Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[DuckIII]

I saw it being discussed in the young core thread, but didn't see an actual Giddey thread. If this is redundant mods, please merge. I've been taking my time with Giddey and its still only 13 games, but I've seen enough now that I'm starting to form the view we should do one of three things with him:

(a) trade him at the deadline;
(b) let him walk; or
(c) sign him to 2 year deal even if it means the trade-off is a bit of an overpay.

More on that later.

I was a big fan of the Giddey trade. Still am. The big obvious downside - and a big part of why we could get him for Caruso - is that he's on the last year of his deal. Doug noted this from day 1 and has discussed it several times since and has been 100% right. Its a problem. And due to AKME's inability to trade Zach and Vuc, we will likely not be able to evaluate Giddey in the context we need to evaluate him in, because if we do resign him it won't be to play with Zach or Vuc. It will be to be the PG for a completely different team.

And in some situations that might not be that big of a deal. But here it is. Because Josh Giddey absolutely sucks at defense and is a hopeless cause to improve. He doesn't have the desire to do it at a high level as evidenced by his waning level of interest and recognition during the games. But even more fundamentally, he has no lateral quickness to stay in front of NBA wings. Nor does he have a strength advantage that might permit him to leverage that attribute against his slow feet. Nor does he have the instincts of someone like Hinrich (who actually was laterally quick) which help mitigate this weakness through anticipation.

Its not a problem solvable by Giddey himself. Its permanent and severe. But it is not a deal breaker to me.

The problem is, as someone pointed out perhaps in the Cavs game thread, for Giddey to work he has play with 4 good-to-strong defenders to make up for it. As we have seen, teams just flat out go at him, and manipulate screen actions to get him to a mismatch and then attack. So we need to see how that works - Giddey surrounded by strong defenders. But we can't. Because we have one really good defender and three pretty good defenders, one of which includes Dalen Terry who pretty obviously is a fringe 12th man type. And I guess we can include Matas at least as someone who projects as a plus defender. But its a bit of a stretch to include him today given his minutes and learning curve.

And everyone else is pretty much a negative defender, and one of them - the critical center position - might be worse than Giddey.

As such, during the one year we get to evaluate him, we will not be evaluating Giddey in the most informative context. Or in any context even remotely close to that. Its almost the opposite scenario in fact, in which we can virtually never create a scenario like the one we need to see. Giddey, Ayo, Pat, Matas and Smith? Maybe that gets close to it theoretically for getting a look? After Matas improves? That's pretty much the only combo unless you want to play Terry and, um, yuck.

So this brings me back to the three best options as I see them based on what I've seen so far.

(a) Trade him. Decide he's not the guy, and trade him for the best flexible return you can get. Doesn't matter if its worse than Caruso value, which it will be. He won't bring much. Totally irrelevant. You rolled the dice on a smart bet, didn't work. No shame, team needs to be rebuilt wisely, move on.

(b) Let him walk. Same thing, but you get to evaluate him for a whole season. Perhaps even without Lavine and Vuc here if they keep playing as well as they have been. I'd be fine with losing him for nothing to get a chance to evaluate him in that context

(c) Sign him to a two-year deal, even at an "overpay" to buy time to evaluate him or possibly even trade him when his price is fixed and he has a year or more left on his deal. He has unique offensive talents. He might be a terrific point guard you can build with. But you need more time and far superior context for evaluation before making a more significant commitment.

Based on what I see so far, I'm fine with any of those three. I'm not fine with paying a premium for him ($30 mil neighborhood) to make him a key rebuilding piece. Won't be enough time, and won't be able to evaluate him in the right context. I'd rather keep Ayo and pay him way less and keep that money unspent to remain flexible going forward as we rebuild. As of 13 games anyway.

[sco]

TLDR;

Just kidding. Good points!

It matters in so far as we have a core to build from with this group, but at this point we may not have a single player on this squad that is part of the next Bulls team that contends. IMO, at some point AK (or hopefully his successor in short order) comes to the conclusion that we can build through this strategy and decides to tank. Giddey could certainly be part of a tanking team.

In terms of what Giddey might fetch in trade, if he plays like he has so far, we MIGHT get a late 1st...and if we're tanking, maybe that's better than signing him for a "big" deal. Given that, I'm more inclined to let him play out the year and see what the market offers vs. what he shows until then. To be fair, unlike most of the roster, he's new to the system, and I'd expect improvement on both ends in the 2nd half of the season.

[DuckIII]

I'm all about giving him more time. See my explanations for options 2 and 3 - both are motivated by getting more time with him. I like Giddey. I don't love him. But I recognize that he has a unique package of offensive skills that you can't just go find elsewhere.

Its just that I only see it working with specific roster designs. I guess one way to say it is Giddey seems like the type of guy who, despite not being a franchise guy who you won't be paying franchise player money, you will still have to build a roster around as though he is your franchise player.

[Bulliever2020]

I said it in the game thread last night. I've seen enough. I don't care how we do it. I don't want to see him on this team beyond this year. The Cavs hunted him relentlessly last night for good reason. He will never be playable late in crucial games/playoff games because of this. His 3 point % has improved but I think it is a mirage. He does not have good form or a quick release. He is too hard to build around and not worth it.

[Red8911]

Give it more time. So far he’s had more good games then bad .The defense and shooting was an issue from day 1 but doesn’t mean he will never improve.

[DuckIII]

I said it in the game thread last night. I've seen enough. I don't care how we do it. I don't want to see him on this team beyond this year. The Cavs hunted him relentlessly last night for good reason. He will never be playable late in crucial games/playoff games because of this. His 3 point % has improved but I think it is a mirage. He does not have good form or a quick release. He is too hard to build around and not worth it.

I think it might be doable. Its not flexible. But that doesn't mean its not doable. It would require solid defenders everywhere else though. And even then its theoretical.

So I'd be very uncomfortable betting on it being doable - the bet being a fairly significant long term deal like say $27.5 million per - based on only one year in a context that looks nothing like that. I am concerned AK will be even more likely to make that mistake (if its a mistake) in order to "prove he was right" with the Caruso trade. As of today, for me, that is pretty much the only unacceptable outcome there is here.

[Bulliever2020]

I said it in the game thread last night. I've seen enough. I don't care how we do it. I don't want to see him on this team beyond this year. The Cavs hunted him relentlessly last night for good reason. He will never be playable late in crucial games/playoff games because of this. His 3 point % has improved but I think it is a mirage. He does not have good form or a quick release. He is too hard to build around and not worth it.

I think it might be doable. Its not flexible. But that doesn't mean its not doable. It would require solid defenders everywhere else though. And even then its theoretical.

So I'd be very uncomfortable betting on it being doable - the bet being a fairly significant long term deal like say $27.5 million per - based on only one year in a context that looks nothing like that. I am concerned AK will be even more likely to make that mistake (if its a mistake) in order to "prove he was right" with the Caruso trade. As of today, for me, that is pretty much the only unacceptable outcome there is here.

Yep, I think all of this is moot anyways because I don't think the trade market for him will be robust and AKME will most likely double down and resign him no matter what as has been their MO with players they have traded for. Just another step on the treadmill.

[Dez]

They got lit up in 3 minutes to lose by 20 in the 4th with him in the bench, while his defense is bad it's Vuc's lack of interior defence and rim protection that is the bigger defensive issue.

[dukeespn]

Ranks at the 271th in total EPM.
Offensive EPM : plus-0.2 marking the 78th percentile
Defensive EPM : minus-1.8 marking the 4th percentile

Despite of having fluke 3pt% season so far his offensive EPM is not enough to be a starting PG. His offensive EPM was also limited even when he was playing with MVP candidate, SGA.

He loves to push the pace but he doesn't have the defensive ablility to make defense-to-offense situations like Lonzo Ball has. His ability to finish at the rim is also very limited.

On the defensive end he's never been an above average defender since he's too slow to defend on the perimeter while he's not that strong to defend sitting on the paint. The only positive thing about his defense is defensive rebouding.

In one word he's another AKMEish pick. A limited one-way player who's actually not elite even on one end and bad on the other end.

Real contenders love to have elite offensive players who can create his own shots while making endless plays for teammates. They also love to have two-way players who can contribute on both ends of the floor.

What about AKME? They love to have limited one-way players who can make the team mediocre at best.

[FriedRise]

There should be a lot to like for a 22-year old who almost averages a triple double (P36 anyway, since he rarely ever gets 30 mins a game). You just wish his defense is a lot better because then he really would be the guy that you wanna have on the floor at all times since he won't actively be hurting you, like a Draymond Green.

Ideally Giddey is the guy you try to hide on defense, but when you have to surround him with Zach, Coby, and Vooch, how the hell are you gonna do that? You also need to surround him with shooters because he's not much of a long range threat himself (which we're doing with those other 3 guys).

We need to see more time IMO, including playing him with a more defensive-minded center who we don't have yet on this team. Yes we have Jalen Smith, but I honestly don't even know if his defense is that much better than Vooch.

Still though, it's nice to hear some self awareness from a player, so there's hope maybe for improvement.

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[Dan Z]

What team would trade for a half a season of Giddey?

I wanted the Bulls to trade Caruso for future pieces (picks, even if they're not the best ones), but that ship has sailed. As for re-signing him...I have my doubts that AK will let him walk, so my guess is that they'll sign him to a not ideal contract (see PW and Vuc...although PW is showing improvement).

[pipfan]

I am really worried about Giddy's future. I saw the logic in getting him (I wanted picks too, but he's young)-but he's such an odd player. His strengths and weaknesses are SO obvious. The slow release on this 3 ball is not a big deal, but his defense has been REALLY bad. I didn't realize he was this weak athletically

I have always been a PWill fan, and he's showing us some promise now (finally). I like Ayo a lot-my favorite current Bull. CWhite is fine, but I wanted him dealt last summer. Matas clearly has some potential. DTerry/JSmith/Phillips are fine as young depth pieces. But Giddy should not be a part of our young core. Problem is-who'd deal for him?

I think we're going to deal Vuc/Lavine before the deadline, and Giddy will put up some very attractive stats in a bunch of losses, and AKME will overpay him

[Dan Z]

I am really worried about Giddy's future. I saw the logic in getting him (I wanted picks too, but he's young)-but he's such an odd player. His strengths and weaknesses are SO obvious. The slow release on this 3 ball is not a big deal, but his defense has been REALLY bad. I didn't realize he was this weak athletically

I have always been a PWill fan, and he's showing us some promise now (finally). I like Ayo a lot-my favorite current Bull. CWhite is fine, but I wanted him dealt last summer. Matas clearly has some potential. DTerry/JSmith/Phillips are fine as young depth pieces. But Giddy should not be a part of our young core. Problem is-who'd deal for him?

I think we're going to deal Vuc/Lavine before the deadline, and Giddy will put up some very attractive stats in a bunch of losses, and AKME will overpay him

That's what I'm concerned about in regards to Giddey. Is the future of this team Coby, Ayo, Giddey and Matas? Right now Matas is a bit of an unknown (because he's new) and Coby/Ayo will be on expiring contract next year.

Hopefully the Bulls keep the 2025 pick.

[Future Coach]

I agree. He sucks at defense, and he is not going to get much better. The Bulls should not pay him starter money. I think his ideal role in the NBA is as a 2nd/3rd player off the bench, as he can come in for a few minutes and help facilitate the offense so that it continues to have some flow and doesn't get stagnant while starters get some rest. Assuming he is going to want a bigger contract than that role calls far, the Bulls should trade him.

[Andi Obst]

I don't really like Giddey as a prospect, but I definitely agree that it's a huge problem that the Bulls surround him with 3/4 bad defenders and no POA defenders all the time. Giddey shouldn't defend at the POA as much as he has to right now. That's just a recipe for disaster. You can tell that this confidence is at an all-time low right now.

Yes we have Jalen Smith, but I honestly don't even know if his defense is that much better than Vooch.

I actually think Jalen has been worse on defense than Vuc this season. Jalen has always been a pretty bad defender because his awareness on that end is terrible, but at least he had the shot-blocking. That hasn't been there yet.

[coldfish]

Good thread. I didn't really even see his shooting mentioned either. He fell out of the rotation in OKC for a reason.

IMO, if he accepts a pay and role commensurate with his abilities (ie 6th man rotation player) then you re-sign and keep him. If he wants or is offered big money, you just let him walk.

He should be getting a Coby White type contract. Just a little more than the MLE.

Someone brought it up in another thread but his future isn't as a PG. Its as a Boris Diaw like 3 or 4. He needs to add bulk because he is never going to be NBA PG quick.

[dougthonus]

I will throw out option #4:

Play hard ball with him in FA, and make him go get an offer from the street. You can't preemptively offer top of the market. I suspect if Giddey has to go to the street his value is going to be nothing.

Why?

Because as you noted, his trade value sure feels like it is nothing. If no one is willing to give up say a top 5 protected pick that projects into the 12-18 range for Giddey, then who the heck is going to pay him a huge contract? The fact that we know he has no trade value also means he likely has no FA suitors.

I'm not saying we have to go with option #4 by throwing it out here, but I think if he hits FA you offer the QO and a 4 year deal at slightly above MLE money with a TO on the 4th year and see if he can do something better.

[coldfish]

I will throw out option #4:

Play hard ball with him in FA, and make him go get an offer from the street. You can't preemptively offer top of the market. I suspect if Giddey has to go to the street his value is going to be nothing.

Why?

Because as you noted, his trade value sure feels like it is nothing. If no one is willing to give up say a top 5 protected pick that projects into the 12-18 range for Giddey, then who the heck is going to pay him a huge contract? The fact that we know he has no trade value also means he likely has no FA suitors.

I'm not saying we have to go with option #4 by throwing it out here, but I think if he hits FA you offer the QO and a 4 year deal at slightly above MLE money with a TO on the 4th year and see if he can do something better.

Let's say the quiet part out loud: We have no faith that AKME will actually do that. Because they traded for Giddey, they are just going to completely cave to the agent's demands so they don't appear that they lost the trade as OKC extends Caruso.

[dougthonus]

Let's say the quiet part out loud: We have no faith that AKME will actually do that. Because they traded for Giddey, they are just going to completely cave to the agent's demands so they don't appear that they lost the trade as OKC extends Caruso.

I mean, yes, but that also ruins options #1-#3

I don't actually mind the traded for Giddey. While I thought it was a long shot it would work, and it doesn't appear it would. The alternative paths were keeping Caruso or trading for #13 and selecting someone like Devin Carter (whom is already as old as Giddey).

I'd have been okay with the 2nd of those things if part of a larger rebuilding effort we weren't going to do. If you wanted to win now, probably just keeping Caruso was your best bet, but also a road to nowhere.

I think in the end, people are overly negative around the trade as much for vastly overvaluing what Caruso could bring back in a trade as much as disliking Giddey.

[coldfish]

Let's say the quiet part out loud: We have no faith that AKME will actually do that. Because they traded for Giddey, they are just going to completely cave to the agent's demands so they don't appear that they lost the trade as OKC extends Caruso.

I mean, yes, but that also ruins options #1-#3

I don't actually mind the traded for Giddey. While I thought it was a long shot it would work, and it doesn't appear it would. The alternative paths were keeping Caruso or trading for #13 and selecting someone like Devin Carter (whom is already as old as Giddey).

I'd have been okay with the 2nd of those things if part of a larger rebuilding effort we weren't going to do. If you wanted to win now, probably just keeping Caruso was your best bet, but also a road to nowhere.

I think in the end, people are overly negative around the trade as much for vastly overvaluing what Caruso could bring back in a trade as much as disliking Giddey.

FWIW, I actually like Giddey and am fine with the trade. I always saw him as a 3/4 though. If he bulks up and adds a shot, he could be an asset in that position. He just isn't an NBA pg. You need to be able to stay in front of your man and keep people honest around the arc to be considered a PG.