Bulls Top Stars Have Had Limited Team Success

[old skool]

Many Bulls fans are disappointed with pre-season predictions for the team. Even though the recent GM poll had the Bulls as the most improved team for 2021-22, most national Power Ranking and W/L forecasts have the Bulls middle of the road at best.

I think part of the explanation for this is that the Bulls stars have not had much team success in recent years. In the last three seasons the Bulls three highest paid players, DeRozan, Vučević and LaVine, have collectively made the playoffs only 3 times and have played in a total of only 17 playoff games. There are 11 teams in the East whose 3 highest paid players have made more playoff appearances in the last three seasons. When it comes to playoff games played, which is arguably a better indicator of team success, every Eastern Conference team except Cleveland has more combined playoff games played by their top three highest paid players over the last three seasons. (See the entire list below)

The Bulls have added talent, but not talent that has led to much winning. The lack of playoff appearances and lack of wins in the playoffs might explain why fans and pundits don't view the Bulls as a top team in the East.

Eastern Conference
Last 3 Seasons - 3 Highest Paid Players on Current Roster
Combined Playoff Appearances; (Combined Playoff Games Won)

PHI - 8; (78)
MIL - 7; (116)
MIA - 7; (75)
BKN - 7; (74)
BOS - 7; (70)
TOR - 6; (91)
ATL - 6; (78)
NYK - 5; (25)
ORL - 4; (38)
IND - 4; (30)
WAS - 4; (19)
DET - 3; (41)
CHA - 3; (23)
CHI - 3; (17)
CLE - 3; (14)

[gardenofsound]

I'm not worried about the predictions. I think that chip on their shoulder is a good thing.

I think what all of these pundits are forgetting is that the only guy on this team that has had a decent team around him... at any point in his career... is DeRozan. And the "last 3 seasons" is kind of arbitrary considering that DeRozan was on the Spurs who have been in a state of flux during that time.

This is the first time that LaVine and Vucevic will be playing with a strong team around them that will really force defenses to spread their attention. This also translates to more energy to spend on the defensive end.

All of these guys know that the media and fans are calling them "guys that don't know how to win" and they seem very hungry to prove them wrong.

[dougthonus]

I agree that the results are part of the reason people feel this way about the Bulls. You can add Lonzo in there as another guy that hasn't really achieved anything on a team level. Even played a season with LeBron and still missed the playoffs.

On an individual basis, you can figure out why this is the case for may different reasons and debate how concerning it is:
Lonzo/LaVine - Both young and have improved considerably over time
Vucevic - Has had very little talent around him
DeRozan - Kinda feels like the Spurs overachieved recently, and he had good success as the #1 previously on the Raptors in a bigger role

So while I think there isn't 0 concern here, I think the fact that all of these guys have some combination of significant individual improvement over the period of time their results were poor (LaVine/Lonzo), are now playing with better talent than ever in their careers (Maybe all of them?), or are now asked to be in a smaller role (Vuc / DeRozan) than in the past mitigates this concern.

[meekrab]

There's a saying, "Nobody ever wins anything until they win something." Or maybe I just made that up. But in any case, guys come into the league super young these days and often the high picks go to teams and organizations that are, lets say, terrible.

DeMar was drafted by Bryan Coleangelo who largely seems to have forgotten his basketball managerial talent in Phoenix (look at the pile of crap he got in exchange for Hinkie's war chest in Philly), then a competent front office took over and the Raptors instantly became a regular playoff team, then he got traded to the Spurs who really should have been tanking the last few years after their dynasty guys retired, and had to learn to run the offense with a bunch of rookies and the corpses of Rudy Gay and Lamarcus Aldridge, and he pulled those rosters kicking and screaming to the postseason and play-in positions.

Vuc has been mired in Orlando his whole career enduring a decade-long refusal to properly build a competitive roster. Those mid-10s Orlando rosters look a lot like what the Bulls were when AKME took over, rosters with one good player and a bunch of spare parts who should really be bench players pressed into starting roles. They gave big contracts to guys like Biyombo and Fournier who never really deserved them and wound up holding the bag on Mozgov's ridiculous Summer of 2016 Lakers deal. Just a complete lack of any sort of managerial acumen his whole time there.

Lonzo was drafted with a broken jump shot and the most hype of any rookie since Ben Simmons and given development / entitlement minutes on a team where the other starters were 20, 22, 24, and 29 years old, and then the next year the roster got half-LeBron'd with washed up vets like Lance, Rondo and Javale, his role completely changed, and they were over .500 and looking like a playoff team before he sprained his ankle and missed the rest of the season. Then of course he got dealt to NOLA which is a dumpster fire of a franchise, but if you look at the things he can control, he's improved every year.

Basketball's a team and organization sport, even LeBron doesn't win games alone.

[MrSparkle]

Always funny to me how UNDERRATED the 5-15 of a roster can be.

Sure, the superstar is essential to winning chips... but 05 Kobe Lakers, 18 Lebron Lakers, 04-06 KG Wolves... The Curry Warriors of the past 2 years... the pre-Big 3 Pierce Celtics... Wade would've been a career 1st round or lotto loser had Riley not worked his FO magic. These are concrete examples of MVP players losing tons of games because of their pitiful teams.

Even the 02 Wizards. I know MJ wasn't MVP material anymore, but he was trying his ass off with Stackhouse but they just couldn't carry Laettner, Kwame and Hughes (not to mention the rest) to #8 in the **** East.

Similarly those 17 Bulls were a mess even though Jimmy was playing out of his mind. It was a team with about 3 guys consistently playing at an average NBA level (and that's being generous, in regards to RoLo, Wade and Rondo).

Rule of thumb is sub-24yos with the keys lose a lot of games. Once they hit years 4-6, they're ready to win some games. But they still need a deep roster to work with - i.e. Booker and the Suns. If your 6th man is a 2nd round rookie (Pritchard) or some kind of vet. min. or MLE wash-up, then you aren't winning anything even if your best player is Giannis.

But if you have about 10+ kids on the roster (or 33+ year olds, the reverse issue where athleticism/defensive effort is gone in exchange for IQ), you can bet even Lebron or Kawhi are gonna lose games and give up on their season.

What ends up happening regularly:

"Beal is an empty stat stuffer!"
"Trade Zach for a #7 pick and expirings!"
"DeRozan is a negative player!"
"Vucevic was a horrible trade!" (even though he cost a bunch of B and C assets, if not F if Wendell ends up seeking a $15m extension)
"Westbrook is a blackhole!"

Even worse, they somehow get approximated to actually overpaid, empty calorie duds like Lauri and Wiggins.. or worst yet, guys who just don't stay healthy at all (Otto, Wall), and actually ruin a team's cap sheet for years.

We didn't create the Dream Team here, but we did get 4 guys in their young and old prime windows (Vuc and Derozan aren't cooked yet, Zach is right in it, Lonzo just entered his most confident year), and all have all-star caliber skills. Important to note they're not superstars or perennial all-stars, but they're of that caliber. So of course if Lebron and Kobe couldn't carry bad Lakers teams to post-seasons, then neither could these guys.

But that doesn't mean they were the cause of their limited success. You can blame ACLs (Zach, DD's teammate Murray, Vuc's teammates Isaac/Fultz), tons of youth, and/or bad GMing for most their woes.

Also, the PPG don't tell the story, but Zach HAS improved about 100% in intangibles and efficiency. Demar improved massively as a passer. Honestly if you put this team together 4 years ago, it would've sucked because there'd be 2 black holes. More importantly, AKME and Donovan filled out this 5-15 with prime scrappy athletes, something that all losers lack (inc. the "stacked" 15/16 HoiBulls).

[fleet]

Neither did Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, and Chauncey Billups have much success before they assembled

[bigfacedolla]

They'll roll thru low-powered teams but struggled vs the rest. Good group of all-non-defense team outside of zo

[nomorezorro]

i think part of the reason why this happened is because we have weird players with weird development curves. it was debatable whether our most important players were even good nba players for the first chunks of their careers.

zach hasn't conclusively been a meaningful positive impact player until the last couple of years. he wasn't definitively "good" until year six, and he didn't truly break out until year seven.

demar wasn't really conclusively a meaningful positive impact player until his seventh year in the league, then he had a nice little run in toronto that included an ecf appearance. then he kind of reinvented himself on a retooling san antonio team that wasn't really complementary to his skills, arguably putting up the best year of his career at age 31.

vucevic had a breakout year in his eighth season in the league and only added a floor-stretching high-volume 3pt shot in the past couple of seasons (tallying career highs in volume and accuracy just last season).

lonzo is hopefully on a similar curve, albeit ideally not quite as slow as those other guys. he kind of sucked his first two years, was mediocre his third year and got to "flawed role player who's useful in the right situation" in year four.

they've all already made a jump, but they did it later than usual and they were still a few cuts below the true top-tier players. the hope is that by surrounding them with talent and other complementary players, the flaws are further muted and the strengths are accentuated. i think it's pretty possible!

[tindogg]

They will also have trouble when the game slows to a grind, if, and that's a big iffff, they make the playoffs, on paper they have the talent, but what will the grind it out half court offense look when they have to take the ball out of their own bucket each time to start the offense!??

[bigfacedolla]

After the 55th missed defensive assignment, zo will give a dispirited look at zach, who will look at demar, who will look at vooch, who will look at coby white...and then they'll all shrug their shoulders and donovan will sigh and say "ok DJJ, warm up"

[cool007]

They'll roll thru low-powered teams but struggled vs the rest. Good group of all-non-defense team outside of zo

Lol, did you just sign up so you can post that nonsense?

Anyway, I get why the media and even other teams fans are kind of skeptical and I have no problem with that.

Bulls just have to prove it and I am damn sure that they will. I rather them having lower expectations and exceed them and surprise a ton than have higher expectations and not meet them or disappoint.

I bet that 2010/11 Rose led team at preseason wasn't high on anyone's radar either but that team had the best record in the NBA that year. I really want that kind of feeling back this season.

[RSP83]

For some reason many people are reluctant to give DD the credit he deserved. Many talk as if he was only role player level contributor on that Raptors team's success. Many are also quick to point out that he's a poor playoff performer. But that shouldn't erase the good work that he's done with the Raptors. If I'm not wrong, he's had more success than Carter or Bosh in leading that franchise. And no, I don't think Lowry would've been as successful without DD. I was not a fan of DD, I doubted him since his HS days, he played for Master P's AAU team with Lil' Romeo. He had a lot of hype being in that circle, and he was meh in USC. But he's really been working on his game since he entered the league. And I have a lot of respect for him now, since he lead that Raptors team to winning records.

As for Vuc and Zach, I think they got mis-categorized as empty stats stuffer. While I think they've always just been good players with noticable flaws. Because they happened to be the best player on their team, they're just sort of expected to step into that franchise player role. But their team have never been that good, and they're not superstar franchise players that can turn a team around on their own. Just like DD, but DD played with better teammates and had much better FO.

I had the same feeling when Celtics Big-3 was put together. I thought KG, Pierce, and Allen should have a chance to play for a winning team. KG had some success in Wolves (went to WCF won MVP), but after that WCF year his Wolves was a treadmill team. Pierce got to ECF once with Walker, but after that his Celtics team was really bad, Allen had success early in Milwaukee playing for George Karl with Big Dog, Vin Baker, Sam Cassell. But when he was traded to Seattle and featured as franchise player, he only managed to get Sonics to the playoff only once. Obviously Vuc, DD, and Zach are not KG, Pierce, and Allen, but the point is even HoF players on a bad team can look like career losers. I don't think Pierce or Allen would do better than Zach if they had to play for the Bulls prior to this year. Same if they trade place with Vuc in Orlando. KG would have more success, but he still wouldn't be good enough to get Bulls or Magic over the hump.

[bigfacedolla]

They'll roll thru low-powered teams but struggled vs the rest. Good group of all-non-defense team outside of zo

Lol, did you just sign up so you can post that nonsense?

Anyway, I get why the media and even other teams fans are kind of skeptical and I have no problem with that.

Bulls just have to prove it and I am damn sure that they will. I rather them having lower expectations and exceed them and surprise a ton than have higher expectations and not meet them or disappoint.

I bet that 2010/11 Rose led team at preseason wasn't high on anyone's radar either but that team had the best record in the NBA that year. I really want that kind of feeling back this season.

Ha. I'm an old-school bulls fan and I value defensive effort. I respect what each player brings but I feel roster construction could've been better structured, and dollars better spent. Guys don't turn into defensive-minded beasts overnight. Zach's gotta score. Demar's game is better suited to the 80s/90s. Vooch is slow-footed. Zo is injury prone. Just because these facts ain't great don't make 'em false. D-rose was a superstar (and youngest ever MVP). Let's not confuse him with zach just yet. I want to see bulls succeed but this roster just is not built for when the games really count vs the elites.

[kodo]

They will also have trouble when the game slows to a grind, if, and that's a big iffff, they make the playoffs, on paper they have the talent, but what will the grind it out half court offense look when they have to take the ball out of their own bucket each time to start the offense!??

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[WookieOnRitalin]

Neither did Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, and Chauncey Billups have much success before they assembled

This was the epitome of the adage "lightning in a bottle" because never has there been since 1980 a team that has managed to win an NBA championship without at least one top 10 player.

The '04 Pistons were something else and me thinks I shall never set my eyes upon such a team again.

................................


As to the topic at hand. This is my issue with this roster as assembled. I see marshmallows. Guys who do not know how to win especially in the playoffs.

This makes me skeptical of positive outcomes even if and when they do reach the postseason. Maybe AKME and BD see something I do not. Perhaps the puzzle pieces fit in a way that will take us all by surprise. In a soft East, anything can happen. ****, I remember watching the 8th seeded Knicks find their way to the NBA finals.

My main point is that this group as a lot to prove to everyone, especially this fan base and that "proof" cannot be fully realized until they win a playoff series. Any barometer less than that just goes to show you how Bulls fans are disconnected from reality.

The '04-'05 Bulls won 47 games with Scott Skiles for crying out loud. Nice team of hard working guys, but never had the talent to be successful in the playoffs which is ultimately the measure of a good team.

Bonus Fact:
That '04-'05 Bulls team was the 4th best scoring team in the playoffs that year. Now mind you they only played 6 games, but none the less a fun fact. More interesting is that the Finals that year was duked out by the 9th and 13th best scoring teams (SAS vs DET).

This was about when the tide began to turn back to making the game more high scoring. The Indiana Pacers who played 13 games in those playoffs (6-7) averaged only 84 ppg.

My my how it was a different time.

[Michael Jackson]

After the 55th missed defensive assignment, zo will give a dispirited look at zach, who will look at demar, who will look at vooch, who will look at coby white...and then they'll all shrug their shoulders and donovan will sigh and say "ok DJJ, warm up"

Everything is yet to be proven with this team yet for sure. Last night things clicked though and everyone was hustling on defense, which admittedly is way way easier when a game goes the way it did last night. When everything is easy the effort is there. Still, the defense looked to have a lot of hustle, which is a Donovan thing, I mean the Florida championships were based off of that. I don’t expect it to look like last night but there is reason to believe that this team has read all the press clippings about how bad their defense is and will play with a chip in their shoulder. If nothing else AC will lead by example on how to be a dog on d. If it pays off like it did last night the team will buy into it.

[AKfanatic]

They will also have trouble when the game slows to a grind, if, and that's a big iffff, they make the playoffs, on paper they have the talent, but what will the grind it out half court offense look when they have to take the ball out of their own bucket each time to start the offense!??

We’re weeks away from the start of the season, so predicting how this team would look in the playoffs is a bit premature……

That said, if the Bulls do make the playoffs it’s a good assumption that they’ve built a decent chemistry to have accomplished that, and given the make-up of the starters, finding half-court offense shouldn’t be a massive struggle.

The Bulls have multiple guys that can find their own shot, guys that can score at all three levels on the court (post, mid, arc), and multiple guys that can stretch the floor. With a full season of chemistry, finding ways to score in the half-court is low on the “things to be worried about” list for this team.

[Michael Jackson]

Being ranked low can be a great thing as all these guys have something prove. Hopefully that helps them keep focus and they don’t just fold when the heat is turned up. As mentioned none of them have been in the greatest situations for success with really only DDR being close to it. It is now or never time for them though. Not saying championship now or never, but this “team” has to prove something this year.

[SHO'NUFF]

After the 55th missed defensive assignment, zo will give a dispirited look at zach, who will look at demar, who will look at vooch, who will look at coby white...and then they'll all shrug their shoulders and donovan will sigh and say "ok DJJ, warm up"

Nick Friedell you’re not fooling anyone.

[DuckIII]

The most illogically overrated high volume NBA argument is the reliance on team success to determine individual quality.

I could make a borderline dynasty out of players on mediocre-to-bad teams.