Patrick Williams' Dunking Issues

[HomoSapien]

Just looking at his shot chart. As a rookie, Patrick Williams made 51 of 54 dunk attempts in 71 games. Since then the numbers look like this:

11/11 in 17 games - 2021-2022 Season

61/84 in 82 games - 2022-2023 Season

29/39 in 43 games - 2023-2024 Season

3/8 in 26 games - Current season

Williams was a pretty reliable dunker early in his career, converting on 95% of his dunks during his first two seasons. Since then, he's only making 62% of his dunks. His shooting numbers at the rim have also trended down. Williams has gotten progressively stockier over the years which might contribute to his issues, but how much of this is related to that devastating wrist injury/wrist surgery in 2021?

He also had this one-handed shot that was cross between a push shot and a floater that I thought was pretty effective. I don't recall seeing it at all this season:

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Lastly, while his three-point shooting is still pretty accurate (38%), it is slightly down from the rest of his career and I'm noticing a more pronounced hitch in his form that he didn't previously have.

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Obviously, there's no way for any of us to know but I'm wondering how much his two surgeries are limiting him. The wrist surgery was on his left hand, so that doesn't fully explain it. He's coming off of foot surgery though, and that could be impacting his lift. He has well-documented intensity limitations, but something just looks off about him to me. He looks hampered out there.

[kodo]

Williams was a pretty reliable dunker early in his career, converting on 95% of his dunks during his first two seasons. Since then, he's only making 62% of his dunks. His shooting numbers at the rim have also trended down. Williams has gotten progressively stockier over the years which might contribute to his issues, but how much of this is related to that devastating wrist injury/wrist surgery in 2021?

I think the wrist injury definitely had an effect. From the Ringer article,

He’s also never had much of an off hand, and according to Sportradar, he is generating only 0.64 points per chance on drives going left (good for 206th out of 209 players who’ve logged at least 30 drives this season).

Being almost dead last in the league going left is amazing, and I have to think the torn ligaments & surgery on his left wrist had some impact.

I also see him try to one hand rebounds with just his right, and the opposing team just takes it away from him because the ball isn't secure. There's something worse with his hands or at least just his left hand.

[GoBlue72391]

There's also the fact that he often barely even gets up high enough to cleanly dunk the ball, leading to a lot of misses. It's probably a combination of gaining a lot of bad weight (look how much thinner and athletic he looks in those early clips compared to now) which sapped his athleticism/vert/explosion and the wrist injury leading to all those times the ball seemingly just squirts out of his hands.

He thinks he's still as athletic as he used to be, so he keeps trying these wild dunks that have no chance of going in. It reminds me of after Lauri bulked up to play C, he kept trying the same dunks he used make his first 2 years but suddenly he was missing all of them because of the added weight. Having said that, Pat also misses a ton of easy, basic dunks that high schoolers can make

The one-handed push shot I haven't seen in years, I almost thought I imagined it. I think he just doesn't give a fkc. Injured or not, anyone who cares wouldn't gain bad weight and add nothing to their game year after year.

[Tetlak]

He got paid to play a game he doesn't seem to love. He has settled.

I can't remember another Bull I ever went from supporting so adamantly to disliking so adamantly in my 35 years of life.

[HomoSapien]

He got paid to play a game he doesn't seem to love. He has settled.

I can't remember another Bull I ever went from supporting so adamantly to disliking so adamantly in my 35 years of life.

I have all the same questions about his passion for the game, but is that bolded statement true? Patrick Williams has been a 10 and 4 player his entire career. Even in college, he basically averaged those same numbers. This isn't an example of a guy who started mailing it in after he got paid.

I think for two years now, I've been saying he looks like Greg Oden out there. The weight gain didn't start this season. I have to imagine the Bulls are encouraging him to bulk up to play the 4. Again, there are plenty of questions about his desire to be great, but to me, that's separate from his struggles to dunk. To me, it looks like a physical issue. He's less bouncy and he can't reliably finish at the rim.

[dougthonus]

I have to imagine the Bulls are encouraging him to bulk up to play the 4. Again, there are plenty of questions about his desire to be great, but to me, that's separate from his struggles to dunk. To me, it looks like a physical issue. He's less bouncy and he can't reliably finish at the rim.

The weight he gained this year doesn't look like good weight to me and was likely more due to the layoff due to the foot injury, the fact he's less bouncy could be due both to the weight gain and to the fact that he doesn't feel as comfortable on the foot. Both of these seem more likely to me than the Bulls are trying to get him to bulk up.

None of Pat's problems in the league have been due to not being bulky enough, I don't know why the Bulls would go that route, nor did he ever come back looking like Ben Wallace (a guy who is bulked with muscle). He just looks like he added fat, and that's again, most likely to a really, really long lay off that probably significantly impacted his strength and cardio. I just had foot surgery on Dec 17th, and won't be able to work out for another 3 months most likely. It's ridiculous how deconditioned I already am after 3 weeks. I can't imagine if I had Pat's foot problem where he basically couldn't work out for half a year.

[RSP83]

He just simply regress. Looks like he's mentally fatigue. No one to blame by himself, he needs to figure it out on his own, or he might get salary dumped near the end of his current contract, get waived by the team that acquire him, and that would be his last NBA contract.

[MrSparkle]

#9 Pat >>>>> #4 Pat

Must be a combo of injuries and depression.

[ChettheJet]

He seems to take off one dribble too early. Too long of a flight path.

On the other hand he might be like me, he's not getting the ball very often but he still sets the picks, passes the ball, gets back on defense and sees the losses just keep coming. I would have a problem with my teammates who are taking a lot of shots and even scoring well in the losses but rare NOT setting the picks, passing the ball or getting back on defense. We'd have a players meeting and I'd scream at those guys that they look great on the stat sheet but they're also the reason we keep losing.

The same screaming could come from Lonzo Ball who you can see on the court is looking at guys who refuse to step up in any aspect of the game but shooting.

[Andi Obst]

I can't remember another Bull I ever went from supporting so adamantly to disliking so adamantly in my 35 years of life.

Same here. I loved the pick, defended him a lot...but I'm just done.

But hey, I guess he has almost 5 years to turn us into fans again! That player option is looking great btw, AK!

[HoopsterJones]

You all remember how much we hated that Felicio 4 year $32m contract?

Pat’s contract is worse. 5 year $90m.

[sco]

I can't remember another Bull I ever went from supporting so adamantly to disliking so adamantly in my 35 years of life.

Same here. I loved the pick, defended him a lot...but I'm just done.

But hey, I guess he has almost 5 years to turn us into fans again! That player option is looking great btw, AK!

I am still giving him slack for another month in terms of him getting back his full game. I'm certainly not as high on his potential as I was but foot injuries really set guys back because there is so little they can do to stay in shape and keep their game sharp. I'm not a big fan of Pat focusing on paint scoring this season anyway. He should just shoot 3's this season and focus on post work in the offseason.

I am interested to see what happens to Pat if we trade Vuc. I don't expect a huge uplift, as he'd go from 5th option to 4th, but maybe a little more.

[kodo]

For me the bigger issue with the weight gain / sluggishness isn't missing dunks, it's that he can be just bad on D. Last night was a showcase, all the Pacers were getting by him regardless of size. 32 year old TJ McConnell blew by him at will. Bigger guys like Siakam and Toppin scored over him easily. Pacers had a layup line all game, and Patrick didn't help stop that even though that's his role on the team.

Even lowering expectations of our #4 pick to just a 3&D guy, he hasn't been exceptional on the D component.
There aren't great hard stats for D, but the argument for guys on D is that you're winning even though they're not scoring or rebounding much. That hasn't been the case for Patrick, his +/- relative to the rest of the team has been bottom for the last 3 years.

2025: 17th
2024: 11th
2023: 18th

Maybe he can be a positive on another roster, but with this one and at least with Vuc as his frontcourt partner, it's been a disaster defensively.

[MrSparkle]

Well, Bulls prospects declining out to inexplicable levels at 4-6y has happened so regularly, that I'm OK believing whatever conspiracy theory anybody's got.

Chandler - Y5 could barely crack Skiles' rotation, often coming off the bench for Sweetney or Othella!! Traded for a retiring PJ Brown (Meanwhile CP3 helped Chandler become an all-star)

Kirk - From Stockton 2.0, to dumped with a FRP for cap space.

Gordon - From first rookie ever to win 6MOY to out the league (tbf, mental health).

Deng - Promising rookie year until the wrist, then some ups and downs..good y3, regressions in y4-6... finally Thibs made him that 2x all-star (48 mpg program) before he became a complete shell of a player at 30yo.

Tyrus - Highlight dunked all over the Heat into a straight decline out the league after his trade.

Rose with an asterisk

Lauri - Seemed like a straight decline every season until he found his 3P% in y4... finally broke out in Utah.

Wendell - Looked like a promising defender with offensive upside, but it just kept getting worse until he became solid in Orlando, literally overnight.

Coby - More 30+ point games in his rookie year than the next few. That S3-4 stretch was so brutal the kid got $12M on an open market. Back to regressing, after a solid y5.

And of course Patrick... who IMO looked very good for a rookie. Had some huge games against Kawhi, Lebron. He looks like he's barely able to move.

Are these guys eating Giordano's for breakfast, practicing on the most crooked concrete in Chicago, and staying up drinking and smoking on Hubbard every night? Aside for Jimmy and Taj (who both debuted in NBA late in age), seems like every Bulls pick since the 90s has had a short-lived NBA prime. (Oh and Chandler... 3guys).

Everyone's 3P shooting percentages fluctuates, ankle/foot/knee/wrist surgeries galore, weight/conditioning problems... It's crazy.

[drosestruts]

For me the bigger issue with the weight gain / sluggishness isn't missing dunks, it's that he can be just bad on D. Last night was a showcase, all the Pacers were getting by him regardless of size. 32 year old TJ McConnell blew by him at will. Bigger guys like Siakam and Toppin scored over him easily. Pacers had a layup line all game, and Patrick didn't help stop that even though that's his role on the team.

Even lowering expectations of our #4 pick to just a 3&D guy, he hasn't been exceptional on the D component.
There aren't great hard stats for D, but the argument for guys on D is that you're winning even though they're not scoring or rebounding much. That hasn't been the case for Patrick, his +/- relative to the rest of the team has been bottom for the last 3 years.

2025: 17th
2024: 11th
2023: 18th

Maybe he can be a positive on another roster, but with this one and at least with Vuc as his frontcourt partner, it's been a disaster defensively.

Even with the weight gain people like Nembhard just muscled him out of the way on drives.

6'7" 215 lbs Patrick Williams got bullied by 6'5" 190 lbs Andrew Nembhard

[HomoSapien]

Pat was 225 coming into the draft. I have a hard time believing he's 215 even if that's what he's listed at now.

[dougthonus]

Pat was 225 coming into the draft. I have a hard time believing he's 215 even if that's what he's listed at now.

I believe the NBA now weighs everyone a the start of every year and corrects the numbers, so the 215 should theoretically be accurate. I thought I read that somewhere once. The college listed numbers aren't based on anything at all.

That said, can't confirm this 100% and agree that he doesn't look 215 and certainly doesn't look 10lbs lighter than his rookie weight.

[HomoSapien]

Pat was 225 coming into the draft. I have a hard time believing he's 215 even if that's what he's listed at now.

I believe the NBA now weighs everyone a the start of every year and corrects the numbers, so the 215 should theoretically be accurate. I thought I read that somewhere once. The college listed numbers aren't based on anything at all.

That said, can't confirm this 100% and agree that he doesn't look 215 and certainly doesn't look 10lbs lighter than his rookie weight.

Yeah, just went back and checked and looks like he wasn't at the draft combine so that weight may not be official.

[Ballerkingn23]

Hey the kid is just not mentality strong. I wonder if he ever used a sports therapist to see if there's some blockage on why he's so timid. Because the kid has a world of potential, so not sure what's really stopping him but whats between his ears.

[MrSparkle]

Hey the kid is just not mentality strong. I wonder if he ever used a sports therapist to see if there's some blockage on why he's so timid. Because the kid has a world of potential, so not sure what's really stopping him but whats between his ears.

Yes, but also his game just looks fundamentally lost. No go-to moves, awkward foot work, hitch in his slow release shot. Comparing his skill highlights in 2020 to now, it’s like watching 2 entirely different human beings.