Would you offer Ayo an extension?

[dougthonus]

Ayo's eligible for an extension right now, and given how boring this off-season is, it's kind of surprising we haven't talked about it.

He could get up to 4/88 (MLE+40% with 8% raises).

Would you offer this deal to Ayo? something lower?

Unlike Giddey whom probably has something like 100M in total earnings already between his endorsements, Ayo's not ever had a monster contract yet. If I were him and I got this 4/88 deal, I'd take it, so there is some range where both sides could come to a deal now. This doesn't mean I'd offer the maximum extension, but that an agreement should be able to be reached.

If you're the Bulls, this isn't without risk. You have a crowded roster at guard already, and Ayo still projects as a backup with Okoro and Tre Jones already on two year deals at backup level prices. A year ago, Ayo looked like he would be too expensive to lock into an extension when he shot over 40% from three and averaged 15 points per 36 with good defense. He regressed on shooting last year, and no longer looks like he's on a clear upwards trajectory (ie has stabilized).

I'd probably be willing to gamble on Ayo, because I think he play multiple positions well and fit next to more or less any players in the league. I'm a bit surprised we haven't heard more about him in extension talk, but likely the challenge in the short term is that any number the Bulls give him becomes an anchor in the Giddey negotiation, so they're likely to wait until after that is concluded before engaging.

[Clint Eastwood]

The answer is most certainly, yes. But I think if we offer it now, 4/80 gets it done. He is so hard working and will continue to improve. He will always have value in trade on that deal too.

[League Circles]

Ayo's eligible for an extension right now, and given how boring this off-season is, it's kind of surprising we haven't talked about it.

He could get up to 4/88 (MLE+40% with 8% raises).

Would you offer this deal to Ayo? something lower?

Unlike Giddey whom probably has something like 100M in total earnings already between his endorsements, Ayo's not ever had a monster contract yet. If I were him and I got this 4/88 deal, I'd probably take it. If you're the Bulls, this isn't without risk. At the end of last season, this would feel like an overpay, but at the end of the season before, this would look like a deal.

I'd probably be willing to gamble on Ayo, because I think he play multiple positions well and fit next to more or less any players in the league. I'm a bit surprised we haven't heard more about him in extension talk, but likely the challenge in the short term is that any number the Bulls give him becomes an anchor in the Giddey negotiation, so they're likely to wait until after that is concluded before engaging.

No way would I offer him an extension. He's currently projected to be fighting for a 10th man role this season, so he may just be racking up DNPs.

He's a nice utility player but has no significant strengths other than playing pretty smart.

He'd be smart to take a deal making him even as little as he's making now. Which I still wouldn't offer him.

[dougthonus]

No way would I offer him an extension. He's currently projected to be fighting for a 10th man role this season, so he may just be racking up DNPs.

He's a nice utility player but has no significant strengths other than playing pretty smart.

He'd be smart to take a deal making him even as little as he's making now. Which I still wouldn't offer him.

It's a good point on his minutes likely being down, which will make it harder for him to earn in the market place.

[League Circles]

No way would I offer him an extension. He's currently projected to be fighting for a 10th man role this season, so he may just be racking up DNPs.

He's a nice utility player but has no significant strengths other than playing pretty smart.

He'd be smart to take a deal making him even as little as he's making now. Which I still wouldn't offer him.

It's a good point on his minutes likely being down, which will make it harder for him to earn in the market place.

I think there's a good chance he's already peaked. I mean he's almost 26 years old and really hasn't had a strong offensive season yet in 4 tries. He's an above average but not special defender, and frankly all he offers on offense is good shot selection and ability to play team ball. He's not actually very good at making shots that aren't easy layups, he's not a gifted passer, etc.

I like him a lot but he's just a guy and IMO will be lucky to get a long term deal from anyone.

The notion that we'd offer him really anything at all let alone 20+ million a season right now is mind boggling to me.

[ChettheJet]

Right now I'd say No. Three things make me want to wait,
just who else is going to be on the FA market? The Bulls have a boatload of cap space to shop, uncertainty as to do they resign Coby as their starting SG or have their sights on somebody else as a starter, how much money do they want to spend on a starting Center and who might that be?
second, Ayo needs to make a step up as a shooter, scorer or playmaker, defense is not really his problem. He's a good backup guard who isn't excellent at any of those three offensive skills. Have they seen enough of him to see him making serious progress on offense or is he one of the guys who was so supportive of the released shooting coach that he might not accept somebody new?
third, is he that attractive to any other team? Teams always talk defense but they always pay for shooters even if they aren't much on defense. Teams can always pick up a solid all around player on a one year deal rather than sin someone lie Ayo to a multi year deal. The Bulls shouldn't invest heavily in 'their guy' if there's no one else going to bid up the price.

[samwana]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

[sco]

No way would I offer him an extension. He's currently projected to be fighting for a 10th man role this season, so he may just be racking up DNPs.

He's a nice utility player but has no significant strengths other than playing pretty smart.

He'd be smart to take a deal making him even as little as he's making now. Which I still wouldn't offer him.

It's a good point on his minutes likely being down, which will make it harder for him to earn in the market place.

Yeah, if guys stay healthy, I have a hard time seeing him get more than 15mpg. That's good and bad. On the one hand, his market value will likely be less than MLE $. OTOH, if he only is playing that much, he'll likely want to go elsewhere. We may be able to get him comfortable if we get rid of a bunch of expirings, but I still see him behind Coby/Giddey/Okoro/Jones (but Giddey's and Okoro's minutes may also be at the sf position). I'd definitely try to extend him, but only up to $10M AAV.

From a broader POV, I'm not sure of what kind of player he is. It could be the injury, but his 3pt shooting wasn't good last year...his defense was just average (IMO, he's much slower now that he's bulked up)...If he's not above average at both of those things, I see no reason to keep him (even at $10M).

[dougthonus]

No way would I offer him an extension. He's currently projected to be fighting for a 10th man role this season, so he may just be racking up DNPs.

He's a nice utility player but has no significant strengths other than playing pretty smart.

He'd be smart to take a deal making him even as little as he's making now. Which I still wouldn't offer him.

It's a good point on his minutes likely being down, which will make it harder for him to earn in the market place.

I think there's a good chance he's already peaked. I mean he's almost 26 years old and really hasn't had a strong offensive season yet in 4 tries. He's an above average but not special defender, and frankly all he offers on offense is good shot selection and ability to play team ball. He's not actually very good at making shots that aren't easy layups, he's not a gifted passer, etc.

I like him a lot but he's just a guy and IMO will be lucky to get a long term deal from anyone.

The notion that we'd offer him really anything at all let alone 20+ million a season right now is mind boggling to me.

A different way I'd look at him is that he's one of the legit 2 way players on the roster. He can play three positions, and he's at least average at everything (shooting, defense, passing, rebounding, can play up tempo, can play in half court etc...). I agree he might not actually be above average at almost anything though, but the versatility he provides and ability to fit in with anyone is pretty useful, especially given our roster completely lacks two way players, and we need a lot of versatile guys around Giddey if we keep him.

[dougthonus]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

FWIW, I'm not suggesting you have to go 4/88, just that's the max he could get offered, and it's in the range he'd take (ie, there is some deal here that we could work out). It's worth noting that at the end of the 23/24 season, people were looking at Ayo like he might command 30M a year.

[League Circles]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

FWIW, I'm not suggesting you have to go 4/88, just that's the max he could get offered. It's worth noting that at the end of the 23/24 season, people were looking at Ayo like he might command 30M a year.

The notion that he would ever get 30 mil a year was always insane. Nothing on the face of the earth would warrant that.

[League Circles]

It's a good point on his minutes likely being down, which will make it harder for him to earn in the market place.

I think there's a good chance he's already peaked. I mean he's almost 26 years old and really hasn't had a strong offensive season yet in 4 tries. He's an above average but not special defender, and frankly all he offers on offense is good shot selection and ability to play team ball. He's not actually very good at making shots that aren't easy layups, he's not a gifted passer, etc.

I like him a lot but he's just a guy and IMO will be lucky to get a long term deal from anyone.

The notion that we'd offer him really anything at all let alone 20+ million a season right now is mind boggling to me.

A different way I'd look at him is that he's one of the legit 2 way players on the roster. He can play three positions, and he's at least average at everything (shooting, defense, passing, rebounding, can play up tempo, can play in half court etc...). I agree he might not actually be above average at almost anything though, but the versatility he provides and ability to fit in with anyone is pretty useful, especially given our roster completely lacks two way players, and we need a lot of versatile guys around Giddey if we keep him.

I don't think he particularly stands out as a two way player above these guys:

Jones: better on offense AND defense
Okoro: better on defense, about the same on offense
Patrick (yes, not joking): better on defense. Worse on offense than Ayo all around for sure but his one skill of three point shooting may be more valuable than what Ayo brings on O
Essengue: projects as better than Ayo on both sides of the ball, probably as early as this year IMO
Matas: better on both sides of the ball
Smith: slightly better on both sides of the ball IMO

Hell, even Phillips and Terry are better defenders than Ayo and not a lot worse offensively IMO.

[League Circles]

I truly do like Ayo, but he's like the Chris Duhon of our team

[dougthonus]

The notion that he would ever get 30 mil a year was always insane. Nothing on the face of the earth would warrant that.

Maybe, people were projecting improvement and upside, once that doesn't happen, the dollars obviously go down, but two way players make a lot in the NBA. Someone would have said the same about Coby White 2 years ago, and he probably projects to make that kind of money next year.

[Red Larrivee]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

If Ayo would take 4/40 (and he wouldn't) that would be a grand slam for the Bulls.

The MLE in 4-5 years is going to be around 17-19M. In the grand scheme of things, 10M is going to be nothing in this league.

I really hope we keep Ayo. I could easily see him going to a better organization and becoming significantly more valuable. He fits so many different lineups and team structures. I'm confident his three-point shot will bounce back.

[League Circles]

The notion that he would ever get 30 mil a year was always insane. Nothing on the face of the earth would warrant that.

Maybe, people were projecting improvement and upside, once that doesn't happen, the dollars obviously go down, but two way players make a lot in the NBA. Someone would have said the same about Coby White 2 years ago, and he probably projects to make that kind of money next year.

I think the problem is that Ayo has never shown much of a hint of being a positive offensive player for a perimeter guy. So he's not so much a 2 way player as just a player who isn't bad at anything. Except creating his own shot, which he really can't do.

[dougthonus]

I don't think he particularly stands out as a two way player above these guys:

Jones: better on offense AND defense
Okoro: better on defense, about the same on offense
Patrick (yes, not joking): better on defense. Worse on offense than Ayo all around for sure but his one skill of three point shooting may be more valuable than what Ayo brings on O
Essengue: projects as better than Ayo on both sides of the ball, probably as early as this year IMO
Matas: better on both sides of the ball
Smith: slightly better on both sides of the ball IMO

Hell, even Phillips and Terry are better defenders than Ayo and not a lot worse offensively IMO.

I'd take Ayo over Jones, Okoro, and Pat. The other guys aren't really meaningful comparisons, so we disagree a bit on Ayo's overall ability, but I do think Tre Jones is probably a good comparison if you wanted to do an extension.

[League Circles]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

If Ayo would take 4/40 (and he wouldn't) that would be a grand slam for the Bulls.

The MLE in 4-5 years is going to be around 17-19M. In the grand scheme of things, 10M is going to be nothing in this league.

I really hope we keep Ayo. I could easily see him going to a better organization and becoming significantly more valuable. He fits so many different lineups and team structures. I'm confident his three-point shot will bounce back.

10 million is obscene for a guy who doesn't play, which Ayo is clearly at risk for even on this mediocre team. I mean at the 1-2-3 spots, clearly Coby, Giddey, Jones and Okoro are already ahead of him in the pecking order. If Essengue plays some at the 3 spot he likely will be too. I also happen to think Patrick and Huerter are likely to be ahead of him.

So he's projecting as the 5th to 8th best perimeter player on an average team. When guys are healthy you don't need any more than 6 max. And on top of all of that, Matas would be better at the 3, and both Terry AND Phillips have more physical upside potential.

[Red Larrivee]

10 million is obscene for a guy who doesn't play, which Ayo is clearly at risk for even on this mediocre team. I mean at the 1-2-3 spots, clearly Coby, Giddey, Jones and Okoro are already ahead of him in the pecking order. If Essengue plays some at the 3 spot he likely will be too. I also happen to think Patrick and Huerter are likely to be ahead of him.

So he's projecting as the 5th to 8th best perimeter player on an average team. When guys are healthy you don't need any more than 6 max. And on top of all of that, Matas would be better at the 3, and both Terry AND Phillips have more physical upside potential.

I highly doubt that Ayo is going to be a healthy scratch. He is currently the best two-way guard on the team.

Just off principle, paying Ayo 10M for the next four years with a rising cap is a huge win on the margins. There is so much room for him to outplay that salary and he doesn't have to do much to justify it.

[dougthonus]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

If Ayo would take 4/40 (and he wouldn't) that would be a grand slam for the Bulls.

The MLE in 4-5 years is going to be around 17-19M. In the grand scheme of things, 10M is going to be nothing in this league.

I really hope we keep Ayo. I could easily see him going to a better organization and becoming significantly more valuable. He fits so many different lineups and team structures. I'm confident his three-point shot will bounce back.

FWIW over the four years an extension would kick in, I would project the MLE at:
15
15.8
16.6
17.5

I think there's a reasonable chance Ayo would take 4/40 given that he may not project into the rotation this year or top out at 10-15 minutes a night. It's going to be hard for him to convince another team he's worth so much more. I like Ayo more than the numbers say I should though. When I look at it, I just think he's better than his production, but there's really no reason to think that when I dive in closely.