Projecting Matas

[pipfan]

I did this with PWill 4 years ago (and man, I was WRONG)-where do you see Matas in 4 years?

For me, I see a Deng-like level player (where I thought PWill would end up). That's a marginal All Star who's a top 50 guy, and with very solid two-way play.

[Jcool0]

I like posting this because it's a good breakdown of his upside:

There are a lot of different avenues for where Buzelis’s career can go. My high-end projection would see him as a second or (more likely) third option on a good team. There’s always the chance a player could make unforeseen, rare developments. But for Buzelis to become a leading man on a great at the NBA level, a lot would have to go right. He would have to fill out his frame to an impeccable degree, become an excellent three-point shooter, and make outlier improvements to his handle. But if Buzelis can simply “turn the dial” in a big way, that’s an awesome player. It’s possible that he can develop his frame to the point that he isn’t pushed around as easily on defense, becomes a good-to-great three-point shooter, and gets his handle to a point where he can run second-side actions without issue. It still requires a lot of things to click, but I don’t think it’s unrealistic. And if Buzelis can be a second or third option at 6’10”, we’re talking about boatloads of money flowing into his bank account. That’s the type of players teams picking at the top of the draft should be eyeing in this class.

Even a more median outcome still profiles well financially for Buzelis while still bringing value to an NBA organization. If he’s a solid shooter who hits open shots, it’ll open up driving lanes for his above-the-rim finishing and slick on-the-go passing. Plus, given his size and versatility as a defender, he’d be one of the most plug-and-play guys in the league who could fit into—and start—in almost any system. This is where I believe he’s most likely to settle, and it’s a lucrative outcome. 6’10” starters, and even good bench players if Buzelis falls a little bit short of this mark, get paid. Every team wants size, shooting, and defense on the wing, and there’s a very attainable avenue for Buzelis to deliver all three. If Buzelis isn’t a consistent or reliable three-point shooter, still struggles with turnovers, and the strength doesn’t come along, things get more precarious. But based on the growth we’ve seen from Buzelis in these respects over the last year, I’m more optimistic about his future than that. And still, the “lesser” versions of Buzelis are good NBA players in important positions.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/matas-buzelis-and-the-path-to-big

[NZB2323]

There’s talk the NBA will have an “all-star snub” team at the all-star game of the best players who didn’t make the team. The thought is that those players would play hard with something to prove, which would make the games competitive.

I could see Matas being on that team.

[NecessaryEvil]

He’ll be better than Deng level. Much better ball handler and shot creator. Matas is a dog, Deng was awesome but skill wise he’s not seeing Matas’s upside.

[coldfish]

IMO his handle is underrated.

Overall, tough to project him. He has a lot of skills, is tall, athletic and aggressive. That's a great baseline to start from. I think his floor is solid starter.

Post all star game:
27.2mpg 13.0p 4.8r 1.8a 1.1b 46/35/82

That's not per minute or anything. I think he is already reasonably good.

Luol's career average
34.3mpg 14.8p 6.4r 2.3a 0.5b 46/33/77

Kinda crazy

[Dan Z]

I could see Matas being a "do a bit of everything" type of player like Deng was, but as NecessaryEvil points out...he's a better ball handler and shot creator than Deng. Better jump shot too. Maybe not quite the passer, but we'll see.

[rosenthall]

I voted 3, but would breakdown the probability like this:

MVP level player: 3%. Really unlikely, but sometimes there are years when a non-dominant player gets serious consideration, like when Noah finished top-5 in voting for us.

Regular All-Star: 15%. This is the realistic ceiling for him.

Low Level AS: 30%.

Solid starter: 25%.

Solid rotation piece / marginal starter: 15%. He's basically already this, so either injury or personal issues would keep him here.

Okay bench piece: 10%. Pretty much only if he suffers a serious injury that permanently lowers his athleticism.

Fringe player: 2%. Big decline from what he's doing as a rookie. Basically reserving this for the Lonzo outcome.

[WindyCityBorn]

Steady all-star. Considered one of the best two way players in the NBA.

I honestly don’t see a single major weakness other strength which will come as he matures. And playing with Giddey in this offense is going to help tremendously with his scoring output.

Taller, longer, more athletic and better shooting version of Jimmy Bulter. And I don’t think I’m exaggerating.

[sco]

I see him as a Tatum clone. Dude is an MVP candidate every year, so it's hard to predict him to be that good, but I see stylistic, build and skill similarities.

[Hangtime84]

I believe that with the combined influence of Dribbles2Much and Peter Patton's guidance, he has the potential to develop into a consistent All-Star.

Currently, I'm particularly excited about:

1. His ability to confidently embrace contact without being easily displaced.

2. The offensive opportunities he'll have now that Vuc is no longer the primary focal point.

He shows similarities to Jayson Tatum but possesses superior playmaking abilities. By his third season, we should see substantial improvement and a notable evolution in his overall game.

[NecessaryEvil]

I see him as a Tatum clone. Dude is an MVP candidate every year, so it's hard to predict him to be that good, but I see stylistic, build and skill similarities.

He’s cut from that cloth, absolutely. The mechanics are very similar.

[PJSteven22]

Steady all-star. Considered one of the best two way players in the NBA.

I honestly don’t see a single major weakness other strength which will come as he matures. And playing with Giddey in this offense is going to help tremendously with his scoring output.

Taller, longer, more athletic and better shooting version of Jimmy Bulter. And I don’t think I’m exaggerating.

That’s a Kawhi Leonard level player.

[MrSparkle]

He checks all the boxes. Better offensive potential than Deng, better defensive potential than Lauri. Maybe a rare opportunity to be a bit of both? That would put him in best post-2K Bulls pick class (1. Rose 2. Jimmy 3. Matas), IF he pans.

But need to be realistic. His numbers suggest he’s raw, needs few more years of development. Behind rookie Deng/Lauri. Hasn’t even been a target of scouting reports yet. I think Matas’ 3P shot is better than advertised, but like Coby, doesn’t matter until the percentage and volume back it up.

[GoBlue72391]

An optimistic but not entirely Kool-Aid chugging outlook is probably something between options 2 and 3. Better than the 2 ASGs Deng made, but not a 10-time AS like Pierce.

Not saying that's the most likely outcome, but I feel like there's a decent chance of that happening. Who knows though, it seems like rookies in this organization get off to great starts only to regress as the years go by. I doubt that will happen with Matas cus he's got that fire in him, but that worry is in the back of my mind.

10 is a lot, and that's a pretty wide gap between 2, so maybe there should be another option between those two. Pierce is a HOFer, after all.

There's a big difference between someone who sneaks into an ASG or two and someone who makes, say, 4-7, but short of a HOF career like Pierce.

[GoBlue72391]

He checks all the boxes. Better offensive potential than Deng, better defensive potential than Lauri. Maybe a rare opportunity to be a bit of both? That would put him in best post-2K Bulls pick class (1. Rose 2. Jimmy 3. Matas), IF he pans.

But need to be realistic. His numbers suggest he’s raw, needs few more years of development. Behind rookie Deng/Lauri. Hasn’t even been a target of scouting reports yet. I think Matas’ 3P shot is better than advertised, but like Coby, doesn’t matter until the percentage and volume back it up.

Deng and Lauri are two of my most favorite recent Bulls, so a hybrid of both would be great.

[Chi town]

I believe that with the combined influence of Dribbles2Much and Peter Patton's guidance, he has the potential to develop into a consistent All-Star.

Currently, I'm particularly excited about:

1. His ability to confidently embrace contact without being easily displaced.

2. The offensive opportunities he'll have now that Vuc is no longer the primary focal point.

He shows similarities to Jayson Tatum but possesses superior playmaking abilities. By his third season, we should see substantial improvement and a notable evolution in his overall game.

I think Patton is a big deal in his shot development.

Buz is blessed with an elite PG that will set him up well as he grows to reach his full potential.

I see a high ceiling with his 3 ball (volume and percentage) and FTs. Those combos create an elite efficient scorer. Add in his handle to create for himself and others with his height that can shoot and finish over the top of others…

We have a young stud who has the framework of a an MVP ceiling and it looks like the mindset too. Now we will find out if he has the IQ and work ethic to get there because MVPs require all of it.

[KissedByaRose1]

I voted option 2. I think his ceiling is the second best guy on a title team and he's already got so many awesome complimentary skills. I really would like to see him run the offense for 5-7 minutes tonight against this tanking Wizards team.

[Shill]

I went with steady all-star.

He has all of the tools. The question is can he consistently produce, or will he sporadically show flashes?

That's the thing that's impossible to project.

[kodo]

He’ll be better than Deng level. Much better ball handler and shot creator. Matas is a dog, Deng was awesome but skill wise he’s not seeing Matas’s upside.

Better athlete than Deng. Far better handles. Better 3P shooter. Longer. Much better vertical. So I had to vote higher than Deng.
But at the same time he could not make AS if the team doesn't win games. Evan Mobley isn't an all star if CLE never got Donovan Mitchell and was winning about 40 games.

[ghostinthepost1]

Saying that he'll be a steady all-star felt like a step too far for me.

There are plenty of amazing NBA players who at best were/are fringe all-stars. Danny Granger had a pretty impressive 4 year run and made 1 all-star. Zach averaged 25+ for 4 years in a row and made 2 all-star games. All-star appearances are too closely tied to team success and I don't see the Bulls becoming a team in the next few years that's at the top of the East.

That being said Matas has all the tools to turn into one of the 30 best players in the NBA. The biggest weakness for him coming out of the draft was his shooting and at this point I've got ZERO concern about him turning into, at worst, a good catch-and-shoot guy. His handle already looks really good for someone of his size so it'll be interesting to see if he can add some off the dribble shooting to his game.

He reminds me a lot of Lamar Odom, someone who never made an all-star game, in terms of skill but is clearly going to be a much better shooter and significantly more aggressive than Odom ever was.