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IF True and CP3 opts out, do we.............

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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#61 » by League Circles » Sun Jun 6, 2021 10:30 pm

dougthonus wrote:One interesting thing about this type of decision (whether it is CP3 or someone else), the guarantee date on Thad/Sato is prior to the season officially ending (in a normal year, june 30th), so we need to decide whether we are guaranteeing these guys prior to knowing whether people will sign for us or not.

The result is we will almost certainly guarantee both, but we can also probably trade both into cap space given how much cap room is out there and the lack of FAs available if we need to.


I agree that the timing is crucial and it sucks that we have to decide on those guys before we enter free agency but I really do not think we can just count on being able to trade them into cap space. It would be a really dumb move for a team to take one year of a player with no upside even if they're solid contributing rotation players with precious cap space. Cap space is to lock in decent pieces for multiple years. Yes of course sometimes you'll see teams take on guys like that but usually they want to draft pick for eating their own cap space for that reason.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#62 » by dougthonus » Sun Jun 6, 2021 11:05 pm

HomoSapien wrote:They had five returning players, and all five had career seasons. OKC is looking to rebuild, their goals are theoretically different than ours if we plan on keeping Zach long-term.


Sure, but it avoids the question. CP3's value is on the court. Those who think his off court or leadership value is worth 30 million per year if his on court value isn't worth that are simply mistaken.

To me his value is two-fold.

1.) He makes the players you have on your roster look better than they are (which increases their future trade value).

2. I believe there's a chance that he'd be able to attract some ring chasers to the team.


I agree with both these statements. I think he'll also (obviously) just be a good player for as long as he holds up. I just don't know how long that will be. At his age, this could be it, or maybe next year is it, or maybe two more years is it, who knows, maybe he has three more full good years.

I'd set the over under on that as one more year as a big impact player. I'd be a bit surprised if it were two but not shocked, and I'd be very surprised if he remained similarly good for three seasons.

As I said, I don't necessarily hate the idea, Vuc moved up our timeline quite a bit, but I think that big three is going to fall pretty far short and also fall apart pretty fast.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#63 » by dougthonus » Sun Jun 6, 2021 11:09 pm

League Circles wrote:I agree that the timing is crucial and it sucks that we have to decide on those guys before we enter free agency but I really do not think we can just count on being able to trade them into cap space. It would be a really dumb move for a team to take one year of a player with no upside even if they're solid contributing rotation players with precious cap space. Cap space is to lock in decent pieces for multiple years. Yes of course sometimes you'll see teams take on guys like that but usually they want to draft pick for eating their own cap space for that reason.


It depends on the team / circumstance, and I haven't looked around the league to be sure if anyone fits, but say you're a team that has 20M in cap room this year, you can't really get an impact player, but you'll be 80M under next year. You still want to fill out the roster but you don't want to give up your ability to get two max slots next off-season where you want to do something major in a bigger FA class.

Taking on guys like Sato/Thad for one year boosts to help make your franchise look better but not be critical pieces to attract a FA is pretty valuable. They also give your product a better look for a season without hurting your long term plans. If your alternative is to go 80M on Lauri Markkanen or not use the spade at all, you would probably consider a deal like that. Yeah, Bulls might need to throw some cash or a 2nd rounder in to make it happen, but I think you'd stand a decent chance of making such a trade.

That said, the Warriors got into that same boat with Iguodala and had to give up a 1st to pull it off. If there wasn't time pressure to do the deal, they probably would have stood a chance of pulling it off with less compensation, of course Iguodala was overpaid, I don't think Thad/Sato are overpaid.

I agree you wouldn't have people lining up though. I'd say it's probably a 50/50 to me whether you could make a deal like that happen without throwing in a 1st.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#64 » by HomoSapien » Sun Jun 6, 2021 11:16 pm

dougthonus wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:They had five returning players, and all five had career seasons. OKC is looking to rebuild, their goals are theoretically different than ours if we plan on keeping Zach long-term.


Sure, but it avoids the question. CP3's value is on the court. Those who think his off court or leadership value is worth 30 million per year if his on court value isn't worth that are simply mistaken.


Has anyone said that? Although we are trending in the right direction, I still think we need a few moves to broadly change our image into a more attractive franchise and destination. I think Paul could do that. There's a good chance his next team is his last one, and he would be the most influential player we've had since Jordan. I do think that could help us. I don't see CP3 retiring and returning to the Clippers or Pelicans, but he could remain a statesman for our team. How much is that worth, impossible to say.

I also think that we'd be in a better position after he retired than we are today, because he'd likely further help elevate Zach's standing and rank in the league, which would make us a more desirable landing spot in three years. Does that progression naturally happen? Probably to an extent, but Paul can help accelerate it.

Like you said, we've already chosen our lane with the Vuc trade. Lonzo, Lowry, and Conley would all be good signings but CP3 gives the best chance of moving the needle IMO, even if it's not a championship.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#65 » by dougthonus » Mon Jun 7, 2021 12:01 am

HomoSapien wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:They had five returning players, and all five had career seasons. OKC is looking to rebuild, their goals are theoretically different than ours if we plan on keeping Zach long-term.


Sure, but it avoids the question. CP3's value is on the court. Those who think his off court or leadership value is worth 30 million per year if his on court value isn't worth that are simply mistaken.


Has anyone said that?


When people use the statement that even if he declines, he'll still provide leadership so it is okay, they are implying this.

Although we are trending in the right direction, I still think we need a few moves to broadly change our image into a more attractive franchise and destination. I think Paul could do that. There's a good chance his next team is his last one, and he would be the most influential player we've had since Jordan. I do think that could help us. I don't see CP3 retiring and returning to the Clippers or Pelicans, but he could remain a statesman for our team. How much is that worth, impossible to say.


I think probably very little quite frankly. Especially if he doesn't have a good experience for whatever reason (which often seems pretty common for stars bouncing around the league at the end of their career).

I also think that we'd be in a better position after he retired than we are today, because he'd likely further help elevate Zach's standing and rank in the league, which would make us a more desirable landing spot in three years. Does that progression naturally happen? Probably to an extent, but Paul can help accelerate it.


Yeah, I just don't think things like this are reasonable or likely.

Like you said, we've already chosen our lane with the Vuc trade. Lonzo, Lowry, and Conley would all be good signings but CP3 gives the best chance of moving the needle IMO, even if it's not a championship.


Yeah, as I said, I'm okay with Paul, I know I'm being a bit nitpicky, IMO, he is worth it if he plays well. All these other things evaporate if he doesn't play well. You are gambling that he will continue to play well. If you think you can get value from him even if he doesn't play well then I think you're chasing the wrong thing.

I guess the long short of it is that I think a lot of the supplemental stuff people are saying is fluff. Paul's a great player still, and he'd be worth having if he can remain one for at least two more seasons, and there's reason to be hopeful that can happen (even if I'd bet against it). If he doesn't remain a great player though, this would end up as a disaster.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#66 » by HomoSapien » Mon Jun 7, 2021 12:05 am

dougthonus wrote:
I also think that we'd be in a better position after he retired than we are today, because he'd likely further help elevate Zach's standing and rank in the league, which would make us a more desirable landing spot in three years. Does that progression naturally happen? Probably to an extent, but Paul can help accelerate it.


Yeah, I just don't think things like this are reasonable or likely.


I'm afraid I don't understand why. If the Bulls were to be a playoff team during Paul's three years here and he helps Zach continue to elevate his standing around the league, you don't agree that would make them a more desirable franchise to outside players?
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#67 » by Dan Z » Mon Jun 7, 2021 12:57 am

Leslie Forman wrote:
CobyWhite0 wrote:It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for CP3 to opt out if he wishes to remain a Sun - all he has to do is sign a 2 year, $56 million extension that starts with the 2022-23 season.

He can't do that. You can't decrease your salary like that from year to year. That's why he has to opt out.

Unless Phoenix tells him to kick rocks, I don't know why he would leave Booker+Ayton+bunch of good role players for Zach+Vuc+absolutely no good role players to speak of.


Exactly. Even if the Bulls had the cap space there's no reason why he'd come here.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#68 » by CobyWhite0 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:16 am

Dan Z wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:
CobyWhite0 wrote:It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for CP3 to opt out if he wishes to remain a Sun - all he has to do is sign a 2 year, $56 million extension that starts with the 2022-23 season.

He can't do that. You can't decrease your salary like that from year to year. That's why he has to opt out.

Unless Phoenix tells him to kick rocks, I don't know why he would leave Booker+Ayton+bunch of good role players for Zach+Vuc+absolutely no good role players to speak of.


Exactly. Even if the Bulls had the cap space there's no reason why he'd come here.


First of all, yes he could do that, but that's irrelevant. Unless we're talking about people who know and understand the CBA, and people who don't. But we're not.

I agree that I don't see why he would come to the Bulls, but where else is he going if the Suns won't extend him? Thibs?? LOL, yeah I don't think so. Any other teams with cap space? You'd have to explain to me where else he's realistically want to go.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#69 » by dougthonus » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:21 am

HomoSapien wrote:I'm afraid I don't understand why. If the Bulls were to be a playoff team during Paul's three years here and he helps Zach continue to elevate his standing around the league, you don't agree that would make them a more desirable franchise to outside players?


I think the desirability is based on the quality of the team that is there. Paul will make it more desirable for ring chasers while he's an impact player if the team is playing well. As his game falls off and he retires, it won't be more desirable IMO because he was here for three years.

I've always thought team culture / reputation was sort of a meaningless complaint though. It's like the saying momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher in baseball. Culture is simply based on how good you project to be the next year.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#70 » by DuckIII » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:34 am

Is this one of those threads discussing the pros and cons in fantasy land? Chris Paul is not leaving PHX to come here. No established veteran looking to ring chase or put a stamp on a career is coming here. Not voluntarily in the summer of 2021 anyway.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#71 » by Dan Z » Mon Jun 7, 2021 2:13 am

CobyWhite0 wrote:
Dan Z wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:He can't do that. You can't decrease your salary like that from year to year. That's why he has to opt out.

Unless Phoenix tells him to kick rocks, I don't know why he would leave Booker+Ayton+bunch of good role players for Zach+Vuc+absolutely no good role players to speak of.


Exactly. Even if the Bulls had the cap space there's no reason why he'd come here.


First of all, yes he could do that, but that's irrelevant. Unless we're talking about people who know and understand the CBA, and people who don't. But we're not.

I agree that I don't see why he would come to the Bulls, but where else is he going if the Suns won't extend him? Thibs?? LOL, yeah I don't think so. Any other teams with cap space? You'd have to explain to me where else he's realistically want to go.


See Ducks post above this one.

Why wouldn't the Suns extend him? If they part ways he should be able to find a better suitor than the Bulls. A team might open up cap space for him or maybe a team like Miami goes after him.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#72 » by CobyWhite0 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 2:39 am

Dan Z wrote:
CobyWhite0 wrote:
Dan Z wrote:
Exactly. Even if the Bulls had the cap space there's no reason why he'd come here.


First of all, yes he could do that, but that's irrelevant. Unless we're talking about people who know and understand the CBA, and people who don't. But we're not.

I agree that I don't see why he would come to the Bulls, but where else is he going if the Suns won't extend him? Thibs?? LOL, yeah I don't think so. Any other teams with cap space? You'd have to explain to me where else he's realistically want to go.


See Ducks post above this one.

Why wouldn't the Suns extend him? If they part ways he should be able to find a better suitor than the Bulls. A team might open up cap space for him or maybe a team like Miami goes after him.


I don't know why the Suns wouldn't extend him, isn't the hypothetical that they won't the entire reason this thread exists? :dontknow:

If the Suns are willing to extend him, then let's lock the thread and delete it.
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Re: IF True and CP3 opts out, do we............. 

Post#73 » by Am2626 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 3:17 am

HomoSapien wrote:
Am2626 wrote:
HomoSapien wrote:Here's the exact quote if anyone's interested:



If we can get Paul for that, I don't know how we don't do it. Sure it's a lot of money, but it's only a three-year deal and with Vuc and Zach it doesn't make sense to do anything but try to go for it. Hopefully playing with those guys plus his old coach Donovan is appealing.

We'd need two things to happen for this scenario to be possible:

1.) Suns get bounced early. A Lakers comeback really helps this case.
2.) The notoriously cheap Suns to balk at giving Paul the kind of money he seeks.

Anyone know if Donovan and Paul had a good relationship?


I don’t see why CP3 would want to come to the Bulls. He would be a great addition to this team but he’s already in a better situation in Phoenix. More realistic targets are Lowry, Rose, Schroeder, or Lonzo. If Utah gets bounced this round maybe Conley Jr. is an option.


Money. That's the premise we're going off, that Paul is looking for one more pay day and the notoriously cheap Suns may balk.


One could argue that the Bulls also have a reputation of being notoriously cheap. Also do they have the cap space to contend with some of these other teams? They have to consider extending LaVine this summer. It doesn’t seem like the Bulls have the best financial position with guys already committed to their roster or guys like LaVine that they will prioritize extending. In all honesty I think CP3 is probably staying with the Suns.

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