Predict the Bulls: Buyers/Sellers/Mixed Bag

[jnrjr79]

So, we've had lots and lots of discussions about how the Bulls should approach this season and the roster. This thread is not that. This thread is predicting what you think will happen by the deadline.

For context - the Bulls are currently 2 games under .500 after the tougher part of their schedule and are now entering the soft part of their schedule. It seems feasible that the Bulls, if so inclined, could gun for a playoff seed that would keep them out of the play-in. it seems super feasible to finish 7 or 8 and at least be favored to make a playoff slot. We know AK has liked being "competitive" in the past.

However, all reports continue to be that the Bulls are interested in moving Zach and Vooch. There seemed to be a realization before the season that the former core was not going to get it done, and changes needed to be made. But you also saw some impatience for a fully draft-based approach when AK traded Caruso for Giddey. Despite the fact the Bulls could vault up in the standings, the fact remains they sit at 10th and the Sixers will likely get past them at some point. If they did a fire sale, they could probably get themselves to the 11th or 12th spot in the East and keep the pick. They also probably are not going to pay both Ayo and Coby, so it wouldn't be shocking to see them move one.

Given what we know of AK, it also seems possible that they'll try to move off of some guys, but get an immediate contributor in return, even if that player is not as good. So, if they trade Zach or Vooch, but acquire someone like Ingram, Zion, Beal (yuck), or MPJ, that would be a "mixed bag" move.

PARAMETERS:

For purposes of "sell," the outbound player would need to be one of Zach, Vooch, Ayo, Coby, or Giddey. We'll assume Matas isn't getting moved. I am not going to include Lonzo here, because if he gets moved, I think that's more them just ending the whole Lonzo experience given his extenuating circumstances, even if it otherwise really would be sort of a "sell" move. (Feel free to argue with me about that parameter).

For purposes of "buy," the Bulls would keep their main contributors, but package other players and/or draft picks to try to get an immediate contributor (Zion, Jerami Grant, whoever).

For purposes of "mixed bag," a main contributor goes out, but the Bulls get back more than role players/expirings/draft compensation. "Mixed bag" also includes a "sell" deal and a separate "buy" deal (e.g. dump Vooch to the Warriors for expiring and 2nds, but use other stuff to go get an immediate contributor).

What do you think AK does?

[League Circles]

You're missing the "none of the above" option.

I predict we don't make any notable move. Might make a small trade with a guy like Carter, Duarte, etc for a similar caliber player/contract at PF or C, but that's it.

I think the offers for Zach, Vuc and Ball will be so poor that the Bulls will decide to keep them all at least til the summer.

[sco]

I think the FO prefers to be in contention for a play-in or better spot and make a deal that would give them a chance to get through the 1st round, to show progress, if they have a preferred path. That said, this team is walking a tight-rope as to whether they are at that level, vs. just tanking enough to keep our pick.

I think the problem (that surprised me this season) is that the guys we might have thought weren't the catalysts for "winning basketball play" this season (Zach, Vuc, Ball) are the guy who AK would have otherwise targeted to trade. Without any of those 3, it's arguable that we might be 6 or 7 less win team, and 10-11 less win without all 3.

[FriedRise]

AK doesn't like to trade nor does he have much in terms of assets to bring back anything of significance. Add to the fact that we'll never be a luxury tax team, I think that automatically knocks out the "buyers" scenario.

If the Bulls are still hovering around .500 or better by the trade deadline, they're gonna stand pat. I think this is the most likely outcome.

There could be a scenario where AK gets a significant offer for Zach/Vooch and decides to move them, but I don't think they'll be prioritizing future draft picks so this would fall under the "mixed bag" category. This option is less likely because it involves a team actually putting out a good offer that AK would consider, and nobody's been willing to do that so far.

If the Bulls start dropping games uncompetitively and be out of the play-in picture completely (say, 12th seed or below), they'll be sellers. I don't see this happening at all unless we start getting ravaged by injuries.

[sco]

AK doesn't like to trade nor does he have much in terms of assets to bring back anything of significance. Add to the fact that we'll never be a luxury tax team, I think that automatically knocks out the "buyers" scenario.

If the Bulls are still hovering around .500 or better by the trade deadline, they're gonna stand pat. I think this is the most likely outcome.

There could be a scenario where AK gets a significant offer for Zach/Vooch and decides to move them, but I don't think they'll be prioritizing future draft picks so this would fall under the "mixed bag" category. This option is less likely because it involves a team actually putting out a good offer that AK would consider, and nobody's been willing to do that so far.

If the Bulls start dropping games uncompetitively and be out of the play-in picture completely (say, 12th seed or below), they'll be sellers. I don't see this happening at all unless we start getting ravaged by injuries.

I think that this is a good assessment.

Also, the teams who are in the mix for adding them don't really have much in trade assets. Although I'd be very happy to get a Kuminga or Podz from GS, or a Reaves or Knecht from LAL, but don't see them getting added.

[kodo]

Where's the "we'll do what we always do at the deadline, nothing" option.

For most teams, the play here would be to get rid of productive vets even without a great return to acquire Flagg/Bailey/Harper (literally what SAS did in getting rid of Derozan). But we know AK doesn't operate that way. While I think a few teams would be willing to take on Vuc or Lavine for just matching salary, AK wants to an equal quality of player(s) back. Which defeats the point of the trade from the other team's side.

Normally the equalizer is some heavily protected, far future picks, but we know AK has no interest in picks. Didn't want pick(s) for Caruso. SAC gave up an unprotected 1st round swap for Derozan, AK got a 3rd team involved to get rid of the pick and just save money. Just the way AK works makes it unlikely we'll be able to trade these guys.

[jnrjr79]

AK doesn't like to trade nor does he have much in terms of assets to bring back anything of significance. Add to the fact that we'll never be a luxury tax team, I think that automatically knocks out the "buyers" scenario.

If the Bulls are still hovering around .500 or better by the trade deadline, they're gonna stand pat. I think this is the most likely outcome.

There could be a scenario where AK gets a significant offer for Zach/Vooch and decides to move them, but I don't think they'll be prioritizing future draft picks so this would fall under the "mixed bag" category. This option is less likely because it involves a team actually putting out a good offer that AK would consider, and nobody's been willing to do that so far.

If the Bulls start dropping games uncompetitively and be out of the play-in picture completely (say, 12th seed or below), they'll be sellers. I don't see this happening at all unless we start getting ravaged by injuries.

AK doesn't like to trade? The whole predicament the Bulls are in these days is due to AK's trades (Vooch, DeRozan, Caruso).

[jnrjr79]

I added the "do nothing" answer for all you people who want boring answers!

[ChettheJet]

I have to first guess that there are two sides of the coin

Either scenario has some of the same questions. Does Coby White deserve a big new contract? Does Ayo rate a new contract? Do we extend Giddey? Has Phillips shown enough that he can be part of the rotation. How far has Buzelis advanced? Does Lonzo want to stay and for how much, do we want him back?

Once you have the White, Dosunmu, Giddey, Ball questions answered you can make your choices.


A) AKME have been told they have one more deadline, draft (picks or not) and off season to show Michael Reinsdorf that the team that starts next season is on a path into the playoffs. That includes the people who advise Reisndorf; Paxson, Doug Collins, the cap guy, etc. To me that means he needs to have a new center in his sights, FA or trade and might as well move Vucevic now and get something in return.

If there are any Zach options, pick the best one and GO. Not just moving his contract but the time waiting for him to lead the team to a winning record much less a playoff run is OVER. If they just can't find a trading partner who wants Zach, maybe you move on from Ayo and Coby and find a PF and C and see what Lavine can do.

This could be playing the young guys and hoping for the play in or the 10th pick or a tank and they get the pick for sure

B) AKME have been told they're done and have orders as to what to do, or not to do, at the deadline. Don't take back any long term contract for anybody. If you can't get picks then we're stuck and we ride it out. If you can get younger payers on rookie deals or some that still have some potential get them. If there's nothing to be gotten instead of worrying about Vuc and Lavine get what you can for Carter, Craig, Terry, Duarte who don't play anyway and we'll have some kids hang around. Then the new management comes in in June and they invoke their plan.

This is probably the middle of the road, 11th draft place and maybe missing the play in,

your guess is as good as mine

[jnrjr79]

Here are my predications with % of confidence:

Vooch traded: 70%
Zach traded: 45%
Lonzo traded (which I note I don't really consider being indicative of being a "seller" given his situation and upcoming UFA status): 60%
Bulls acquire a "name" from someone in a trade: 50%

[MrSparkle]

AK's shown no reluctance letting go defensive specialists... And frankly, it's kind of back-fired so far (spec. Gafford & WCJ, and Caruso TBD, depending on contract extension).

But I can see him surprising the fanbase and selling high on hometown Ayo (maybe as part of a bigger deal with Vuc). I like Ayo and can see him going either way (becoming a solid versatile starter, or remaining a mid-level bench guard). But logically, you have to see his "other-team" ceiling more in the realm of a Wendell/Thabo/Kirk/Caruso than a Lauri. He's probably not leaving and becoming a perennial all-star (although with the Bulls' luck and AK's touch, who knows).

If something like that happens, I can see us doing something lesser but parallel to the Caruso/Giddey swap. Proven role-player for a higher-ceiling gamble. Big picture, I smell a surprising trade that half the fanbase isn't going to want. There are too many sellers and poor buyers out there at the same time, and Ayo is an affordable asset. If someone coughs up a FRP for Vuc, he's definitely packing his bags. Not sure that happens.

But I could see a lateral swap for Ayo (ala Moses Moody and 2nds, or maybe trade back for the SAS pick and take Tre Jones).

[DuckIII]

Trade Vuc, nothing else.

[jnrjr79]

Trade Vuc, nothing else.

This actually seems optimistic, from your perspective.

[kodo]

I added the "do nothing" answer for all you people who want boring answers!

You asked for not what the Bulls should do, but predictions on what AK will do. So it ends up being boring.

Last deadline, KC reported AK sees this Bulls team as playoff capable and has always been in the mind that we're buyers, not sellers. So that means not really selling our players for picks, but getting back playable players in trade.

It's hard to imagine getting a better center for Vuc. You could swap offense for defense at best.
It's hard to imagine getter a more efficient SG scorer for Lavine, esp. mostly off the dribble and not just catch & shooting.

I just don't see AK getting better players back for our current players, and it would be surprising if he went for picks.

[waffle]

we are almost good. Even in the standings. We have a bunch of good to occasionally very good players.

The way we are playing now, fast paced lots of 3's is dangerous. If we are hitting? We win. If we aren't? We lose. But still, that's dangerous

PERSONALLY I think we should make 2 big trades and hopefully get back expiring contracts and picks but I kinda think other team aren't interested in providing those....

SOO, are we kind of doomed to either status quo or actually trying to win? If it's the latter, what do we need?

Size and rebounding? But does a run and gun team need lots of that? Maybe not?

to me we need someone like Buzelis is likely to become, a long front court player who can be disruptive on D and a finisher or O....too bad Billy doesn't seem interesting in developing him ASAP

I do think we are in the middlings wasteland, unfortunately, without a clear path forward....

[HomoSapien]

Does cash considerations count as an impact player?

[drosestruts]

I feel like so much of this is out of our hands.


You look at someone like Vuc - anyone who wants him will probably also be interested in Olynyk, Poeltl, Valancunias, Eubanks, Kessler, Landale, Time Lord, Nurkic.

There's a lot of centers potentially on the trade market. It could be a buyers market for teams looking for a center. This will hurt our ability to move him, unless we're willing to just take whatever.


Zach - we've talked about so much. It's difficult (but not impossible) to move a salary that size in season. Even more so with new rules restricting teams' ability to aggregate players in a trade. Also Zach is playing great and is an asset to this team, now and in years to come.

I think there's much more likely for their to be a market for guys like Coby White and Torrey Craig. Not sure what our stance will be on trying to move them.

[Indomitable]

Trade Vuc, nothing else.

Give a rim protector. Yes or a young big man

[Indomitable]

I feel like so much of this is out of our hands.


You look at someone like Vuc - anyone who wants him will probably also be interested in Olynyk, Poeltl, Valancunias, Eubanks, Kessler, Landale, Time Lord, Nurkic.

Vuk is easily the most offensively gifted.

[chitownsports4ever]

AK doesn't like to trade nor does he have much in terms of assets to bring back anything of significance. Add to the fact that we'll never be a luxury tax team, I think that automatically knocks out the "buyers" scenario.

If the Bulls are still hovering around .500 or better by the trade deadline, they're gonna stand pat. I think this is the most likely outcome.

There could be a scenario where AK gets a significant offer for Zach/Vooch and decides to move them, but I don't think they'll be prioritizing future draft picks so this would fall under the "mixed bag" category. This option is less likely because it involves a team actually putting out a good offer that AK would consider, and nobody's been willing to do that so far.

If the Bulls start dropping games uncompetitively and be out of the play-in picture completely (say, 12th seed or below), they'll be sellers. I don't see this happening at all unless we start getting ravaged by injuries.

AK doesn't like to trade? The whole predicament the Bulls are in these days is due to AK's trades (Vooch, DeRozan, Caruso).

The Bulls predicament is actually due to the fact that we are essentially still waiting on a game to game basis wondering if our pre-covid lottery picks(Coby and Pat) are gonna show up . His trades didnt fail the tank did .