Are we seeing addition through subtraction?

[sco]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Zach out
Huerter, Collins, Jones in
Vuc injured
PWill injured
Ayo injured
Giddey bigger role
Coby bigger role

But that raises more questions like:

Is Giddey more effective because he's a high IQ guy and more utilization means better team play?

Is Coby just having one of his streaks or has he been held back because he keeps getting put in in between PG/SG roles, but when he doesn't need to distribute, his effectiveness increases.

Is Collins a legit good C or has this team been just worse because Vuc needs plays run for him that takes offense from other guys and his defense is legit bad?

Is Huerter the guy he was in ATL, and was he bad in SAC because he can't be effective in small minutes?

Is Jones that good or has this team been worse because Ayo has been playing injured all season and we're just seeing the value of competent 2-way guard play?

Is this team better just because minutes going to PWill are now going to guys like Huerter and Matas?

Was the problem minutes going to Vuc and Pat all along and could we have found a winning team while keeping Zach?

[Chi town]

Pretty much everything above.

I’d say the biggest thing is IQ and hustle. Collins Huerter and Jones are all making impact plays on both ends because they play hard and their high IQ. They each have a role now and are playing their best.

These three support the biggest factor which is Giddey’s rise. He’s making 3s and more FTs and he has eliminated mostly his floater and now goes to the rim which is getting him more points assists and FTs.

[Ice Man]

Hmmm, it's a mighty small sample size. I'm also suspicious of arguments that say we got better with Vuc out when the first half of the season consisted largely of posters complaining that we should trade Vuc because he is hurting the tank.

That said, Collins does seem to be a genuinely useful addition (I know they play different positions, but regardless, Collins in and Pat out makes a team better). Also, for whatever reasons, Giddey is playing MUCH better than he was at the start of the year. Those things are true.

[dougthonus]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Not to be a bucket of ice water, but I think this is simply a mirage.

We're 4-9 since trading Zach LaVine. Our wins are against:
The 76ers in absolute freefall and have a worse record than us
The Raptors whom have a worse record than us and are tanking (and it took an impossibly stupid four point play at the end of regulation to force OT)
The Magic whom are really struggling including losing back to back games to the Raptors right before us
The Heat whom now have a tank worthy roster and have been awful since trading Butler (only beating tanking teams)

The best of those teams are 5 games under .500 recently.

Since these trades were made, we've won games at a pace that would be a 25 win season and have only beaten loser teams.

I think the good feelings are largely a mirage due to different players doing different things and going "oh wow, that thing is exciting" or "that player is doing a lot better now", but we had those same stretches at different points, just after 7 years of seeing Zach LaVine turn it on for stretches like a flamethrower but then know he isn't going to do it consistently makes you numb to it when it happens, but when Giddey or Coby now have a heater there is more buzz.

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

[Chi town]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Not to be a bucket of ice water, but I think this is simply a mirage.

We're 4-9 since trading Zach LaVine. Our wins are against:
The 76ers in absolute freefall and have a worse record than us
The Raptors whom have a worse record than us and are tanking (and it took an impossibly stupid four point play at the end of regulation to force OT)
The Magic whom are really struggling including losing back to back games to the Raptors right before us
The Heat whom now have a tank worthy roster and have been awful since trading Butler (only beating tanking teams)

The best of those teams are 5 games under .500 recently.

Since these trades were made, we've won games at a pace that would be a 25 win season and have only beaten loser teams.

I think the good feelings are largely a mirage due to different players doing different things and going "oh wow, that thing is exciting" or "that player is doing a lot better now", but we had those same stretches at different points, just after 7 years of seeing Zach LaVine turn it on for stretches like a flamethrower but then know he isn't going to do it consistently makes you numb to it when it happens, but when Giddey or Coby now have a heater there is more buzz.

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

Unless the wheels fall off with Coby or Giddey going out injured AK is already congratulating himself on the Giddey trade and extension and not trading Coby.

Let me say it again for the record…
- AK should have traded Vuc for 2nds at the deadline. I don’t think he will be able to trade him at the draft now.
- AK should still trade Coby for 1sts at the draft
- AK should still trade Zo for a 1st at the draft

We should be FULL TANK for 26 draft with AJ DP and Ament Boozer.

We all know that won’t happen though.

[dougthonus]

Hmmm, it's a mighty small sample size. I'm also suspicious of arguments that say we got better with Vuc out when the first half of the season consisted largely of posters complaining that we should trade Vuc because he is hurting the tank.

Look at Vuc's splits for Oct -> Dec and Jan -> Feb and you can easily see why both these things are true. He was effectively a 65% TS% guy the first 3 months (eyeballing it) and a 52% TS% guy the next two (again eyeballing it). Given he's a terrible defender and an offensive only player, in the first 3 months his offense was on fire, and was having a bigger impact than his defense. In the last two months, his offense was actually hurting the team and his defense is still bottom tier.

That said, Collins does seem to be a genuinely useful addition (I know they play different positions, but regardless, Collins in and Pat out makes a team better). Also, for whatever reasons, Giddey is playing MUCH better than he was at the start of the year. Those things are true.

Collins strikes me as a pretty average caliber center. He's decent (but not great) on both ends and plays hard and doesn't demand the ball. That does have a good impact vs Vuc, because when Vuc is playing to his normal levels instead of flamethrower levels, the offense runs way better without involving him. We become much quicker at getting into the offense which leaves more time to get good shots and don't constantly feed him to get him going.

When Vuc is giving you a blistering 65% TS% and 45% from 3, then yeah, he's pretty darn good, but we've seen enough of Vuc to guess that wasn't sustainable, and the drop off was pretty big after Jan 1. Granted, dates may not be exact, just looking at splits so easy to look at them month by month.

[Ice Man]

Look at Vuc's splits for Oct -> Dec and Jan -> Feb and you can easily see why both these things are true.

Well, yes, but it also could be that if we played Vuc now that he would have another (short) hot streak. My point being that we don't know if missing Vuc makes this team better. Maybe, maybe not. It depends what version of Vuc we would have.

Which does get to the broader point ... there really aren't players that one can rely upon in this roster. Matas is worth keeping because he's not ball dominant and clearly has potential. Giddey may or may not be worth keeping. Some have argued the worth part, and you have made a decent case as to why not.

The rest, eh. If we lost them all tomorrow by this year next year we would not miss them.

[ChettheJet]

The record isn't exactly showing a huge difference but they are playing differently and there are a lot of small reasons that add up to more of the style Billy is looking for.

More minutes for Smith. Collins is more mobile than Vuc more willing to move on defense, when he's away from the basket he isn't staying out there to get a shot which is kinda what Vuc does, Collins moves from the arc to keep the offense in motion.
Tre Jones is a real PG, not like Ayo and Coby who can play PG. Jones just sees the movement in the half court better and makes a path to the basket aware that he might pass the ball where you see Ayo or Coby see a lane and he's going to the hoop, no pass in mind.
It should be obvious Giddey needs the ball in his hands and when he does three things can happen, he can drive to the basket to get a shot, drive and kick or just swing the ball around. He rarely walks into his own shot. When Zach brought the ball up there were three things, he could shoot, he could drive to the rim or he could just give it up. Zach scored more but Giddey gets the other 4 players more involved in the offense and not standing around.
Coby is similar to Zach but he is a much more willing passer and takes those step backs when he's been hot not to just decide he should get hot. He doesn't just walk into his own shot nearly as often as Zach and Demar used to.
Huerter is a smart player who doesn't have anything to prove, he's getting catch and shoot chances, taking some shots to beat the clock and going inside when he's got size ot speed on somebody.
I would really like to see Patrick with this group of willing passers, I think he might finally cut to the lane of he knew Giddey, Jones, Huerter were willing to look for him doing it. I also think his defense would help trigger more transition chances for everybody to run more.

One thing I really dislike and maybe a healthy Williams changes it, I do not like having Phillips and Terry on the floor together. Neither is the shooter that the defense has to guard and neither is a very good ball handler, they catch and shoot or cut to the basket which is good but they get left alone and the other three draw an extra defender.

[jnrjr79]

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

What does fighting for the 10 seed look like at this point?

I see lots of posts lamenting that the Bulls are winning games, but as you point out, they really aren’t in the big picture. It’s just that the East is horrid and dropping out of the play-in seems basically unachievable.

DeMar is gone, Zach is gone, Caruso is gone, and Vooch is out. What few wins are happening is a result mostly of younger players. I’m not sure what specifically the Bulls could be doing with the roster to tank in any meaningful way at this point.

[MrSparkle]

Say whatever you will, but we can count to a 3-week stretch every year back to 2017 where the Bulls looked very promising. Whether it was the P-Bev phase, or last year Coby’s heater, or FebruLauri, or Otto’s honeymoon, or Super Niko, or whatever…

So lesson to take away from all that- don’t assume a bunch of guys shooting 60%+ will keep it up the next season.

OTOH, I do think this current crew plays with much higher IQ and cohesion. The defense, rebounding effort and passing looks better. Largely part to Vuc being out, but also Pat who is a slow and tedious decision maker. Demar and Zach are undoubtedly better iso scorers, but they make the game too simple. The off-ball movement and PnRs look much more interesting. Ayo didn’t give us an advantage in many areas; Tre is a noticeable upgrade in playmaking and shooting.

But yeah- if Collins, Huerter and Tre fall out their honeymoon, we go from a 10-play-in to a bottom-5 feeder again.

At a basic level, we’ll see how Matas’ season ends up, but the biggest win is he looks like a ROY candidate (unfortunately too late for him, as Billy kept him on the Dalen Terry program until February). If Giddey could play like this for 82 games, then sign me up. IMO it’s important they not pay him for 20 excellent games.

[League Circles]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Not to be a bucket of ice water, but I think this is simply a mirage.

We're 4-9 since trading Zach LaVine. Our wins are against:
The 76ers in absolute freefall and have a worse record than us
The Raptors whom have a worse record than us and are tanking (and it took an impossibly stupid four point play at the end of regulation to force OT)
The Magic whom are really struggling including losing back to back games to the Raptors right before us
The Heat whom now have a tank worthy roster and have been awful since trading Butler (only beating tanking teams)

The best of those teams are 5 games under .500 recently.

Since these trades were made, we've won games at a pace that would be a 25 win season and have only beaten loser teams.

I think the good feelings are largely a mirage due to different players doing different things and going "oh wow, that thing is exciting" or "that player is doing a lot better now", but we had those same stretches at different points, just after 7 years of seeing Zach LaVine turn it on for stretches like a flamethrower but then know he isn't going to do it consistently makes you numb to it when it happens, but when Giddey or Coby now have a heater there is more buzz.

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

Agreed. If anything, because his defense is so absolutely horrific, we might be better without Vuc and having Collins and Smith split the C spot. Everything else seems pretty similar to me. Though fundamentally the recent changes in the rotation have been:

Minus Zach, Vuc and Patrick

Plus Huerter, Collins and Jones

I personally don't think we're much worse if at all, but I agree with you that any perceived improvement is a mirage based on circumstances.

[MrSparkle]

Stylistically though, this is the closest thing we’ve seen to “Arturas’ vision” since our epic Nov./Dec. 2021.

He promised “fast ball with a lot of passing.” Demar, Vuc were just the funniest anti-thesis to that, compounded by Coby and Pat’s struggles and playing defensive specialists at the small guard spots (Caruso, Ayo, PBev).

Now we do actually have lots of baseline cutters, fast breaks and PnR sequences that look like quality basketball. I don’t think this stuff works for two halves against the Celtics, Thunder or Cavs… but guess what… most teams don’t.

If Vuc never plays another game in red, we’ll all be thrilled. I think AK imagined he’d be a PnR machine and passing hub, but a pick-n-pop C with bad paint presence on both ends is just about the worst asset in the league unless he’s shooting lights out from the arc (in which case you’d rather have a $10M Mo Wagner on your bench.. not 38 mpg). Vuc really derailed the whole thing - it necessitated defensive priorities at guard (Caruso, Bev, Ayo… Lonzo) which meant compromising shooting and handles, which cascaded into less skills on the perimeter (and less size, as they’d often switch to forwards since our front court couldn’t defend).

[cocktailswith_2short]

It's addition by substraction for me . I was ready to move on to the next phase .it was clear we were going nowhere with Zach and ak didn't know how to build around him ( if that's even possible).

[kodo]

We're not really better, we have a 38% win rate after Lavine's last game. We had a 43% win rate before. And the recent Ws have been against teams in the play-in tier. With Lavine we beat the Nuggets, Clippers, Bucks, Knicks and Celtics.

The season starting lineup was not built for winning and a lot of this board said that before even the first game. Coby as the primary PG, where he's terrible. With Coby + Lavine doing all the creation, that left Giddey to be a 3&D guy...which is the worst job he could possibly have in the NBA. He actually did an admirable job of trying to replace Caruso's role.

The new starting lineup just makes more sense. Giddey is the real PG. Coby is the SG, he only has to worry about buckets and less dancing around with no idea what to do. Lonzo/Tre have been good 3rd guards, and TBH better than Ayo (maybe his shoulder was an issue all season long).

But the biggest factor was dropping Vuc & Pat for Collins-Buzelis. Vuc & Pat probably takes up 75% of the words posted on this board so I'm not going to beat the dead horse but it's a huge change, even if Collins is just a regular center. Collins has a +5.0 net rating, Vuc is a -5.1 net rating. A 10 point swing is pretty huge, and yeah you'll win games you haven't been winning before with +10 points every game. Bulls are a -4 differential team, a +6 differential team is 3rd in the EC.

[dougthonus]

Well, yes, but it also could be that if we played Vuc now that he would have another (short) hot streak. My point being that we don't know if missing Vuc makes this team better. Maybe, maybe not. It depends what version of Vuc we would have.

Sure, anything could happen, but at 34, the heater Vuc was on might have been the best 3 offensive months of his entire career and was a massive outlier to anything he's done in the past. Anything could happen, but his play after that was much more in line with career norms, and I would say far more likely to be representative of what happens going forward.

Which does get to the broader point ... there really aren't players that one can rely upon in this roster. Matas is worth keeping because he's not ball dominant and clearly has potential. Giddey may or may not be worth keeping. Some have argued the worth part, and you have made a decent case as to why not.

The rest, eh. If we lost them all tomorrow by this year next year we would not miss them.

In the end, we all kind of know that we have no star players on the roster. I get why someone might want to squint at Giddey and talk themselves into it, and I get why someone might want to have a ton of home for Matas, but super unlikely either guy is a star, and we also know that it's a star driven league. When you have no stars and no good assets, then everything you're doing that isn't in service to generating more assets is kind of a waste of time.

In the end, we have a bunch of rotation players and are missing two guys better than anyone else presently on the roster in order to be a good team, and teams in that boat have a really hard time moving up, because ultimately, getting rotation players simply isn't that hard, but getting those two stars really is.

Because we have nothing else to do, we can focus on Coby or Ayo or Pat or Matas or whomever having iterative improvements and becoming better rotation players, but if we don't land a stud in the draft or have a guy make an order of magnitude kind of leap, we're really just shuffling deck chairs and will be looking at the 10 seed again next year.

It's a lousy spot to be in. Tanking is a crap strategy generally speaking best served to the completely desperate, but we should be at that point now.

[rosenthall]

Agree that we're worse now than before, but stylistically better.

However, removing Vuc and Pat from the rotation has definitely been an improvement.

For all of the bitching about Pat this year, I don't think anyone fully put into perspective just how bad he was compared to the rest of the league. If you look at the numbers you can make a case that he was the worst big minute rotation player in the league this year. He was that crappy. So replacing him with just about anybody would be an improvement.

The play we get from Zach / Smith right now is better than what you get from Vuc over the course of a season. Zach's probably playing over his head, but his motor and interior presence is a big improvement over what you get from Vuc on a game-to-game basis.

Vuc has come back down to earth in the new year and was back to his crappy ways before he got injured. If he were to return his porous interior defense and low efficiency scoring would definitely hurt the team, especially when you consider that it's less minutes for Zach to play.

[rosenthall]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Not to be a bucket of ice water, but I think this is simply a mirage.

We're 4-9 since trading Zach LaVine. Our wins are against:
The 76ers in absolute freefall and have a worse record than us
The Raptors whom have a worse record than us and are tanking (and it took an impossibly stupid four point play at the end of regulation to force OT)
The Magic whom are really struggling including losing back to back games to the Raptors right before us
The Heat whom now have a tank worthy roster and have been awful since trading Butler (only beating tanking teams)

The best of those teams are 5 games under .500 recently.

Since these trades were made, we've won games at a pace that would be a 25 win season and have only beaten loser teams.

I think the good feelings are largely a mirage due to different players doing different things and going "oh wow, that thing is exciting" or "that player is doing a lot better now", but we had those same stretches at different points, just after 7 years of seeing Zach LaVine turn it on for stretches like a flamethrower but then know he isn't going to do it consistently makes you numb to it when it happens, but when Giddey or Coby now have a heater there is more buzz.

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

Agreed. If anything, because his defense is so absolutely horrific, we might be better without Vuc and having Collins and Smith split the C spot. Everything else seems pretty similar to me. Though fundamentally the recent changes in the rotation have been:

Minus Zach, Vuc and Patrick

Plus Huerter, Collins and Jones

I personally don't think we're much worse if at all, but I agree with you that any perceived improvement is a mirage based on circumstances.

I definitely think our current C rotation is adding wins right now. At his best Vuc might be better, but like you said his crappy defense puts the team in a hole every single night that requires a lot to get out of. Zach & Smith seem like they add value more reliably, even if they're mediocre players.

Losing Zach has hurt, but losing Pat has definitely helped. He's been below replacement level the whole year.

[rosenthall]

Say whatever you will, but we can count to a 3-week stretch every year back to 2017 where the Bulls looked very promising. Whether it was the P-Bev phase, or last year Coby’s heater, or FebruLauri, or Otto’s honeymoon, or Super Niko, or whatever…

So lesson to take away from all that- don’t assume a bunch of guys shooting 60%+ will keep it up the next season.

Completely agree that this is the exact time of year when you want to avoid drawing strong conclusions about team performance. We're a mediocre group that's squeaked out a few wins against crappy teams. Some of our role players are playing over their heads, which is more common at this time of the year.

OTOH, I do think this current crew plays with much higher IQ and cohesion. The defense, rebounding effort and passing looks better. Largely part to Vuc being out, but also Pat who is a slow and tedious decision maker. Demar and Zach are undoubtedly better iso scorers, but they make the game too simple. The off-ball movement and PnRs look much more interesting. Ayo didn’t give us an advantage in many areas; Tre is a noticeable upgrade in playmaking and shooting.

I agree about the style part being more pleasing, but I don't think it makes a difference in the long run. I actually think the most stylistically pleasing basketball is played in high school by women because the play is so pure. I enjoyed their success, but I always found Thibs era Bulls pretty hard to watch because our play was so slow and congested, but it worked.

I'd bet money that simply playing DeMar ball this season would give us more wins than what we'd get with the current roster, even though it'd look worse.

Effective basketball is about finding ways to overwhelm your opponent, optics be damned.

But yeah- if Collins, Huerter and Tre fall out their honeymoon, we go from a 10-play-in to a bottom-5 feeder again.

Agree, there's not much separating this team from being putrid.

[Dan Z]

I'll start by saying that we are not a great team, but I've seen stretches of good basketball of late that I haven't seen here for a long time. So I am asking myself the question what changed? The answer is a lot.

Not to be a bucket of ice water, but I think this is simply a mirage.

We're 4-9 since trading Zach LaVine. Our wins are against:
The 76ers in absolute freefall and have a worse record than us
The Raptors whom have a worse record than us and are tanking (and it took an impossibly stupid four point play at the end of regulation to force OT)
The Magic whom are really struggling including losing back to back games to the Raptors right before us
The Heat whom now have a tank worthy roster and have been awful since trading Butler (only beating tanking teams)

The best of those teams are 5 games under .500 recently.

Since these trades were made, we've won games at a pace that would be a 25 win season and have only beaten loser teams.

I think the good feelings are largely a mirage due to different players doing different things and going "oh wow, that thing is exciting" or "that player is doing a lot better now", but we had those same stretches at different points, just after 7 years of seeing Zach LaVine turn it on for stretches like a flamethrower but then know he isn't going to do it consistently makes you numb to it when it happens, but when Giddey or Coby now have a heater there is more buzz.

My fear is that the result will be that our FO/Ownership will also buy into this mirage, and we'll double down on continuing to fight for a 9/10 seed.

Unless the wheels fall off with Coby or Giddey going out injured AK is already congratulating himself on the Giddey trade and extension and not trading Coby.

Let me say it again for the record…
- AK should have traded Vuc for 2nds at the deadline. I don’t think he will be able to trade him at the draft now.
- AK should still trade Coby for 1sts at the draft
- AK should still trade Zo for a 1st at the draft

We should be FULL TANK for 26 draft with AJ DP and Ament Boozer.

We all know that won’t happen though.

The Bulls have a front office that doesn't plan very far into the future or care much about the draft. It's madddening.

For example, if 2026 free agency is really their plan then they should acquire as many future assets as they can. That way they could do either a trade or sign and trade. Top players rarely leave through free agency these days.

Or they'd tank (starting as early as they could this year) because they'd realize how important the draft is.

Obvious stuff.

[nomorezorro]

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this is from before the heat game, but we were one of the worst teams in the league over the previous 10 games. significantly below average on both ends