The Coby and Ayo problem

[League Circles]

A lot of us like one or both of these players, but many are concerned that their next contracts won't be desirable for the team because they will be pretty young UFAs in a market that is usually mostly older players and RFAs.

If one or both would be willing to sign long term extensions this summer, how low would the deals have to be for you to want to sign them, committing the long term dollars and making them untradable for at least a few months or whatever it is.

For purposes of this discussion, assume that we don't yet know what will happen with Giddey or our draft pick (in terms of drafting a PG or whatever).

I'm not sure myself, but my instinct is that deals similar in annual salaries to what they're making now might be appealing (yet certainly may be unrealistic).

Also, as part of the question, should we offer something at all (before FA as a way to guide us)? Like even if Coby would agree to a multi year extension for barely any more money (questionable to begin with if he'd even consider agreeing), would we even want that? Even if in a vacuum it's good value maybe.

I can't decide, so help me.

[jnrjr79]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

[League Circles]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

Interesting, good info to have that I didn't know.

I wouldn't be at all shocked if neither player gets a free market offer for more than 140% of their current deals.

So would you offer them anything or not?

[jnrjr79]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

Interesting, good info to have that I didn't know.

I wouldn't be at all shocked if neither player gets a free market offer for more than 140% of their current deals.

So would you offer them anything or not?

Both players will get offers exceeding 140% of their current salary.

I would have traded Coby already and would try to do so this offseason.

I'd happily offer Ayo the extension, but he won't even consider it. I'd also consider a new deal when he hits free agency.

[MrSparkle]

Coby’s worth $14m, Ayo’s worth $8m… neither is a top-50 starting guard, so I’m not sure what we’re doing signing them (and Giddey) and blocking up the cap.

I like them, but we need an actual star guard. Unfortunately we face low top-4 odds. If we land 8-12, there are interesting secondary playmakers, but they can’t shoot; looks like more Dalen-Giddey territory.

He’s got a strong bust odds, and extremely raw, but I probably lean Maluach if we go 8-10. His defensive potential is elite. He can defend the perimeter, switch and chase 3P shooters as well as the rim. But he’d be a huge project. Would be the case for keeping Coby/Ayo, if reasonable.

[dougthonus]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

You also have to realize when these extensions kick in the MLE will be 15M. They would start at Coby at 18.5M and Ayo at 17.5M (140% of MLE). They might not be worth that much, they might be worth more. Both guys are having down years compared to last year, so would maybe consider this, maybe not, but agree with the risk here that they say no and bet on themselves.

If they play great: You have to overpay
If they don't: You don't want them anyway

Which is why you trade now IMO.

[League Circles]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

You also have to realize when these extensions kick in the MLE will be 15M. They would start at Coby at 18.5M and Ayo at 17.5M (140% of MLE). They might not be worth that much, they might be worth more. Both guys are having down years compared to last year, so would maybe consider this, maybe not, but agree with the risk here that they say no and bet on themselves.

If they play great: You have to overpay
If they don't: You don't want them anyway

Which is why you trade now IMO.

So, to be clear, you would try to trade them as soon as allowed this summer, without offering any extension. Or would you offer maybe a lowball extension to see if they take it (because there is some number at which you'd rather have them at that than try to trade them)?

Not sure when we're allowed to talk extension, but if it's before free agency starts (ostensibly before we can deal with Giddey at least per the CBA rules), I would offer at least Coby a lowball extension. I think Ayo's value to us with Ball under contract has decreased.

[League Circles]

Coby’s worth $14m, Ayo’s worth $8m… neither is a top-50 starting guard, so I’m not sure what we’re doing signing them (and Giddey) and blocking up the cap.

I like them, but we need an actual star guard. Unfortunately we face low top-4 odds. If we land 8-12, there are interesting secondary playmakers, but they can’t shoot; looks like more Dalen-Giddey territory.

He’s got a strong bust odds, and extremely raw, but I probably lean Maluach if we go 8-10. His defensive potential is elite. He can defend the perimeter, switch and chase 3P shooters as well as the rim. But he’d be a huge project. Would be the case for keeping Coby/Ayo, if reasonable.

Agree that we need a star guard. I'll check out Maluach and the other prospects. But worth noting, most star guards need the ball in their hands, which is the only thing Giddey is good for. So IMO, fo justify giving Giddey a long term deal for starting money, we need to identify and acquire the rare player who has star potential without needing the ball in his hands . Basically prime Ray Allen who can defend like Artest LOL.

[jnrjr79]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

You also have to realize when these extensions kick in the MLE will be 15M. They would start at Coby at 18.5M and Ayo at 17.5M (140% of MLE). They might not be worth that much, they might be worth more. Both guys are having down years compared to last year, so would maybe consider this, maybe not, but agree with the risk here that they say no and bet on themselves.

If they play great: You have to overpay
If they don't: You don't want them anyway

Which is why you trade now IMO.

Yeah, the sort of funny paradox here is the fact that the Bulls got these guys on such good deals in the first instance ties their hands to offer them market-value contracts for the next go-around. I agreee either would be good, either to keep or to use as trade chips, if you could extend at 140%.

[jnrjr79]

Well, this is an easy answer. They are only able to sign extensions for 140% of their current salaries under CBA rules. So, neither player will consider an extension and will become UFAs.

You also have to realize when these extensions kick in the MLE will be 15M. They would start at Coby at 18.5M and Ayo at 17.5M (140% of MLE). They might not be worth that much, they might be worth more. Both guys are having down years compared to last year, so would maybe consider this, maybe not, but agree with the risk here that they say no and bet on themselves.

If they play great: You have to overpay
If they don't: You don't want them anyway

Which is why you trade now IMO.

To my understanding, the extensions they can offer is 140% of the last year of the player's salary or 140% of the league's estimated average salary. Is the latter the same number as the MLE?

In any event, if they go that route, I would think it might be sufficient for Ayo, but not Coby, assuming Coby's current level of production is more or less consistent.

I agree on your keep/pay analysis as it pertains to Coby. For Ayo, you might sort of be in the sweet spot where you don't have to overpay and that what you can extend him for is about the right price. But IMO Ayo would need to play better than he has this season to be worth $17.5M.

The other thing, aside from whether he's "worth" it, is the Bulls shouldn't trap themselves by having a bunch of just-ok guys (or in Pat's case, a not good player) on substantial contracts, before they've found their star players. We've talked about this before, but it's related to the issues with figuring out what to do with Giddey - you can't lock up a bunch of expensive role players and then go find your stars. That's backwards.

[dougthonus]

To my understanding, the extensions they can offer is 140% of the last year of the player's salary or 140% of the league's estimated average salary. Is the latter the same number as the MLE?

Yes.

In any event, if they go that route, I would think it might be sufficient for Ayo, but not Coby, assuming Coby's current level of production is more or less consistent.

I'm not sure I'd value either of these guys more than the other. Coby's a pedestrian efficiency scorer on high volume due to his role on a bad team. Ayo's maybe a two way player, but I'm not actually that sure he's good at either end.

I agree on your keep/pay analysis as it pertains to Coby. For Ayo, you might sort of be in the sweet spot where you don't have to overpay and that what you can extend him for is about the right price. But IMO Ayo would need to play better than he has this season to be worth $17.5M.

I kind of now, when I really think of it, wonder if either guy is worth the 140%. I'm not entirely sure.

The other thing, aside from whether he's "worth" it, is the Bulls shouldn't trap themselves by having a bunch of just-ok guys (or in Pat's case, a not good player) on substantial contracts, before they've found their star players. We've talked about this before, but it's related to the issues with figuring out what to do with Giddey - you can't lock up a bunch of expensive role players and then go find your stars. That's backwards.

Yeah, agreed, this is fundamentally why I'd trade both.

[League Circles]

To my understanding, the extensions they can offer is 140% of the last year of the player's salary or 140% of the league's estimated average salary. Is the latter the same number as the MLE?

Yes.

In any event, if they go that route, I would think it might be sufficient for Ayo, but not Coby, assuming Coby's current level of production is more or less consistent.

I'm not sure I'd value either of these guys more than the other. Coby's a pedestrian efficiency scorer on high volume due to his role on a bad team. Ayo's maybe a two way player, but I'm not actually that sure he's good at either end.

I agree on your keep/pay analysis as it pertains to Coby. For Ayo, you might sort of be in the sweet spot where you don't have to overpay and that what you can extend him for is about the right price. But IMO Ayo would need to play better than he has this season to be worth $17.5M.

I kind of now, when I really think of it, wonder if either guy is worth the 140%. I'm not entirely sure.

The other thing, aside from whether he's "worth" it, is the Bulls shouldn't trap themselves by having a bunch of just-ok guys (or in Pat's case, a not good player) on substantial contracts, before they've found their star players. We've talked about this before, but it's related to the issues with figuring out what to do with Giddey - you can't lock up a bunch of expensive role players and then go find your stars. That's backwards.

Yeah, agreed, this is fundamentally why I'd trade both.

I "like" both guys, but am not that impressed, and like you I'm wondering if they're even worth 140%, especially to us as a bad team indefinitely.

That's why I'd probably offer Coby a "lowball" extension for something along the lines of the MLE only for a few years. If he turns it down, which he probably would, then I'd be much more incentivized to trade him for best available offer regardless of how bad it is.

Ayo I think is overrated by Bulls fans and redundant with Ball in the mix. I don't see much point to keeping him, but also don't see him returning much trade value.

[sco]

To my understanding, the extensions they can offer is 140% of the last year of the player's salary or 140% of the league's estimated average salary. Is the latter the same number as the MLE?

Yes.

In any event, if they go that route, I would think it might be sufficient for Ayo, but not Coby, assuming Coby's current level of production is more or less consistent.

I'm not sure I'd value either of these guys more than the other. Coby's a pedestrian efficiency scorer on high volume due to his role on a bad team. Ayo's maybe a two way player, but I'm not actually that sure he's good at either end.

I agree on your keep/pay analysis as it pertains to Coby. For Ayo, you might sort of be in the sweet spot where you don't have to overpay and that what you can extend him for is about the right price. But IMO Ayo would need to play better than he has this season to be worth $17.5M.

I kind of now, when I really think of it, wonder if either guy is worth the 140%. I'm not entirely sure.

The other thing, aside from whether he's "worth" it, is the Bulls shouldn't trap themselves by having a bunch of just-ok guys (or in Pat's case, a not good player) on substantial contracts, before they've found their star players. We've talked about this before, but it's related to the issues with figuring out what to do with Giddey - you can't lock up a bunch of expensive role players and then go find your stars. That's backwards.

Yeah, agreed, this is fundamentally why I'd trade both.

I "like" both guys, but am not that impressed, and like you I'm wondering if they're even worth 140%, especially to us as a bad team indefinitely.

That's why I'd probably offer Coby a "lowball" extension for something along the lines of the MLE only for a few years. If he turns it down, which he probably would, then I'd be much more incentivized to trade him for best available offer regardless of how bad it is.

Ayo I think is overrated by Bulls fans and redundant with Ball in the mix. I don't see much point to keeping him, but also don't see him returning much trade value.

I used to like the potential for both guys. I'm willing to see how they finish the season, but my inclination is to look to trade both of them in the offseason. Both guys strike me as bench players who aren't going to be starters if/when this team next contends and would only get in the way of the next guy getting his shot. If we can somehow turn one/both of them into a 1st round pick (even if we need to take back a longer salary as part of the deal), I think the risk/reward supports a trade.

[League Circles]

I think using Coby and/or Ayo to get rid of Patrick's contract (like trade Patrick plus Coby for a large, bad expiring contract) would be more appealing to me than a mid to late first round pick, especially one attached to a bad contract.

[HomoSapien]

I like and dislike both guy if that makes sense. They're both good, young productive players but neither is as good as you wish they were.

Last year, Coby took a big step forward but has now taken a small step back. You really wish he would've built on that.

Ayo has taken a meaningful step forward with his passing, but has also taken a meaningful step back with his shooting. I also feel like we're seeing less and less of that amazing first step that would easily get him to the basket.

Both are on pretty good value contracts. I think teams are starting realize how strategic you need to be with who you dish out money to because of apron rules, so it really wouldn't surprise me if they both end up on value contracts again.

Of the two, I like that Ayo is more of a two-way player. It's easy to envision him being a useful player in any situation and in any role, whether as a starter or a bench player. Coby is the better offensive talent, but he's streaky. Talent-wise, he's of course good enough to start but I don't know if that's necessarily a good thing. In an ideal world, he's Jason Terry off the bench -- but even then I worry that he's not poised enough late in games to be counted on. I do wonder if we're overly critical of him at times. At the end of the day, he's a 24-year-old averaging 18 and 5 and shoots well from behind the arc.

Lastly, I feel like they have good size as combo guards, but if Giddey is here long-term then I would like to replace one of them with a bigger and dynamic athletic guard. They both have similar size and athletic profiles and we need more guys that can easily catch a lob.

So long post, short --- Ayo is my pick but I also wouldn't give Coby awa for nothing.

[kodo]

I think $18M will be the bare minimum for his next contract, unless something drastic happens with his health or scoring.
The average of these players excluding Beal is $26M.

Non-rookie 17-18 ppg scorer guards:
- Simons $26M
- Bane $34M
- Sexton $18M
- Monk $17M
- Reaves $13M
- Mikal $24M
- Dejounte $29M
- Bradley Beal $50M

If the Bulls aren't willing to also offer low to mid twenties, they need to move him for some value this summer.
There's just no way his current contract of $11M will be the best he gets. Terrance Mann just signed for $15M per year for 3 years, he averages 6 ppg (8 ppg last year).

[MrSparkle]

It’s stunning that we’re going into their expiring years, but there’s a 75% chance AK trades them for next-to-nothing or resigns them to (too-)rich deals.

[Dan Z]

Coby’s worth $14m, Ayo’s worth $8m… neither is a top-50 starting guard, so I’m not sure what we’re doing signing them (and Giddey) and blocking up the cap.

I like them, but we need an actual star guard. Unfortunately we face low top-4 odds. If we land 8-12, there are interesting secondary playmakers, but they can’t shoot; looks like more Dalen-Giddey territory.

He’s got a strong bust odds, and extremely raw, but I probably lean Maluach if we go 8-10. His defensive potential is elite. He can defend the perimeter, switch and chase 3P shooters as well as the rim. But he’d be a huge project. Would be the case for keeping Coby/Ayo, if reasonable.

Maybe they could use Coby to trade up in the draft?

[WesPeace]

I would keep Ayo,trade Coby.. Ayo is good bench guard,twoway player! If you guys think you will get better guard with 2nd rounder or late 1st,forget it..

You want trade away almost everyone.. you CANT get better player for every player you trade away,math aint mathin! So I think we should keep some decent guys for 6-8th man roles, especially if its local guy.. nobody said Ayo will be star player and has to be paid 20M per on next deal.

[dougthonus]

That's why I'd probably offer Coby a "lowball" extension for something along the lines of the MLE only for a few years. If he turns it down, which he probably would, then I'd be much more incentivized to trade him for best available offer regardless of how bad it is.

Ayo I think is overrated by Bulls fans and redundant with Ball in the mix. I don't see much point to keeping him, but also don't see him returning much trade value.

FWIW, people generally think both guys would have fetched mid 1st round picks, maybe multiple 1st round picks (though likely not very high upside ones). I think if you are wishy washy on them, those are good returns relative to the risk/reward of keeping/losing and potentially having to lock in to a lot of non top 3 guys.