The "Debate How Vuc's Thread Should be Titled" Thread

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Confirmed: head out of rear end

I need a bit more than four games for confirmation, but it's been a great sign that he's been really good for the past four games and my level of concern has dropped considerably.

never really understood your point of view. he's been playing good basketball all season besides missing open shots. naturally, making shots is the most important thing an nba player can do, but all these players who have been consistently good are beginning to turn a corner...ie harden, lillard, tatum. was only a matter of time because none of these guys have actually looked like they've regressed... they've just missed shots they usually make. my thinking is they're just getting used to the "new ball". maybe that's a copout but seems to be the only consistency among them.

[dougthonus]

never really understood your point of view. he's been playing good basketball all season besides missing open shots. naturally, making shots is the most important thing an nba player can do, but all these players who have been consistently good are beginning to turn a corner...ie harden, lillard, tatum. was only a matter of time because none of these guys have actually looked like they've regressed... they've just missed shots they usually make. my thinking is they're just getting used to the "new ball". maybe that's a copout but seems to be the only consistency among them.

Well there are a few things to dissect:
1: Why am I going to wait and see a bit on Vuc? - Because he's been bad for a really long time, so I want to see him show this level of performance for awhile too. That said, I've said on my podcast (and the BRB) that I generally think what he's done the last four games is sustainable for him, and even in the quote above, I said I need "a bit more" not like 20 more games, and that my level of concern dropped considerably. I'm probably 60% confident he'll stay on roughly this path the rest of the season more or less and it won't take too much more to get me to higher confidence.

2: Why do I not like Vuc in general, even at this performance? - For his career, ignoring this season which was really poor early on, but for his whole previous career, he was a below league average efficiency player at a position that typically is way above league average in efficiency while also being a poor defender at a position that anchors your defense. That is a combination that I don't think is really good even with the extra passing and basketball IQ he brings, and I don't think it's a surprise that his teams have never been all that successful.

3: Why would I not have done this trade even today and even if he can generally sustain the last four games worth of performance? - I think you could take those same assets you got back for him and move them for Sabonis right now, whom is a better player IMO and certainly would give us a longer timeline to compete and build a team with, and still think it was an overpay, a big part of that is still my belief in #2 which is something that most people don't think.

That said, I'm obviously rooting for Vuc to continue to do well. His situation is easier than it has ever been in his career, what would change my opinion (and is entirely possible and reasonable) is if his efficiency would tick way up over the league average based on the open looks that he gets. If he became a 60% TS% player then I would view him very differently.

I'm super happy he's back around his career numbers for the past four games even if I'm not a huge fan even at that level of performance relative to the package we gave up. That's a sunk cost at this point. Vuc playing at this level is a big boost relative to his previous performance this season and feels like something he should be able to maintain.

[sco]

never really understood your point of view. he's been playing good basketball all season besides missing open shots. naturally, making shots is the most important thing an nba player can do, but all these players who have been consistently good are beginning to turn a corner...ie harden, lillard, tatum. was only a matter of time because none of these guys have actually looked like they've regressed... they've just missed shots they usually make. my thinking is they're just getting used to the "new ball". maybe that's a copout but seems to be the only consistency among them.

Well there are a few things to dissect:
1: Why am I going to wait and see a bit on Vuc? - Because he's been bad for a really long time, so I want to see him show this level of performance for awhile too. That said, I've said on my podcast (and the BRB) that I generally think what he's done the last four games is sustainable for him, and even in the quote above, I said I need "a bit more" not like 20 more games, and that my level of concern dropped considerably. I'm probably 60% confident he'll stay on roughly this path the rest of the season more or less and it won't take too much more to get me to higher confidence.

2: Why do I not like Vuc in general, even at this performance? - For his career, ignoring this season which was really poor early on, but for his whole previous career, he was a below league average efficiency player at a position that typically is way above league average in efficiency while also being a poor defender at a position that anchors your defense. That is a combination that I don't think is really good even with the extra passing and basketball IQ he brings, and I don't think it's a surprise that his teams have never been all that successful.

3: Why would I not have done this trade even today and even if he can generally sustain the last four games worth of performance? - I think you could take those same assets you got back for him and move them for Sabonis right now, whom is a better player IMO and certainly would give us a longer timeline to compete and build a team with, and still think it was an overpay, a big part of that is still my belief in #2 which is something that most people don't think.

That said, I'm obviously rooting for Vuc to continue to do well. His situation is easier than it has ever been in his career, what would change my opinion (and is entirely possible and reasonable) is if his efficiency would tick way up over the league average based on the open looks that he gets. If he became a 60% TS% player then I would view him very differently.

I'm super happy he's back around his career numbers for the past four games even if I'm not a huge fan even at that level of performance relative to the package we gave up. That's a sunk cost at this point. Vuc playing at this level is a big boost relative to his previous performance this season and feels like something he should be able to maintain.

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

“One thing that when I spoke to Billy that has stuck out and helped me is he knew I was frustrated with shooting the ball and he was like obviously as a player you want to shoot the ball well,” Vucevic said, “but his main thing was I shouldn’t let that affect the rest of my game.’’

[dougthonus]

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

[MGB8]

I don't think that Vuc is consistently going to put up around 20/15... but I do think that 17-18 and 11-12 plus 3-4 assists and decent defense is not unreasonable. Slightly higher rebounding and slightly lower scoring than his career levels just because of role on this team.

My hope is that what the last few games have shown is that the shooting struggles that characterized the bulk of the first quarter of the season where in fact some combination of off-season rust, impact of a different ball, maybe some unknown shoulder tightness*, and while he won't always be red-hot, he's not going to be ice-cold nearly as often.

* speculation re shoulder re Coldfish's point of a varying release point and him too often releasing too-low - shoulder tightness/issues in ROM can cause that, especially if it's inflammation related.

[dougthonus]

I don't think that Vuc is consistently going to put up around 20/15... but I do think that 17-18 and 11-12 plus 3-4 assists and decent defense is not unreasonable. Slightly higher rebounding and slightly lower scoring than his career levels just because of role on this team.

I don't care too much about the counting stats with Vuc, especially since he's not really a great shot creator. I'd love him to have something closer to Lonzo Ball's shot profile. Half of his shots being three point attempts and getting his three point rate up to 40%, eliminate a lot of the mid range junk, pass the hell out of the ball, and take advantage of switches, mismatches, or broken defense to get shots close to the basket when available.

15 points, whatever rebounds, and 5 assists on 60% TS% would be the Vuc profile that feels reasonable to me that would make the Bulls impossible to guard.

[MGB8]

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

One interesting thing about Vuc is that when he came into the league, in Philly, he actually looked like this bouncy, aggressive, good defender (though wasn't particularly a smart defender as a rookie, and lacked the needed bulk). Being a local, Sixers are more or less my "2nd team" and I was saddened when they moved him - I thought he had talent. When he came back against the Sixers the following year, I seem to remember he had a good game (especially defensively) and kind of validated my thoughts - though that's from a long time ago, I haven't gone back to check the game logs from that year so could completely be an impression exaggerated with time or a mistaken memory, transplanted from another year / game / etc.

More or less forgot about Vuc after that, though. Orlando just hasn't been relevant, and then they tried to run their offense without a real PG for years... dumped Tobias Harris despite the talent, Ibaka debacle... even running Aaron Gordon as a quasi-PG SF (as opposed to a role playing, 3 & D plus PF).

Anyway, without nearly as much need for Vuc to create, and with a roster around him that isn't just more talented but also a massively better fit (more guys who can shoot, more creators)... maybe that was one of the things that was limiting him on defense in Orlando. Or maybe it was just poor defensive scheme and poor guard defensive execution (with the exception of Fultz when he is healthy... where Elfrid Payton was an overrated defender).

[MGB8]

I don't think that Vuc is consistently going to put up around 20/15... but I do think that 17-18 and 11-12 plus 3-4 assists and decent defense is not unreasonable. Slightly higher rebounding and slightly lower scoring than his career levels just because of role on this team.

I don't care too much about the counting stats with Vuc, especially since he's not really a great shot creator. I'd love him to have something closer to Lonzo Ball's shot profile. Half of his shots being three point attempts and getting his three point rate up to 40%, eliminate a lot of the mid range junk, pass the hell out of the ball, and take advantage of switches, mismatches, or broken defense to get shots close to the basket when available.

15 points, whatever rebounds, and 5 assists on 60% TS% would be the Vuc profile that feels reasonable to me that would make the Bulls impossible to guard.

That would be fantastic. I guess my bigger point was that what I'm really hoping for is that Vuc's struggles this first quarter where just some combination of "coincidental" factors - and not primarily or even secondarily age-related decline.

If Vuc can stay at the more or less the same athletic level he was the past 3 years or so*, then I think just his baseline play from before is likely to get something close to what you or I are talking about, give or take a bit in efficiency and bulk stats (anywhere from ~15-18 pts, 11-13+ rebounds, ~4-5+ assists, high 50s to even 60 or marginally above TS, and solid enough defense).

* where such non-decline is not an unreasonable possibility, since for many guys the difference between 28 and 32-33 athletically isn't a whole lot - with recovery time and quick twitch starting to noticeably decline more in the mid-30's than early 30s, but it's so individualized and varied between people exactly when those declines start happening that I was fearing the worst...

[kodo]

I think another factor in Vuc getting back to form is he's not concerning himself with being a Joker type primary playmaker as much and just instinctually going for his shot. There's a lot less catch, hesitate, scan the floor, decide to score, then make your move type of lag. He's catching and going right into his shot smoothly, more like ORL and less trying to be this year's Thad Young.

Last 10 games: 19.3 ppg & 2.9 apg (44% FG 45% 3P)
First 10 games: 13.2 ppg & 4.3 apg (37% FG 26% 3P)

Considering you need to throw twice as many assist attempts to get twice as many assists, he's reduced his passing a ton lately. At the start of the season he'd get the ball wide open at the 3 point line in his spot, and still try to two hand bullet pass to a cutter. He needs to just shoot it if it's his shot.

[WindyCityBorn]

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

I think we need closer to 18 to 20 points game from him like we have been getting recently.

[sco]

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

I think we need closer to 18 to 20 points game from him like we have been getting recently.

I think it's very very unusual for a team to have their 3rd option score 20PPG. It does happen, but it's rare. Also, IMO, it's somewhat detrimental because I think it decreases the scoring "readiness" of the other guys. I'm thinking specifically of Zo (shooting only 11 shots per game), who I want to be more aggressive in looking for his shot.

[dougthonus]

Yeah, I'm optimistic that he'll be on a higher efficiency level going forward. For whatever reason (I'll just say some combo of ref changes in calling fouls and new ball for simplicity, but I don't know), a lot of guys are shooting way below their historic averages this season, but it isn't universal so it seem muted in the stats.

The COVID break for Vuc seems to have allowed him to get extra work in on his shooting. It was apparent to me (and many others) that he was rushing his shots in the paint and not shooting 3's in rhythm.

If he is able to keep this level, I will give him a ton of credit, because many guys continue to struggle. Also, Billy deserves a lot of credit for getting predominantly offensive players focus on aspects of the game other than scoring, as a core part of our culture. In Vuc's case, it's super important because he's essentially gone from a #1 to a #3 scoring option (which he was last season for us because Zach was out most of their time together), and is much more of a playmaker now.

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

I think we need closer to 18 to 20 points game from him like we have been getting recently.

I don't worry about the counting stats, just how well he's playing. Vuc with 20 points on 20 possessions isn't helping all that much really. Maybe if he's getting a lot of those shots up with Zach/DeMar resting or early in the game to keep those guys fresh it helps ease the offensive burden on them, or maybe if it opens things up for other guys, but if I were defending a team, I'd be content to let the opposing center throw up 20 shots to get 20 points without reacting strongly towards it.

If he can get 20 points on 15 possessions, well, now we're talking about something.

[WindyCityBorn]

One other positive thing I will say about Vuc is I significantly underrated his passing. I thought he was a decent passer, but he's really a great passer, and in our offense that is bringing more value than I gave credit for.

I think Vuc would probably be best on the Bulls taking predominantly open 3s, shots inside 5 feet, and passing the hell out of the ball. If he scored 14 a game on 10 shots with 6-7 being 3s and the others being mismatches or broken coverage on the pick and roll and had 5 assists, that's probably how he would add the most value.

I think we need closer to 18 to 20 points game from him like we have been getting recently.

I think it's very very unusual for a team to have their 3rd option score 20PPG. It does happen, but it's rare. Also, IMO, it's somewhat detrimental because I think it decreases the scoring "readiness" of the other guys. I'm thinking specifically of Zo (shooting only 11 shots per game), who I want to be more aggressive in looking for his shot.

If we can get Ball’s scoring average up a bit that’s fine too. Also I said 18 to 20 a night. Not that he will average 20. 18 pts and 12 rebs would be ideal IMO.

[ChettheJet]

Zach - really really good
DeRozan - really really good
Vucevic - oh my god, don't look now, but this dude is worse than both Wendell Carter Jr and Franz Wagner

There are three general possibilities here for me:

1: Vuc is just off to a slow start and things will balance out. He said he always starts slow. I don't know what the hell he's doing in the off-season that he always starts slow, but he may want to rethink it, because my god man are you awful right now. I don't really need to see another quote from Vuc about how he's not worried because he knows how hard he works and knows the shots will fall eventually. Great. Now let's make it happen.

2: Vuc just isn't really that good. He's the Ron Mercer of centers and merely a stat stuffer. This wouldn't backup so far, because his efficiency is way down despite much easier looks. If he was still just stuffing stats at the same rate he has in the past, I wouldn't be batting an eye. However, maybe, for whatever reason, he's just not good around other talented players. Maybe he can only be efficient when he is the focal point and touches the ball constantly and can't play with efficiency without massive volume that won't exist on a great team.

3: Vuc just got old really, really fast. I noted when we acquired him that the track record of centers in particular once they hit 30 is really, really bad. Everyone said Vuc's game would age well because it isn't based on athleticism, but I'd note that all of basketball is based on athleticism and as you age the less athletic guys can feel it even more because they were barely hanging on to begin with. I don't know that this is the case yet, but it's certainly a possibility.

Nothing to do about it but wait and see, but this man needs to pick up his game big time.

Here's to hoping this thread is laughable in two months and we can all make fun of my complete ridiculousness.

It seems the thread title experienced a bit of revisionist history in an attempt to whitewash the the sentiment of the original November posting

[weneeda2guard]

Appreciate AkMe being a good front office and giving a guy who avg 20 and 10 and was a all star some time to get his game together and didn't trade him for trash because his game was slumped for a couple months.

[coldfish]

I think another factor in Vuc getting back to form is he's not concerning himself with being a Joker type primary playmaker as much and just instinctually going for his shot. There's a lot less catch, hesitate, scan the floor, decide to score, then make your move type of lag. He's catching and going right into his shot smoothly, more like ORL and less trying to be this year's Thad Young.

Last 10 games: 19.3 ppg & 2.9 apg (44% FG 45% 3P)
First 10 games: 13.2 ppg & 4.3 apg (37% FG 26% 3P)

Considering you need to throw twice as many assist attempts to get twice as many assists, he's reduced his passing a ton lately. At the start of the season he'd get the ball wide open at the 3 point line in his spot, and still try to two hand bullet pass to a cutter. He needs to just shoot it if it's his shot.

At some point I should make a thread about this. The Bulls have largely switched up their offense. They are running several different sets right now. The 4 out motion offense with Vuc as a hub is largely gone.

I need to study them all but I have seen at least 3 sets:
- Lavine or Derozan around a series of screens off ball coming from the baseline to the elbow
- The double screen across the top of the key set
- A set that can end up with Vuc in the post.

I haven't seen them enough to know all of the options in each set. Regardless, in general these sets run through Lavine and Derozan and not Vucevic.

[superdave]

Vooch is holding steady and 13th in defensive rating. I have been pleasantly surprised with his defense this year.

[coldfish]

Just as a general note, Vucevic is often seen as a bad defender. In this particular system, he isn't as long as the guards fight over the picks. He does a great job staying in position and keeping his hands up, effectively creating a trap on the ball handler. We have seen countless times where the ball handler effectively throws the ball off his arms, leading to a steal.

He does a good job on the boards, which allows the Bulls to go small.
He doesn't foul, which is a good way to give up high percentage looks.

He is slow to rotate out on shooters and you couldn't switch with him. He isn't an elite defender by any stretch but he isn't a defensive liability either.

As a last comment, part of Vucevic's value is simply his contract. He is going to make $22m next year.

I certainly would want to see if this is more than just a few game hot streak, that said, if he continues to be a plus defender giving the Bulls 16, 11 and 2 on mediocre efficiency while not pounding the ball, I think he is a big positive.

[TheFinishSniper]

At some point I should make a thread about this. The Bulls have largely switched up their offense. They are running several different sets right now. The 4 out motion offense with Vuc as a hub is largely gone.

I need to study them all but I have seen at least 3 sets:
- Lavine or Derozan around a series of screens off ball coming from the baseline to the elbow
- The double screen across the top of the key set
- A set that can end up with Vuc in the post.

I haven't seen them enough to know all of the options in each set. Regardless, in general these sets run through Lavine and Derozan and not Vucevic.

Bulls somewhat simplified offense because Vuc struggled be hub. He hesitated somewhat, partly due team being new and partly because of his adjustement to play bit different role. He was getting into his spots and was getting good shoots, but someone from our commentators commented that he was bit slow to set it up. And it likely affected his shots and rhythm because defenses could get closer defending him. And then he continued pushing it shooting wise and become frustrating.

I would eventually like for Vuc to get back to idea of 4 out montion offense and play that role when team gets under the legs year of playing together. He will become more comfortable.

Bulls are now running offense where Vuc gets to his spots quick. No much thinking. And we play him as shooter instead scorer. We see defense collapse or double team on one of guards and Vuc usually pops and let it fly. In that situation he already knows ball is coming. We running like you said double screen across the top of the key set with him with different ball handlers involved to roll or pop. We essentially stopped running offense through him ala Jokic type for dynamic of two ball handlers with stretch center. We still get him his set shots to keep him engaged specially when teams put smaller player on him, but that's different than running offense through him.

[Hold That]

NBA fans / All Star voters have extremely short memory. If Vooch keeps doing what he’s been doing at a sustained level, nobody will remember or care what he looked like earlier in the season.

The fans vote for the starters, but the coaches vote for the reserves, and coaches not only remember games in real time but rewatch games during film study.

NBA coaches are also smart enough to realize why and who made a team reach the next level during season. Vuc is definitely the X factor on this team. If he plays well with Zach and Demar doing what they do, this team is a championship contender. If he keeps up this play through Jan, I can see coaches voting him in it’ll come down to between he and Bam for the backup C position.