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Lonzo Ball discussion thread

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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#101 » by RagingBull316 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 7:22 pm

When watching clips of rookie/sophmore Lonzo, for some reason he seems more explosive then I have seen so far with the Bulls. I've watched multiple highlights of him breaking down his defender and finishing with a dunk or acrobatic layup in traffic. He also looks much more coordinated finishing at the rim with acrobatic layups in a lot of the video I have seen of him. Meanwhile watching him on the Bulls, anytime he gets in the lane he comes to almost a complete stop under the basket before going up for a layup.

It almost reminds me of the difference between Pre and post injury Rose when he was struggling to finish plays when he first came back. Did Lonzo have some sort of major injury that I am unaware of in the past? It's odd to see him regress and not get better at finishing over the years.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#102 » by MrSparkle » Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:13 pm

RagingBull316 wrote:When watching clips of rookie/sophmore Lonzo, for some reason he seems more explosive then I have seen so far with the Bulls. I've watched multiple highlights of him breaking down his defender and finishing with a dunk or acrobatic layup in traffic. He also looks much more coordinated finishing at the rim with acrobatic layups in a lot of the video I have seen of him. Meanwhile watching him on the Bulls, anytime he gets in the lane he comes to almost a complete stop under the basket before going up for a layup.

It almost reminds me of the difference between Pre and post injury Rose when he was struggling to finish plays when he first came back. Did Lonzo have some sort of major injury that I am unaware of in the past? It's odd to see him regress and not get better at finishing over the years.


I’m seeing a trend in some players who need to bulk up to hang with the physicality of the NBA, but then they do lose a small bit of quickness, which is just enough to render them useless in the first-step and athletic finishes against most NBA defenders. I’d say Lonzo just got stronger and slower.

I don’t know why people also obsess with young talent, because they tend to say 18-22 is your prime athleticism, but I think 25-30yo healthy bodies are just better equipped for NBA. It’s a physical game, and most players who survive their first 5 years tend to pick up the elite demands of training and conditioning. By the time they’re 26, they’ve got more muscle than ever and usually regain their quickness if they stay lean.

Honestly, I say this with no proof or knowledge, but if I had to speculate out my ass, most young players just have poor diets and sleep schedules just like most young adults (parties, soda, beer, cocktails, pizza/burgers, bread, candy/snacks). So they start training with NBA rigor, but youthful lifestyle still is bad on conditioning and injuries, even if metabolism and energy is higher.

It isn’t until they go into old-man monk mode (go to bed, stick to veggies and lean protein) that they get into the healthiest best shape of their life. Nash and Paul are extreme testaments to this. Jokic is so much better than when he clearly had potatoes and steaks 3x a day and no cardio outside of NBA duties. :lol:

So anyway, I think Lonzo has bulked up quite a bit, which is good. Probably another year of training and diet regiment to maybe get some burst back that he had as a scrawny 18yo. He has the frame and skill to move up; hopefully he sticks to whatever Zach and Demar are doing to stay in peak shape.

Overall I still find some GMs obsession with youth farms funny for this very reason. There is SO much data indicating that teams filled with rookie contracts tend to suck really hard. I argue that both mentally and physically, most guys (stars, role-players, etc.) just need to mature to 26-28 to really dominate. Just imagine what Luka will be like when he stops going to discotheques at night and eating whatever Slovenian meal plan he’s on.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#103 » by fleet » Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:28 pm

His body is definitely different now
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#104 » by Mk0 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:41 pm

The Ringer has a great video about Lonzo/Caruso's defense. I figure this is a good place to drop it.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#105 » by GoBlue72391 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:21 pm

Lonzo with the donut last night. It seems like he's either really bad or a total non-factor with nothing in-between. Obviously his defense and transition playmaking has been top-notch.

Right now he is shooting by far a career-best from three at 42% on 6.7 attempts per game. That's obviously great and I hope he keeps it up, but if that ever comes back down to earth then that could be a potential issue as 64% of his made FG attempts are threes. To make things even more worrying, 86% of his made FG attempts are either threes or fastbreak layups/dunks.

The amount of layups he misses in the halfcourt is almost comical, as he's shooting 46% on layups and 37% overall from 2-point range. He really has no scoring ability to speak of outside of catch-and-shoot threes, so we really should not be expecting him to be a 3rd or even 4th scoring option. The sooner Vuch gets back, the better.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#106 » by Ice Man » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:30 pm

GoBlue72391 wrote:The amount of layups he misses in the halfcourt is almost comical, as he's shooting 46% on layups and 37% overall from 2-point range.


He's a truly terrible finisher. Combine that with an almost complete inability to get to the FT line and he is a prototypical 3&D player, but with the extra (and unusual) ability of being an outstanding outlet passer.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#107 » by GoBlue72391 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:26 pm

Ice Man wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:The amount of layups he misses in the halfcourt is almost comical, as he's shooting 46% on layups and 37% overall from 2-point range.


He's a truly terrible finisher. Combine that with an almost complete inability to get to the FT line and he is a prototypical 3&D player, but with the extra (and unusual) ability of being an outstanding outlet passer.
Oh yeah, I meant to include his inability to get to the line in my comment.

He has a grand total of 6 FT attempts this season. That's 0.3 attempts per game, which is by far the lowest of his career for a guy who already barely got to the line. Tough to get to the line when you don't do anything inside the arc and the defense knows it.

It seems to me like Lonzo would be incredibly easy to neutralize in a playoff setting.

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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#108 » by dougthonus » Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:34 pm

GoBlue72391 wrote:He has a grand total of 6 FT attempts this season. That's 0.3 attempts per game, which is by far the lowest of his career for a guy who already barely got to the line. Tough to get to the line when you don't do anything inside the arc and the defense knows it.

It seems to me like Lonzo would be incredibly easy to neutralize in a playoff setting.


In the sense that Lonzo won't be a go to playoff scorer, absolutely. However he's not that now, so what is being neutralized?

If you view his strengths as:
Floor spacing for our stars
Great at starting transition / early offense
Great defense

Then those strengths don't seem to be things people will easily neutralize in the playoffs. He's not getting anything out of finishing now, so figuring he wont' in the playoffs is already a given but doesn't really weaken him any.

Granted, he has nights like last night where he can't throw the ball in the ocean from three, who is to know if he will have more of those in the playoffs than the regular season.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#109 » by RagingBull316 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:37 pm

It's amazing to me before the season that people though we overpaid Derozan, but Lonzo is over here putting up a 0 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast stat line and nobody ever questioned the contract we gave him. If he stops making the 3 or gets lazy on defense, that contract is going to look real bad.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#110 » by Ice Man » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:39 pm

dougthonus wrote:Granted, he has nights like last night where he can't throw the ball in the ocean from three, who is to know if he will have more of those in the playoffs than the regular season.


God willing, we will learn this spring about how Lonzo and Zach perform in the playoffs. It's been a long wait for both of them.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#111 » by Ice Man » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:42 pm

RagingBull316 wrote:It's amazing to me before the season that people though we overpaid Derozan, but Lonzo is over here putting up a 0 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast stat line and nobody ever questioned the contract we gave him.


Lonzo was 23 years old when we signed him and improved a lot last season, while DeMar is 32 years old and did not improve last year (although he didn't get worse, either,). That was a big part of how people reacted to the two signings.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#112 » by kodo » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:59 pm

RagingBull316 wrote:It's amazing to me before the season that people though we overpaid Derozan, but Lonzo is over here putting up a 0 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast stat line and nobody ever questioned the contract we gave him. If he stops making the 3 or gets lazy on defense, that contract is going to look real bad.


He's still averaging 42% from 3. He could go 0-5 for the next 2 games and still be a far better 3P shooter than most of the league. Especially since his role is to defend, not score in bunches.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#113 » by GoBlue72391 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:42 pm

dougthonus wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:He has a grand total of 6 FT attempts this season. That's 0.3 attempts per game, which is by far the lowest of his career for a guy who already barely got to the line. Tough to get to the line when you don't do anything inside the arc and the defense knows it.

It seems to me like Lonzo would be incredibly easy to neutralize in a playoff setting.


In the sense that Lonzo won't be a go to playoff scorer, absolutely. However he's not that now, so what is being neutralized?

If you view his strengths as:
Floor spacing for our stars
Great at starting transition / early offense
Great defense

Then those strengths don't seem to be things people will easily neutralize in the playoffs. He's not getting anything out of finishing now, so figuring he wont' in the playoffs is already a given but doesn't really weaken him any.

Granted, he has nights like last night where he can't throw the ball in the ocean from three, who is to know if he will have more of those in the playoffs than the regular season.

What I meant was, as a team that's really lacking in 3-point shooting, Lonzo is one of our few threats from range. He's primarily a catch-and-shoot guy who can do some occasional off-the-dribble 3-point shots, but he's incapable of consistently scoring in any other way.

Given that, I think it would be very easy for opposing defenses to zero in on him as a shooter and essentially take away or at least significantly reduce one of our few shooters, leaving us with one less 3-point threat in the playoffs.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#114 » by GoBlue72391 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:54 pm

RagingBull316 wrote:It's amazing to me before the season that people though we overpaid Derozan, but Lonzo is over here putting up a 0 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast stat line and nobody ever questioned the contract we gave him. If he stops making the 3 or gets lazy on defense, that contract is going to look real bad.

I questioned it and still question it. I don't think he'll ever end up as a bad contract, but I do think we slightly to moderately overpaid for him given the type of player he is. He got more money than he deserved because he's young and will theoretically improve, but I don't really ever see Lonzo improving his scoring ability much more than it is right now.

It could happen as he does seem to have a high work ethic, but I'm not counting on it. If you can't consistently finish basic layups by age 24/5th year in the NBA then I don't see it ever happening. I think it's more likely that Lonzo eventually develops a basic post-game than him ever becoming a consistent driving threat, and I still don't even think that is particularly likely.

I said it all summer long: the player people thought Lonzo was leading up to when we signed him does not exist

Many people deluded themselves into believing he's an all-around PG who can not only defend and shoot threes, but can thrive running a halfcourt offense and excel in the P&R. That's not who he is. He's a 3&D wing who also functions as a transition playmaker.

He's a good player, but he's not who most people thought he was. I think the amount of hype and media coverage the Ball family gets was a big part of the disconnect between the player Lonzo is and the player people think he is.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#115 » by GoBlue72391 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:58 pm

kodo wrote:
RagingBull316 wrote:It's amazing to me before the season that people though we overpaid Derozan, but Lonzo is over here putting up a 0 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast stat line and nobody ever questioned the contract we gave him. If he stops making the 3 or gets lazy on defense, that contract is going to look real bad.


He's still averaging 42% from 3. He could go 0-5 for the next 2 games and still be a far better 3P shooter than most of the league. Especially since his role is to defend, not score in bunches.

That's if he continues to be a 40%+ shooter all season long. I think it's possible, but it's a pretty big if considering he's never shot above 37%.

Right now we can live with him providing no other scoring besides threes because he's shooting them at an elite level on high volume. If that dips to the 37% range, which is still good, it becomes a problem because his shooting is no longer good enough to make up for a complete lack of scoring elsewhere.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#116 » by dougthonus » Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:12 pm

GoBlue72391 wrote:What I meant was, as a team that's really lacking in 3-point shooting, Lonzo is one of our few threats from range. He's primarily a catch-and-shoot guy who can do some occasional off-the-dribble 3-point shots, but he's incapable of consistently scoring in any other way.

Given that, I think it would be very easy for opposing defenses to zero in on him as a shooter and essentially take away or at least significantly reduce one of our few shooters, leaving us with one less 3-point threat in the playoffs.


Well like most 3&D guys, he gets his shots because the defense is forced to pay attention to other players and not himself, but I agree that if they are able to stick a guy on him, Lonzo isn't going to pump fake you and drive and do any damage. The advantage of Lonzo as a catch and shoot guy is that he's developed an extremely fast, efficient release. He doesn't need a lot of space to get his shot off.

The other advantage is that he's a great passer, so if he has room, he can hit cutters and do other things, but creating his own shot or punishing you with his scoring is not one of them, but again, not sure how different that really becomes in the playoffs. He isn't hurting people in those ways now. Playoff teams will have better defense generally (because they are better teams) and may just defend the rotations better of course.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#117 » by bearadonisdna » Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:27 pm

The layup finishing will come in time.
He shows a 1st good step .
If you don’t think he is a capable of hitting a midrange elbow jumper your probably wrong .
He is a good shooter so that midrange stuff will become give me’s.

The layups will come in time as he settles in etc. maybe he gotta use more backboard in the meantime .

If he came in hitting on all cylinders he would be an allstar pointguard . That exceeds the bar right now.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#118 » by RagingBull316 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:37 am



This is how I remember Lonzo when he was younger finishing at the rim.....what happened to this? I haven't seen anything that looks remotely close to this. Now when he has a open lane to the basket, instead of going up for a layup he will stop under the basket like a middle schooler does and try to shoot with 2 hands off the backboard.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#119 » by sco » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:21 pm

RagingBull316 wrote:

This is how I remember Lonzo when he was younger finishing at the rim.....what happened to this? I haven't seen anything that looks remotely close to this. Now when he has a open lane to the basket, instead of going up for a layup he will stop under the basket like a middle schooler does and try to shoot with 2 hands off the backboard.

I think it's primarily a confidence thing that should be correctable. To your point, I rarely see him take the same shot at the rim twice. The other aspect is that he seems to struggle with the pass vs. shoot decision process, and IMO, it distracts his shot.
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Re: Lonzo Ball discussion thread 

Post#120 » by Wingy » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:46 am

RagingBull316 wrote:

This is how I remember Lonzo when he was younger finishing at the rim.....what happened to this? I haven't seen anything that looks remotely close to this. Now when he has a open lane to the basket, instead of going up for a layup he will stop under the basket like a middle schooler does and try to shoot with 2 hands off the backboard.


I don’t see anything significantly different based solely on the vid. There’s maybe 3-4 impressive finishes. The rest are either uncontested, or over smaller guys.

It’s a highlight video. I’m sure someone could cherry pick, and put together 3-4 nice finishes from this season.

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