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You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives?

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You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#1 » by Wingy » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:20 pm

The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?

What would our team look like next year without the trades?
- The FA class still sucks
- We'd have our pick
- Now we have Zach on the verge of becoming a UFA

I'm hoping to base this discussion on the reality that our ownership is our ownership. They are not allowing a full tank this season.
- "Get Cade" is not a plan...and that "plan" is still in play even w/the trades.

We're probably still hovering where we are right now...sadly, and pathetically fighting for the 10th seed with all our little might. Sure we don't have the talent infusion of Vuc/Theis (and to a much lesser extent TBJ), but there's certainly a chance that continuity and familiarity would've actually lead to more wins in the 2nd half (or at least wouldn't have made us any worse than we are now).
- We're probably picking somewhere between (beloved) 7 to 10.

While I haven't taken a lot of time to come up with my own plan, why let that stop the discussion from starting?

I'll assume we have some sort of luck, and are able to land who I think a lot believe will be the most ready to contribute from day 1 in Davion Mitchell.

Lineup:
- Davion/Sato
- Zach/Coby
- PWill
- Lauri(matched ???)/Thad
- WCJ/Thad

With the weak FA class, I'm not exactly sure how we're going to upgrade in any significant way w/o shedding guys who are valuable when used correctly as role players (i.e. - Thad/Sato). Warts, and all...truth is...Lauri Markkanen is one of the better potential gets in this FA class too. :(
- S&T for Lonzo...I don't know as it's being realistic. If they wanted to take on say, Lauri $...they'd probably just keep Lonzo.

Then consider the very real possibility someone else loved Davion wreaking defensive havoc throughout the season/tourney, and he gets taken earlier. We end up with a raw youngster like Barnes, or Kai Jones? Yikes.

Even if we get Davion...is he really going to move the needle that much? You've gotta love his tenacity on the defensive end, but I question how much he'll impact an offense (even w/improved shooting%). At his age, he was a literal man among boys.

I see another craptacular Bulls team next season w/o the trades, a lot of losses, and Zach Lavine being a risk to walk...and be traded at diminished value. Maybe the answer is - the ship already sailed, and we should've traded Zach at the deadline. While someone like Leslie will argue (and perhaps correctly) that was the right move, it's just not what our real life ownership group is going to allow. Given ownership limitations, the "other path" looks terribly, terribly bleak to me. I don't understand why there's so many folks looking at it like it was clearly better.

To me it boils down to GarPax sucking for so long, and the ownership group letting them run this thing into the ground for years. I don't think we had a good path either way given the hyper profit-driven ownership group.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#2 » by The Force. » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:46 pm

Personally I would've only done the Theis/TBJ trades and kept the picks. I believe we could've moved WCJ and Coby in the summer for either picks or a better piece. Let Lauri walk and go into next season with young talent and assets.

I get the reasoning behind the Vuc deal (they wanted to keep LaVine happy and start winning games) but obviously the Bulls, even with all the upgrades, are barely a playoff team in the east. Not to mention a core of LaVine and Vuc is highly flawed with a likely 2nd round exit ceiling.

The real test will be the offseason, at which point the pressure will be on AKME to retool the team around Zach & Vuc. If they fail to do so effectively I believe the trade will end up being a resounding failure.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#3 » by TheStig » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:50 pm

To me the alternative to the Vuc movement was a complete rebuild. Not making the Vuc trade, selling off the pieces you didn't believe in at all and then getting a package for Lavine. That was the only real alternative.

That being said, it's clear that the Reinsdorf had no more appetite for losing. This was a clear win now move. It pushes up the time table and brings a reliable and effective big. Down this road, you're gonna have to make more win now moves and spend money.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#4 » by Wingy » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:53 pm

I'll add a few points:
- I believe AK when he says he's not done. I don't think he's blind to the types of players that succeed around Vuc. Asking to flip the whole roster in one season is unrealistic.
- If this experiment goes terribly wrong like many predict...then we're actually in a great position to regain assets by trading a more likely to have resigned Zach (due to the "commitment" shown with the Vuc trade). For some team looking to get over the hump...Zach's still going to be extremely valuable under contract, still in his 20s (and possibly even better).
- We have all our picks again starting in 2024, with a potentially awful roster (maybe even more awfuler than the current one if we decide to dump Zach)...just in time to full on tank for the potential "double class" that might be on the horizon around then.
- But I said our ownership doesn't like the tank. True, but AK will have had a chance to say to ownership "look, we tried to compete w/what we were given, we went for it, and it didn't work...now give us our own chance with our own players," and hopefully get to really hit the reset button if necessary.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#5 » by Stratmaster » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:56 pm

The Force. wrote:Personally I would've only done the Theis/TBJ trades and kept the picks. I believe we could've moved WCJ and Coby in the summer for either picks or a better piece. Let Lauri walk and go into next season with young talent and assets.

I get the reasoning behind the Vuc deal (they wanted to keep LaVine happy and start winning games) but obviously the Bulls, even with all the upgrades, are barely a playoff team in the east. Not to mention a core of LaVine and Vuc is highly flawed with a likely 2nd round exit ceiling.

The real test will be the offseason, at which point the pressure will be on AKME to retool the team around Zach & Vuc. If they fail to do so effectively I believe the trade will end up being a resounding failure.
I don't think it is obvious the Bulls are barely a playoff team in the east next season.

Adding Vuc and Theis inherently changes the way the Bulls have to play. It will take some time, but with the rest of this season, an off-season with some moves that add complimentary rotation players, and a full training camp, i think they are a playoff lock. The Bulls talent level right now is right there with the 5 through 7 seeds in the East. With the right rotation player added I think they can make a run at the 4 seed next season.

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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#6 » by The Force. » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:08 pm

Stratmaster wrote:
The Force. wrote:Personally I would've only done the Theis/TBJ trades and kept the picks. I believe we could've moved WCJ and Coby in the summer for either picks or a better piece. Let Lauri walk and go into next season with young talent and assets.

I get the reasoning behind the Vuc deal (they wanted to keep LaVine happy and start winning games) but obviously the Bulls, even with all the upgrades, are barely a playoff team in the east. Not to mention a core of LaVine and Vuc is highly flawed with a likely 2nd round exit ceiling.

The real test will be the offseason, at which point the pressure will be on AKME to retool the team around Zach & Vuc. If they fail to do so effectively I believe the trade will end up being a resounding failure.
I don't think it is obvious the Bulls are barely a playoff team in the east next season.

Adding Vuc and Theis inherently changes the way the Bulls have to play. It will take some time, but with the rest of this season, an off-season with some moves that add complimentary rotation players, and a full training camp, i think they are a playoff lock. The Bulls talent level right now is right there with the 5 through 7 seeds in the East. With the right rotation player added I think they can make a run at the 4 seed next season.

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A 4 seed is very optimistic. I don't think we are better than Brooklyn, Philly, Milwaukee, or ATL. Then there's Boston, Charlotte, NY, and Miami who will be on par with, or better than the Bulls.

There are no good PGs to choose from this summer which happens to be our biggest need. So I'm assuming we'll either settle on a washed up Mike Conley or overpay for Ball. Both lackluster options, neither of which significantly moves the needle for us.

With this year's pick likely going to Orlando our only hope is that P-Will makes a significant jump next year, and I mean SIGNIFICANT. Unfortunately the chances of that happening are extremely low based on his play thus far.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#7 » by HOTCARL_o » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:44 pm

Yeah these moves were to make this team competent within the upcoming years. Reinsdorf can honestly careless about a championship. If the ceiling is a second round exit and maybe an appearance in the ECF, he’s content with that because it brings in money and more interest in the Bulls again.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#8 » by MrSparkle » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:58 pm

For me it boils down to tank fantasies that sound great on paper.

Bulls had zero stars. OKC had 2 declining stars traded out for a lot of stocks, and they rebuilt CP3's broken value to all-star along with discovering Shai is actually a cornerstone perennial star talent. Easier said than done, doing what they're doing. I'm going to say that they lucked out; Chris Paul had a late renaissance and rehabbed his diet and conditioning after a 2-year decline in Houston, and Shai ended up being a better offensive star than both sides expected. Nobody on the Bulls' roster sniffed the value of PG13 nor Westbrook/Paul at their peaks (which OKC wisely traded both - smart trades of course, but it's not like Presti went to LAC pursuing Shai, the whole thing was kicked off by Kawhi's arrival in LA and desire to pair with a star).

The 2020 draft wasn't promising a star. All our "assets" were rock-bottom value. There was no cap-space, and there are no star FAs available. The best chance to get a star was internal improvement, and it happened: Zach made the ASG. A tank season with the adjusted odds could've left Chicago with a #4-7 pick equally as likely as a #1-3. People are already taming expectations for Suggs and Cade (though I do think both will be very good NBA players - but Lillard and Luka? Uh). Sounds like a 5-year Hinkie plan with WORSE lotto adds to me. On top of 3 prior tank years, do we really want a potential 8-10 year rebuild window?

Somebody would have to come out with a home-run offer for Zach to get the phone. What team in its normal mind trades a 25yo at the deadline 2 weeks after making his first all-star game? (GarPax hide behind a bush)

So it made sense to buy talent.

And what normal fan thinks that a 24/11/4 player with a 24 PER on a $20m contract is a god awful pickup? I get the emotions with this month's losing streak, it's been ugly. But this wasn't a replace Mehmet Okur in an elite defensive starting line-up with Rasheed Wallace mid-season trade. This team was winning at a fringe 500 rate with fast-pace small-ball before the deadline, playing 4 guards and a small big with shoot/pass/dribble facility. They switched to an ultra big starting 5 with practically no ball-handling advantages except Zach.

I'm fairly sure there can be a star in the 8-15 range. Each draft has the one that got away. But they're few and far between, and many hot picks come down to earth (Herro). Haliburton seems to be getting crazily hyped. He's a utility guard like a rich man's Temple, not an elite playmaker. He's playing a 6th man role alongside that talented Fox fella. Anybody who thinks this guy is a franchise game-changer is drinking too much FOMO-koolaid. You can go become a fan of the 24-35 Kings if you're that hot on Haliburton. They've got a top-5 young PG in the league and a competent starting unit, and I have this feeling that if Haliburton was a franchise-changing piece, they'd be winning more games, and he'd be starting and handling the rock more than his 17% usage off the bench.

My point is that whatever pick we were more likely to get in the top-15, the odds of getting a "cornerstone star" are minuscule compared to the pair of $44m 2021 all-stars we have. So cry a river. :oops: But this FO has the easiest job in the league this summer: acquire defensive specialists. The prior 2 years of Vuc Magic had a way better defensive rating than the Bulls have had since Butler and Taj wore Bulls uniforms.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#9 » by Hold That » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:59 pm

Who was the last good big man that has came out the draft the last 3 drafts?? Ayton? Yeah not much has been available at the front court position through draft. And I don’t see Evan Mobley as some can’t miss big. I don’t regret the Vuc trade, there’s not a wave of bigs on the way in this draft or next years draft for that matter.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#10 » by kodo » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:04 pm

The FA alternatives were pretty uninspiring, and as always Bulls are fairly low down the totem pole for FA's.

I've taken a sports site's best remaining FA options of 21:
https://sportsnaut.com/top-25-nba-free-agents-of-2021/

1. Kawhi Leonard -- he's not leaving LA, and surely not for Chicago
2. John Collins -- Restricted, and he's for max which is more than what Vuc makes. ATL has also said they're matching all offers.
3. Chris Paul -- he's not turning down $40M+ and the 2nd best team in the WC to come to a non-playoff team
4. Oladipo-- major injury concerns, already on the Heat
5. Lowry-- he'll either be sign & traded, or he'll join a team of his choosing which won't be a non-playoff team like Chicago
6. Conley-- he wants to stay with the winning Jazz, the only thing that might pry him away is overpaying him with a $40M+ contract
7. Derozan-- similar to Lowry, he'll either be traded, or he'll choose his team as a UFA, which won't be a lottery team
8. Ball -- Restricted, will be traded. Bulls can trade assets for the privilege of paying him a huge contract here.
9. Jarrett Allen -- no reason in the world for CLE not to keep him
10. Andre Drummond -- he wants to stay in LA and the feeling is mutual, but they probably can't clear enough cap.
11. Lauri Markkanen -- this is the most definite free agent we can get.

It boils down to
- Young, good FAs like Collins or Allen: Restricted, and if they're good their teams keep them
- Older, good FAs like CP3, Lowry, Conley, Derozan: Unrestricted, they would never choose a lotto team like Chicago over teams like the Jazz or Suns

I feel like the only realistic way to get a FA is to massively overpay since Chicago offers nothing in terms of winning or weather or taxes. Last year Gallinari got $20M-$21M per year for 3 years to come off the bench in ATL for about 13 ppg. We would probably have to pay more than that for the same level of player.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#11 » by FriedRise » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:38 pm

I know we've sucked since the trade deadline, but I trust our FO when they said that they're not done. They obviously are working with a lot more information than we as fans are because who could've guessed that guys like Vooch, Theis, or TBJ would be available? And I can appreciate that they're not afraid of making bold moves, given how quick moving they were at getting BD to sign here or making franchise-changing moves like mortgaging our picks for an all star or drafting a player with high upside vs high floor.

They are the anti-GarPax. We as fans need to change our way of thinking from the old, uninspiring stand-pat/safe non-moves to a high risk, high reward model. It's a complete flip - at least to start anyway since this roster obviously needed a complete overhaul.

Not every move AKME make is gonna be a home run (nobody's perfect) - and this is gonna be a multi-season work in progress given how bad the state of the team was before AKME got here - but I appreciate their level of activity and how NOT risk-averse they are. When your team is already bad, everything is on the table. I believe that's how they operate.

None of us knows what they're gonna do this offseason given how tightlipped they have been with everything, but I certainly wouldn't limit ourselves to just the list of 2021 free agents when talking about potential upgrades. Definitely not with this front office.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#12 » by sco » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:28 pm

First of all, Great OP.

I love you guys (or whatever non-gender-specific word is PC)! We are FANatics. We lose a game and need a scapegoat, and that's what's so much fun to debate about!

On topic, going into the season, I thought that ORL was on an upswing and that they wouldn't rebuild due to a couple of injuries. I think Vuc's availability was a surprise to the league (including AK). Was it a bad trade? I don't know. What I do know is that we have a GM who is motivated to win sooner than later, and I am tired of rooting for high draft picks that statistically are often whiffs (especially in our case). IMO, it's similar to him landing Billy, who, I think is a way better coach than anybody else that we'd likely land. Folks can be mad that we didn't nab Kawhi and Pops, but those weren't available options.

I am also Bullish on nabbing Theis and Brown. I think these guys have already shown themselves to be real difference makers.

Are we winning more? No, but I think we're better positioned to do so than we've been in a long time.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#13 » by kodo » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:44 pm

In some ways, the Vuc path and the non-Vuc path are the still the same.
Best case for this season without Vuc: win the lotto and get a top 4 pick.
Best case for this season with Vuc: win the lotto and get a top 4 pick.

Vuc is almost more insurance so we walk out of this season with something if we don't get a high pick.

Failure is doing what we've always done under Paxson & Foreman: trying to build a contender out of #7 and #8 picks. The best BPA mocked to fall to us is Corey Kispert, who has been most often compared to Joe Harris. I don't see Joe Harris 2.0 who enters the league at 23 being a Finals MVP for Chicago. Detroit tried to rebuild by getting #8 every year, this is not a model to emulate.

Get me off the Wendell Carter / Coby White / Lauri Markkanen train, in either direction. If we get a top 4 pick instead, wonderful. If we don't get a top 4 pick, yes I prefer a vet all-star like Vuc.

And some of this is more than just odds of winning the title. Basketball at the end of the day is nothing but entertainment, and for me the product on the floor when the heart of the team was Lavine/Coby/Markkanen/Wendell was just awful to watch. The Bulls have been a better product for me this year, even if the Ws aren't there. And a lot of this has to do with these recent draft picks being de-emphasized in favor of guys who know how to play basketball.

There's something to be said for just playing basketball the right way for the fans. People were talking about how Utah should break it up last season (only keeping Donovan) after 4 years of being a 1st/2nd round exit. They've never went into a tank or "youth movement." They just kept playing the right way. The Heat pre Butler were the same. Toronto pre Kawhi.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#14 » by Michael Jackson » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:54 pm

kodo wrote:The FA alternatives were pretty uninspiring, and as always Bulls are fairly low down the totem pole for FA's.

I've taken a sports site's best remaining FA options of 21:
https://sportsnaut.com/top-25-nba-free-agents-of-2021/

1. Kawhi Leonard -- he's not leaving LA, and surely not for Chicago
2. John Collins -- Restricted, and he's for max which is more than what Vuc makes. ATL has also said they're matching all offers.
3. Chris Paul -- he's not turning down $40M+ and the 2nd best team in the WC to come to a non-playoff team
4. Oladipo-- major injury concerns, already on the Heat
5. Lowry-- he'll either be sign & traded, or he'll join a team of his choosing which won't be a non-playoff team like Chicago
6. Conley-- he wants to stay with the winning Jazz, the only thing that might pry him away is overpaying him with a $40M+ contract
7. Derozan-- similar to Lowry, he'll either be traded, or he'll choose his team as a UFA, which won't be a lottery team
8. Ball -- Restricted, will be traded. Bulls can trade assets for the privilege of paying him a huge contract here.
9. Jarrett Allen -- no reason in the world for CLE not to keep him
10. Andre Drummond -- he wants to stay in LA and the feeling is mutual, but they probably can't clear enough cap.
11. Lauri Markkanen -- this is the most definite free agent we can get.

It boils down to
- Young, good FAs like Collins or Allen: Restricted, and if they're good their teams keep them
- Older, good FAs like CP3, Lowry, Conley, Derozan: Unrestricted, they would never choose a lotto team like Chicago over teams like the Jazz or Suns

I feel like the only realistic way to get a FA is to massively overpay since Chicago offers nothing in terms of winning or weather or taxes. Last year Gallinari got $20M-$21M per year for 3 years to come off the bench in ATL for about 13 ppg. We would probably have to pay more than that for the same level of player.



Hold on there a second skippy... are you implying that we can’t just sign good players on better teams to just come here because we say so? I’m not sure that’s logical. You just tell a guy like Conley he is signing here and he has to. Why would he want to stay on a contender that he has chemistry with. You did forget Schroeder on your list too and even though he is likely just holding LA hostage (they won’t have space to sign anyone else) we can just politely tell him that he is coming here instead and I’m pretty sure according to the CBA if we say that to a player via text or email, his is contractually bonded to signing with us.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#15 » by Michael Jackson » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:57 pm

The Force. wrote:Personally I would've only done the Theis/TBJ trades and kept the picks. I believe we could've moved WCJ and Coby in the summer for either picks or a better piece. Let Lauri walk and go into next season with young talent and assets.

I get the reasoning behind the Vuc deal (they wanted to keep LaVine happy and start winning games) but obviously the Bulls, even with all the upgrades, are barely a playoff team in the east. Not to mention a core of LaVine and Vuc is highly flawed with a likely 2nd round exit ceiling.

The real test will be the offseason, at which point the pressure will be on AKME to retool the team around Zach & Vuc. If they fail to do so effectively I believe the trade will end up being a resounding failure.



Just a personal side note... I really disliked WCJ and he could honestly make the next 5 allstar games in a row and I would still be ok with having traded him at the deadline. I couldn’t watch him being so far in his head for another minute.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#16 » by dougthonus » Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:28 pm

Wingy wrote:The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?


So far, we have not demonstrated we are better with the trade, so all the risks you pose of not doing it (Zach walking, poor results, etc...) still exist, except we are also out two 1st round draft picks and WCJ.

The upside of having those other assets which better fit our timeline is obvious. Would you rather have a lottery pick or not? Yes, you'd rather have one.

There's about a 20% chance that over those two picks you'd have drafted an all-star, that you gave up to have a 2.5 year run towards what?

We now have a very low ceiling, and we're not sure if we have even raised the floor. I'd rather have our picks, and trade Zach for a kings ransom this off-season now that he's proven and start fully over than move forward with our existing roster.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#17 » by MGB8 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:49 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Wingy wrote:The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?


So far, we have not demonstrated we are better with the trade, so all the risks you pose of not doing it (Zach walking, poor results, etc...) still exist, except we are also out two 1st round draft picks and WCJ.

The upside of having those other assets which better fit our timeline is obvious. Would you rather have a lottery pick or not? Yes, you'd rather have one.

There's about a 20% chance that over those two picks you'd have drafted an all-star, that you gave up to have a 2.5 year run towards what?

We now have a very low ceiling, and we're not sure if we have even raised the floor. I'd rather have our picks, and trade Zach for a kings ransom this off-season now that he's proven and start fully over than move forward with our existing roster.


20% that between two picks, one that will almost certainly be in the mid-to-late lotto, one that could be anywhere (except top-4) in the draft (but almost certainly not in the late 20s)? Really? Let's say the Bulls give up pick 8 and 14. For the last 10 years, the 8th pick has been: B.Knight, T.Ross, KCP, Stauskas, Stanley Johnson, M.Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, J.Hayes, Toppin. Maybe Sexton becomes an all-star, maybe not - let's put the odds at 50/50 (which may be generous). That's a 5% chance based on the past 10 years. Pick 14? Going backwards, Nesmith, Langford, Michael Porter Jr., Bam, Denzel, Cam.Payne, TJ Warren, Shabazz, John Henson, Marcus Morris...

One allstar, one guy who maybe has a 50/50 shot of being an all-star... maybe you do get to a 20% chance.. of drafting a guy around as good as Vucavic between the two picks... but so what?

The real issue is the 5% or so chance combined between picks that you get a guy that isn't a mere all-star, but a super-star - whether in the mid-rounds like Giannis and Leonard or higher up like Dame (maybe Trae Young)...
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#18 » by pipfan » Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:54 pm

I was all in on Vuc-I probably posted 5 version on the Trade board to get him in Chic. I am fine with our team. If we luck into the top of the draft, and we could get a great offer for Lavine/Vuc (I think Wiseman/#4 or 5 from GS could be in play), I would reset and build around 2 top 5 picks, White, Williams, Lauri, Brown and Wiseman in a second.

But assuming not, I run it back-and pray Williams becomes a stud. I like Brown a lot, he could become a great 3rd wing. Sato and Young are still good vet depth. Coby looks better again-plus we have 2 All Stars in their prime.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#19 » by transplant » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:08 pm

I like Vuc a lot more than WCJ. He's a legit NBA big and probably the 3rd best pure C in the league (which in today's NBA includes the ability to hit the open 3). His defensive limitations are overstated. While he's not a good mobile defender, he's 5th in defensive rebounding % which shouldn't be overlooked.

It's no secret that the Bulls need a legit PG. Teams with legit PGs give the Bulls fits because they don't have one of those. It's an immediate mismatch that creates turnovers on defense and allows the opposing offense to run what they want without significant resistance. The Cavs don't have great PGs, they just have 2 of them that are better than any of ours.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#20 » by dougthonus » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:37 pm

MGB8 wrote:20% that between two picks, one that will almost certainly be in the mid-to-late lotto, one that could be anywhere (except top-4) in the draft (but almost certainly not in the late 20s)? Really? Let's say the Bulls give up pick 8 and 14. For the last 10 years, the 8th pick has been: B.Knight, T.Ross, KCP, Stauskas, Stanley Johnson, M.Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, J.Hayes, Toppin. Maybe Sexton becomes an all-star, maybe not - let's put the odds at 50/50 (which may be generous). That's a 5% chance based on the past 10 years. Pick 14? Going backwards, Nesmith, Langford, Michael Porter Jr., Bam, Denzel, Cam.Payne, TJ Warren, Shabazz, John Henson, Marcus Morris...

One allstar, one guy who maybe has a 50/50 shot of being an all-star... maybe you do get to a 20% chance.. of drafting a guy around as good as Vucavic between the two picks... but so what?

The real issue is the 5% or so chance combined between picks that you get a guy that isn't a mere all-star, but a super-star - whether in the mid-rounds like Giannis and Leonard or higher up like Dame (maybe Trae Young)...



I'd say in a typical draft in the 7-14 range, there is typically one guy who is an all star, so I think the odds are higher than you think, and yes, there is a chance of missing on a flat out superstar.

If Vucevic was four years younger or a higher caliber player then I'd get it, but he's neither. He's a non-needle moving 30 year old. I wouldn't give up two firsts and a guy I peg to be a low rung starter for Vucevic. Maybe history will prove me wrong, but I doubt it.

People arguing that the picks will probably be bad are right. They probably will be be bad, but if we had a 1 in 5 chance of getting an all-star and a 1 in 20 chance of getting a superstar, then both are better off than a Vucevic. I'm not convinced the team is even better post trade yet let alone better enough to justify what we gave up.

This trade is currently trending somewhere between mistake and god awful, franchise altering mistake. Hopefully next year there are enough returns that the upside is at least break even.
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