RealGM

As of this morning, Josh Giddey is shooting 37% from three on 3.9 attempts per game.

If we go with per minute numbers, let's compare him to Patrick Williams, widely viewed as a good shooter. I'll use per 36 numbers to balance out attempts per minute:
Giddey (this year): 37%, 4.8 per 36
Pat (this year): 35.5%, 6.2 per 36
Pat (career): 39.5%, 4.0 per 36

Giddey is presently 2nd in 3pt % of guys on the roster (behind Vuc) whom have taken meaningful attempts and is presently 3rd behind Coby/Vuc in attempts. It is hard to scale up attempts, the more you take, the more likely your percentage is to drop.

Watching Giddey, I am a bit torn on this, he still frequently hesitates, his form is still poor, he still has a relatively slow release, but he has nights like last night against Philly where he is clearly feeling it and starts letting it rip. He even had a step back defended 3 that he nailed last night, showing beyond entry level difficulty.

Just curious what people's thoughts are on Giddey's present level of shooting.

Mmmm. Vuc was a 40% 3 point shooter for 3 years, then 35% for 1 year, then 30% last year, then 45% for the first 3 months of this season, and now 30% again since the New Year.

If I can't interpret that, which I can't, I'm not going to be able to for Giddey either.

Over last 186 games he is shooting at 38% from 3 on almost 7 attempts



You don't have to be this



to be a good 3 point shooter.

I will say, improvement at Giddey's age is likelier to stick than improvement at an older age, as the young dogs are likelier to have learned a new trick, whereas with the older players the change is probably due solely to random effects.

Some factors suggesting his current level is unsustainable:
- Most of his shots are wide-open - teams will start guarding him more
- His release is slow
- His form suggests that it is more likely that his shot will be inconsistent

Some factors supporting his current level:
- He is making 3's both on catch and shoots, AND off the dribble (IMO harder)
- Teams have to respect his driving ability (arguably his greatest weapon)
- His release seems much quicker on catch-and-shoots of late...slow release only when wide open and off the dribble
- His higher % of late has been coupled with higher volume (~6 attempts)...IMO the more you take, you are more ready to shoot and your % goes up.

I don't think he is fixed a shooting problem. Because the problem with his shot is that he doesn't draw enough attention. I always think that's more important to look at than pure percentages and volume.

Generally speaking guys with poor shooting form are simply not going to draw attention into a three-point line. Also in general three-point shots are actually not very efficient. You really have to be right up near 40% to be taking a shot that is above league average in terms of overall shooting efficiency. So since for most guys it's not an above average efficiency shot, it's critical that it causes better spacing through "gravity". So that is the critical thing, and Giddey doesn't have it yet.

His form is so bad that I am curious what they do because he pops his elbow on his shots which cant be comfortable. His shot is going in but his form needs rebuilt. So yes and no

I think he is showing he the potential to be a really good consistent 3 point shooter if he puts in the work. Right now he looks confident and that step back was something I didn’t think he had in bag or ever would have.

League Circles wrote:I don't think he is fixed a shooting problem. Because the problem with his shot is that he doesn't draw enough attention. I always think that's more important to look at than pure percentages and volume.

Generally speaking guys with poor shooting form are simply not going to draw attention into a three-point line. Also in general three-point shots are actually not very efficient. You really have to be right up near 40% to be taking a shot that is above league average in terms of overall shooting efficiency. So since for most guys it's not an above average efficiency shot, it's critical that it causes better spacing through "gravity". So that is the critical thing, and Giddey doesn't have it yet.

The league average on threes is 37 percent or so.

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:I don't think he is fixed a shooting problem. Because the problem with his shot is that he doesn't draw enough attention. I always think that's more important to look at than pure percentages and volume.

Generally speaking guys with poor shooting form are simply not going to draw attention into a three-point line. Also in general three-point shots are actually not very efficient. You really have to be right up near 40% to be taking a shot that is above league average in terms of overall shooting efficiency. So since for most guys it's not an above average efficiency shot, it's critical that it causes better spacing through "gravity". So that is the critical thing, and Giddey doesn't have it yet.

The league average on threes is 37 percent or so.

Yep, which is below league average scoring efficiency (TS%). It's hard to compute exactly because there are occasional free throws on 3PA and once in a great while someone gets a 4 point play and for some strange reason the league doesn't keep track of metrics that would actually establish TS% accurately for individuals, but 37% from three is probably about 56% TS%. Last time I looked I think league average TS% overall was 58%.

WindyCityBorn wrote:I think he is showing he the potential to be a really good consistent 3 point shooter if he puts in the work. Right now he looks confident and that step back was something I didn’t think he had in bag or ever would have.

Maybe he could, but you can say that about the vast majority of perimeter players in the league.

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:I think he is showing he the potential to be a really good consistent 3 point shooter if he puts in the work. Right now he looks confident and that step back was something I didn’t think he had in bag or ever would have.

Maybe he could, but you can say that about the vast majority of perimeter players in the league.

We have proof of it in Lonzo Ball. His shot was way worse than Giddey’s. And Giddey is shooting a career high percentage on his highest volume.

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:I think he is showing he the potential to be a really good consistent 3 point shooter if he puts in the work. Right now he looks confident and that step back was something I didn’t think he had in bag or ever would have.

Maybe he could, but you can say that about the vast majority of perimeter players in the league.

We have proof of it in Lonzo Ball. His shot was way worse than Giddey’s. And Giddey is shooting a career high percentage on his highest volume.

I'm not sure what you mean by we have proof in Lonzo Ball. Obviously players can improve. I STILL don't trust Ball as a shooter, and it's partially because he still has poor mechanics, like Giddey.

The only rotation player who tries fewer 3PA/100 than Giddey on our team is Dalen Terry. And Giddey is middle of the pack in %.

So again, the vast majority of perimeter players in the NBA MIGHT become good 3 point shooters.

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:Maybe he could, but you can say that about the vast majority of perimeter players in the league.

We have proof of it in Lonzo Ball. His shot was way worse than Giddey’s. And Giddey is shooting a career high percentage on his highest volume.

I'm not sure what you mean by we have proof in Lonzo Ball. Obviously players can improve. I STILL don't trust Ball as a shooter, and it's partially because he still has poor mechanics, like Giddey.

The only rotation player who tries fewer 3PA/100 than Giddey on our team is Dalen Terry. And Giddey is middle of the pack in %.

So again, the vast majority of perimeter players in the NBA MIGHT become good 3 point shooters.

Ball was literally one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA pre-injury. I’m not talking about the version we have now.

He shot 34% from 3 last season in OKC. He started off shooting well in Chicago, had a bad run, and now he's on a good run. Looks pretty normal, I'd say he finishes around 35%. I don't think anything unusual is happening here based on his last season and +/- 1% variance.

34%-36% is more than fine especially for a PG.
SGA: 36%
Maxey: 34%
Luka: 34%
Lamelo: 33%
Booker: 34%
Fox: 32%
Trae: 33%

And these are very veteran PGs...Scottie Barnes is a year older than Giddey and developing as a Point Forward and acceptably shooting 27% from 3 while earning $45M+ per year. And these are stars ... Giddey is a roleplayer for us that we got instead of a 25th pick.

If for some reason Chicago really just wanted his 3P% to be higher, that's easy to do by just running him more like a typical wing and shooting from the corners. He shoots 43% from the corners. But as the primary playmaker he's mostly above the break, all of his 3P shots last night were above the break. And that's the same for all the guys above and why they shoot a lower %. But you would lose using Giddey or any of those guys as primary playmakers.

Basically, for me there was never a shooting problem to being with considering his job and expectation for his acquisition cost. If we want a PG that's a league leading assist maker and 3P maker like Lillard, go pay the 5 1st round draft picks and $55M salary and get that guy.

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:

We have proof of it in Lonzo Ball. His shot was way worse than Giddey’s. And Giddey is shooting a career high percentage on his highest volume.

I'm not sure what you mean by we have proof in Lonzo Ball. Obviously players can improve. I STILL don't trust Ball as a shooter, and it's partially because he still has poor mechanics, like Giddey.

The only rotation player who tries fewer 3PA/100 than Giddey on our team is Dalen Terry. And Giddey is middle of the pack in %.

So again, the vast majority of perimeter players in the NBA MIGHT become good 3 point shooters.

Ball was literally one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA pre-injury. I’m not talking about the version we have now.

Lol, for 35 games. He was definitely never special before his first partial season with us. A lot like Vuc in the first half of this season. A few dozen games doesn't define a guy.

Guys flash all the time for short periods of time. Ayo, Jimmy Butler, etc etc etc. Until you see it for a more extended period, it's probably best to guess that it might be a bit of a fluke, especially if the mechanics are poor like they are with Giddey and Ball.

He's definitely more confident and it's definitely smoother. Weirdly enough the shot that got me most excited was a little mid range set shot he made after his defender left him alone 2 games ago- he shot it like it was a layup with no hesitation and it went in. This may seem like no big deal but it showed that he has legitimate confidence in his shot.

He hit a pull up head on 3 last night with similarly encouraging confidence.

I'm all aboard the train

I look at him shoot (molasses release, bad form, only shoots when wide open) and am not willing to say he’s fixed anything without a larger sample.

But in both shooting and in defense Giddey has at least made progress.

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:
I'm not sure what you mean by we have proof in Lonzo Ball. Obviously players can improve. I STILL don't trust Ball as a shooter, and it's partially because he still has poor mechanics, like Giddey.

The only rotation player who tries fewer 3PA/100 than Giddey on our team is Dalen Terry. And Giddey is middle of the pack in %.

So again, the vast majority of perimeter players in the NBA MIGHT become good 3 point shooters.

Ball was literally one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA pre-injury. I’m not talking about the version we have now.

Lol, for 35 games. He was definitely never special before his first partial season with us. A lot like Vuc in the first half of this season. A few dozen games doesn't define a guy.

Guys flash all the time for short periods of time. Ayo, Jimmy Butler, etc etc etc. Until you see it for a more extended period, it's probably best to guess that it might be a bit of a fluke, especially if the mechanics are poor like they are with Giddey and Ball.

Ball shot 37.8 percent from 3 on 8.3 attempts per game his last season in New Orleans. He had clearly become a good 3 point shooter before arriving in Chicago.

WindyCityBorn wrote:

League Circles wrote:

WindyCityBorn wrote:
Ball was literally one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA pre-injury. I’m not talking about the version we have now.

Lol, for 35 games. He was definitely never special before his first partial season with us. A lot like Vuc in the first half of this season. A few dozen games doesn't define a guy.

Guys flash all the time for short periods of time. Ayo, Jimmy Butler, etc etc etc. Until you see it for a more extended period, it's probably best to guess that it might be a bit of a fluke, especially if the mechanics are poor like they are with Giddey and Ball.

Ball shot 37.8 percent from 3 on 8.3 attempts per game his last season in New Orleans. He had clearly become a good 3 point shooter before arriving in Chicago.

You said "one of the best in the nba".