Ball's knee not improving, may indicate more serious issue

[aguifs]

The perfect reason not overpaying for another bad knee.

Zach needs to go

This guy woulda traded prime MJ in 85 after he broke his foot.

Good. Let's have Lonzo out for a while, max Lavine knees with 3x surgeries. It will end up really well!!!

We have a closing window of opportunity to get some nice return for Zach. Knowing our last 10 years of injuries, I would not gamble on that. We're going nowhere with this squad.

[MikeDC]

The perfect reason not overpaying for another bad knee.

Zach needs to go

This guy woulda traded prime MJ in 85 after he broke his foot.

Good. Let's have Lonzo out for a while, max Lavine knees with 3x surgeries. It will end up really well!!!

We have a closing window of opportunity to get some nice return for Zach. Knowing our last 10 years of injuries, I would not gamble on that. We're going nowhere with this squad.

It all depends on how willing the team is to spend. If the Bulls are willing to spend like the proverbial big market team, then they can afford to take more risks on the cost margin. A big market team that prioritizes winning will say "oh ****, our PG is hurt, let's go out and get another one so we can stay competitive".

A small-market team, or a big market team that doesn't prioritize winning looks at their hurt PG, says, "we've already got too much money locked up in PGs" and figures they'll muddle through with waiver wire pickups and playing their SGs as PGs. And in the end, people will still buy tickets, so so what?

[WestsideResider]

The perfect reason not overpaying for another bad knee.

Zach needs to go

This guy woulda traded prime MJ in 85 after he broke his foot.

Good. Let's have Lonzo out for a while, max Lavine knees with 3x surgeries. It will end up really well!!!

We have a closing window of opportunity to get some nice return for Zach. Knowing our last 10 years of injuries, I would not gamble on that. We're going nowhere with this squad.

You’d think that if any fanbase understood that it’s best to cut your losses when it comes to knee injuries it’d be this one, but alas.

[chefo]

Lonzo's been made out of glass his entire career. If you're that broken down as an early 20-something, odds are you're not getting healthier, apart from maybe a fluke year or two, as you get older. To me, projected availability is every bit as important as productivity when you're on the court.

There were 2 potential reasons why I thought $20M per was an overpay for Lonzo, even when it was discussed mid-season as Lonzo for Sato + 2nd:
* In NO (and LA before that), he was not that impactful, neither on O, nor on D. That was the season of point Zion, so at least I can see why he didn't matter much, in context.
* He's never been healthy;

So, the Bulls made two bets:
1.) Lonzo will get better--that looked like a good bet while Lonzo was on the court--good D and high volume 3-point shooting, plus some play-making; he played better than I thought he was prior to the Bulls

2.) Lonzo will stay healthy -- that one was a strikeout. Again, that's not personal, Lonzo seems like a really good dude, but most people's bodies can't take that kind of punishment. The Bulls' coaches making him guard PFs regularly and fight through screens constantly was just tempting fate. Again, Lonzo's a historically brittle player--"let's see how many elbows, shoulders and knees he can eat before he breaks down".

Betting heavily on Lonzo to carry the PG and D, IMO, is a symptom of how the new FO does things. I think there was a lot of 'hopium' in how the Bulls' FO built this roster and not much 'thinking'. They made a lot of smaller and bigger bets on how things would pan out: Vuc would not slow down and stay healthy (no viable backup), even though C's in their 30s tend to fall off a cliff in terms of raw production. Lonzo would stay healthy (no viable backup) and get better. Pat would stay healthy and develop nicely (no viable backup). Demar will play as well as he did on the Spurs. We don't need high volume 3-point shooting. We don't need size (four Gs and Vuc all year?).

What saved the season was Demar playing at an all-NBA level and Zach playing really well pre-AS break. Virtually all the other 'at-batts' over the last 2 seasons were strikeouts to double-plays, depending on how you look at it. To me, separating luck from thoughtful execution matters in evaluating executives. Throwing shyte at the wall, where one of'm happened to stick for a season (Demar), will lead to a lot of heartbreak down the line if same behavior persists, unless the FO realize that they've been behaving like kids with ADD to open their tenure. They remind me of Elton Brand in Philly, and that's not a good thing.

[MikeDC]

They remind me of Elton Brand in Philly, and that's not a good thing.

There's the Marc Eversley connection...

All in all, that's a really great but foreboding post.

[sco]

I get that Ball is injured, but we have $20M tied up in him, so we're not doing more than adding a vet min dude to give us more PG depth. I think they'd start Caruso and give Ayo the backup PG job if Ball's not available. Those 2 aren't going to make us contenders, but there is little chance of that happening without a healthy Ball, and we'll get a better look at a developing Ayo.

[dougthonus]

Hear P&S saying Ayton could be available? WTF, Id be all in on that. This current build isn’t going to work if this team is so fragile.

Without flat out saying I don’t want Ayton, I’m just going to point out that he’s maybe not even as good as Wendell Carter (there are a variety of metrics that favor Carter-who was practically ridden out of town on a rail) and will literally cost twice as much.

Point is, it would be another top dollar transaction. Paying big money and/or picks instead of seeking value. Which is fine… but then don’t cry poor when it comes to filling out the roster if you’re going to overpay for guys like this

I agree it would be big money, I don't know that it'd be big picks. Either way, I agree that Ayton's incremental value over Carter probably isn't so high that you should be excited to pay him 3x as much and give up picks to get him, which really gets back to, boy did we screw up the Vuc trade, but we are where we are now, and there's no easy way to undo that.

[Bulliever2020]

I get that Ball is injured, but we have $20M tied up in him, so we're not doing more than adding a vet min dude to give us more PG depth. I think they'd start Caruso and give Ayo the backup PG job if Ball's not available. Those 2 aren't going to make us contenders, but there is little chance of that happening without a healthy Ball, and we'll get a better look at a developing Ayo.

And you know AC is eventually going to be out long stretches of the season as well with his playing style. Thank the lord for Ayo really or we'd be in even bigger trouble.

[MikeDC]

Hear P&S saying Ayton could be available? WTF, Id be all in on that. This current build isn’t going to work if this team is so fragile.

Without flat out saying I don’t want Ayton, I’m just going to point out that he’s maybe not even as good as Wendell Carter (there are a variety of metrics that favor Carter-who was practically ridden out of town on a rail) and will literally cost twice as much.

Point is, it would be another top dollar transaction. Paying big money and/or picks instead of seeking value. Which is fine… but then don’t cry poor when it comes to filling out the roster if you’re going to overpay for guys like this

I agree it would be big money, I don't know that it'd be big picks. Either way, I agree that Ayton's incremental value over Carter probably isn't so high that you should be excited to pay him 3x as much and give up picks to get him, which really gets back to, boy did we screw up the Vuc trade, but we are where we are now, and there's no easy way to undo that.

Probably... but I'll keep on repeating it. It's less of a screw up if you commit to running your team like a "big market" team. Obviously you never want to waste resources, but if you're ok with committing more resources than other teams (e.g. spending to improve) then it takes a lot of the sting out of it. The problem is, are the Bulls really committed to this philosophy or revert to their usual approach?

[RoyceDa59]

I really hope Lonzo comes back healthy for you guys. He is such a key part of the team and last season wasn’t the same after he went down.

[Rowland Garrett]

That's it. It's over for Lonzo Ball's time, as a starter, in Chicago. This was super short lived. Even IF he does return, Lonzo cannot start. Time to move on.

This isn't D Rose. But it sucks to be sure. There are reasons to hope, so let's not write him off yet.

As some far more knowledgeable folks than I have pointed out, options for fixing this are out there. It may take some time, maybe even deep into, or through, next season. Realistically it is reasonable to hope for better than that.

Back to the Drose comparison. The loss of athleticism crippled Rose for years until he finally adjusted into a very fine player again, if not All Star quality. Lonzo's game isn't predicated on explosive athleticism. Tough smart defense, quick hands, anticipation, IQ, vision, passing on the break, and 3-point shooting. So even if he comes back minus a bit of explosion, he can still be what we saw early this past season.

[DuckIII]

If Lonzo’s knee really is gorked for the long term, this rebuild is already dead. Unless it’s so completely screwed we get cap relief.

But this is a really big deal.

[League Circles]

If Lonzo’s knee really is gorked for the long term, this rebuild is already dead. Unless it’s so completely screwed we get cap relief.

But this is a really big deal.

Idk, it's not like we were likely to get anyone via cap space for years to come anyways. Ball is better than Caruso and Ayo, but not so much better that that drop off would single handedly tank our chances to compete at a high level. Ball is easily the most expendable of our top half dozen players for that reason IMO.

[dougthonus]

Probably... but I'll keep on repeating it. It's less of a screw up if you commit to running your team like a "big market" team. Obviously you never want to waste resources, but if you're ok with committing more resources than other teams (e.g. spending to improve) then it takes a lot of the sting out of it. The problem is, are the Bulls really committed to this philosophy or revert to their usual approach?

Seems like trading for Ayton would fit this model of running like a big market team if you look at it that way.

I don't really look at it that way myself (or at least not fully). I agree partially what you're saying, but only some part of what you are doing is based on willingness to pay, overpaying in ways of player value / pick value aren't things you can undo by just spending more money.

[Dan Z]

I hope Ayo shows big improvement going forward and can help when Lonzo is out.

[Lexluthor]

This guy woulda traded prime MJ in 85 after he broke his foot.

Good. Let's have Lonzo out for a while, max Lavine knees with 3x surgeries. It will end up really well!!!

We have a closing window of opportunity to get some nice return for Zach. Knowing our last 10 years of injuries, I would not gamble on that. We're going nowhere with this squad.

You’d think that if any fanbase understood that it’s best to cut your losses when it comes to knee injuries it’d be this one, but alas.

If we trade Zach we become a lottery team again. Except that we don't own the pick if outside the top 5.I rather keep Zach

[NecessaryEvil]

Lonzo is the engine so this is extremely tough.

We run when he's on the floor and have elite defense with himself and AC.

Bulls need to try and move Vooch in a three-team involving PHX and DALLAS.

I think Vooch excels with either Doncic or CP3

[fleet]

If Lonzo’s knee really is gorked for the long term, this rebuild is already dead. Unless it’s so completely screwed we get cap relief.

But this is a really big deal.

Idk, it's not like we were likely to get anyone via cap space for years to come anyways. Ball is better than Caruso and Ayo, but not so much better that that drop off would single handedly tank our chances to compete at a high level. Ball is easily the most expendable of our top half dozen players for that reason IMO.

We should probably lower our sights other than building a title type team to just being competitive. But that’s kind of what happened to us this year. We got big eyes. Lonzo being out takes this current build out of that trajectory. A lot of people are gonna want to reassess the team’s future as far as the bigger goals. Is that kind of big thinking possible now without Lonzo? Doubt it seriously.

[fleet]

Hear P&S saying Ayton could be available? WTF, Id be all in on that. This current build isn’t going to work if this team is so fragile.

Without flat out saying I don’t want Ayton, I’m just going to point out that he’s maybe not even as good as Wendell Carter (there are a variety of metrics that favor Carter-who was practically ridden out of town on a rail) and will literally cost twice as much.

Point is, it would be another top dollar transaction. Paying big money and/or picks instead of seeking value. Which is fine… but then don’t cry poor when it comes to filling out the roster if you’re going to overpay for guys like this

Not sure at the end of the day what kinds of assets it would require. But the kid is young. And at the end of the day size is becoming more important than it has been. If we would have to start over then around him, it is what it is. what we have going now without Lonzo is kind of untenable to a championship build. As I said previously, maybe that’s the wrong thinking, but some people are wired to go for championship type builds rather than settling for being a competitive opponent without ultimate upside in the post season. I don’t know about overpay either. Zach’s about to be overpaid. That’s appropriate based highly contingent on a player’s quality, sure. But again, young kid bound to be better in a few years. Size gets paid and overpaid, and a team can’t do without quality size. If a team wasn’t going for ‘continuity’, starting with rare size should be a force multiplier.

[MikeDC]

Probably... but I'll keep on repeating it. It's less of a screw up if you commit to running your team like a "big market" team. Obviously you never want to waste resources, but if you're ok with committing more resources than other teams (e.g. spending to improve) then it takes a lot of the sting out of it. The problem is, are the Bulls really committed to this philosophy or revert to their usual approach?

Seems like trading for Ayton would fit this model of running like a big market team if you look at it that way.

I don't really look at it that way myself (or at least not fully). I agree partially what you're saying, but only some part of what you are doing is based on willingness to pay, overpaying in ways of player value / pick value aren't things you can undo by just spending more money.

It's at the extreme end. Like, this is where AKME, if they have any sense, are talking to the Reinsdorfs (or maybe it's just Michael at this point) and saying, "Look, if you tell me the budget isn't an issue, and you really mean it, then sure. But if having him on a max deal means you're not going to let me make other costly moves like using the MLE or buying draft picks when I feel it's necessary, then we probably shouldn't."