Lotto odds based on tomorrow's play-in

Post #1 » by **dougthonus** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:46 pm

Dallas win/Miami win: 9.4% (11th)
Dallas loss/Miami win: 8.25% (11th/12th tie)
Dallas win/Miami loss: 7.1% (12th)
Dallas loss/Miami loss: 6.4% (12th/13th tie)

TheSuzerain · Post #2 » by **TheSuzerain** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:24 pm

Go Mavs and Heat! Especially Heat!

Post #3 » by **Ice Man** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:13 pm

The odds of getting the #1 pick for each of Doug's four scenarios -

2%
1.65%
1.3%
1.25%

Hey, every little bit helps.

WindyCityBorn · Post #4 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:20 pm

Ice Man wrote:The odds of getting the #1 pick for each of Doug's four scenarios -

2%
1.65%
1.3%
1.25%

Hey, every little bit helps.

I would be ecstatic with top 4.

Jahensle · Post #5 » by **Jahensle** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:35 pm

If both mavs and heat win, we will be able to pickup anyone who might slide a little, like Matas last year.

pipfan · Post #6 » by **pipfan** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 4:00 am

I think tonight's a big one for us-moving up to 11th would be great (I think there are 11 top prospects in this draft)

Also, Memphis moves into the lotto, and Wash doesn't get a 1st
Atl also might sacrifice the Sac pick (it'd be a coin flip for 12/13, and Sac's pick is top 12 protected)
Miami would move their pick to OKC

That's 3 firsts that could move to the Western Conference

jc23 · Post #7 » by **jc23** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 2:02 pm

had this same question, thanks Doug!

FriedRise · Post #8 » by **FriedRise** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 4:49 pm

Read on Twitter

Donkedave · Post #9 » by **Donkedave** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 11:48 pm

FriedRise wrote:

Read on Twitter

They made a mistake on that one, didn’t have Dallas pick if both Miami and Dallas win! lol

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=dHcsOpeadRPZpWFbJ5MgfQ

NecessaryEvil · Post #10 » by **NecessaryEvil** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 11:57 pm

Miami and Dallas both should win. If Kyrie were playing it would be a definite win.

Praying for 11

rosenthall · Post #11 » by **rosenthall** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:28 am

Jahensle wrote:If both mavs and heat win, we will be able to pickup anyone who might slide a little, like Matas last year.

I think this is a really underrated point. A lot of the time it's not just your chance at getting into the top 4, it's being in a position to catch the guy that falls.

The difference between Matas Buzelis and Devin Carter for this franchise is absolutely huge. If you look at past lotto history, there's usually someone in the 10-14 range who ends up being really good. Domantas Sabonis, Halliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Williams, etc.

My takeaway from the end of the season is that were an improved, more cohesive team than we were before but we're definitely at least one big rock away from being a threat to win a playoff series. Even if we don't get into the top 4, we still need to find a way to get another Matas.

bledredwine · Post #12 » by **bledredwine** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:55 am

WindyCityBorn wrote:
Ice Man wrote:The odds of getting the #1 pick for each of Doug's four scenarios -

2%
1.65%
1.3%
1.25%

Hey, every little bit helps.

I would be ecstatic with top 4.

I might celebrate, it's been so long.

Post #13 » by **dougthonus** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:38 am

NecessaryEvil wrote:Miami and Dallas both should win. If Kyrie were playing it would be a definite win.

Praying for 11

One down, one to go.

Jcool0 · Post #14 » by **Jcool0** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:39 am

1 down.... 1 to go.

Dominator83 · Post #15 » by **Dominator83** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:43 am

Well atleast the worst case scenario has been avoided. Go Mavs!

WindyCityBorn · Post #16 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:56 am

How does a tie with Dallas work? A coin flip?

ChicagoSportsFan21 · Post #17 » by **ChicagoSportsFan21** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:14 am

WindyCityBorn wrote:How does a tie with Dallas work? A coin flip?

Yes, a coin flip

Truebiscuit · Post #18 » by **Truebiscuit** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:19 am

Dallas is getting WHOOPED

jump · Post #19 » by **jump** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:54 am

If Dallas loses tonight, why would they move ahead of Bulls for a better pick? Same record, they advanced further in the plan-in, and the beat the Bulls twice.

GuardianEnzo · Post #20 » by **GuardianEnzo** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:09 am

jump wrote:If Dallas loses tonight, why would they move ahead of Bulls for a better pick? Same record, they advanced further in the plan-in, and the beat the Bulls twice.

No tiebreakers apply and the play-in has no bearing on anything except what it's designed to determine, the final playoff qualifiers. It now comes down to a coin flip.