How good can Ayo be? Ayo Thread

[dougthonus]

Don’t look now but Ayo is over .600 TS, 40% from 3, has already learned how to finish at the rim, is demonstrating a quick first step (even when going left for all you guys who read one time that he can’t do that even though he spent the whole prior season shaking defenders going left), and is playing extremely high level NBA defense.

He’s really having a remarkable rookie season. I’m growing more and more concerned about how we retain him after next season. Especially if we trade Coby and Ayo takes over the role as 7th man next year (which is a role he’s already earned this year but won’t get).

I’m afraid he’s going to have to really desperately want to be a Bull long term or he’ll have to make the business decision and leave.

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

[Bulls2021]

Don’t look now but Ayo is over .600 TS, 40% from 3, has already learned how to finish at the rim, is demonstrating a quick first step (even when going left for all you guys who read one time that he can’t do that even though he spent the whole prior season shaking defenders going left), and is playing extremely high level NBA defense.

He’s really having a remarkable rookie season. I’m growing more and more concerned about how we retain him after next season. Especially if we trade Coby and Ayo takes over the role as 7th man next year (which is a role he’s already earned this year but won’t get).

I’m afraid he’s going to have to really desperately want to be a Bull long term or he’ll have to make the business decision and leave.

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

That's interesting. It would be a tough pill for a team to swallow having Ayo as an immediate 20m cap hit. Not many teams would have that luxury. I guess if he becomes THAT good, this team is probably a big time contender next season.

[DuckIII]

Thanks Doug.

[kodo]

Potentially an All-Defensive teamer in his future.

Read on Twitter

[DxC17]

I have no idea what his player comparisons are

Lazy comparison on my part - Tony Allen? Long arms, good athleticism, good defender already. Never will be a 2nd or 3rd option most likely, but a very solid player.

I wouldn't say Allen, because Ayo is a better offensive player. His shooting at ranges are unusually good for any NBA player, much less a rookie.
Near the rim: 66%
Mid range: 57%
Long 2: 42%
3P: 39%

Tony Allen:
Near the rim: 60%
Mid range: 31%
Long 2: 32%
3P: 28%

Ayo is not really a 1 way player. It can be argued his offense is better than his defense, which is excellent. But he's just not getting the ball on this team, even during the covid replacement run we've been having. Just way too many guards to feed, and Ayo is at the bottom of the food triangle. He has a lower Usage rate than Matt Thomas or Troy Brown Jr.

Yeah, I think some forget what Ayo's draft profile looked like. He was not lauded for his defense coming out of college even if it wasn't a particular weak spot. In fact all of the profiles I can go back & find focus more on offense while using words on defense like "decent" & "solid upside". It was not a particular point of emphasis compared to offense.

He averaged (off the top of my head) the 2nd most PPG out of the P5 conferences last season on good efficiency & did it on a #1 seed. He was a certified bucket getter in college.

The 3&D role he's bought into in Billy's system is a change of pace for sure. But I've noticed as the games go on he's flashing more ballhandling & dribble penetration that was his bread and butter in college.

[Almost Retired]

Don’t look now but Ayo is over .600 TS, 40% from 3, has already learned how to finish at the rim, is demonstrating a quick first step (even when going left for all you guys who read one time that he can’t do that even though he spent the whole prior season shaking defenders going left), and is playing extremely high level NBA defense.

He’s really having a remarkable rookie season. I’m growing more and more concerned about how we retain him after next season. Especially if we trade Coby and Ayo takes over the role as 7th man next year (which is a role he’s already earned this year but won’t get).

I’m afraid he’s going to have to really desperately want to be a Bull long term or he’ll have to make the business decision and leave.

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

But if the front office decides that Ayo is the player to keep, and they trade Coby at the deadline this year, can the Bulls just resign Ayo to a new contract after this season and not wait until after his 2nd season?

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Don’t look now but Ayo is over .600 TS, 40% from 3, has already learned how to finish at the rim, is demonstrating a quick first step (even when going left for all you guys who read one time that he can’t do that even though he spent the whole prior season shaking defenders going left), and is playing extremely high level NBA defense.

He’s really having a remarkable rookie season. I’m growing more and more concerned about how we retain him after next season. Especially if we trade Coby and Ayo takes over the role as 7th man next year (which is a role he’s already earned this year but won’t get).

I’m afraid he’s going to have to really desperately want to be a Bull long term or he’ll have to make the business decision and leave.

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

Yeah, it's the exact same situation we were in with Omer Asik. He came over in 2010 on a two-year deal which expired in 2012, right after Derrick tore his ACL, and Houston made him a big offer(which would have been on our cap in poison pill form, i.e. with the huge salary in years three and four), and we declined to match(some people were upset at the time, but in hindsight it was the right decision).

FWIW, the cba has been slightly amended since then, and there is now a rule where if the matching team(would be us) is below the cap when matching the deal(and doesn't go up above the cap with the deal included), they can choose to have the average salary on the cap for four years(i.e. 20M per) instead of in poison pill form. This will likely not apply to us though since there is almost no way we'll be under the cap at that point.

If Ayo keeps playing like this and improving though, he may well be worth paying. AKME really should've given him the three years though instead of Simonovic.

[dougthonus]

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

But if the front office decides that Ayo is the player to keep, and they trade Coby at the deadline this year, can the Bulls just resign Ayo to a new contract after this season and not wait until after his 2nd season?

No, you can only do extensions on deals that are three years or longer in length, and Ayo's deal runs through the end of next season.

[CaPiTanAK]

His contract situation is still confusing to me. Wasn't it determined that there will be some type of bird rights? Another team may offer a poison pill contract, but the bulls can match it.

That is correct, Bulls can match any deal in his 3rd year, but the most they can offer is whatever exception they have.

I don't know the exact numbers, but another team can probably offer something like 4/80, but it would go on the cap for them as 20M each year and it would go on the cap for us as 10/10/30/30.

Yeah, it's the exact same situation we were in with Omer Asik. He came over in 2010 on a two-year deal which expired in 2012, right after Derrick tore his ACL, and Houston made him a big offer(which would have been on our cap in poison pill form, i.e. with the huge salary in years three and four), and we declined to match(some people were upset at the time, but in hindsight it was the right decision).

FWIW, the cba has been slightly amended since then, and there is now a rule where if the matching team(would be us) is below the cap when matching the deal(and doesn't go up above the cap with the deal included), they can choose to have the average salary on the cap for four years(i.e. 20M per) instead of in poison pill form. This will likely not apply to us though since there is almost no way we'll be under the cap at that point.

If Ayo keeps playing like this and improving though, he may well be worth paying. AKME really should've given him the three years though instead of Simonovic.

Not matching Asik was the wrong move. Houston got back a first rounder for him. It was similar to trash GarPax getting back a second rounder for Dreamin Korver and the Hawks getting back a first rounder after 2-3 seasons of quality play. Don’t ever forget the gross incompetence of these two morons:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/11211741/houston-rockets-get-trevor-ariza-new-orleans-pelicans-get-omer-asik

[TheSuzerain]

I think you kind of sandbag it with Ayo until he signs an extension. Only have to wait 1 more year, and it's not like he's essential given what we have with Caruso/Ball.

[dougthonus]

Not matching Asik was the wrong move. Houston got back a first rounder for him. It was similar to trash GarPax getting back a second rounder for Dreamin Korver and the Hawks getting back a first rounder after 2-3 seasons of quality play. Don’t ever forget the gross incompetence of these two morons:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/11211741/houston-rockets-get-trevor-ariza-new-orleans-pelicans-get-omer-asik

Both moves were to avoid the luxury tax and likely mandated by ownership based on the teams situation. There are plenty of real reasons to hate GarPax, but you should hate Jerry Reinsdorf for these moves.

[Wingy]

Never understood the point of allowing the poison pill. Can anyone clarify?

The point of the Arenas rule was to help teams keep players they unearthed like Gil...and Ayo. But allowing the pill effectively nullifies the spirit of the rule.

Would be better IMO if teams simply had Bird rights to their own 2nd round picks. There’s not that many gems, you shouldn’t be penalized if you find one, and the tax rules seem punitive enough nowadays that teams aren’t “buying” championships.

[FriedRise]

I think there’s a good chance he’ll continue to fly under the radar and won’t cost us as much at extension. Rookies on a good team rarely get the accolades anyway because their playing time is limited compared to those on terrible teams. And he’s a second rounder also.

If you look at the Rookie of the Year ladder, he’s not even in the top 10. Watch him not get selected for the Rising Stars challenge in the AS game because his stats just aren’t gaudy:

6/4/1

[Almost Retired]

If he keeps up his current level of play and improves YOY I think he's going to have bigger contract offers available to him than what the Bulls can offer due to the cap. He'll have the weight the extra money against playing for his hometown team that is contender.

[meekrab]

If he keeps up his current level of play and improves YOY I think he's going to have bigger contract offers available to him than what the Bulls can offer due to the cap. He'll have the weight the extra money against playing for his hometown team that is contender.

We've covered this before, the Bulls are allowed to match any offer, it just comes with weird cap shenanigans. I think the most likely scenario is a sign and trade and the second most likely is he takes our taxpayer MLE.

[sco]

https://youtu.be/e0A-y8lr0J8?t=8

[kodo]

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-jan-12-2022

One of the best things about being drafted in the NBA’s second round is, there are so many people to prove wrong.

First, of course, comes the sting of sliding out of the first round, where the money is better and guaranteed and teams typically have a more obvious commitment to a player’s success. Second-rounders sometimes fare worse than guys who aren’t drafted at all, who at least can scramble with their agents to score an invitation to a camp where the fit is better.

But with the right personality, the proper edge, a second-round pick can turn his status into marvelous motivation.

Beyond proving untold numbers of scouts, coaches and executives wrong for passing them up, a player selected when NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum is announcing the picks – after boss Adam Silver has left the stage – can stare at all those names above his on the Draft list and formulate a challenge. Whether the higher picks know it or not.

In recent years, Gilbert Arenas (No. 31 in 2001) and Draymond Green (No. 35 in 2012) have been pretty candid about psyching themselves up when they faced teams that passed on them. On Tuesday night, it was Ayo Dosunmu’s turn. The No. 38 pick in the 2021 Draft laser-focused on Detroit and its prize rookie Cade Cunningham, who went No. 1 overall last summer.

Both players have rungs on this week’s Kia Rookie Ladder. But Dosunmu, increasingly valuable off Chicago’s bench, won the battle this time.

.

[R3AL1TY]

Ayo is already showing shutdown defender potential in his 1st season while displaying the ability to knockdown 3s, score in transition, make layups in traffic, and make good passes. If he continues to work on all aspects of the game, he has starter or even all-star potential.

[jordanwilliams6]

He was compared to Jrue a fair bit after he was drafted which I thought was a bit optimistic. After watching him develop more and more, he absolutely has that sort of potential.

His 3 point shot is what has shocked me the most. Low volume but 44% on 2 attempts a game is fantastic.

[Wingy]

Lonzo being out gave me the thought. Ayo could theoretically replace Lonzo down the road. Idea being Lonzo’s part of a larger trade package. With a summer of work and some experience, is the gap that big between the two? I could see Ayo being better than Lonzo mid-range area as early as next season.

Generally pleased w/Lonzo since his D has been as good as advertised (a number of Pels fans suggested otherwise), but he really is such a limited player. Excellent spot up 3s, and the occasional highlight full court pass, but otherwise...he’s very ordinary on offense.

It has always been Ayo vs Coby, but we may wanna think harder about Ayo vs Lonzo too.