Zach LaVine's impending Free Agency

[gf2020hotmail]

I updated my original post to reflect that the Pistons recently chose to eat up for $7 or $8 million of their cap space for next season by taking on DeAndre Jordan's contract at a slightly reduced figure after buyout. They will still have max space barely even if they land the number one pick again but it is a move that shows their mindset isn't really about competing in 22-23 or going after multiple players in free agency. If they were, they probably wouldn't do something like this and eat up cap space for literally nothing other than second rounders.

Of the very minor concerns I have in terms of Zach's market, Memphis is the one I think he'd be most tempted most by because they've made the playoffs recently and have a genuine star in Ja to pair him with. And Memphis, unlike a lot of other teams in their position, are making step back moves this off-season to have more room next off-season. All of their recent moves have essentially been about keeping a max slot open (trading Grayson Allen, dumping Bledsoe's small 22 guarantee for expiring contracts) when no other team is operating like that really.

So I am really hoping Jarrett Culver balls out in camp and in their first few games and forces them to pick up his option or Jaren Jackson has a great year, making his extension negotiations more difficult and unlikely to resolve quickly in free agency. Either of those occurring would basically remove them from the max cap space market.

[FanInTheAttic]

Read the first post in the thread. There isn't a contending team with cap space to offer him a contract even at his current salary of 20 million, let alone the max. Zach is going to be so sick of losing that he leaves for Detroit? San Antonio? Orlando? That's it! That's the market for him currently.

Almost no matter what happens, like others have said, Zach is going to take the Bulls offer and then figure out if he wants to force his way out in a year.


You are just inventing scenarios at this point. Last season, the Bulls after 55 games with less talent and bad injury luck were 22-33, a 400 winning percentage at what would have been the deadline in a normal season. Now, they are going to be five games worse than that? And AMKE is going to be so worried that Zach is going to leave for also bad teams that he trades him? Science fiction.

Why is everyone so sure AKME will offer him a max deal if we don't reach the playoffs?

when is the last time that a scorer of lavine's caliber didn't get maxed out (other than voluntary discounts)? has that EVER happened in the max salary era?

more effective scorers than lavine last season:

curry
embiid
giannis
zion
jokic
durant

that's about it

zach will probably struggle to match last season's scoring/efficiency output, but i don't see him regressing badly either. plus, given that the bulls will be over the cap regardless of what they pay lavine, he has a lot of leverage. the luxury tax is an issue, but he has indicated a willingness to take a discount to help the team, so...

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.Hawks were in the conference finals, and Luka is on a route to MVP awards. After a disappointing season, would Zach still be worth it? There is 3 all-stars and Lonzo in the team now, so we are not actually lacking much talent. If Zach keeps improving his game with the new team and takes us to the playoffs, then it’s a completely different scenario and offering him the max would probably be the best option for the Bulls.

BTW, Zach stated in an interview that "I want what I deserve, whatever that is" so maybe he would be flexible with his contract after an (unlikely) unsuccessful season.

[FanInTheAttic]

Why is everyone so sure AKME will offer him a max deal if we don't reach the playoffs?

Zach could also sign an offer with a lesser team and force his way out later, just like he can do when signing with the Bulls. .

That's why Zach will still have the leverage to get the max.

However, it's unlikely he'd ever sign somewhere else with a new front office and trust they would agree to deal him later if that's what he wanted. Nor would a different team offer that assurance. You don't do that with a new team because there's not a level of trust and agents don't want to damage their relationship. But a guy like Giannis can sign a max deal with the idea that if he's unhappy or they are uncompetitive, they'll work to move him to a new team

What makes you think AKME would be any different than any other FO? This is the NBA and people are doing their jobs and AKME will do what is best for the Bulls and not what is best for Zach. If a player requests a trade it is probably best for both parties to make that happen and find mutual agreement.

[FanInTheAttic]

I updated my original post to reflect that the Pistons recently chose to eat up for $7 or $8 million of their cap space for next season by taking on DeAndre Jordan's contract at a slightly reduced figure after buyout. They will still have max space barely even if they land the number one pick again but it is a move that shows their mindset isn't really about competing in 22-23 or going after multiple players in free agency. If they were, they probably wouldn't do something like this and eat up cap space for literally nothing other than second rounders.

Of the very minor concerns I have in terms of Zach's market, Memphis is the one I think he'd be most tempted most by because they've made the playoffs recently and have a genuine star in Ja to pair him with. And Memphis, unlike a lot of other teams in their position, are making step back moves this off-season to have more room next off-season. All of their recent moves have essentially been about keeping a max slot open (trading Grayson Allen, dumping Bledsoe's small 22 guarantee for expiring contracts) when no other team is operating like that really.

So I am really hoping Jarrett Culver balls out in camp and in their first few games and forces them to pick up his option or Jaren Jackson has a great year, making his extension negotiations more difficult and unlikely to resolve quickly in free agency. Either of those occurring would basically remove them from the max cap space market.

I appreciate your original post and the follow up and your are right looks like Zach's options are going to be limited next offseason. But it only takes one viable option and the Grizzlies sure look like it could be tempting. But it really depends on the next season, if everything goes according to AKME's plans, we don't have to worry about Zach leaving.

[dice]

Why is everyone so sure AKME will offer him a max deal if we don't reach the playoffs?

when is the last time that a scorer of lavine's caliber didn't get maxed out (other than voluntary discounts)? has that EVER happened in the max salary era?

more effective scorers than lavine last season:

curry
embiid
giannis
zion
jokic
durant

that's about it

zach will probably struggle to match last season's scoring/efficiency output, but i don't see him regressing badly either. plus, given that the bulls will be over the cap regardless of what they pay lavine, he has a lot of leverage. the luxury tax is an issue, but he has indicated a willingness to take a discount to help the team, so...

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.Hawks were in the conference finals, and Luka is on a route to MVP awards. After a disappointing season, would Zach still be worth it? There is 3 all-stars and Lonzo in the team now, so we are not actually lacking much talent. If Zach keeps improving his game with the new team and takes us to the playoffs, then it’s a completely different scenario and offering him the max would probably be the best option for the Bulls.

BTW, Zach stated in an interview that "I want what I deserve, whatever that is" so maybe he would be flexible with his contract after an (unlikely) unsuccessful season.

to be clear, what he deserves and what he'll get are very different concepts. but plenty of less-than-max-worthy players have gotten the max, including players on bad teams. and part of that is that bad teams still need to sell tickets

if the bulls fail this season (and that includes just squeaking into the playoffs/getting blown off the floor in round 1), my bet is that zach lavine will not get much of the blame. he never has

[Michael Jackson]

I updated my original post to reflect that the Pistons recently chose to eat up for $7 or $8 million of their cap space for next season by taking on DeAndre Jordan's contract at a slightly reduced figure after buyout. They will still have max space barely even if they land the number one pick again but it is a move that shows their mindset isn't really about competing in 22-23 or going after multiple players in free agency. If they were, they probably wouldn't do something like this and eat up cap space for literally nothing other than second rounders.

Of the very minor concerns I have in terms of Zach's market, Memphis is the one I think he'd be most tempted most by because they've made the playoffs recently and have a genuine star in Ja to pair him with. And Memphis, unlike a lot of other teams in their position, are making step back moves this off-season to have more room next off-season. All of their recent moves have essentially been about keeping a max slot open (trading Grayson Allen, dumping Bledsoe's small 22 guarantee for expiring contracts) when no other team is operating like that really.

So I am really hoping Jarrett Culver balls out in camp and in their first few games and forces them to pick up his option or Jaren Jackson has a great year, making his extension negotiations more difficult and unlikely to resolve quickly in free agency. Either of those occurring would basically remove them from the max cap space market.

Memphis is the real threat I agree. They have a group that will work with his prime too. It works for Memphis too because then they likely keep Ja happy. Always been a hard working culture there which Zach likes. Market though is not great and we 100% have the edge on that and I think that is a pretty big factor especially all other things being equal.

[FanInTheAttic]

when is the last time that a scorer of lavine's caliber didn't get maxed out (other than voluntary discounts)? has that EVER happened in the max salary era?

more effective scorers than lavine last season:

curry
embiid
giannis
zion
jokic
durant

that's about it

zach will probably struggle to match last season's scoring/efficiency output, but i don't see him regressing badly either. plus, given that the bulls will be over the cap regardless of what they pay lavine, he has a lot of leverage. the luxury tax is an issue, but he has indicated a willingness to take a discount to help the team, so...

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.Hawks were in the conference finals, and Luka is on a route to MVP awards. After a disappointing season, would Zach still be worth it? There is 3 all-stars and Lonzo in the team now, so we are not actually lacking much talent. If Zach keeps improving his game with the new team and takes us to the playoffs, then it’s a completely different scenario and offering him the max would probably be the best option for the Bulls.

BTW, Zach stated in an interview that "I want what I deserve, whatever that is" so maybe he would be flexible with his contract after an (unlikely) unsuccessful season.

to be clear, what he deserves and what he'll get are very different concepts. but plenty of less-than-max-worthy players have gotten the max, including players on bad teams. and part of that is that bad teams still need to sell tickets

if the bulls fail this season (and that includes just squeaking into the playoffs/getting blown off the floor in round 1), my bet is that zach lavine will not get much of the blame. he never has

Just out of interest, who are these less-than-max-worthy players who got the max you are thinking about? Trying to come up with someone in a similar kind of situation with Zach.

[gf2020hotmail]

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

What an arbitrary metric and up grading DeMarr to All-Star status is really something since he hasn't made it since he was a Raptor. But All-Status in 2018 is definitely relative to this extension discussion. Man, if only the Bulls could sign Andre Drummond and have another "all star" to pair with Zach.

Devin Booker got maxed out after three seasons where the Suns had gone 68-178.

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.

Well Zach is better than Trae so that would be pretty unsurprising to me. If Zach puts up the exact same numbers as last season he deserves and will get the max no matter what the team does around him. Just as Devin Booker did despite being on a losing horrific team. Just as Trae would have even if they won one less game last season and got demolished by the Bucks in the first round instead of getting a favorable bracket.

[dice]

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.Hawks were in the conference finals, and Luka is on a route to MVP awards. After a disappointing season, would Zach still be worth it? There is 3 all-stars and Lonzo in the team now, so we are not actually lacking much talent. If Zach keeps improving his game with the new team and takes us to the playoffs, then it’s a completely different scenario and offering him the max would probably be the best option for the Bulls.

BTW, Zach stated in an interview that "I want what I deserve, whatever that is" so maybe he would be flexible with his contract after an (unlikely) unsuccessful season.

to be clear, what he deserves and what he'll get are very different concepts. but plenty of less-than-max-worthy players have gotten the max, including players on bad teams. and part of that is that bad teams still need to sell tickets

if the bulls fail this season (and that includes just squeaking into the playoffs/getting blown off the floor in round 1), my bet is that zach lavine will not get much of the blame. he never has

Just out of interest, who are these less-than-max-worthy players who got the max you are thinking about? Trying to come up with someone in a similar kind of situation with Zach.

there are no current examples of somebody specifically at zach's stage of career with complete lack of team success. but there are similar caliber players like john wall, beal, tobias harris, mccollum, porzingas, ingram, russell, booker and fox who were either younger with little team success or in the same age range with modest team success. and not a single one of them was coming off an elite scoring season

[FanInTheAttic]

We could also ask when was the last time a player got maxed out who has never seen the playoffs during 8 seasons in the NBA, and playing the last one with two other all-stars?

What an arbitrary metric and up grading DeMarr to All-Star status is really something since he hasn't made it since he was a Raptor. But All-Status in 2018 is definitely relative to this extension discussion. Man, if only the Bulls could sign Andre Drummond and have another "all star" to pair with Zach.

Devin Booker got maxed out after three seasons where the Suns had gone 68-178.

Zach signing the max with the Bulls would mean his annual average value would be in the same ballpark with Trae's and Luka's rookie supermax deals.

Well Zach is better than Trae so that would be pretty unsurprising to me. If Zach puts up the exact same numbers as last season he deserves and will get the max no matter what the team does around him. Just as Devin Booker did despite being on a losing horrific team. Just as Trae would have even if they won one less game last season and got demolished by the Bucks in the first round instead of getting a favorable bracket.

Okay I admit talking about DeMar as an all-star player is a stretch, but he is the highest paid player in the Bulls team next season and put up good numbers last season with the Spurs, numbers that are not so far from his last all-star year.

Suns offer to Booker was questionable at the time, but he signed a rookie max and apparently they knew what they were doing.

How is Zach a better player than Trae ? If you look at their career and last season PER and WS numbers Trae is slightly better. Zach is more efficient in scoring, but they also have a bit different roles. Trae signed a rookie-max after a successful playoff run, so it is not exactly the same situation we are speculating here with Zach.

Personally I don't enjoy Trae's style of playing.

All I'm saying about Zach's FA situation next year is that I wouldn't take the max offer for granted, this is a year when Zach really has to show what he is worth.

[sco]

Saw this:

https://clutchpoints.com/bulls-news-chicago-star-zach-lavine-receives-high-praise-from-kyle-lowry/

[gf2020hotmail]

Trae signed a rookie-max after a successful playoff run, so it is not exactly the same situation we are speculating here with Zach.

Trae was getting that deal even if the Hawks didn't make the playoffs and it was the same situation. That's the whole point. That's why Booker got his deal. That's why even someone like Wiggins got his deal.

All I'm saying about Zach's FA situation next year is that I wouldn't take the max offer for granted, this is a year when Zach really has to show what he is worth.

That's just not how it works once you've established this level of play. His individual performance matters so much more than team success which he only has so much control over.

[FanInTheAttic]

Trae signed a rookie-max after a successful playoff run, so it is not exactly the same situation we are speculating here with Zach.

Trae was getting that deal even if the Hawks didn't make the playoffs and it was the same situation. That's the whole point. That's why Booker got his deal. That's why even someone like Wiggins got his deal.

All I'm saying about Zach's FA situation next year is that I wouldn't take the max offer for granted, this is a year when Zach really has to show what he is worth.

That's just not how it works once you've established this level of play. His individual performance matters so much more than team success which he only has so much control over.

Ok, Wiggins is a good bad example, don't know what they were thinking back then when he got his deal But it was also a rookie extension, like Trae's and Booker's, so a bit different than what Zach's situation looks like next offseason.

But you seem pretty confident about this and make a good point, so you might be right and Zach gets the max no matter what happens next season. I'm just still waiting if his statistical output can translate in to team success, but maybe the league isn't. If he would be on his 3rd year putting out stats like last season, it would be a no brainer.

[Stratmaster]

I updated my original post to reflect that the Pistons recently chose to eat up for $7 or $8 million of their cap space for next season by taking on DeAndre Jordan's contract at a slightly reduced figure after buyout. They will still have max space barely even if they land the number one pick again but it is a move that shows their mindset isn't really about competing in 22-23 or going after multiple players in free agency. If they were, they probably wouldn't do something like this and eat up cap space for literally nothing other than second rounders.

Of the very minor concerns I have in terms of Zach's market, Memphis is the one I think he'd be most tempted most by because they've made the playoffs recently and have a genuine star in Ja to pair him with. And Memphis, unlike a lot of other teams in their position, are making step back moves this off-season to have more room next off-season. All of their recent moves have essentially been about keeping a max slot open (trading Grayson Allen, dumping Bledsoe's small 22 guarantee for expiring contracts) when no other team is operating like that really.

So I am really hoping Jarrett Culver balls out in camp and in their first few games and forces them to pick up his option or Jaren Jackson has a great year, making his extension negotiations more difficult and unlikely to resolve quickly in free agency. Either of those occurring would basically remove them from the max cap space market.

I appreciate your original post and the follow up and your are right looks like Zach's options are going to be limited next offseason. But it only takes one viable option and the Grizzlies sure look like it could be tempting. But it really depends on the next season, if everything goes according to AKME's plans, we don't have to worry about Zach leaving.

The only words you needed from that post were the last 8 words.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[dice]

Trae signed a rookie-max after a successful playoff run, so it is not exactly the same situation we are speculating here with Zach.

Trae was getting that deal even if the Hawks didn't make the playoffs and it was the same situation. That's the whole point. That's why Booker got his deal. That's why even someone like Wiggins got his deal.

All I'm saying about Zach's FA situation next year is that I wouldn't take the max offer for granted, this is a year when Zach really has to show what he is worth.

That's just not how it works once you've established this level of play. His individual performance matters so much more than team success which he only has so much control over.

Ok, Wiggins is a good bad example, don't know what they were thinking back then when he got his deal But it was also a rookie extension, like Trae's and Booker's, so a bit different than what Zach's situation looks like next offseason.

But you seem pretty confident about this and make a good point, so you might be right and Zach gets the max no matter what happens next season. I'm just still waiting if his statistical output can translate in to team success, but maybe the league isn't. If he would be on his 3rd year putting out stats like last season, it would be a no brainer.

max salaries lavine will be eligible for:

5 years, 207 mil (41.4 per) - stays with bulls
4 years, 154 mil (38.5 per) - goes elsewhere

if the bulls have a disappointing season but lavine puts up similar numbers, the fallout for lavine would probably only be that no team would be willing to sign and trade for him at the 5 year max. and the fanbase might be reluctant for the team to give him the full 5 year max. but is, say, a 5 year, $150 mil deal a possibility? i'd be amazed. he's not gonna take that level of pay cut, and some other team will figure out a way to give him the 4/$154 max

5/$159? no chance

5/173? that's a deal starting at 25% of cap rather than 30% with the same increases year over year...and still probably wishful thinking if you're looking to see lavine sign at a discount

[gf2020hotmail]

Memphis is the real threat I agree. They have a group that will work with his prime too. It works for Memphis too because then they likely keep Ja happy. Always been a hard working culture there which Zach likes. Market though is not great and we 100% have the edge on that and I think that is a pretty big factor especially all other things being equal.

It does make a lot of sense if Zach prioritizes winning over all else but still can't see it the end even beyond the market.

-Ja isn't the ideal superstar for Zach to pair with. While he can spot up, Zach likes to play with the ball in his hands and obviously he would be doing that a lot less next to Ja. It would also be undeniably Ja's team, which might be tough for Zach to swallow given he's older than Ja and made an all star team and been on the Olympic team.
-I am not sure how much better Memphis will be than the Bulls next season. Their over-under is about the same as the Bulls and they downgraded their center for next season.

But Zach and his agency can't assume they'll walk into a max deal with Chicago and they need a plausible source of leverage next off-season so I expect they will at least feign interest to keep the Bulls FO in line.

As a side note, I am really interested in how Jaren Jackson plays next season as he is in the John Collins and Lauri Markkanen situation from last year. He's been injury prone, shot poorly from three last year and was a big minus defensively even though the theory of him on that end makes sense. A lot of their future is contingent of him being part of a future big three with Ja. But he's never been as good as John Collins and if he has a Lauri type year of inconsistency, it really puts them in a bind on what to do moving forward.

[Michael Jackson]

Memphis is the real threat I agree. They have a group that will work with his prime too. It works for Memphis too because then they likely keep Ja happy. Always been a hard working culture there which Zach likes. Market though is not great and we 100% have the edge on that and I think that is a pretty big factor especially all other things being equal.

It does make a lot of sense if Zach prioritizes winning over all else but still can't see it the end even beyond the market.

-Ja isn't the ideal superstar for Zach to pair with. While he can spot up, Zach likes to play with the ball in his hands and obviously he would be doing that a lot less next to Ja. It would also be undeniably Ja's team, which might be tough for Zach to swallow given he's older than Ja and made an all star team and been on the Olympic team.
-I am not sure how much better Memphis will be than the Bulls next season. Their over-under is about the same as the Bulls and they downgraded their center for next season.

But Zach and his agency can't assume they'll walk into a max deal with Chicago and they need a plausible source of leverage next off-season so I expect they will at least feign interest to keep the Bulls FO in line.

As a side note, I am really interested in how Jaren Jackson plays next season as he is in the John Collins and Lauri Markkanen situation from last year. He's been injury prone, shot poorly from three last year and was a big minus defensively even though the theory of him on that end makes sense. A lot of their future is contingent of him being part of a future big three with Ja. But he's never been as good as John Collins and if he has a Lauri type year of inconsistency, it really puts them in a bind on what to do moving forward.

Yeah I was a big JJJ fan but he has been unable to stay healthy and reach potential. That will be interesting. Really the thing Memphis has over the Bulls is “potential” timeline as their players are younger and there is a longer window. That and they seem to be a good organization, which happens to be in a much smaller market which hurts them. I say potential window though because as noted we are not sure how those pieces play out for Memphis yet, and AK has shown he is crafty and could be very capable of retooling theoretically. I do agree though Zach being the man in a bigger market is a big chip in the Bulls favor.

[Jcool0]

This is why he is with Klutch

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[DuckIII]

If I was not a Bulls fan I would be rooting hard for Zach to Memphis. That would be a ridiculously exciting team to watch. Wow.

[Jcool0]

If I was not a Bulls fan I would be rooting hard for Zach to Memphis. That would be a ridiculously exciting team to watch. Wow.

Players who can sign max deals don't go to Memphis.