Image ImageImage Image

OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger

Moderators: HomoSapien, kulaz3000, Michael Jackson, Ice Man, dougthonus, Tommy Udo 6 , DASMACKDOWN, GimmeDat, Payt10, RedBulls23, coldfish, AshyLarrysDiaper, fleet

User avatar
WookieOnRitalin
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 8,099
And1: 270
Joined: Sep 06, 2002
Location: Nashville, TN

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#161 » by WookieOnRitalin » Mon May 30, 2022 12:00 pm

dice wrote:
WookieOnRitalin wrote:
dice wrote:one should be neither financially incentivized nor dis-incentivized to be in a relationship

and child subsidies are exactly that: they are for the child. their availability and/or amount should not be determined by factoring in whether to reward or punish the parent(s). to punish a single mother whose baby daddy left her or was killed is vile

there are unfortunately many women who desire a baby but not a relationship with the father. and many more men who are simply irresponsible. that is shameful. but it is also none of the government's business


Well, if you care about the well being of children, then yes, we should incentivize those behaviors that lead to the best outcome for children. Statistically speaking, fathers in the home reduces crime and produces better outcomes for children.

we cannot reasonably incentivize fathers to stay in the home. do you not understand that? nor should that be the government's role. it's social engineering. which is highly unethical

This is not about punishing. This is about the reality is that the system is not working and producing poor results which should encourage us to try a different strategy as a society.

yes. as a society. not the government. the government has zero ability to do anything about reducing single motherhood other than withhold assistance or force sterilizations, which only results in more harm to women and children as well as encouraging more abortions. that is what your desire to dabble in social engineering would result in

additionally, the research is quite clear: higher rates of government assistance do NOT cause an increase in single motherhood. the percentage of children living in single parent households peaked around 20 years ago. the welfare state has not declined in the interim. rather it has continued to expand


Indeed. Now it is generational which proves the point further. Single mothers are producing single mothers.

We socially engineer all the time. We create incentives and disincentives for a variety of reasons, but the main mechanism behind offering an incentive is to create a higher liklihood of a behavior happening.

As a general rule, I am not a personal fan of the government intervening in such matters. That's not my overall point. My overall point, which I have yet to hear anyone really make an opposing claim, is that any discussion about violent crime without a discussion on single motherhood and fatherless homes is doomed to fail because it fails to address one of the primary catalysts for creating environments where individuals are more susceptible towards crime. This deviation increases when you account for poverty.

90% of welfare recipients are single mothers (who represent 40% of all live births) with unfortunately the majority being black.

Your claims are mostly speculation. You have no way to predict what would happen if the subsidies ended. The only reference we have is the years prior to these programs being enacted. Before Roe became law, the single motherhood rate was less than 10%.

After Roe became law, the single motherhood rate as skyrocketed to 40% and it has disproportionately impacted the black community who represent the higher percentage of abortions. When you account for population differences (vs whites as an example) you begin to understand how this situation again disproportionately impacts the black community.

Marriage rate for blacks in 1960 was betwen 62-70% (depending on source). Now? It is 32%.

The expansion of social welfare in the 1960s has created a large problem that needs discussion.

We have to investigate what mechanisms have created these results and if you honestly believe that government intervention and programs have nothing to do with it, then I can understand, but I would argue that is a fairly blind position that does not really investigate the data.
"As you think, so shall you become." --- Bruce Lee
User avatar
DuckIII
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 68,938
And1: 33,640
Joined: Nov 25, 2003
Location: On my high horse.
     

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#162 » by DuckIII » Mon May 30, 2022 12:57 pm

What is your proposed “incentive”?
Once a pickle, never a cucumber again.
User avatar
TheSuzerain
RealGM
Posts: 16,726
And1: 10,862
Joined: Mar 29, 2012

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#163 » by TheSuzerain » Mon May 30, 2022 5:07 pm

DuckIII wrote:What is your proposed “incentive”?

They already exist in the form of better tax breaks for married couples.
User avatar
TheSuzerain
RealGM
Posts: 16,726
And1: 10,862
Joined: Mar 29, 2012

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#164 » by TheSuzerain » Mon May 30, 2022 5:15 pm

And Wookie isn't exactly covering new ground here.

See William Julius Wilson's works or the Moynihan report if you want to go way back.

This article is recent/nifty: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/19/upshot/race-class-white-and-black-men.html
User avatar
SalmonsSuperfan
Starter
Posts: 2,206
And1: 2,142
Joined: Feb 14, 2019
 

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#165 » by SalmonsSuperfan » Mon May 30, 2022 7:57 pm

DuckIII wrote:What is your proposed “incentive”?

in singapore they give you a house when you get married. meanwhile, US public housing policy traditionally barred or at least dis-incentivized men from living with their families via the "man in the house rules" where mothers lost public assistance for their children if they lived with the children's father...completely absurd...the logic was that these 'welfare queens' would have more children if a man was around. love the documentary pruitt-igoe myth which, among other things, sheds some light on how public policy actively discouraged fathers from spending time with their children.

the reality is that there are a million ways the government could intervene to assist children and families, but there's no willpower because we as a society distrust government and hate public assistance and expect business and civil society to take care of everything.

also lol that the direction this thread has taken. haven't read many of the posts in the middle but i can assume it reached this point because "the blacks have no fathers and their hooligans are running wild downtown." i dunno though, i lived in chicago for years, moved away, and recently moved back. downtown and the L has me on edge in ways it never did before. probably not a good thing for the longterm health of the city if people feel unsafe in the core of the city. a curfew isn't gonna change that
User avatar
DuckIII
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 68,938
And1: 33,640
Joined: Nov 25, 2003
Location: On my high horse.
     

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#166 » by DuckIII » Mon May 30, 2022 8:36 pm

TheSuzerain wrote:
DuckIII wrote:What is your proposed “incentive”?

They already exist in the form of better tax breaks for married couples.


I know. I just want to see the particulars of the ways one might propose to encourage unwanted cohabitation. My guess is it’s not a positive incentive, but a negative one. “Live together or you don’t qualify for _____.”

Which is ludicrous and dangerous, of course.
Once a pickle, never a cucumber again.
dice
RealGM
Posts: 43,006
And1: 12,544
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#167 » by dice » Mon May 30, 2022 10:52 pm

WookieOnRitalin wrote:
dice wrote:
WookieOnRitalin wrote:
Well, if you care about the well being of children, then yes, we should incentivize those behaviors that lead to the best outcome for children. Statistically speaking, fathers in the home reduces crime and produces better outcomes for children.

we cannot reasonably incentivize fathers to stay in the home. do you not understand that? nor should that be the government's role. it's social engineering. which is highly unethical

This is not about punishing. This is about the reality is that the system is not working and producing poor results which should encourage us to try a different strategy as a society.

yes. as a society. not the government. the government has zero ability to do anything about reducing single motherhood other than withhold assistance or force sterilizations, which only results in more harm to women and children as well as encouraging more abortions. that is what your desire to dabble in social engineering would result in

additionally, the research is quite clear: higher rates of government assistance do NOT cause an increase in single motherhood. the percentage of children living in single parent households peaked around 20 years ago. the welfare state has not declined in the interim. rather it has continued to expand

My overall point, which I have yet to hear anyone really make an opposing claim, is that any discussion about violent crime without a discussion on single motherhood and fatherless homes is doomed to fail because it fails to address one of the primary catalysts for creating environments where individuals are more susceptible towards crime. This deviation increases when you account for poverty.

there isn't any question about this

90% of welfare recipients are single mothers (who represent 40% of all live births) with unfortunately the majority being black.

so? educate young people about the huge disadvantage in raising children without sufficient financial and personal support. and freaking advocate birth control

Your claims are mostly speculation. You have no way to predict what would happen if the subsidies ended. The only reference we have is the years prior to these programs being enacted.

it's common sense. just like it's common sense that ending social security would increase senior poverty. less assistance = more poverty

but since common sense doesn't cut it for, you here are the numbers. percentage of GDP devoted to poverty reduction and resultant poverty reduction percentage:

2.3 26.4 USA
4.3 57.7 italy
5.5 44.1 ireland
5.8 46.0 canada
7.1 60.1 UK
7.3 70.5 germany
7.4 75.8 austria
9.3 76.9 belgium
9.6 65.2 netherlands
10.9 69.7 finland
11.6 77.4 sweden

modest expenditure on welfare in the good ole USA results in modest reduction in poverty. shocking. of course, that causes those opposed to welfare to throw up their hands and say "see, welfare doesn't work!" disingenuous bums

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare%27s_effect_on_poverty

Image

Before Roe became law, the single motherhood rate was less than 10%.

that would suggest that less abortions would decreases the rate of single motherhood. which is ass-backwards. classic case of correlation not being causation

After Roe became law, the single motherhood rate as skyrocketed to 40% and it has disproportionately impacted the black community who represent the higher percentage of abortions. When you account for population differences (vs whites as an example) you begin to understand how this situation again disproportionately impacts the black community.

again, roe does not increase single motherhood rates. what DOES is the cultural acceptance of being a single mother. particularly in the black community. full stop

Marriage rate for blacks in 1960 was betwen 62-70% (depending on source). Now? It is 32%.
singling out particular races that have higher single motherhood rates is not productive. the discussion should be society-wide. if someone WITHIN the black community wants to show leadership and highlight that theirs is a particular problem, that is their prerogative

The expansion of social welfare in the 1960s has created a large problem that needs discussion.

the expansion of social welfare in the USA has been quite tiny in comparison to other nations. the only discussion necessary is why the richest nation on earth is so stingy when it comes to the aiding poor and suffering

We have to investigate what mechanisms have created these results and if you honestly believe that government intervention and programs have nothing to do with it, then I can understand, but I would argue that is a fairly blind position that does not really investigate the data.

you have made no attempt to honestly investigate the data. the single motherhood rate is way too high? of course. less assistance is certainly not the answer. education is
the donald, always unpopular, did worse in EVERY state in 2020. and by a greater margin in red states! 50 independently-run elections, none of them rigged
User avatar
WookieOnRitalin
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 8,099
And1: 270
Joined: Sep 06, 2002
Location: Nashville, TN

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#168 » by WookieOnRitalin » Tue Jun 7, 2022 7:06 pm

dice wrote:
but since common sense doesn't cut it for, you here are the numbers. percentage of GDP devoted to poverty reduction and resultant poverty reduction percentage:

2.3 26.4 USA
4.3 57.7 italy
5.5 44.1 ireland
5.8 46.0 canada
7.1 60.1 UK
7.3 70.5 germany
7.4 75.8 austria
9.3 76.9 belgium
9.6 65.2 netherlands
10.9 69.7 finland
11.6 77.4 sweden

modest expenditure on welfare in the good ole USA results in modest reduction in poverty. shocking. of course, that causes those opposed to welfare to throw up their hands and say "see, welfare doesn't work!" disingenuous bums

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare%27s_effect_on_poverty

Image



More people have been lifted out of poverty ESPECIALLY the black community than ever before because of the fact that the US is STILL the largest producing economy in the world because of our steadfast belief in capitalism and free market ideals. The expansion of the world economy has decreased poverty, not welfare.

The Poverty rate was 21.3% in 1950. Now it is 10.9%. This parallels the reduction of the poverty rate in the black community as well by dropping from 36% to 24-25%. Of note, the one group in the US who has seen their poverty rate increase is whites.

It is also somewhat humorous to see someone make the claim that corellation does not equal causation when your claim does the exact same thing.

In fact, welfare does not decrease poverty. It actually, may increase it.

Read on: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/gborjas/files/re2016.pdf

I mean if you believe those libtards over at Harvard. Maybe we don't. Fascists.

that would suggest that less abortions would decreases the rate of single motherhood. which is ass-backwards. classic case of correlation not being causation

again, roe does not increase single motherhood rates. what DOES is the cultural acceptance of being a single mother. particularly in the black community. full stop


[aside]
By the way, when did "Full Stop" become this phrase that suddenly you are in the appearance of "dropping the mic" on that apparently means requires zero retort. Kudos? Good job? The point should stand on its own without such a phrase. Since it does not more often than not, it is merely an indicator that your viewpoint on such an issue is completely impermeable that you are showing more of your colors than you truly understand. It just seems like a stupid expression.
[/aside]

As to the question of would less access to abortion decrease single motherhood, I do not know. We only have data from when it was limited versus when it expanded in the US. The only way to see if it is overturned and individual states begin the regulate it as they see fit and then seeing how it impacts single motherhood within those states.

The point of bringing up Roe was not to create a direct causatory link between it and single motherhood directly, but rather linking several complex components together of how we should review increased access to abortion and social welfare expansion has not decreased violent crime in the black community, but rather how it has peretuated the expulsion of the father of the home. To say otherwise fails to appreciate what social policies have been implemented that have changed some of the fundamental concepts of marriage and responsibility in society.

This as a matter of social experimentation has been an utter failure.

No one has deconstructed my original claim. Fatherless homes produce more crime.

It would see then that the opposite would be a preferable outcome. Yet, not many of our social policies reflect this.

So, my comment is this. You can find a compelling argument that refutes the claim (that I would be interested to here) and then present a counter perspective.

Less fathers = more poverty
Less fathers = more crime

We as a society need to reflect on what we do from a social policy to perpetuate single motherhood.

the expansion of social welfare in the USA has been quite tiny in comparison to other nations. the only discussion necessary is why the richest nation on earth is so stingy when it comes to the aiding poor and suffering


As was discussed, we've cut the poverty rate in half over the last 70 years and exclusively for minorities. That is not conjecture. That is just a fact.

The reason why we have a stronger economy than most of the Western world is because we are in the business of letting American citizens produce wealth. That's how the game is set.

In fact, the rules of the game are relatively straight forward and it focuses on behavior. Those who understand what behaviors generate the best outcomes typically reap the rewards of engaging in those behaviors.

The reason why many are unsuccessful has to do with the inability to value those behaviors that generate the most beneficial outcomes.

I, for one, do not want to live in a society that promotes a safety net for bad behavior. If you want better, you must do better. This is not revelation.

My grandrather immigrated from Greece (did not speak english until later). Started a business running a general store. He met his wife here (who immigrated from Ireland). That marriage produced my father who was the first to go to college. Worked two jobs. Met my mom. Made me and my sister. Still worked two jobs. Got his MBA. Then traded his blue collar for a white collar. We had a decent middle class life. Now here I am. How is that privilege?

The recipe for success is baked into every inch of my family's story.

Tell me, why is this out of reach for others? My family came over with nothing. Had no benefit of welfare. They had eachother and worked and created opportunity.

you have made no attempt to honestly investigate the data. the single motherhood rate is way too high? of course. less assistance is certainly not the answer. education is


If you honestly believe that only education is necessary to prevent single motherhood, then I do not sense this discussion going anywhere. I also find it humorous that the claim is that I have not investigated the data when what I do (pretty much daily) is do as such. The problem is that the data is often reflective of telling others a lot of what is rather inconvenient.


As to the main topic at hand. What do we do instead? What incentive do we create? I am open to ideas.

Whatever it is, it needs to start with bringing fathers into the lives of their children.

This directly means reducing the divorce rate or at the very least change how the courts handle custody in divorce. This also means reducing the amount of children produced OUT of wedlock.

Otherwise, we should start with the broken concept of the child support system that fathers unduly burden.

https://dadsdivorce.com/articles/federal-incentives-exist-to-make-children-fatherless/

In addition, the states share in a nearly $500 million incentive reward pool based on whatever the state collects. The states can get a waiver to spend this bonus money anyway they choose. However, most of the child support owed by welfare-class fathers is uncollectable. Most of them are either unemployed or have annual incomes less than $10,000. So, in order to cash in on federal bonus money, build their bureaucracies and brag about successful child-support enforcement, the states began bringing into the government system middle-class fathers with jobs who were never (and probably would never be) on welfare.

These non-welfare families have grown to represent 83 percent of child-support cases and 92 percent of the money collected, creating a windfall of federal money flowing to the states. The federal incentives drive the system. The more divorces, and the higher the child-support guidelines are set and enforced (no matter how unreasonable), the more money state bureaucracies collect from the federal government.



Those making less than 10,000 (dead beats) are non viable, thus are not obligated to pay child support. Who is left to pick up the bill? 92% of the money collected comes from the middle class child support orders.

Can we acknowledge that this system needs review when it creates incentives for states to propegate welfare distribution from divorced fathers?

The General Accounting Office reported that in 2002 that states were holding $657 million in undistributed child support.


The system is broken. The divorce court system is broken. Looks like a good place to start.

The rest seems to be cultural. Those with significant religious or traditional unbringings are less likely to have children out of wedlock, more likely to marry, and less likely to get divorced.

Less government seems to be the answer.
"As you think, so shall you become." --- Bruce Lee
ATRAIN53
Head Coach
Posts: 7,461
And1: 2,560
Joined: Dec 14, 2007
Location: Chicago

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#169 » by ATRAIN53 » Thu Jun 9, 2022 7:24 pm

BluesFest rocking down there today from 12-9 PM FYI

I just sat outside for lunch and enjoyed some live blues at the Chase Promenade (that's the corner of Michigan/Randolph in Millenium Park)

6/9/2022
Rosa’s Lounge (Chase Promenade South)
12-9pm - Daily showcase of Chicago Blues legends and emerging artists that have called Rosa's Lounge home over the last 38 years.


Shows at the Pritzer Pavillion next 4 days-
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/dca/supp_info/chicago_blues_festival14.html

I don't think teens even care about the Blues anymore, do they?
It will be interesting to see if they flock there just because it's a thing and if any trouble is a brewin.....


I remember hauling down there years ago with a group of buddies, load up on the old Metra and the first pilgramige of the summer.
The worst part was having to leave early and make that walk down Adams to catch that last 11:29 Metra home
User avatar
LateNight
Starter
Posts: 2,147
And1: 1,452
Joined: Jan 14, 2019
 

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#170 » by LateNight » Thu Jun 9, 2022 10:41 pm

I’m not sure “being from a single parent home” is the primary factor, so much as “being from a part of society without hope” (a factor that might also lead to people fleeing children and relationships).

This analysis seems very susceptible to post hoc fallacy
moorhosj
Junior
Posts: 425
And1: 350
Joined: Jun 19, 2018
 

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#171 » by moorhosj » Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:22 pm

WookieOnRitalin wrote:More people have been lifted out of poverty ESPECIALLY the black community than ever before because of the fact that the US is STILL the largest producing economy in the world because of our steadfast belief in capitalism and free market ideals. The expansion of the world economy has decreased poverty, not welfare.


Lots of countries offer higher quality of life than the US. Many of them support new parents with months of maternity leave, paternity leave, etc. They also have legal abortion. Social Security is the largest anti-poverty program in US history. Sure, US consumerism has helped lower poverty in China, but the discussion was US policy and US results.

WookieOnRitalin wrote:The Poverty rate was 21.3% in 1950. Now it is 10.9%. This parallels the reduction of the poverty rate in the black community as well by dropping from 36% to 24-25%. Of note, the one group in the US who has seen their poverty rate increase is whites.


Those are not parallel reductions at all, not even close. In your example, the Black poverty rate hasn’t even fallen to 1950s levels and this is supposed to be some grand victory? I like how you added the note at the end, it says everything about how you see the world.

WookieOnRitalin wrote:Less government seems to be the answer.


Its hard to even remember the question by the end of this rant. Try this, name all the countries with a more generous safety-net (Canada, UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, etc). Then compare their teen pregnancy and single-parent home statistics to the US. I think you’ll find that government spending isn’t driving single-mother or teen pregnancy.
Ice Man
Forum Mod - Bulls
Forum Mod - Bulls
Posts: 24,954
And1: 13,608
Joined: Apr 19, 2011

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#172 » by Ice Man » Sat Jun 11, 2022 2:02 pm

WookieOnRitalin wrote:Less government seems to be the answer.


Yet across the globe, crime rates tend to be lower in countries with large governments, and higher in countries with small governments. It's a fairly strong correlation.

Crime Rates (red the highest, green the lowest) -

Image

Government Spending (green the highest, red the lowest) -

Image
dice
RealGM
Posts: 43,006
And1: 12,544
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: OT: Shooting near the Bean, Lightfoot enacting weekend curfew on Unaccompanied Teens 16 or younger 

Post#173 » by dice » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:59 pm

Ice Man wrote:
WookieOnRitalin wrote:Less government seems to be the answer.


Yet across the globe, crime rates tend to be lower in countries with large governments, and higher in countries with small governments. It's a fairly strong correlation.

the good ole US of A does very little to support the poor. it is in the process of abandoning the middle class by weakened worker unions along with exorbitant college, housing and medical costs. and yet the right wing prescription continues to be to tax less, screw the "freeloaders" and allow private business to run unfettered. the results? more and more and more and more and more and more money gets siphoned to the rich despite americans working more hours more productively than ever for the same money as the late '70s with ever greater expenditures

Image

that's not a marginal correlation. that's practically a freaking mirror image

Image
Image

the only reason household income has gone up (despite the size of the pie DOUBLING) is that more and more families are forced to have both parents working. wanna help children? do something about the goddamn off the charts wealth inequality. you can start by taxing investment income as *gasp* INCOME TAX!

Image
Image
the donald, always unpopular, did worse in EVERY state in 2020. and by a greater margin in red states! 50 independently-run elections, none of them rigged

Return to Chicago Bulls


cron