Will We Run The Wheels Off? When?

[Chi town]

Zach after Hawks game…

“I didn’t make it past half court without having to get back,” LaVine said about the tennis match pace of the game. “We’re sticking with the idea of what we are trying to do, guys playing fast; you have to get in shape for it. Whether we think it’s sustainable or not we have to stick to it. We put the work in for it, guys have bought in and accepted certain roles and we are trying to play fast and get up threes. And I think that gives us our best shot.”

We ran out of gas against the Grizz. Thank Silver and the NBA schedule for that. 5 games in 7 nights is crazy especially when you are #1 in pace and when you have guys out hurt and your coach sticks to a rotation.

Will we see injuries happen because guys aren’t ready for it?

Will just see more of the no gas on B2B’s?

[FriedRise]

We're one of 6 teams that have played the most number of games. There are teams that have played 3 fewer games than us today.

- December looks softer in terms of # of games played featuring only 1 back to back. They'll have over a week and a half off after 12/8 (wtf... in season tourney?), but the catch is we'll get fed Boston twice AND Milwaukee twice with Atlanta sandwiched in between.
- January has more number of games, but no 5-in-7 stretch, only 1 back to back, and half the games will be at home.
- February has a couple back to backs, but a lot of rest because of the all star break. We also play the majority of the games at home.
- March the schedule picks up a bit with TWO consecutive 4-in-7 stretches (long west coast trip). Lots of away games, but only 2 back to backs.
- April is obviously short, we have 1 back to back but we play more games at home.

For comparison: November has FOUR back to backs including this hellish 5-in-7 stretch with the majority of the games being away.

I think if they wanna commit to the run and gun, #1 pace in the league style, then they should certainly be able to do it because the absolute worst stretch has passed.

That Grizzlies game was dumb, but they somehow were still able to keep the pace up and scored 131 points against a top 6 defense in the league. When push comes to shove and they're gassed, our guys will take a rest on defense but they'll continue to commit to do their thing on offense. I think there's something that Billy could've done better to manage the minutes of his players, especially in a stretch like this; he should've let the seldom used deep bench (Duarte, Craig, Carter, THT) more burn to keep the intensity up.

[ChettheJet]

Running starts with defense, most teams can't run out of the net after a made basket and with the Bulls defense and rebounding you can't have more than one person giving up on defense and rebounding to make a break to get past half court. The fastest way to go is the old school outlet pass to get the ball ahead of the defense quicker than dribbling the ball up. Right now Vuc is the main and only noticeable rebounder, so can he find somebody getting down court?

It's not about being in shape to run, you can't have 4 guys filling the lanes on every break. Veteran players know how to catch their breath , or dog it, on defense a trip here or there, that's a skill to be learned just like getting to an open spot to get a pass on the break.

[waffle]

I think the league has obviously figured out something kind of obvious, 3's are worth more than 2's. That's a 50% bonus! So push the pace move the ball and take that first open 3.

It's weird, but in some cases the game SIMPLY comes down to who can make the most 3's. That's it. D is not that important. Rebounding...Nice? But since you are already running in the other direction not that important

IF ALL THE BULLS DO in some games is make more 3's than the other team at a high volume, THAT'S ALL they give themselves a decent chance of winning. Even against good teams.

The truth that 3>2 works in their favor

[waffle]

of course if they are not hitting their 3's...they'll get killed

[kodo]

I went through all of Scottie Pippen's scores on the Memphis game and the vast majority were the guards simply not getting back in transition & semi transition.

The Bulls may have the "shoot a lot" portion of fast pace down, but clearly they do not have the defensive aspect of fast pace down. True fast pace teams like Golden State also play fast on defense (5th in pace, 4th in defense). But they'll get there, and probably not this season.

But I do agree w/ the schedule losses. For this season we've had the crazy compressed schedule and tough opponents. We now have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league, and after this upcoming stretch of playing Orlando-Boston-Pacers-Boston-Boston-Milwaukee, we'll probably have the easiest schedule in the league. Not great if you are pro tank.

[dougthonus]

I think the league has obviously figured out something kind of obvious, 3's are worth more than 2's. That's a 50% bonus! So push the pace move the ball and take that first open 3.

It's weird, but in some cases the game SIMPLY comes down to who can make the most 3's. That's it. D is not that important. Rebounding...Nice? But since you are already running in the other direction not that important

IF ALL THE BULLS DO in some games is make more 3's than the other team at a high volume, THAT'S ALL they give themselves a decent chance of winning. Even against good teams.

The truth that 3>2 works in their favor

W/L in game, W/L in 3pm, W/L in 3%
Pelicans: L, L, L
Bucks: W, W, W
OKC: L, W, W
Mem: W, W, W
Orl: W, W, W
brk: L, W, W
uta: L, L, L
dal: L, T, L
min: L, L, L
atl: W, W, W
cle: L, L, W
nyk: W, L, L
cle: L, L, L
hou: L, W, L
det: W, W, W
mil: L, W, W
atl: W, W, W
mem: L, T, T

3 point makes correctly predicted 61% of the time, was incorrect 28% of the time, and 11% we had ties
3 point percentage was correct 67% of the time, incorrect 28% of the time, and had 6% ties

Worth noting we lost all of the ties and we lost all but one of the incorrect guesses

Another way to look at this is:

For us, defense is making a huge difference. We're winning only about 54% of the games we win the shooting battle and losing nearly 85% of the ones we don't.

[Jcool0]

This feels like the 1990 Nuggets. They scored 120 PPG but gave up 130 and won just 20 games.

[Chi town]

We're one of 6 teams that have played the most number of games. There are teams that have played 3 fewer games than us today.

- December looks softer in terms of # of games played featuring only 1 back to back. They'll have over a week and a half off after 12/8 (wtf... in season tourney?), but the catch is we'll get fed Boston twice AND Milwaukee twice with Atlanta sandwiched in between.
- January has more number of games, but no 5-in-7 stretch, only 1 back to back, and half the games will be at home.
- February has a couple back to backs, but a lot of rest because of the all star break. We also play the majority of the games at home.
- March the schedule picks up a bit with TWO consecutive 4-in-7 stretches (long west coast trip). Lots of away games, but only 2 back to backs.
- April is obviously short, we have 1 back to back but we play more games at home.

For comparison: November has FOUR back to backs including this hellish 5-in-7 stretch with the majority of the games being away.

I think if they wanna commit to the run and gun, #1 pace in the league style, then they should certainly be able to do it because the absolute worst stretch has passed.

That Grizzlies game was dumb, but they somehow were still able to keep the pace up and scored 131 points against a top 6 defense in the league. When push comes to shove and they're gassed, our guys will take a rest on defense but they'll continue to commit to do their thing on offense. I think there's something that Billy could've done better to manage the minutes of his players, especially in a stretch like this; he should've let the seldom used deep bench (Duarte, Craig, Carter, THT) more burn to keep the intensity up.

Helpful. Thanks. Certainly too heavy opponents and volume of games.

[Chi town]

I went through all of Scottie Pippen's scores on the Memphis game and the vast majority were the guards simply not getting back in transition & semi transition.

The Bulls may have the "shoot a lot" portion of fast pace down, but clearly they do not have the defensive aspect of fast pace down. True fast pace teams like Golden State also play fast on defense (5th in pace, 4th in defense). But they'll get there, and probably not this season.

But I do agree w/ the schedule losses. For this season we've had the crazy compressed schedule and tough opponents. We now have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league, and after this upcoming stretch of playing Orlando-Boston-Pacers-Boston-Boston-Milwaukee, we'll probably have the easiest schedule in the league. Not great if you are pro tank.

They do seem slow getting back and they are AWFUL at matching up with their guy.

[WindyCityBorn]

This feels like the 1990 Nuggets. They scored 120 PPG but gave up 130 and won just 20 games.

No it doesn’t. We are 7-11 when many thought we might 2 or 3 wins. We’re on track to win 30+ games.

[MrSparkle]

We’re 0-6 when Coby scores less than 20 points. In those losses, he had really bad games. Bulls don’t have enough offensive talent to make up for a bad Coby night. With him playing well, we’re a little over 500.

Vuc and Zach have consistently scored their buckets this season, but Coby has a wider hot/cold variance.

The bench has some of the lowest scoring averages in the league.

That means we need those 3 guys to play above their standards just to be a little over 500. Thin margin to win.

Wheels fall off when you trade Vuc and Zach- the Wizards couldn’t even keep up. I can’t blame energy spent or tough schedules on the record. We’re winning more than our net rating (25th place).

[RSP83]

I think the league has obviously figured out something kind of obvious, 3's are worth more than 2's. That's a 50% bonus! So push the pace move the ball and take that first open 3.

It's weird, but in some cases the game SIMPLY comes down to who can make the most 3's. That's it. D is not that important. Rebounding...Nice? But since you are already running in the other direction not that important

IF ALL THE BULLS DO in some games is make more 3's than the other team at a high volume, THAT'S ALL they give themselves a decent chance of winning. Even against good teams.

The truth that 3>2 works in their favor

I would argue that rebound is actually very important. Dominating the defensive rebound means you're preventing the other team to get extra possessions to launch x more threes. Dominating the offensive rebound means you get extra possessions to launch x more threes.

[RSP83]

I went through all of Scottie Pippen's scores on the Memphis game and the vast majority were the guards simply not getting back in transition & semi transition.

The Bulls may have the "shoot a lot" portion of fast pace down, but clearly they do not have the defensive aspect of fast pace down. True fast pace teams like Golden State also play fast on defense (5th in pace, 4th in defense). But they'll get there, and probably not this season.

But I do agree w/ the schedule losses. For this season we've had the crazy compressed schedule and tough opponents. We now have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league, and after this upcoming stretch of playing Orlando-Boston-Pacers-Boston-Boston-Milwaukee, we'll probably have the easiest schedule in the league. Not great if you are pro tank.

When I hear fast pace defense, I'm thinking of full-court press and a bunch of half-court trap type of defense. Really need high defensive IQ and stamina to do something like that.

[Infinity2152]

Shooting a ton of threes leads to long rebounds and runouts. Faster your pace, more of those long rebounds that turn into transition points for the other team. The negative of shooting a ton of threes is you're not getting free throws, which forces to the opponent to start against a set defense. Even on a night you're shooting good from three, you're probably shooting better from two, which means less rebounds/offensive possessions for the other team relative to your successful makes. 3 is more than 2, but there are costs to shooting tons of threes. Unfortunately, don't think we have anyone who can just drive and draw a foul, Lavine maybe, but shaky ballhandling.

The faster our pace and the more threes we shoot, the worse our defense will look. We have very few players good in transition defense. Even when opponents don't score immediately, they easily get into their sets or get quick open looks. Thing is, we have enough fast players and play enough guards to be quick defensively, but have nobody to QB the defense. Which of our starters are calling out defensive sets and switches?

[Chi town]

Shooting a ton of threes leads to long rebounds and runouts. Faster your pace, more of those long rebounds that turn into transition points for the other team. The negative of shooting a ton of threes is you're not getting free throws, which forces to the opponent to start against a set defense. Even on a night you're shooting good from three, you're probably shooting better from two, which means less rebounds/offensive possessions for the other team relative to your successful makes. 3 is more than 2, but there are costs to shooting tons of threes. Unfortunately, don't think we have anyone who can just drive and draw a foul, Lavine maybe, but shaky ballhandling.

The faster our pace and the more threes we shoot, the worse our defense will look. We have very few players good in transition defense. Even when opponents don't score immediately, they easily get into their sets or get quick open looks. Thing is, we have enough fast players and play enough guards to be quick defensively, but have nobody to QB the defense. Which of our starters are calling out defensive sets and switches?

Good nuance points.

How much of our defense would be solved by a strong defensive mobile big that can rebound, block shots, rim protect and defend Your PNR?

Our offense will struggle when we don’t have Vuc to get us an easy bucket but when we replace him with a good defender we will create a lot of fast break points that could offset his offensive loss.

[Jcool0]

This feels like the 1990 Nuggets. They scored 120 PPG but gave up 130 and won just 20 games.

No it doesn’t. We are 7-11 when many thought we might 2 or 3 wins. We’re on track to win 30+ games.

Bulls were projected to win 30 games and they are on pace to win about 30 games. That will probably go under once Zach & Vuc are traded. They also score 117 ppg and give up a league worst 123.9 ppg.

[WindyCityBorn]

This feels like the 1990 Nuggets. They scored 120 PPG but gave up 130 and won just 20 games.

No it doesn’t. We are 7-11 when many thought we might 2 or 3 wins. We’re on track to win 30+ games.

Bulls were projected to win 30 games and they are on pace to win about 30 games. That will probably go under once Zach & Vuc are traded. They also score 117 ppg and give up a league worst 123.9 ppg.

Zach and Vuc traded is not a guarantee. Also 30 wins is way better than 20.

[Jcool0]

No it doesn’t. We are 7-11 when many thought we might 2 or 3 wins. We’re on track to win 30+ games.

Bulls were projected to win 30 games and they are on pace to win about 30 games. That will probably go under once Zach & Vuc are traded. They also score 117 ppg and give up a league worst 123.9 ppg.

Zach and Vuc traded is not a guarantee. Also 30 wins is way better than 20.

Okay you are just messing with me. Got it.

[kodo]

I went through all of Scottie Pippen's scores on the Memphis game and the vast majority were the guards simply not getting back in transition & semi transition.

The Bulls may have the "shoot a lot" portion of fast pace down, but clearly they do not have the defensive aspect of fast pace down. True fast pace teams like Golden State also play fast on defense (5th in pace, 4th in defense). But they'll get there, and probably not this season.

But I do agree w/ the schedule losses. For this season we've had the crazy compressed schedule and tough opponents. We now have the 3rd easiest schedule in the league, and after this upcoming stretch of playing Orlando-Boston-Pacers-Boston-Boston-Milwaukee, we'll probably have the easiest schedule in the league. Not great if you are pro tank.

When I hear fast pace defense, I'm thinking of full-court press and a bunch of half-court trap type of defense. Really need high defensive IQ and stamina to do something like that.

I don't know how often GS traps, but definitely stamina to get back in transition and Kerr is famous for low minutes. No GS player even Steph plays more than 29 mpg, and key guys like Podz play 23 mpg.
12 players on GS average 15+ mpg.
Excluding Lonzo, only 6 players average 15+ mpg in Chicago.

Team transition defense:
#1: Golden State
#27: Chicago Bulls

But it's not 100% or even mostly on the new style of play, last season we played at one of the slowest paces and we were still #23 in transition defense. I think the similarity of both seasons points to a lot of our roster just isn't doing their job on transition D, and probably won't change until Billy benches veterans based on performance. There's a lot of just jogging back while the opponent is sprinting, and it's not just the old guy Vuc it's the young players.