Bears: 1st pick in 23 draft

Peelboy · Post #721 » by **Peelboy** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:46 pm

So if the rumor is right that the Texans are jonesing for #1, seems like you could get their #2 at a minimum, and maybe as high as add in #12 and then maybe their '24 #1 for our '24 #2.

Assuming the minimum, you'd have #2. I'd then auction that off - who wants the 2d best QB in the draft - Indy, Vegas, Atlanta, Carolina? If it's Indy, would take #4, their #2, and next years 1. If Vegas-Atlanta-Carolina, then they'll need to add in next year's 2 as well.

That gives you something like the #8, 2 top 8 2d round picks, and at least one extra FRP next year. The bonanza would be #4, #12, a high 2, and 2 extra FRPs next year. That seems a stretch but not completely out of question.

Assuming the low end return:
- Sign a DT like Hargreave/Payne or Tomlinson from MIN, Jones from Denver.
- Sign an OT like Brown/McGlinchey. Failing that, sign an IOL like Powers from Ravens or Seumalo from Philly
- Sign an edge rusher like Davenport/CLowney
- Sign a CB like Pat Petersen or Bradberry

Draft an edge or OT at say 8. With the 2ds, draft the other of DL/OL and a WR. With the Ravens 2, probably best available defender.

That means you have 3 new DL to go with Robinson/Jones, 2 new OL to go with Teven/Patrick/Jones, and a new WR to go with Mooney/Chase and maybe Velus. Could still use more WR, I'd love to trade the Baltimore 2 for a guy like Higgins/Hopkins who wants a new deal. That gets you a huge step forward and you'd have 2-3 FRPs in '24 to take the real leap.

If it's a bonanza, you take Anderson/Carter at 4, OT at 12, then WRs and defenders in the 2d and on, and you'd still have extra picks next year.

biggestbullsfan · Post #722 » by **biggestbullsfan** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:11 pm

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Dresden · Post #723 » by **Dresden** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:36 pm

How could they be that far off with the projections? from 120 M to something under 100M seems like a pretty big drop....

ChiefILL53 · Post #724 » by **ChiefILL53** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:37 pm

I keep hearing that Carter is a great talent, but doesnt have the motor. That makes me lean Anderson, but something tells me AZ is gonna take Anderson at 3 cuz they need edge help too. I still think a double trade down is possible, but I kinda expect us to trade down to 4 with Indy.

Dresden · Post #725 » by **Dresden** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:38 pm

RIP Bobby Hull. One of the great CHicago sports legends of the 60's-70's. Some great memories of those teams, with the Hull brothers, Tony O, Stan Mikita, Whitey Stapleton, Chico Maki, Dennis DeJordy, etc.

biggestbullsfan · Post #726 » by **biggestbullsfan** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:39 pm

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biggestbullsfan · Post #727 » by **biggestbullsfan** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:40 pm

Dresden wrote:How could they be that far off with the projections? from 120 M to something under 100M seems like a pretty big drop....

Yea they were waaaay off. Still alot but definitely was hoping for closer to 100+

CjayC · Post #728 » by **CjayC** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:07 pm

Dresden wrote:How could they be that far off with the projections? from 120 M to something under 100M seems like a pretty big drop....

I believe this figure includes draft picks into the equation and with the #1 pick (As it stands) that's gonna be pricey.

Post #729 » by **fleet** » Mon Jan 30, 2023 11:13 pm

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madvillian · Post #730 » by **madvillian** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:07 am

CjayC wrote:
Dresden wrote:How could they be that far off with the projections? from 120 M to something under 100M seems like a pretty big drop....

I believe this figure includes draft picks into the equation and with the #1 pick (As it stands) that's gonna be pricey.

Some cap guy on the Lion's blog basically said the number is fairly meaningless as most teams also have plenty of guys they can restructure or just plain cut if they need extra money for a big FA splash.

The teams in trouble really are those in the back 1/3 that need to clear money just to get under the cap. Anyone under the cap at all headed into the offseason is in fine shape. Bears have an insane amount of money however you slice it.

HotelVitale · Post #731 » by **HotelVitale** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:20 am

Peelboy wrote:So if the rumor is right that the Texans are jonesing for #1, seems like you could get their #2 at a minimum, and maybe as high as add in #12 and then maybe their '24 #1 for our '24 #2.

Assuming the minimum, you'd have #2. I'd then auction that off - who wants the 2d best QB in the draft - Indy, Vegas, Atlanta, Carolina? If it's Indy, would take #4, their #2, and next years 1. If Vegas-Atlanta-Carolina, then they'll need to add in next year's 2 as well..

Seems like a lot would need to line up for even the lower end to work out. Just for Tex to trade #2 + for #1, there’d have to be another team who badly wanted #1 to take the exact QB HOU would take and was aggressively propositioning the Bears for the pick, without that happening HOU can just sit tight and take whatever QB they want knowing the Bears won’t take one. Also HOU sucks so they know they’re not just a QB away from being great, feels like they’ll be more inclined to keep the two very good picks rather than the very marginally better one.

All the other trades you mentioned have a similar thing: teams would need to covet a player enough to make a questionable value move (which does happen a lot) AND know that the player was going to be off the board before their pick. That sometimes happens but you can’t go into a draft expecting that’ll happen not just once but 2, 3, or 4 times. Think you’re maybe just assuming that every pick you have is an intensely desired asset and that you’ll get better value in selling than using it, and you’re expecting most other teams to feel the opposite.

dice · Post #732 » by **dice** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:34 am

fleet wrote::banghead:

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i don't think he's lying, but at the same time it doesn't entirely make sense that the bears would tell him that. first of all, what's the incentive to tell him early? secondly, was the enthusiasm for trubisky a last-minute thing? if so, that's weird, if not, why assume that someone else was gonna get him and leave mahomes to the bears?

dice · Post #733 » by **dice** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 2:03 am

bears and colts tied for 3rd worst 2024 super bowl odds. only cards and texans projected to be worse

if i was a gambling man...

biggestbullsfan · Post #734 » by **biggestbullsfan** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:11 am

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ThisGuyFawkes · Post #735 » by **ThisGuyFawkes** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 4:04 am

ChiefILL53 wrote:I keep hearing that Carter is a great talent, but doesnt have the motor. That makes me lean Anderson, but something tells me AZ is gonna take Anderson at 3 cuz they need edge help too. I still think a double trade down is possible, but I kinda expect us to trade down to 4 with Indy.

I don't know. I watched a short video on Carter where they mentioned that he seems gassed in the 2nd half because he was playing too many snaps and always double-teamed. I definitely didn't watch much college football this season so I can't claim to be an expert one way or another.

Post #736 » by **fleet** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:57 am

ChiefILL53 wrote:I keep hearing that Carter is a great talent, but doesnt have the motor. That makes me lean Anderson, but something tells me AZ is gonna take Anderson at 3 cuz they need edge help too. I still think a double trade down is possible, but I kinda expect us to trade down to 4 with Indy.

Carter hasn’t been 100% healthy, that may have something to do with those impressions

TheGOATRises007 · Post #737 » by **TheGOATRises007** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:24 am

fleet wrote::banghead:

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We'll always look back on that draft.

One of the worst mishaps in NFL history.

Post #738 » by **Michael Jackson** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 1:52 pm

dice wrote:
fleet wrote::banghead:

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i don't think he's lying, but at the same time it doesn't entirely make sense that the bears would tell him that. first of all, what's the incentive to tell him early? secondly, was the enthusiasm for trubisky a last-minute thing? if so, that's weird, if not, why assume that someone else was gonna get him and leave mahomes to the bears?

Somewhere Chandler Hutchinson is laughing at Mahomes. It explains him flashing the 10 fingers though.

Is this article telling the future? Is Poles gone? I know just a typo.

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/patrick-mahomes-origin-story-with-a-new-bears-twist

Over a year after Poles is gone, and Matt Nagy is back in Kansas City going to a Super Bowl as Mahomes' position coach, Bears fans took to social media angered over something entirely irrelevant now because different people are running the show.

madvillian · Post #739 » by **madvillian** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 6:55 pm

Rich Eisen making a good point that if the Bears are going to get the most out trading the pick, they will have to convince teams they are looking for a QB, even if just via smokescreen like bringing in QBs for workouts pre draft. So Fields will have to be mentally tough and block it out.

jnrjr79 · Post #740 » by **jnrjr79** » Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:14 pm

madvillian wrote:Rich Eisen making a good point that if the Bears are going to get the most out trading the pick, they will have to convince teams they are looking for a QB, even if just via smokescreen like bringing in QBs for workouts pre draft. So Fields will have to be mentally tough and block it out.

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Sure, that would work, but all they really need to do to get the most out of the pick is create the impression that multiple teams who do want a QB are trying to trade for it. The only way they would need to create the impression that they themselves might draft a QB would be something like Houston being the only suitor for the pick and otherwise being happy to sit back and let the Bears draft DL. But let's say Houston thinks the Colts are trying to trade for the pick - then it doesn't really make any difference if the Bears sucker anyone into believing they might move on from Fields.