How good can Ayo be? Ayo Thread

Lexluthor · Post #641 » by **Lexluthor** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 5:41 pm

I feel like people overrate him on this board . At best he is the next Kirk Hinrich . Those Jimmy Butler comparisons need to stop . Just like when people were Comparing Patrick Williams to Kawhi Leonard last year

robert76 · Post #642 » by **robert76** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 6:01 pm

Lexluthor wrote:I feel like people overrate him on this board . At best he is the next Kirk Hinrich . Those Jimmy Butler comparisons need to stop . Just like when people were Comparing Patrick Williams to Kawhi Leonard last year

Chances of Ayo becoming Jimmy Butler are very slim, but his ceiling is definitely higher than Kirk.

sco · Post #643 » by **sco** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 8:25 pm

So, right now, where do folks think Ayo is in terms of all-around PG ranking? Top 20?

gardenofsound · Post #644 » by **gardenofsound** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 8:48 pm

robert76 wrote:
Lexluthor wrote:I feel like people overrate him on this board . At best he is the next Kirk Hinrich . Those Jimmy Butler comparisons need to stop . Just like when people were Comparing Patrick Williams to Kawhi Leonard last year

Chances of Ayo becoming Jimmy Butler are very slim, but his ceiling is definitely higher than Kirk.

He's already a better transition player than Kirk Hinrich. He's not a prime Hinrich level defender but his ceiling is in that realm. And to say that he has a Hinrich level ceiling... I'd probably at this point argue that his 30th percentile outcome is as a Hinrich level impact player. That means, for you non stats people, that I think he has a 70% chance of having a better career than Kirk Hinrich.

Mbrahv0528 · Post #645 » by **Mbrahv0528** » Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:24 pm

Lexluthor wrote:I feel like people overrate him on this board . At best he is the next Kirk Hinrich . Those Jimmy Butler comparisons need to stop . Just like when people were Comparing Patrick Williams to Kawhi Leonard last year

Lol. He's already arguably as good as Kirk was, but sure, Kirk is his ceiling

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ThisGuyFawkes · Post #646 » by **ThisGuyFawkes** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:10 pm

Ayo seems like the kind of player that will continue to get better. With his rookie season in the books, how do we feel about the prospects of his 2nd season?

His man defense is already very solid so I'd like to see him work on his 3pt shot. He had plenty of rookie mistakes with the ball in his hands but overall he was decent when running the offense. I think his decision making will improve with experience and we'll really start to see him shine in his 3rd year.

In the first half of the season, he would attack the basket quite a bit, and that was working very well for him. He seemed to get away from that in the 2nd half.

He averaged 2.4 3's per game, making them at a 37.6% clip. I'd love to see him maintain that shooting % while bumping up the volume to 4 attempts per game. We can assume he won't be playing 20+ mpg next season so that usage increase might be a lot to ask. Basically I'd love him to become a poor man's version of Ball. That way we're not as screwed when Ball inevitably gets injured.

I think Ayo becoming more of a 3-and-D type of player with solid handles and passing would really go a long way shoring up some of our shortcomings.

gardenofsound · Post #647 » by **gardenofsound** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:36 pm

mlitney01 wrote:Ayo seems like the kind of player that will continue to get better. With his rookie season in the books, how do we feel about the prospects of his 2nd season?

His man defense is already very solid so I'd like to see him work on his 3pt shot. He had plenty of rookie mistakes with the ball in his hands but overall he was decent when running the offense. I think his decision making will improve with experience and we'll really start to see him shine in his 3rd year.

In the first half of the season, he would attack the basket quite a bit, and that was working very well for him. He seemed to get away from that in the 2nd half.

He averaged 2.4 3's per game, making them at a 37.6% clip. I'd love to see him maintain that shooting % while bumping up the volume to 4 attempts per game. We can assume he won't be playing 20+ mpg next season so that usage increase might be a lot to ask. Basically I'd love him to become a poor man's version of Ball. That way we're not as screwed when Ball inevitably gets injured.

I think Ayo becoming more of a 3-and-D type of player with solid handles and passing would really go a long way shoring up some of our shortcomings.

These are his priorities this offseason:
1. Shot mechanics. Make them consistent. He needs to be able to increase his 3P volume and be a more consistent threat so that his defender can't cheat off ball.
2. Add some bulk to better absorb contact from some of the bigger guards in the league as well as for fighting through screens.
3. Tighten/lower his handle.

Post #648 » by **Ice Man** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:46 pm

Mbrahv0528 wrote:Lol. He's already arguably as good as Kirk was, but sure, Kirk is his ceiling

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Peak Kirk was much, much better than Ayo was this year. Rookie Kirk was better, too, although not overwhelmingly so.

Bullflip · Post #649 » by **Bullflip** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:51 pm

Ice Man wrote:
Mbrahv0528 wrote:Lol. He's already arguably as good as Kirk was, but sure, Kirk is his ceiling

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Peak Kirk was much, much better than Ayo was this year. Rookie Kirk was better, too, although not overwhelmingly so.

Yea Kirk was pretty good. I think people forget that because he was part of a stacked draft.

MrSparkle · Post #650 » by **MrSparkle** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:56 pm

I think he needs to put a lot of work into his ball handling and shooting skills before he's actually in conversation for top-30 PG or anything. IMO he played well enough mentally and off-the-ball to merit the developmental minutes, but he was hardly helping us win games. Very serviceable guard. I like his ceiling but he has ways to go.

Post #651 » by **Ice Man** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:57 pm

Bullflip wrote:Yea Kirk was pretty good. I think people forget that because he was part of a stacked draft.

He was a championship quality NBA starter for 7 years. I mean, he could never be the first or second best player on a contender, but maybe the third best (if the other two were LeBron and AD), and certainly the #4 guy. That ain't bad.

MrSparkle · Post #652 » by **MrSparkle** » Thu May 5, 2022 7:59 pm

Bullflip wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
Mbrahv0528 wrote:Lol. He's already arguably as good as Kirk was, but sure, Kirk is his ceiling

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Peak Kirk was much, much better than Ayo was this year. Rookie Kirk was better, too, although not overwhelmingly so.

Yea Kirk was pretty good. I think people forget that because he was part of a stacked draft.

I also think his first 4 seasons were radically better than the rest. Such a disappointing drop-off.

He played out of his mind in the rookie Wizards series, besides for 1 terrible game and the Duhon miscommunication/turnover that sealed the last game.

rosenthall · Post #653 » by **rosenthall** » Thu May 5, 2022 8:17 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
Bullflip wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
Peak Kirk was much, much better than Ayo was this year. Rookie Kirk was better, too, although not overwhelmingly so.

Yea Kirk was pretty good. I think people forget that because he was part of a stacked draft.

I also think his first 4 seasons were radically better than the rest. Such a disappointing drop-off.

He played out of his mind in the rookie Wizards series, besides for 1 terrible game and the Duhon miscommunication/turnover that sealed the last game.

Yeah, Kirk had a strange career trajectory. He peaked before the end of his rookie contract, which is unusual for someone who never suffered career altering injuries.

On his rookie contract I think he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Kind of a Jeff Hornacek / Terry Porter hybrid. Coaches really seemed to think highly of what he did. But after he got his money his play declined and stayed in the 'meh' category for the rest of his career. Not entirely sure why. I've heard it was some combination of losing motivation after he got paid, nagging injuries and drinking. But I'll never know.

I don't think Ayo is the same level of player as Kirk on his rookie contract, but I do think he's about where Kirk was in his second stint with the Bulls. I don't think he's a lock to reach where Kirk was in years 3/4, but he does have better physical tools, so we'll see.

kodo · Post #654 » by **kodo** » Thu May 5, 2022 8:40 pm

Kirk had a good first 4 years because Skiles was the coach all 4 of those years, and he was irrationally in love with Kirk. Kirk was a huge part of everything we did, he was playing close to 37 mpg as a 2nd year player and the offense ran through him even though he shot under 40% overall and had a below 50% TS.

Someone below 50% TS is not even in the league these days, much less a #1 option for an offense. It's lower than Westbrick this year where everyone jokes about him.

The coaches following Skiles were not good, but they had a more rational take on how much Kirk should have the ball...which is not much. He's a career 51% TS scorer.

Kirk was a great defender and good catch & shoot guy. I loved watching him play because of his hustle, but have no delusions about high his talent level was.

BullChit · Post #655 » by **BullChit** » Fri May 6, 2022 11:55 am

I'm not saying Ayo will be the next Jimmy Butler or as good as Jimmy Butler but let's remember the chances of Jimmy Butler becoming Jimmy Butler were pretty slim after his first season too.

Post #656 » by **Ice Man** » Fri May 6, 2022 12:48 pm

kodo wrote:Kirk had a good first 4 years because Skiles was the coach all 4 of those years, and he was irrationally in love with Kirk. Kirk was a huge part of everything we did, he was playing close to 37 mpg as a 2nd year player and the offense ran through him even though he shot under 40% overall and had a below 50% TS.

Those are good points. I will say in Kirk's defense that during his first 6 years, he had seasons of 56%, 55%, and 53% TS%, each of which put him ahead of the league average, which was lower in those days. Combined with his defense and pretty good playmaking, that made for an underrated player.

In Kirk's best shooting year, 2007, he was the 25th best player in the league on VORP, trailing only Nash, Kidd, and CP3 among point guards among that measure. Of course cherry picking that one year overstates his overall contribution, but it does illustrate that at his best, Kirk was more than just another glue player.

sco · Post #657 » by **sco** » Fri May 6, 2022 12:56 pm

I'm still not sure what happened to Ayo's dynamic playmaking toward the end of the season. I get the rookie wall thing, but he was doing some very impressive playmaking and dropping a ton of highlight worthy passes to guys for easy buckets, and it's like someone said "stop making those passes".

As much as I still like his potential, the selfish part of me wants him to remain in a limited role next season so that nobody offers him a poison pill deal and we can retain him on a cheap deal at "backup PG" levels.

Post #658 » by **Ice Man** » Fri May 6, 2022 1:44 pm

sco wrote:I'm still not sure what happened to Ayo's dynamic playmaking toward the end of the season.

Ayo's three stages -

1) Hey, a good utility player, nice pick-up for a 2nd rounder
2) Damn! (When he initially started)
3) Oh, damn. (Late in the season, and then the playoffs)

gardenofsound · Post #659 » by **gardenofsound** » Fri May 6, 2022 1:50 pm

Ice Man wrote:
sco wrote:I'm still not sure what happened to Ayo's dynamic playmaking toward the end of the season.

Ayo's three stages -

1) Hey, a good utility player, nice pick-up for a 2nd rounder
2) Damn! (When he initially started)
3) Oh, damn. (Late in the season, and then the playoffs)

Not to discount that his play did seem to drop off a bit, I think it was a combo of two factors:
1. Teams knew to gameplan for him.
2. The overall team performance went down... so those dishes that would have been assists ended up being stat-less bricks for Ayo.

MGB8 · Post #660 » by **MGB8** » Fri May 6, 2022 3:07 pm

BullChit wrote:I'm not saying Ayo will be the next Jimmy Butler or as good as Jimmy Butler but let's remember the chances of Jimmy Butler becoming Jimmy Butler were pretty slim after his first season too.

Or Fred VanVleet being as good as he is. Or Kyle Lowry being as good as he is. Or Chauncy Billups being as good as he was. Or Steve Nash being as good as Nash was.

People think that unless a guy immediately flashes generational type talent, they have no ceiling. Because most guys who don't start that way don't end up borderline / on-and-off all-stars... But guess what, most borderline and on-and-off all stars don't start out looking like generational talents. Most of them start looking "meh" and then grow into on-and-off / borderline all-stars.

Anyway, on Ayo, he still reminds me a lot of Jrue Holiday (though, in fairness, I thought Coby looked like Jrue in terms of his play at UNC... but herky jerky big pg with inconsistent 3 and good but not great passing, good college defender didn't translate into NBA).

Jrue-level would be a higher point outcome for Ayo... but I also don't think it's his "ceiling." He could be even better (although that's unlikely). And obviously chances are that more likely than not he doesn't reach Jrue level --- but I don't think it's like 90/10 or 80/20 that he doesn't, I think it's more like 66/33.