2019 NBA Re-Draft

[drosestruts]

It's the offseason, news is slow, we're all talking about the draft. I thought it'd be interesting to revisit an older draft - in this case 2019.

I think the learning curve is growing longer and longer in the NBA these days - many don't have the patience for it.

I also believe that no re-draft will ever fall the same way it happened. There's so much emphasis on getting the highest pick possible, when there's almost always impact players drafted later.

Anyways, if I were re-picking the 2019 draft these would be my picks - player name (where they were originally drafted).


1. Ja Morant (2) - clear number one
2. Darius Garland (5) - lead guard on a contender
3. Tyler Herro (13) - volume and efficiency as a scorer
4. Zion Williamson (1) - injuries aside, when he plays he's still very good. Hard to fault those that have him higher or lower
5. Coby White (7) - Did you know Coby leads the 2019 NBA draft class in games played
6. Daniel Gafford (38) - probably the biggest jump from where drafted to where I'd take them now
7. Cameron Johnson (11)
8. Nic Claxton (31) - Was in the DPOY conversation just a year ago
9. Ty Jerome (24) - As become an important piece for a contender, likely to get paid this offseason.
10. De'Andre Hunter (4) - even underwhelming 3&d guys will always have value
11. PJ Washington (12) - see above
12. Jordan Poole (28) - yeah he's become a bit of a meme, but he played an important role for a championship team
13. Rui Hachimura (9)
14. RJ Barrett (3)

Stopping at the lottery because this quickly gets ugly. Two actual lottery picks (Culver and Langford) are already out of the league. Two more (Hayes and Reddish) are hanging on by a thread.

[Indomitable]

It's the offseason, news is slow, we're all talking about the draft. I thought it'd be interesting to revisit an older draft - in this case 2019.

I think the learning curve is growing longer and longer in the NBA these days - many don't have the patience for it.

I also believe that no re-draft will ever fall the same way it happened. There's so much emphasis on getting the highest pick possible, when there's almost always impact players drafted later.

Anyways, if I were re-picking the 2019 draft these would be my picks - player name (where they were originally drafted).


1. Ja Morant (2) - clear number one
2. Darius Garland (5) - lead guard on a contender
3. Tyler Herro (13) - volume and efficiency as a scorer
4. Zion Williamson (1) - injuries aside, when he plays he's still very good. Hard to fault those that have him higher or lower
5. Coby White (7) - Did you know Coby leads the 2019 NBA draft class in games played
6. Daniel Gafford (38) - probably the biggest jump from where drafted to where I'd take them now
7. Cameron Johnson (11)
8. Nic Claxton (31) - Was in the DPOY conversation just a year ago
9. Ty Jerome (24) - As become an important piece for a contender, likely to get paid this offseason.
10. De'Andre Hunter (4) - even underwhelming 3&d guys will always have value
11. PJ Washington (12) - see above
12. Jordan Poole (28) - yeah he's become a bit of a meme, but he played an important role for a championship team
13. Rui Hachimura (9)
14. RJ Barrett (3)

Stopping at the lottery because this quickly gets ugly. Two actual lottery picks (Culver and Langford) are already out of the league. Two more (Hayes and Reddish) are hanging on by a thread.

Herro is not above Zion. Zion is still the second best talent.

[sco]

It's the offseason, news is slow, we're all talking about the draft. I thought it'd be interesting to revisit an older draft - in this case 2019.

I think the learning curve is growing longer and longer in the NBA these days - many don't have the patience for it.

I also believe that no re-draft will ever fall the same way it happened. There's so much emphasis on getting the highest pick possible, when there's almost always impact players drafted later.

Anyways, if I were re-picking the 2019 draft these would be my picks - player name (where they were originally drafted).


1. Ja Morant (2) - clear number one
2. Darius Garland (5) - lead guard on a contender
3. Tyler Herro (13) - volume and efficiency as a scorer
4. Zion Williamson (1) - injuries aside, when he plays he's still very good. Hard to fault those that have him higher or lower
5. Coby White (7) - Did you know Coby leads the 2019 NBA draft class in games played
6. Daniel Gafford (38) - probably the biggest jump from where drafted to where I'd take them now
7. Cameron Johnson (11)
8. Nic Claxton (31) - Was in the DPOY conversation just a year ago
9. Ty Jerome (24) - As become an important piece for a contender, likely to get paid this offseason.
10. De'Andre Hunter (4) - even underwhelming 3&d guys will always have value
11. PJ Washington (12) - see above
12. Jordan Poole (28) - yeah he's become a bit of a meme, but he played an important role for a championship team
13. Rui Hachimura (9)
14. RJ Barrett (3)

Stopping at the lottery because this quickly gets ugly. Two actual lottery picks (Culver and Langford) are already out of the league. Two more (Hayes and Reddish) are hanging on by a thread.

Herro is not above Zion. Zion is still the second best talent.

True, but all else equal, I'd rather have 75 games from Herro than 30 from Zion.

[drosestruts]

It's the offseason, news is slow, we're all talking about the draft. I thought it'd be interesting to revisit an older draft - in this case 2019.

I think the learning curve is growing longer and longer in the NBA these days - many don't have the patience for it.

I also believe that no re-draft will ever fall the same way it happened. There's so much emphasis on getting the highest pick possible, when there's almost always impact players drafted later.

Anyways, if I were re-picking the 2019 draft these would be my picks - player name (where they were originally drafted).


1. Ja Morant (2) - clear number one
2. Darius Garland (5) - lead guard on a contender
3. Tyler Herro (13) - volume and efficiency as a scorer
4. Zion Williamson (1) - injuries aside, when he plays he's still very good. Hard to fault those that have him higher or lower
5. Coby White (7) - Did you know Coby leads the 2019 NBA draft class in games played
6. Daniel Gafford (38) - probably the biggest jump from where drafted to where I'd take them now
7. Cameron Johnson (11)
8. Nic Claxton (31) - Was in the DPOY conversation just a year ago
9. Ty Jerome (24) - As become an important piece for a contender, likely to get paid this offseason.
10. De'Andre Hunter (4) - even underwhelming 3&d guys will always have value
11. PJ Washington (12) - see above
12. Jordan Poole (28) - yeah he's become a bit of a meme, but he played an important role for a championship team
13. Rui Hachimura (9)
14. RJ Barrett (3)

Stopping at the lottery because this quickly gets ugly. Two actual lottery picks (Culver and Langford) are already out of the league. Two more (Hayes and Reddish) are hanging on by a thread.

Herro is not above Zion. Zion is still the second best talent.

I see we're already getting side tracked.

I'm mostly curious to see how other's would re-draft this draft (or any random years draft).

I think we (as a board/online community of basketball fans) overrate "high picks" outside of the top-2, and I think every year shows there's plenty of talent to be found at pick 12 or later.

In no particular order I look at 3 things with prospects:

1. History of success
2. transferable skills - what do I think they bring to the table immediately
3. projected skills (ex. player A's high FT% suggests he can one day be a good 3-point shooter)

These three things heavily influence my ranking of prospects.

I don't really care for things like - if player x changes their shot selection, propensity to iso, improves their efficiency, and commits to the defensive end of the ball - they could be a real steal.

Because that describes almost everybody

[Jcool0]

Only on a Bulls message board would Daniel Gafford go in the top 6 in a redraft. He isn't a lottery pick.

[Indomitable]

Only on a Bulls message board would Daniel Gafford go in the top 6 in a redraft. He isn't a lottery pick.

Only here would people act like Herro is a game changer. He is a nice player. Got destroyed when it mattered.

Zion with all his warts can be great. Is it likely. No but Herro is nothing special.

[drosestruts]

post your re-draft order

[Jcool0]

Only on a Bulls message board would Daniel Gafford go in the top 6 in a redraft. He isn't a lottery pick.

Only here would people act like Herro is a game changer. He is a nice player. Got destroyed when it mattered.

Zion with all his warts can be great. Is it likely. No but Herro is nothing special.

Why are you replying to me about Tyler Herro?

[The Box Office]

Jarrett Culver was my biggest MISS yet. Man, I learned a lot from scouting him. I ranked him as the number 2 pick. Or was it number 3? Well, whatever. I missed the mark.

- Zero athleticism for 6-6 guard.
- Slow. Really slow footed.
- Slow hands.
- Shocking to learn that J. Culver didn't mold his basketball IQ to make up for his lack of athleticism and slow feet.
- No facilitating ability
- Weak jump shot.
- Didn't work hard off the court. The results show that.
- Couldn't really iso
- His defensive NCAA metrics were incredible, but then it's because he was a man amongst boys. Maybe playing in Big 12 had something to do with it.

I wasn't high on Rui Hachimura and RJ Barrett though.
I wasn't high on Darius Garland either just because his skills determined that he's a combo guard without much defensive presence.
Coby White was meh to me. Nothing stood out about his game at the time, except for the hair, and aggressiveness taking it to the rim.
I was touting on here that Ja Morant is the true number one pick. Not Zion.

2019 Draft doesn't look good right now.

[ChettheJet]

That Coby White missed 13-21 games in his 1st three years is telling about the others who missed even more

[TheLP]

He turned down a selection to sign in OKC but I'd put Lu Dort in there

[Indomitable]

Jarrett Culver was my biggest MISS yet. Man, I learned a lot from scouting him. I ranked him as the number 2 pick. Or was it number 3? Well, whatever. I missed the mark.

- Zero athleticism for 6-6 guard.
- Slow. Really slow footed.
- Slow hands.
- Shocking to learn that J. Culver didn't mold his basketball IQ to make up for his lack of athleticism and slow feet.
- No facilitating ability
- Weak jump shot.
- Didn't work hard off the court. The results show that.
- Couldn't really iso
- His defensive NCAA metrics were incredible, but then it's because he was a man amongst boys. Maybe playing in Big 12 had something to do with it.

I wasn't high on Rui Hachimura and RJ Barrett though.
I wasn't high on Darius Garland either just because his skills determined that he's a combo guard without much defensive presence.
Coby White was meh to me. Nothing stood out about his game at the time, except for the hair, and aggressiveness taking it to the rim.
I was touting on here that Ja Morant is the true number one pick. Not Zion.

2019 Draft doesn't look good right now.

Jarret Culver had a 46 vertical. He could not shoot and that destroyed him.

He did not lack athletic traits. He lacked basketball skills. He lacked instincts.

He was in a way Pat Williams with more explosion, and less size. Of course Pat can at least shoot.

Culver had a crappy handle. He had great genetics. He came from a family of athletes.

[Ice Man]

What a disappointing draft. Zion & Ja were supposed to be super-special, but neither can stay on the court. And where were the 2-way players? The guys who could score -- Zion, Ja, Garland, Tyler, Coby -- couldn't defend. Put those guys on the court together and you'd give up 130 per night. Then further down the list there are players who defend well, but who aren't offensive threats.

[kodo]

A good study case for the trade-up strategy.
Atlanta traded up to #4 for #8, #17, #35.

Deandre Hunter
for
Jaxson Hayes
Nickeil Alexander Walker
Didi Louzada

This draft was also pretty good late.
20-30
Thybulle
Clarke
Grant Williams
Jordan Poole
Keldon Johnson

2nd Round
Nic Claxton
Daniel Gafford
THT
Terrance Mann

Seems like this was a clear argument for a # of picks over 1 higher pick.

[Ballerkingn23]

Just think we gave away Gafford for bag of lent and frisbee lol

[eierluke]

I'd put Zion much lower.

In terms of theoretical talent Morant and Zion were way above the others.

But
A 30 games per season player
No leader can't even prepare himself physically and private life is a construction site

If ever, he'll best case win a ring as a supplemantary player "spark of the bench" aside a grown up leader a la LeBron who could make Delonte West usefull.
His draft position would depend on the goals my team has, but probably out of the top 10.

[dice]

career VORP/BPM:

11.8/4.9 zion
11.8/2.7 ja

7.1/2.4 clarke
8.2/1.6 johnson
7.4/1.9 gafford
6.8/1.3 claxton
8.0/0.7 herro
7.3/0.3 garland
5.3/0.9 thybulle
3.3/0.8 bitadze

sorry, but coby's career trajectory is a poor man's lavine. he is the last remnant of the garpax era. trade ASAP!

but we all know artie will extend him to an even worse contract than zach got. not a max, but plenty dumb. and the hamster wheel will keep on turning

[coldfish]

career VORP/BPM:

11.8/4.9 zion
11.8/2.7 ja

7.1/2.4 clarke
8.2/1.6 johnson
7.4/1.9 gafford
6.8/1.3 claxton
8.0/0.7 herro
7.3/0.3 garland
5.3/0.9 thybulle
3.3/0.8 bitadze

sorry, but coby's career trajectory is a poor man's lavine. he is the last remnant of the garpax era. trade ASAP!

but we all know artie will extend him to an even worse contract than zach got. not a max, but plenty dumb. and the hamster wheel will keep on turning

You beat me to the punch.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2019.html

You can sort by VORP. Gafford really is up there. Coby isn't.

Surprised De'Andre Hunter is that bad.

I also agree on Coby. He is a MLE type player getting large volume. Don't take the bait.

[Ice Man]

career VORP/BPM:

11.8/4.9 zion
11.8/2.7 ja

7.1/2.4 clarke
8.2/1.6 johnson
7.4/1.9 gafford
6.8/1.3 claxton
8.0/0.7 herro
7.3/0.3 garland
5.3/0.9 thybulle
3.3/0.8 bitadze

As I wrote, it ended up being a weak draft class. The 2020 crew, with a year less of NBA play under its belt, already has two players with higher career regular-season VORPS, Hali at 18.9 and Ant at 12.3. Each will almost certainly have a better career than anybody from the 2019 class.

[DropStep]

career VORP/BPM:

11.8/4.9 zion
11.8/2.7 ja

7.1/2.4 clarke
8.2/1.6 johnson
7.4/1.9 gafford
6.8/1.3 claxton
8.0/0.7 herro
7.3/0.3 garland
5.3/0.9 thybulle
3.3/0.8 bitadze

As I wrote, it ended up being a weak draft class. The 2020 crew, with a year less of NBA play under its belt, already has two players with higher career regular-season VORPS, Hali at 18.9 and Ant at 12.3. Each will almost certainly have a better career than anybody from the 2019 class.

BPM is a rate stat, so minutes played does not come into it - and even on a per-minute basis, Zion and Ja aren't as good as I would have thought. From bball reference:

"+10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players"

So one all-star but well below all-NBA (Zion), a good starter (Ja), and everybody else is below the "good starter" line, except... Brandon Clarke. Who I always look for in fantasy, when he's healthy, which isn't that often. Garland gets slandered in BPM, significantly behind Goga, both well above replacement, but well below "good starter."

Not that it's gospel in any way, but... interesting. What are the chances Zion gets better on a per-minute basis from here?