, but the Theis/Thad thing is one I'd definitely switch. Not sure you have much better options that Pat/Coby and hoping they develop and playing Zach on a bum ankle didn't hurt more than resting Zach would have (he'll have a long rest with COVID anyway now). Not much to do about Lauri, and probably not enough practice time to switch to a new defensive scheme this late in the game.

Also pretty unlikely a 10 day is going to come in and solidify your PG position vs guys on the roster (even Arc/VAl).


I know everyone was excited for the Zach/Vuc pairing from the jump, but that was a good time to rest Zach - on that Western swing where we weren’t favored anyway. Not sure we got him right from there.

We’ve got plenty of other guys to at least try when Coby/Pat aren’t bringing it. Hoping they develop is not conducive to winning. That’s for the future. If you’re trying to squeeze out every win, we do have other guys like Arch, Val, TBJ, even Green. Likely to move the needle a whole bunch? No, but they can help in one-off games where Pat’s missing, and Coby’s making constant negative plays.

To negative Coby...it has happened too much lately. I have a hard time believing there’s not a guy out there hungry for a job who’s not willing to fight hard on D, dump it to Vuc, and focus simply on taking care of the ball. I look at the big plus performance from a guy like Donta Hall against us, and imagine there’s someone out there who can deliver us a big...net neutral. Coby has been that bad too often where neutral would be a win.

With that though, I think we’re seeing plenty of signs that we’re not just playoffs or bust this season.
meekrab
Head Coach
Posts: 6,245
And1: 3,770
Joined: Dec 15, 2014

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#15 » by meekrab » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:13 am

We'd probably rather give up the pick this year considering 2022 is the double draft, no?
KL78192020
General Manager
Posts: 7,807
And1: 6,506
Joined: Apr 19, 2009

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#16 » by KL78192020 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:17 am

whats the protection if it doesn't convey this year?
Pax for Prez
Starter
Posts: 2,119
And1: 225
Joined: Oct 02, 2005
Location: avoiding the WIFE

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#17 » by Pax for Prez » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:30 am

meekrab wrote:We'd probably rather give up the pick this year considering 2022 is the double draft, no?


Last I read, the 2023 draft would allow High Schools could enter ? (Which we could have no picks in :banghead: )

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/260271/NBA-May-Not-Allow-High-School-Players-To-Enter-Draft-In-Time-For-2022
meekrab
Head Coach
Posts: 6,245
And1: 3,770
Joined: Dec 15, 2014

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#18 » by meekrab » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:32 am

Pax for Prez wrote:
meekrab wrote:We'd probably rather give up the pick this year considering 2022 is the double draft, no?


Last I read, the 2023 draft would allow High Schools could enter ? (Which we could have no picks in :banghead: )

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/260271/NBA-May-Not-Allow-High-School-Players-To-Enter-Draft-In-Time-For-2022

Well that's a bummer. :nonono:
User avatar
nomorezorro
RealGM
Posts: 10,491
And1: 6,638
Joined: Jun 22, 2006
Location: GARPAX FOREVER

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#19 » by nomorezorro » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:33 am

KL78192020 wrote:whats the protection if it doesn't convey this year?


top 3 protected in 2022, converts to two second rounders if it doesn't convey next year either.

if we keep our pick this year, the 2023 pick we traded shifts to a 2024 pick to avoid violating the stepien rule
WookieOnRitalin wrote:Game 1. It's where the series is truly 0-0.
fleet
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 54,956
And1: 23,481
Joined: Dec 23, 2002
     

Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#20 » by fleet » Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:47 am

Bad day for the cause. Back to 10th worst. Wiz won too, it was an opportunity to make up ground.
Try the Trump Tax Calculator!

JackFinn wrote:I see you're back from a trip at the smarty pants store.

Return to Chicago Bulls