Josh Giddey contract upside / risk matrix

[dougthonus]

So if Josh wants to take the QO and gamble on himself. This table represents potential offers this year, how much he'd need to get to break even next year with that offer this year after taking the QO. Maximum risk is how much he'd lose with a career ending injury. Maximum gain the amount he'd make if he became a max player, MLE risk is the amount he'd lose if he played himself down to an MLE level player.

Bulls offer | Next year Break Even offer | Max Risk | Max Gain | MLE Risk
5/100 (20) | 4/88.6 (22.2) | 80 | 94.4 | 21.7
5/110 (22) | 4/98.6 (24.7) | 88 | 84.4 | 31.7
5/125 (25) | 4/113.6 (28.4) | 100 | 69.4 | 46.7
5/140 (28) | 4/128.6 (32.2) | 112 | 54.4 | 61.7
5/150 (30) | 4/138.6 (34.7) | 120 | 44.4 | 71.7
5/160 (32) | 4/148.6 (37.2) | 128 | 34.4 | 81.7

This accounts for the anticipated 10% cap spike next year with the 25% max at ~42.4M per year and the MLE anticipated to start at 15.5M.

When I look at this, somewhere in the bolded lines is where the risk reward proposition becomes a deal that I believe Giddey takes even if he thinks he's worth more. If you view MLE risk vs Max Gain as equivalents being an interesting inflection point, that number is ~27.2M AAV.

[dougthonus]

From an opinion standpoint, I think Josh being an MLE player next year is more likely than a max player.

If you really like Giddey, which I'm sure our FO does, then I don't think you need to go above 28M. Assuming Giddey has a ton of belief in himself, I think he bets on himself at a number under 25M.

[sco]

So if Josh wants to take the QO and gamble on himself. This table represents potential offers this year, how much he'd need to get to break even next year with that offer this year after taking the QO. Maximum risk is how much he'd lose with a career ending injury. Maximum gain the amount he'd make if he became a max player, MLE risk is the amount he'd lose if he played himself down to an MLE level player.

Bulls offer | Next year Break Even offer | Max Risk | Max Gain | MLE Risk
5/100 (20) | 4/88.6 (22.2) | 80 | 94.4 | 21.7
5/110 (22) | 4/98.6 (24.7) | 88 | 84.4 | 31.7
5/125 (25) | 4/113.6 (28.4) | 100 | 69.4 | 46.7
5/140 (28) | 4/128.6 (32.2) | 112 | 54.4 | 61.7
5/150 (30) | 4/138.6 (34.7) | 120 | 44.4 | 71.7
5/160 (32) | 4/148.6 (37.2) | 128 | 34.4 | 81.7

This accounts for the anticipated 10% cap spike next year with the 25% max at ~42.4M per year and the MLE anticipated to start at 15.5M.

When I look at this, somewhere in the bolded lines is where the risk reward proposition becomes a deal that I believe Giddey takes even if he thinks he's worth more. If you view MLE risk vs Max Gain as equivalents being an interesting inflection point, that number is ~27.2M AAV.

Doug. Really appreciate the work and thinking on this! Thanks dude...big fan!

I do wonder how Giddey thinks about his improvement and whether he thinks it was about him improving or if he attributes a portion of his success to being on a team without a legit #1 option (and how that gave him more statistical opportunity and a bigger role than he might otherwise). For example if the Bulls got Kuminga, I would imagine that Giddey's stats would take a hit.

[ChettheJet]

I doubt Giddey, or his agent, takes the QO and gambles on next year. Injuries happen and never at the right time. He has to know that with the Bulls he's kind of a 1/3 guy, not a PG on defense not enough of a shooter to be a SF. If he goes through the league depth charts he won't find that many teams who want to make room for a hybrid and adjust their roster to fit a 1/3. I think he sees that he's got a good situation with the Bulls so he might as well ride it while he can.

[DrModesty]

So if Josh wants to take the QO and gamble on himself. This table represents potential offers this year, how much he'd need to get to break even next year with that offer this year after taking the QO. Maximum risk is how much he'd lose with a career ending injury. Maximum gain the amount he'd make if he became a max player, MLE risk is the amount he'd lose if he played himself down to an MLE level player.

Bulls offer | Next year Break Even offer | Max Risk | Max Gain | MLE Risk
5/100 (20) | 4/88.6 (22.2) | 80 | 94.4 | 21.7
5/110 (22) | 4/98.6 (24.7) | 88 | 84.4 | 31.7
5/125 (25) | 4/113.6 (28.4) | 100 | 69.4 | 46.7
5/140 (28) | 4/128.6 (32.2) | 112 | 54.4 | 61.7
5/150 (30) | 4/138.6 (34.7) | 120 | 44.4 | 71.7
5/160 (32) | 4/148.6 (37.2) | 128 | 34.4 | 81.7

This accounts for the anticipated 10% cap spike next year with the 25% max at ~42.4M per year and the MLE anticipated to start at 15.5M.

When I look at this, somewhere in the bolded lines is where the risk reward proposition becomes a deal that I believe Giddey takes even if he thinks he's worth more. If you view MLE risk vs Max Gain as equivalents being an interesting inflection point, that number is ~27.2M AAV.

This seems about right. Thanks for doing this.

Players always think they are worth a lot, but 25-28m or so is a very fair compromise where the Bulls have significant upside if Giddey continues to get better and aren't in deep trouble if he regresses a bit. Giddey also gets big money even if it isn't top dollar, and it is way high of his QO. Giddey has deceptively earnt quite a lot as a high pick plus good endorsement money. But he hasn't had a mega deal yet.

[dougthonus]

I doubt Giddey, or his agent, takes the QO and gambles on next year. Injuries happen and never at the right time. He has to know that with the Bulls he's kind of a 1/3 guy, not a PG on defense not enough of a shooter to be a SF. If he goes through the league depth charts he won't find that many teams who want to make room for a hybrid and adjust their roster to fit a 1/3. I think he sees that he's got a good situation with the Bulls so he might as well ride it while he can.

I think taking the QO isn't a thing he would do or not do in a vacuum, that's why I created the table. If the Bulls hard balled him at 20M, he'll take the QO. Even if he tore an ACL he'd probably get the MLE next year from some team, so his risk / reward is heavily weighted towards the QO at 20M.

[Almost Retired]

Within reason we have to keep him. He's still young and showed considerable improvement after we got rid of Lavine. His height and passing will help out two young forwards a lot. We saw signs of improving defense. Not on ball but off ball and in the passing lanes. And now we have Okoro for more on ball defense. We just need a Center going forward. Which is why I wish the Bulls had moved up from #45 and gotten Kalbrenner instead of taking the cash and moving down. A Matas, Kalbrenner, Noa front line in a few years would have been something to look forward to. I think Giddey realizes he is in probably the best situation he could hope for. If we don't low ball him I think we can lock him up for less than $30 Million a year, but not much less.

[TheSuzerain]

The other key factor is that if he takes the QO, we shouldn't be giving him much of a platform to show his stuff.

Coby 1st option and Giddey more offball.

[nomorezorro]

fwiw, the current league projection is for the salary cap to go up 7%, not 10%

[dougthonus]

fwiw, the current league projection is for the salary cap to go up 7%, not 10%

Interesting, I thought the new TV deal more or less locked it at 10%.

[HomoSapien]

I hope he doesn't take the QO. I also think our entire rebuild is predicated on Josh Giddey being close to the player he was to close out the season. Sure, we have a lot riding on Matas and Essengue, but if you remove Giddey from the equation we feel even further back than we currently are. At least with him, you can squint and see something that could eventually grow into a smart rebuild.

[Jvaughn]

I hope he doesn't take the QO. I also think our entire rebuild is predicated on Josh Giddey being close to the player he was to close out the season. Sure, we have a lot riding on Matas and Essengue, but if you remove Giddey from the equation we feel even further back than we currently are. At least with him, you can squint and see something that could eventually grow into a smart rebuild.

My feelings exactly. I'm not expecting him to average a near 25 point triple double, but any semblance of the player he was post al-star break, and he's worth the $25-30 mil per year. Don't overpay a ton, but don't let your cheapness throw off your entire rebuild just to save a few bucks.

[nomorezorro]

i really am surprised that any bulls fan who's lived through several years of this front office is thinking "hmm, i sure hope AK isn't negotiating *too hard*...i'm very worried about the idea that he won't hand out *enough* money to retain a young player that he previously acquired"

obviously anything's possible, and clearly there's some gap between us and giddey at this point in the process, but...if history is any indication, "what if we lowball him" is not really the scenario we have to sweat over

[HomoSapien]

i really am surprised that any bulls fan who's lived through several years of this front office is thinking "hmm, i sure hope AK isn't negotiating *too hard*...i'm very worried about the idea that he won't hand out *enough* money to retain a young player that he previously acquired"

obviously anything's possible, and clearly there's some gap between us and giddey at this point in the process, but...if history is any indication, "what if we lowball him" is not really the scenario we have to sweat over

Why would you be surprised? Almost everything they do is done incorrectly. They are a stubborn group, and we keep hearing that the mistake they made with Pat is driving this negotiation. I am worried they will overcorrect and shoot themselves in the foot here. But obviously I hope I'm wrong and we just get Giddey on a discount.

[League Circles]

I think they'll agree to a 5 year with AAV of about 26 million. Maybe a P.O. on year 5.

[dougthonus]

i really am surprised that any bulls fan who's lived through several years of this front office is thinking "hmm, i sure hope AK isn't negotiating *too hard*...i'm very worried about the idea that he won't hand out *enough* money to retain a young player that he previously acquired"

obviously anything's possible, and clearly there's some gap between us and giddey at this point in the process, but...if history is any indication, "what if we lowball him" is not really the scenario we have to sweat over

Here's how I'd view the FA negotiations above the vet min (possibly forgetting someone):

Vuc:
At the time: Felt like an overpay in years and/or money
Afterwards: Played about as expected, and it was an overpay

Pat:
At the time: Felt like an overpay
Afterwards: Pat regressed significantly, and it went from overpay to albatross

Coby:
At the time: Felt good
Afterwards: Coby plays amazing, it's awesome

Caruso:
At the time: Felt a bit expensive
Afterwards: Becomes one of the best contracts in the league

Ball:
At the time: Felt fair
Afterwards: Ball is out, becomes an albatross

DeMar:
At the time: Felt like high end of reasonable
Afterwards: Becomes a good contract

Carter:
At the time: Felt reasonable
Afterwards: Becomes dead money

Ayo:
At the time: Felt high end of reasonable
Afterwards: Becomes a good deal

Smith:
At the time: Felt good
Afterwards: Feels okay-ish

Zach:
At the time: Felt like overkill to give him the PO/Trade Kicker/Full bend over, but you knew he was leaving or we were giving him the max
Afterwards: Became a "meh" contract, one year we could move him for multiple picks, next he was an albatross, next we got out for minimal value

In the end, I think FA negotiation is often a bit overrated, most of the time unpredictable changes in player growth/regression/health decide whether a signing is good or bad, and only a few times do you really just totally screw it up. Like in our contracts, the only two I felt really bad about were Vuc/Pat. Vuc because it was bad, Pat because it was too early and I thought letting the market play out was better and would have lowered his value a lot (which it would have).

[Chi town]

The easy compromise is to give Giddey a 20/22M contract with incentives that get him to 30M.

[Axl Rose]

Taking the QO would mean a drastic breakdown. If they are truly far apart money wise then I see the compromise being Giddey coming closer to Bulls number but only signing up for 3 years with a player option. He gets some security but also flexibility.

[samwana]

How much can we front load a contract for Giddey, let him have 30m this year on a declining, incentive loaded contract, with a big signing bonus so he gets his and becomes a good contract later on for our beloved flexibility.

[Mindcrime]

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My guess is current offer is around 25M and would eventualy settle at 27-28 while both sides make a little compromise.