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You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives?

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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#61 » by dice » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:44 am

dougthonus wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:There is a difference between skeptically waiting to see how it flushes out, and condemning it as a failure because it didn't immediately show an end result. Likely where we are at with our different views.


I'm not condemning it as a failure due to it not having immediate results. I'm condemning it as a failure based on my evaluations of the players moved, picks moved, value of all of those assets and what I project those values to be in short / long term.

I think this is a short term move where we gave up long term benefits except our ceiling after this move is too low for it to be meaningful. I don't think we will get out of the 1st round or even be competitive in the 1st round of the playoffs with this team.

it reminds me of the khalil mack trade by ryan pace. by deferring mack's salary (twice) it basically gave the team a 2 year window to be a contender. w/ trubisky coming off an awful rookie campaign in which the team won 5 games. it just made no sense from a timing perspective. pace got incredibly lucky by trubisky playing really well the next year and the defense forcing a huge number of turnovers (unsustainable), but it was a mirage. and now the team is suffering the consequences

the bulls prior to the vucevic trade were effectively that 5 win bears team. except instead of 2 full seasons to make it work - the length of vucevic's very reasonable deal - there was also the faint hope of making the playoffs this season (which is basically gone now). and, of course, the assets the bulls gave up were probably not as substantial. but there is also no potential quickly rising star on the roster a-la trubisky was at the time. and lavine gets paid big after next season
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#62 » by PaKii94 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:46 am

Man with every passing game vuc seems more and more overrated. He's a nice offensive piece but he's not worth disassembling the whole team for him especially when you consider the negative he is on defense.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#63 » by PaKii94 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:49 am

What were the alternatives? Our team had 3 problems:
1) huge unforced TOs. This is solved by getting a PG - still a problem

2) rim protection was lacking. This was a point of attack issue. How do we address it? By bringing in a worse C defender of course!

3) lack of FT drawing. How do we address it? Obviously getting a huge volume big who has like the lowest FT drawing rate ever
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#64 » by WindyCityBorn » Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:58 am

PaKii94 wrote:What were the alternatives? Our team had 3 problems:
1) huge unforced TOs. This is solved by getting a PG - still a problem

2) rim protection was lacking. This was a point of attack issue. How do we address it? By bringing in a worse C defender of course!

3) lack of FT drawing. How do we address it? Obviously getting a huge volume big who has like the lowest FT drawing rate ever


Vuc is a Hell of player. He addressed the issue of having another legit high volume scorer, rebs extremely well, can create his own shots, passes well and spaces the floor from the C spot. Also makes it easy to not overpay Markkanen.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#65 » by dukeespn » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:53 am

WindyCityBorn wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:What were the alternatives? Our team had 3 problems:
1) huge unforced TOs. This is solved by getting a PG - still a problem

2) rim protection was lacking. This was a point of attack issue. How do we address it? By bringing in a worse C defender of course!

3) lack of FT drawing. How do we address it? Obviously getting a huge volume big who has like the lowest FT drawing rate ever


Vuc is a Hell of player. He addressed the issue of having another legit high volume scorer, rebs extremely well, can create his own shots, passes well and spaces the floor from the C spot. Also makes it easy to not overpay Markkanen.



Vuc is a hell of a player and STILL he doesn't solve any serious problems Bulls have right now.

Pakii94 made great points. WINNING requires more than just having two volume scorers who are terrible defenders and who lack playmaking.

You'll never build a winning team without legit playmaker unless your defense is really good. Unfortunately Bulls' two best players are bad defenders.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#66 » by ZOMG » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:16 am

WindyCityBorn wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:What were the alternatives? Our team had 3 problems:
1) huge unforced TOs. This is solved by getting a PG - still a problem

2) rim protection was lacking. This was a point of attack issue. How do we address it? By bringing in a worse C defender of course!

3) lack of FT drawing. How do we address it? Obviously getting a huge volume big who has like the lowest FT drawing rate ever


Vuc is a Hell of player. He addressed the issue of having another legit high volume scorer, rebs extremely well, can create his own shots, passes well and spaces the floor from the C spot. Also makes it easy to not overpay Markkanen.


If "creating your own shot" means stopping the offense while pounding the ball in the low post until you have a semi reasonable chance for a half-blind jump hook... I'm not sure I want you creating your own shot.

Individual defensive rebounding is a useless stat. Vuc hangs around under the basket, not chasing anyone out to the perimeter - he's gonna get his hands on a lot of boards. Duh.

What really matters is offensive rebounding, and on the Bulls, Vuc is averaging 2.4 per 36. For comparison's sake, Wendell is averaging 3.8 in Orlando.

In theory, Vucevic does space the floor from the perimeter, but on this team he spends so much time either waiting for the ball or pounding it in the low post that it doesn't matter at all. His outside shooting ability is not turning into easier interior baskets for the rest of the players.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#67 » by DJhitek » Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:23 am

Khalil Mack plays one of the most important positions in football and the impact was immediate. I’m not sure it totally applies other than creating a window to produce results.

Alternative would have been simple, keep the picks, find new homes for Markennen, White and WC and accumulate assets. When draft day comes, trade up for your guy or trade down for more dart throws.

As for Zach Lavine, I understand wanting to put some pieces around him and he has far exceeded any expectations I had for him. But because of the lack of talent around him, I wouldn’t compound the issue by sacrificing assets to get him more wins.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#68 » by pipfan » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:29 pm

I think we should move PWill to the 4. That would help a lot. He is not quick enough to be a perimeter stopper, but can really be a mobile 4. If that set shot improves, he should be able to space the floor enough. Then we need a wing-badly (plus a PG).

White/Sato/Archie
Lavine/Brown/Sato
???/Brown/Williams
Williams/Thad/Theis
Vuc/Theis/Simonovic

The million dollar question is-how do we get a solid wing in here-who can create, shoot and play d?
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#69 » by beeshma » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:44 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Wingy wrote:
I'll concede an All Star is around 20-30% of the time in the 7-14...15...16ish range every year. That does not mean the odds of the Bulls drafting an All Star with our pick are 20-30%. We don't get 9 picks to cash in on that 20-30% chance...we get 1 pick. Depending on where that pick falls, tons of guys on the list aren't even a possibility for us.


We traded two picks not one, so we get two shots at it, not one.

I'm not sure why you think I'm being disingenuous when I used straight objective math over a 18 year sample size


Doug, I've tried to understand your point about the value of these draft picks, but I guess I just don't see it. On the one hand, we obtained a current all star in Vuc, and we have other assets (coby, lauri's bird rights, Thad, other FRPs) that can be traded to improve the roster.

On the other hand, if we draft in the 7-14 range then based on your evidence 14.6% of players drafted in those slots since 2000 have become all stars. With 2 FRP picks in that range we would have had a 29.2% chance of drafting an all star and it would take a long time (4-8 years) to realize that potential.

So you seem to be arguing for a plan that has a 70.8% chance of failing, and if it succeeds will bear fruit 4-8 years from now. I would rather the FO tried stuff than waited if those are the odds.

PS. apologies if I misunderstood your data. I welcome clarification if I got that wrong.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#70 » by Mark K » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:44 pm

PaKii94 wrote:Man with every passing game vuc seems more and more overrated. He's a nice offensive piece but he's not worth disassembling the whole team for him especially when you consider the negative he is on defense.


Thankfully they did not disassemble the whole team for him, nor are the pieces they gave up for him likely to be actual, real franchise-changing assets.

Go read the threads on Carter on this board, or the discourse more generally — most thought he was ass and were out on him and wanted him gone.

Which then leaves two picks to consider, both of which have notable protections that keep you in the race for actual, real prospects with star upside.

I’ll never understand the handwringing.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#71 » by dougthonus » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:27 pm

beeshma wrote:Doug, I've tried to understand your point about the value of these draft picks, but I guess I just don't see it. On the one hand, we obtained a current all star in Vuc, and we have other assets (coby, lauri's bird rights, Thad, other FRPs) that can be traded to improve the roster.

On the other hand, if we draft in the 7-14 range then based on your evidence 14.6% of players drafted in those slots since 2000 have become all stars. With 2 FRP picks in that range we would have had a 29.2% chance of drafting an all star and it would take a long time (4-8 years) to realize that potential.

So you seem to be arguing for a plan that has a 70.8% chance of failing, and if it succeeds will bear fruit 4-8 years from now. I would rather the FO tried stuff than waited if those are the odds.

PS. apologies if I misunderstood your data. I welcome clarification if I got that wrong.


No, I think that is a fair summation when valuing the picks.

The rest of the equation is that I do not think this team is notably better with Vucevic. People keep calling him an all-star as a way to inflate his value. He's never been shown to move the needle and was an all-star twice out of 10 years.

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance Wendell Carter is a better center in three years than Vucevic is due to Carter improving and Vucevic degrading.

If we were in position to win right away, these things wouldn't matter, but the time value is also the problem. We're a mid 30s win team, and maybe this pushes us to a high 30s low 40s win team and maybe it does nothing. If it does pushes us, optimistically, to a low 40s win team, then we are still 1 superstar away from competing for a title and 2 away from being a favorite.

We are too far away from something meaningful to make a trade like this.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#72 » by PaKii94 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:48 pm

Mark K wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:Man with every passing game vuc seems more and more overrated. He's a nice offensive piece but he's not worth disassembling the whole team for him especially when you consider the negative he is on defense.


Thankfully they did not disassemble the whole team for him, nor are the pieces they gave up for him likely to be actual, real franchise-changing assets.

Go read the threads on Carter on this board, or the discourse more generally — most thought he was ass and were out on him and wanted him gone.

Which then leaves two picks to consider, both of which have notable protections that keep you in the race for actual, real prospects with star upside.

I’ll never understand the handwringing.


Sorry that was poorly worded. In a vacuum the trade was fair value. When I meant disassemble the team I meant the offensive structure that was in place.

The offense pre trade was really really good. I think it's got underrated how good it was. Literally everyone (besides Coby) was at easily career best efficiencies.

I think someone worked out that it would have been a top 5 offense IF the turnovers were just league average. Those turnovers themselves were of the careless shooting yourself in the foot variety (mostly Coby, somewhat Lavine) NOT due to the system. That could have been improved upon.

I was optimistic that Vuc would come in and slide into the Thad role as a "upgraded Thad with a legit 3pt shot". Instead what was working got disassembled to cater to Vuc's post ups.... But we aren't even posting him up THAT much. A lot of those post ups have been going to Thad. So instead of upgrading the offense to even more elite levels, they side/downgraded. The turnovers are still the same but now the offense is stagnant. You can see it in the decreased efficiencies by everyone.... But vuc.

Then you look at the defensive end and we severely downgraded in that. I was with you in the WCJ boat. He was actually a good defender (or at least not bad). We downgraded the defense from 30 mins of WCJ to 36 mins of Vuc while not addressing the actual point of attack deficiencies.

So we ended up getting worse on offense and worse on defense. With these results the trade was not worth it imo
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#73 » by Mark K » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:23 pm

PaKii94 wrote:Sorry that was poorly worded. In a vacuum the trade was fair value. When I meant disassemble the team I meant the offensive structure that was in place.

The offense pre trade was really really good. I think it's got underrated how good it was. Literally everyone (besides Coby) was at easily career best efficiencies.

I think someone worked out that it would have been a top 5 offense IF the turnovers were just league average. Those turnovers themselves were of the careless shooting yourself in the foot variety (mostly Coby, somewhat Lavine) NOT due to the system. That could have been improved upon.

I was optimistic that Vuc would come in and slide into the Thad role as a "upgraded Thad with a legit 3pt shot". Instead what was working got disassembled to cater to Vuc's post ups.... But we aren't even posting him up THAT much. A lot of those post ups have been going to Thad. So instead of upgrading the offense to even more elite levels, they side/downgraded. The turnovers are still the same but now the offense is stagnant. You can see it in the decreased efficiencies by everyone.... But vuc.

Then you look at the defensive end and we severely downgraded in that. I was with you in the WCJ boat. He was actually a good defender (or at least not bad). We downgraded the defense from 30 mins of WCJ to 36 mins of Vuc while not addressing the actual point of attack deficiencies.

So we ended up getting worse on offense and worse on defense. With these results the trade was not worth it imo


My issue with this is we're grading a trade based on a 17-game sample where LaVine has been hurt or in protocol, all while knowing the team surrounding Vucevic and LaVine is obviously flawed and not close to complete.

The minute we traded for Vucevic and Theis while keeping Markkanen and Thad, thus not adding any guards or wings, at that point didn't we know things were going to be unbalanced and problematic?

All while the team was embarking on a stretch of games that included 9 of 10 on the road, while drastically trying to integrate new players, schemes, and play playing style.

It was always a recipe for disaster, and imo, not a move that was going to turn things around immediately.

What we had previously wasn't sustainable. Relying so heavily on Thad Young to be your second best guy, no matter what the offensive or defensive metrics were, is problematic and not sustainable.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#74 » by dougthonus » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:31 pm

Mark K wrote:My issue with this is we're grading a trade based on a 17-game sample where LaVine has been hurt or in protocol, all while knowing the team surrounding Vucevic and LaVine is obviously flawed and not close to complete.


Some of us aren't. This trade is awful because we were a mid 30s win team and traded long term assets for a player that has a very limited shelf life and whose estimated impact to team wins should be very low based on his history.

The fact that we haven't even seen the minimal improvement yet and thus far it is only hypothetical make it worse, but isn't the core piece of the argument as to why this trade was a loser.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#75 » by Mark K » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:08 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Mark K wrote:My issue with this is we're grading a trade based on a 17-game sample where LaVine has been hurt or in protocol, all while knowing the team surrounding Vucevic and LaVine is obviously flawed and not close to complete.


Some of us aren't. This trade is awful because we were a mid 30s win team and traded long term assets for a player that has a very limited shelf life and whose estimated impact to team wins should be very low based on his history.

The fact that we haven't even seen the minimal improvement yet and thus far it is only hypothetical make it worse, but isn't the core piece of the argument as to why this trade was a loser.


I know how you feel about Vucevic, and with respect, I think you’re wrong, or at least underselling him as a player.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#76 » by dougthonus » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:11 pm

Mark K wrote:I know how you feel about Vucevic, and with respect, I think you’re wrong, or at least underselling him as a player.


The evidence to date (not just this season but on Vuc's entire career) doesn't suggest I am wrong.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#77 » by Mark K » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:14 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Mark K wrote:I know how you feel about Vucevic, and with respect, I think you’re wrong, or at least underselling him as a player.


The evidence to date (not just this season but on Vuc's entire career) doesn't suggest I am wrong.


I think you’re wrong in referring to a player who consistently gives you 20, 10 and 3 as a baseline, is a 2-time all-star, as simply as a “quality starter”.

That’s overly limiting to me.

I also think you ignore the context of why his teams haven’t won in previous years and unfairly lump that on him.

Is he good enough to lift a team beyond 35-40 wins as a solo star?

No.

How many of those guys exist in the league?

Maybe a handful.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#78 » by Leslie Forman » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:19 pm

dice wrote:it reminds me of the khalil mack trade by ryan pace

This looks way more like the James Shields trade. Even down to the situations of the two franchises involved.

At least Mack was an absolute no doubt All Pro, DPOY, future HOF guy. He's the best linebacker of his generation. Trading for an Embiid or something would be more similar to trading for Mack.

Pace actually had a decent idea…shame he had none of the offensive evaluation ability to actually execute it.
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#79 » by dougthonus » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:07 am

Mark K wrote:I think you’re wrong in referring to a player who consistently gives you 20, 10 and 3 as a baseline, is a 2-time all-star, as simply as a “quality starter”.

That’s overly limiting to me.

I also think you ignore the context of why his teams haven’t won in previous years and unfairly lump that on him.

Is he good enough to lift a team beyond 35-40 wins as a solo star?

No.

How many of those guys exist in the league?

Maybe a handful.


How many guys are needle movers regardless of all other things they can do that have these two traits that Vuc has:

1: League average (or below) efficiency
2: Near bottom of the league defensive ability at their position
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Re: You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives? 

Post#80 » by Am2626 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:24 am

dougthonus wrote:
beeshma wrote:Doug, I've tried to understand your point about the value of these draft picks, but I guess I just don't see it. On the one hand, we obtained a current all star in Vuc, and we have other assets (coby, lauri's bird rights, Thad, other FRPs) that can be traded to improve the roster.

On the other hand, if we draft in the 7-14 range then based on your evidence 14.6% of players drafted in those slots since 2000 have become all stars. With 2 FRP picks in that range we would have had a 29.2% chance of drafting an all star and it would take a long time (4-8 years) to realize that potential.

So you seem to be arguing for a plan that has a 70.8% chance of failing, and if it succeeds will bear fruit 4-8 years from now. I would rather the FO tried stuff than waited if those are the odds.

PS. apologies if I misunderstood your data. I welcome clarification if I got that wrong.


No, I think that is a fair summation when valuing the picks.

The rest of the equation is that I do not think this team is notably better with Vucevic. People keep calling him an all-star as a way to inflate his value. He's never been shown to move the needle and was an all-star twice out of 10 years.

I'd say there is a 50/50 chance Wendell Carter is a better center in three years than Vucevic is due to Carter improving and Vucevic degrading.

If we were in position to win right away, these things wouldn't matter, but the time value is also the problem. We're a mid 30s win team, and maybe this pushes us to a high 30s low 40s win team and maybe it does nothing. If it does pushes us, optimistically, to a low 40s win team, then we are still 1 superstar away from competing for a title and 2 away from being a favorite.

We are too far away from something meaningful to make a trade like this.


If you feel this way about Vuc you should be feeling the same way about LaVine because LaVine has never been able to move the needle either from a Win / Loss Perspective. I don’t see the same upside that you see in WCJ. He is always going to be an undersized center and his athleticism will never be that great. I think his ceiling has already been met and he may improve marginally but I never see him becoming an All Star Center. In 3 years Vuc will be 33 but I don’t see much of a decline as his game is based on footwork and shooting. He can remain the same level player for the next 5 years just based on his fundamentals and shooting ability. He loses neither skill set as he ages.

From a title perspective the Bulls maybe had a small window before Rose got hurt but this Organization has not been a title contender since Jordan left. The GarPax regime has already tried to build a team through low level lottery picks. I think there is enough of a sample size to see that this doesn’t work. Something new and different had to be done. I don’t think the Bulls would be any better off remaining status quo and hoping that the next 7-12 pick pans out.

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