RealGM

Not about predicting what we think will happen, but rather what would you do to start the season? - assuming no further roster moves, no additional contract extensions for anyone, no injuries, and no new info from preseason or training camp.

For me:

Starters:

5: Smith 24 mpg- gotta see what we really have. Only one of our centers with the right physical makeup and age to possibly still be a long term solution. And due to contract status and amount, there is a very significant chance he's at least a one year starter next year if we re-sign Coby and use cap space on a non center.
4: Matas 30 mpg
3: Giddey 34 mpg
2: Okoro 24 mpg - like Smith, gotta see if he can be the guy in this role. Needs to be our lead perimeter defender hounding opponents and also convert catch and shoot jumpers and drives effectively when setup.
1: Coby 34 mpg

Bench:
5: Vuc 20, Collins 4. I think Vuc will be better as one of the primary bench scoring options. I think Collins should get the 4 mpg initially at least just to keep him fresh and engaged, especially cause we might trade a C.

4: Noa 10 mpg, Patrick 8 mpg. Noa needs to play IMO, and Patrick deserves to play for his 3 and D potential and to prevent his contract from automatically and permanently being unmovable.

3: Patrick 14 mpg - should be the lead defender whenever Okoro isn't in the game

2: Huerter 14, Ayo 10. Huerter should play the Coby perimeter shooting threat role when Coby is on the bench. Ayo should only play when Okoro is on the bench and Pat is either also on the bench or guarding the 4 spot, such that Ayo can focus on being the lead perimeter defender for his short stints

1: Jones 14 mpg - easy, he'll be running the offense primarily when Giddey is on the bench

DNP-CD: Phillips, Terry, Carter - I probably wouldn't experiment any further with Carter and Phillips barring injury - too much commitment to guys ahead of them to make sense. Terry I'd give a chance over Ayo or Huerter if he genuinely looks better in practice for the team. I just doubt that.

There are definitely options. I don't know if there are good options, but there are certainly some options. I'd start Vuc because he's still ostensibly the best player on the team and also because it would be great to pump up his trade value a bit and try to move him for literally anything. I'd probably start Pat too. Give him a little more time to show he's not the worst, albatrossiest player in the NBA. Gotta start Coby and Giddey but it's probably wise to stagger their minutes. Not really trusting Tre Jones and Ayo to handle the ball and lead a second unit. Jones is not so bad I guess. Suppose he played pretty well here. Unsure about starting Matas. He seems to be the only worthwhile part of the Bulls future, but giving him entitlement minutes can't be good for his development. Give him more minutes in a bench role first and see what he does. He could probably replace Pat within a month of the season starting. Make him earn it though (not like Pat earned it).

Coby/Jones/Ayo
Okoro/Huerter/Ayo
Giddey/Matas/Huerter
Pat/Matas/Noa
Vuc/Smith/Collins

Dunno how the minutes break down, but Coby, Giddey, Vuc are probably playing 30+ mins. Maybe slightly under 30 for Vuc because he's old. Matas should get more minutes than Pat, maybe 24 and 22 respectively. The rest of the guys can get minutes based on how they are performing or what the matchup calls for. If Noa is impressive, give him a bunch of mins. I wouldn't be shy about sending him to the gatorade league either.

Giddey Jones
White Huerter
Vucevic Collins
Buzelis Smith
Williams Okoro

I honesty don't see much chance for good minutes for Dosunmu, you just can't play everybody 24 minutes and hope to get into a flow or have production. Phillips and Terry just don't have much of a regular role

I see Huerter, Collins and Smith coming in midway through the 1st and 3rd quarters and splitting up coming back to start the 2nd and 4th. Williams and Giddey stay until the 2nd and 4th start when Jones and Okoro come in. This is what Billy has done, some coming in at the 6-7 minute mark of the 1st and 3rd so there's a mix of starters and bench guys at that point. Starters generally finish the halves

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:There are definitely options. I don't know if there are good options, but there are certainly some options. I'd start Vuc because he's still ostensibly the best player on the team and also because it would be great to pump up his trade value a bit and try to move him for literally anything. I'd probably start Pat too. Give him a little more time to show he's not the worst, albatrossiest player in the NBA. Gotta start Coby and Giddey but it's probably wise to stagger their minutes. Not really trusting Tre Jones and Ayo to handle the ball and lead a second unit. Jones is not so bad I guess. Suppose he played pretty well here. Unsure about starting Matas. He seems to be the only worthwhile part of the Bulls future, but giving him entitlement minutes can't be good for his development. Give him more minutes in a bench role first and see what he does. He could probably replace Pat within a month of the season starting. Make him earn it though (not like Pat earned it).

Coby/Jones/Ayo
Okoro/Huerter/Ayo
Giddey/Matas/Huerter
Pat/Matas/Noa
Vuc/Smith/Collins

Dunno how the minutes break down, but Coby, Giddey, Vuc are probably playing 30+ mins. Maybe slightly under 30 for Vuc because he's old. Matas should get more minutes than Pat, maybe 24 and 22 respectively. The rest of the guys can get minutes based on how they are performing or what the matchup calls for. If Noa is impressive, give him a bunch of mins. I wouldn't be shy about sending him to the gatorade league either.

Good Lord lol. Really hard to wrap my head around this notion. Vuc is an unambiguously atrocious defender and always has been. He's a pretty good offensive player, but I think most people would agree that we have several players that are clearly better than him.

Matas already earned his starting spot over Patrick. He was clearly better offensively and similar if not better defensively too IMO. We've also had reports that he looks dominant in team workouts this summer. And I say this all as one of Patrick's bigger supporters here.

League Circles wrote:Good Lord lol. Really hard to wrap my head around this notion. Vuc is an unambiguously atrocious defender and always has been. He's a pretty good offensive player, but I think most people would agree that we have several players that are clearly better than him.

Matas already earned his starting spot over Patrick. He was clearly better offensively and similar if not better defensively too IMO. We've also had reports that he looks dominant in team workouts this summer. And I say this all as one of Patrick's bigger supporters here.

Best scorer, best rebounder, didn't turn the ball over, passes the ball well from the C position, led the team in PER, WS, OBPM, VORP, TS% and was statistically an average defender only beaten out by Giddey in terms of guys playing significant minutes.

The guy has been criminally underrated his entire Bulls tenure. I dunno why it's a wild claim when all the statistics indicate it. Guy is a top 10 center any way you slice it. 4th in PPG, 10th in rebounds, 4th in assists.

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:Best scorer, best rebounder, didn't turn the ball over, passes the ball well from the C position, led the team in PER, WS, OBPM, VORP, TS% and was statistically an average defender only beaten out by Giddey in terms of guys playing significant minutes.

The guy has been criminally underrated his entire Bulls tenure. I dunno why it's a wild claim when all the statistics indicate it. Guy is a top 10 center any way you slice it. 4th in PPG, 10th in rebounds, 4th in assists.

Vuc has consistently been the worst rotation number in terms of all on/off numbers. Ie, all of the correlation stats with "what happens when Vuc is on the floor" say he is the worst player over a 4.5 year stretch. I'm not a huge believer in +/- based numbers, but when they are huge outliers (like his average net rating is something like -4.5 or something over his stretch here and he's the only one who is consistently awful), then I think it does say something.

So it most definitely not "all stats".

Everyone agrees Vuc puts up huge counting stats, but he does so at below league average efficiency. Every shot Vuc takes is a less efficient shot than if more or less if anyone else takes it. Feeding Vuc in the post almost always generates bad offense, because it takes up a lot of shot clock time to set up that shot, yields a low efficiency shot, and if you have to bail out of it, you have very little time to do something else. His lack of foot speed hurts you in transition on both ends of the floor. His inability to block **** at the rim makes everyone else's job harder.

Ie, while I'm not necessarily a huge believer in +/-, it's really easy to tie out why despite high levels of counting stats, he generates negative impact when he is actually on the floor.

I would say:
Starters: Giddey, Coby, Okoro, Matas, Collins

I'd start with Ayo, Huerter, and Tre fighting backup minutes at the 1-3.
Pat / Essengue fighting for backup forward
Smith as the back up center

Initially out: Vuc, Terry, Philips, Carter

dougthonus wrote:

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:Best scorer, best rebounder, didn't turn the ball over, passes the ball well from the C position, led the team in PER, WS, OBPM, VORP, TS% and was statistically an average defender only beaten out by Giddey in terms of guys playing significant minutes.

The guy has been criminally underrated his entire Bulls tenure. I dunno why it's a wild claim when all the statistics indicate it. Guy is a top 10 center any way you slice it. 4th in PPG, 10th in rebounds, 4th in assists.

Vuc has consistently been the worst rotation number in terms of all on/off numbers. Ie, all of the correlation stats with "what happens when Vuc is on the floor" say he is the worst player over a 4.5 year stretch. I'm not a huge believer in +/- based numbers, but when they are huge outliers (like his average net rating is something like -4.5 or something over his stretch here and he's the only one who is consistently awful), then I think it does say something.

So it most definitely not "all stats".

Everyone agrees Vuc puts up huge counting stats, but he does so at below league average efficiency. Every shot Vuc takes is a less efficient shot than if more or less if anyone else takes it. Feeding Vuc in the post almost always generates bad offense, because it takes up a lot of shot clock time to set up that shot, yields a low efficiency shot, and if you have to bail out of it, you have very little time to do something else. His lack of foot speed hurts you in transition on both ends of the floor. His inability to block **** at the rim makes everyone else's job harder.

Ie, while I'm not necessarily a huge believer in +/-, it's really easy to tie out why despite high levels of counting stats, he generates negative impact when he is actually on the floor.

61% true shooting, 53%/40%/80% is elite, especially for a center who takes 4.5 threes a game. I actually think the wild assertion is thinking Jalen Smith is better.
He's not a good defender but the team sets seem to be the issue. Poor guard defense is more of an issue. And Billy being a bad Xs/Os coach. Not the Roy Hibbert era anymore. I cited the 'box plus minus' stat and only Tre Jones and Giddey were better last season. DBPM had him second (among guys playing significant minutes). In the previous season, his BPM was tied with Zach and below Caruso and DeRozen.

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:

League Circles wrote:Good Lord lol. Really hard to wrap my head around this notion. Vuc is an unambiguously atrocious defender and always has been. He's a pretty good offensive player, but I think most people would agree that we have several players that are clearly better than him.

Matas already earned his starting spot over Patrick. He was clearly better offensively and similar if not better defensively too IMO. We've also had reports that he looks dominant in team workouts this summer. And I say this all as one of Patrick's bigger supporters here.

Best scorer, best rebounder, didn't turn the ball over, passes the ball well from the C position, led the team in PER, WS, OBPM, VORP, TS% and was statistically an average defender only beaten out by Giddey in terms of guys playing significant minutes.

The guy has been criminally underrated his entire Bulls tenure. I dunno why it's a wild claim when all the statistics indicate it. Guy is a top 10 center any way you slice it. 4th in PPG, 10th in rebounds, 4th in assists.

Jalen Smith was a better rebounder by all meaningful measures and by a significant margin.

If Vuc actually was a top 10 center teams would be tripping over themselves to trade for him at his modest salary.

Everyone on earth knows he's an atrocious defender. Quite possibly the worst defensive center in the entire league, not just among the starters. The eye test proves it. He DOES NOT CONTEST SHOTS. Any stat that suggests he's an OK defender is just a terrible stat to use. Just like PER is, or counting stats per game, etc.

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:61% true shooting, 53%/40%/80% is elite, especially for a center who takes 4.5 threes a game. I actually think the wild assertion is thinking Jalen Smith is better.
He's not a good defender but the team sets seem to be the issue. Poor guard defense is more of an issue. And Billy being a bad Xs/Os coach. Not the Roy Hibbert era anymore. I cited the 'box plus minus' stat and only Tre Jones and Giddey were better last season. DBPM had him second (among guys playing significant minutes). In the previous season, his BPM was tied with Zach and below Caruso and DeRozen.

His career averages are 54.9% TS% 34.8% 3pt% which is really lousy. I'm discussing Vuc holistically, not based on just last year. He did play much better on offense last year, but I was discussing his percentages over a long period of time.

Those numbers as a Bull in the full seasons are:
53.3%/31.4%
59.4%/34.9%
54%/29.4%
61.1%/40.2%

A big problem with his 3% is much like Giddey is that he's just not guarded at the three point line, teams are willing to play 5 on 4 on the other players on the floor and let Vuc fire away from three because they aren't scared of him, this creates way more negative impact and his improved shooting hasn't fully offset that, but it was much better last year.

Do you anticipate Vuc keeping up those numbers that are way above his career average? I would not gamble on that based on what I've seen.

Defensively, it has been gotten worse and worse over time.

dougthonus wrote:I would say:
Starters: Giddey, Coby, Okoro, Matas, Collins

I'd start with Ayo, Huerter, and Tre fighting backup minutes at the 1-3.
Pat / Essengue fighting for backup forward
Smith as the back up center

Initially out: Vuc, Terry, Philips, Carter

This is exactly what I would do as coach.

Billy will Billy this though…

Giddey Coby Huerter Vuc
Tre Ayo Okoro Pat Collins
DNP Noa Smith

Noa plays when Pat gets hurt like he always does.

dougthonus wrote:His career averages are 54.9% TS% 34.8% 3pt% which is really lousy. I'm discussing Vuc holistically, not based on just last year. He did play much better on offense last year, but I was discussing his percentages over a long period of time.

Those numbers as a Bull in the full seasons are:
53.3%/31.4%
59.4%/34.9%
54%/29.4%
61.1%/40.2%

A big problem with his 3% is much like Giddey is that he's just not guarded at the three point line, teams are willing to play 5 on 4 on the other players on the floor and let Vuc fire away from three because they aren't scared of him, this creates way more negative impact and his improved shooting hasn't fully offset that, but it was much better last year.

Do you anticipate Vuc keeping up those numbers that are way above his career average? I would not gamble on that based on what I've seen.

Defensively, it has been gotten worse and worse over time.

Not gonna detract too much from the actual thread topic, so this might be the last point to make, but 50%/37%, 58% TS seems sustainable at least for the last year on his deal. I wouldn't gamble on it, but my actual point is to let him play and maybe he can be traded. His Bulls tenure has been pretty consistent. I don't love PER but I think it's useful in comparing a player's season to one of his past seasons, and it's been in a range from 18-22 and so 20 (this past season) seems like a fair bet. His DBPM has been above 0 every season here except for one. His 'value over replacement player' has been consistently good. The statistics do not indicate that his defense has gotten significantly worse. His 82 game average is 3.5 DWS, has compiled 0.2 DBPM and he was at 2.6/0.1 last season.

61 TS% seems like an outlier, but maybe Giddey is helping his game and deep-sixing Zach probably helped in that regard too. 58% seems reasonable. Let him pump up his stats. He definitely isn't a bench player on this team.

League Circles wrote:Jalen Smith was a better rebounder by all meaningful measures and by a significant margin.

If Vuc actually was a top 10 center teams would be tripping over themselves to trade for him at his modest salary.

Everyone on earth knows he's an atrocious defender. Quite possibly the worst defensive center in the entire league, not just among the starters. The eye test proves it. He DOES NOT CONTEST SHOTS. Any stat that suggests he's an OK defender is just a terrible stat to use. Just like PER is, or counting stats per game, etc.

What are these meaningful measures? Certainly not the actual counting stats. The rates are almost exactly the same as are the per 36 numbers. It's better, but he plays a lot fewer minutes and doesn't need to conserve energy crashing the glass. It is definitely not a significant margin. For their careers, Vuc's TRB% is higher. Jalen is better on the offensive glass. Which is dipping as he takes more 3s...and would probably dip if he played more than 15mpg.
I think I would dispute that every traditional stat and advanced stat is "terrible". The eye test is useful, the eye test indicates that Vuc is a great passer, but like, per game stats are not good anymore?

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:What are these meaningful measures? Certainly not the actual counting stats. The rates are almost exactly the same as are the per 36 numbers. It's better, but he plays a lot fewer minutes and doesn't need to conserve energy crashing the glass. It is definitely not a significant margin. For their careers, Vuc's TRB% is higher. Jalen is better on the offensive glass. Which is dipping as he takes more 3s...and would probably dip if he played more than 15mpg.
I think I would dispute that every traditional stat and advanced stat is "terrible". The eye test is useful, the eye test indicates that Vuc is a great passer, but like, per game stats are not good anymore?

Per game stats are really bad for comparing players who play different mpg obviously which is the case for Vuc and our other centers, as well as most centers in the league because Vuc plays more than almost all of them. There is also the problem of different teams playing at different paces, which increases per game or even per 36 stats for guys playing on teams that play faster.

So using per 100 possession, per 36 minute, and % stats for these two guys when they were on the same team last year:

Rebounds/100:
Smith 17.3
Vuc 15.1

Rebounds/36:
Smith 13.4
Vuc 11.6

Total rebounding %:
Smith 19.5
Vuc 16.9

Smith also scored pretty close to Vuc, turned the ball over less, and blocked shots twice as often.

Who is asking Vuc to conserve energy? I agree he does do that, but it's one of his biggest problems. He's an extremely low effort defender. Big guys that do that are IMO preoccupied with staying on the floor and putting up their counting stats.

I'd say Vuc is a good but certainly not great passer.

If he reverts to his career typical shooting numbers he's easily our 3rd best C behind Collins and Smith. Hell even Matas or Essengue might be better at the 5.

League Circles wrote:Per game stats are really bad for comparing players who play different mpg obviously which is the case for Vuc and our other centers, as well as most centers in the league because Vuc plays more than almost all of them. There is also the problem of different teams playing at different paces, which increases per game or even per 36 stats for guys playing on teams that play faster.

So using per 100 possession, per 36 minute, and % stats for these two guys when they were on the same team last year:

Rebounds/100:
Smith 17.3
Vuc 15.1

Rebounds/36:
Smith 13.4
Vuc 11.6

Total rebounding %:
Smith 19.5
Vuc 16.9

Smith also scored pretty close to Vuc, turned the ball over less, and blocked shots twice as often.

Who is asking Vuc to conserve energy? I agree he does do that, but it's one of his biggest problems. He's an extremely low effort defender. Big guys that do that are IMO preoccupied with staying on the floor and putting up their counting stats.

I'd say Vuc is a good but certainly not great passer.

If he reverts to his career typical shooting numbers he's easily our 3rd best C behind Collins and Smith. Hell even Matas or Essengue might be better at the 5.

Typically players don't sustain their rate stats when asked to play double the minutes. Especially high energy kinda players. I just think you're overrating the backups relative to Vuc. Collins is straight up dog and I actually like Smith and wouldn't be opposed to him starting. I'd love to see him and Vuc play together but we know that'll never happen. I just think if other teams thought as highly about Smith as you do, he might've gotten a bigger payday than $8mil per.
The Vuc acquisition is nothing but disappointing, but I think he gets the Boozer treatment. He didn't save the franchise, but he's kinda just the guy he's always been. I thought re-signing him was a good idea, it's a pretty good contract, not an albatross, but I was expecting he'd be traded. Evidently the Bulls received 'some' trade offers for him and I wonder what they were. If it was bad money and some picks, I would've taken that in an instant. AK wouldn't though.

Found this quote: https://sports.yahoo.com/article/bulls-rumors-bulls-slapped-harsh-152917156.html

The Bulls have received multiple trade offers over the years for Nikola Vucevic. Now that the NBA has transitioned from teams attempting to compile the next superteam to prioritizing youth, depth, and players on team-friendly contracts, Chicago and Vucevic could be heading toward a buyout by midseason.

what do ya know, AK held on to a player too long, why does this not surprise me.

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:Not gonna detract too much from the actual thread topic, so this might be the last point to make, but 50%/37%, 58% TS seems sustainable at least for the last year on his deal. I wouldn't gamble on it, but my actual point is to let him play and maybe he can be traded. His Bulls tenure has been pretty consistent. I don't love PER but I think it's useful in comparing a player's season to one of his past seasons, and it's been in a range from 18-22 and so 20 (this past season) seems like a fair bet. His DBPM has been above 0 every season here except for one. His 'value over replacement player' has been consistently good. The statistics do not indicate that his defense has gotten significantly worse. His 82 game average is 3.5 DWS, has compiled 0.2 DBPM and he was at 2.6/0.1 last season.

61 TS% seems like an outlier, but maybe Giddey is helping his game and deep-sixing Zach probably helped in that regard too. 58% seems reasonable. Let him pump up his stats. He definitely isn't a bench player on this team.

If Vuc stays in a role largely as a perimeter oriented center on offense, and shoots / passes, and hits 40% from three again, then his offensive role will be okay. He did that pretty well post all-star break, so that's encouraging from how his use changed, and given that's the role he had after a conversation with him, I think the role will be the same this year.

Whether he can consistently convert in that role is another question, I have significant doubts about him being able to keep up his 3% and if it dips, its a huge problem, because no one guards him. He has to make him to punish teams from not guarding him, not just shoot at an adequate rate like 35%. If he hits 35% but is unguarded, that's still a huge blow to the offense as a whole.

I don't really think PER is much of a useful measure for Vuc, because PER massively overvalues rebounding, and Vuc is a good rebounder, but also not as good as his numbers, because centers collect so many default rebounds and he's so terrible on the offensive rebounding end where the rebounds have much more value.

DWS and DPBM are worthless defensive stats that have basically no correlation to anything, so I don't care about them even a tiny bit.

You've not addressed that over a four year period, the team has literally played better with any center other than Vuc on the roster, be it Tony Bradley, Derrick Jones Jr, Javonte Green at center, Jalen Smith, Andre Drummond, Zach Collins, it doesn't matter, literally every other center has created a better outcome on the floor than Vuc over a huge period of time, and while some of that is that our starters have generally played poorly, the same metrics were not consistent with any other starting players on the rosters, the other guys that have been largely killed were Ayo/Pat.

Again, I don't think this is necessarily the most important data, I don't really care for on/off numbers how most people use them, but looking at consistent outliers (positive of negative) that have been that way over a multi-year period has some meaning to me, and that has largely been Vuc.

dougthonus wrote:I would say:
Starters: Giddey, Coby, Okoro, Matas, Collins

I'd start with Ayo, Huerter, and Tre fighting backup minutes at the 1-3.
Pat / Essengue fighting for backup forward
Smith as the back up center

Initially out: Vuc, Terry, Philips, Carter

This is sort of beyond the scope of the premise of the thread, but in this universe, are you just buying out Vooch rather than dealing with the fallout of having him out of the rotation?

dougthonus wrote:

SalmonsSuperfan wrote:Not gonna detract too much from the actual thread topic, so this might be the last point to make, but 50%/37%, 58% TS seems sustainable at least for the last year on his deal. I wouldn't gamble on it, but my actual point is to let him play and maybe he can be traded. His Bulls tenure has been pretty consistent. I don't love PER but I think it's useful in comparing a player's season to one of his past seasons, and it's been in a range from 18-22 and so 20 (this past season) seems like a fair bet. His DBPM has been above 0 every season here except for one. His 'value over replacement player' has been consistently good. The statistics do not indicate that his defense has gotten significantly worse. His 82 game average is 3.5 DWS, has compiled 0.2 DBPM and he was at 2.6/0.1 last season.

61 TS% seems like an outlier, but maybe Giddey is helping his game and deep-sixing Zach probably helped in that regard too. 58% seems reasonable. Let him pump up his stats. He definitely isn't a bench player on this team.

If Vuc stays in a role largely as a perimeter oriented center on offense, and shoots / passes, and hits 40% from three again, then his offensive role will be okay. He did that pretty well post all-star break, so that's encouraging from how his use changed, and given that's the role he had after a conversation with him, I think the role will be the same this year.

Whether he can consistently convert in that role is another question, I have significant doubts about him being able to keep up his 3% and if it dips, its a huge problem, because no one guards him. He has to make him to punish teams from not guarding him, not just shoot at an adequate rate like 35%. If he hits 35% but is unguarded, that's still a huge blow to the offense as a whole.

I don't really think PER is much of a useful measure for Vuc, because PER massively overvalues rebounding, and Vuc is a good rebounder, but also not as good as his numbers, because centers collect so many default rebounds and he's so terrible on the offensive rebounding end where the rebounds have much more value.

DWS and DPBM are worthless defensive stats that have basically no correlation to anything, so I don't care about them even a tiny bit.

You've not addressed that over a four year period, the team has literally played better with any center other than Vuc on the roster, be it Tony Bradley, Derrick Jones Jr, Javonte Green at center, Jalen Smith, Andre Drummond, Zach Collins, it doesn't matter, literally every other center has created a better outcome on the floor than Vuc over a huge period of time, and while some of that is that our starters have generally played poorly, the same metrics were not consistent with any other starting players on the rosters, the other guys that have been largely killed were Ayo/Pat.
Again, I don't think this is necessarily the most important data, I don't really care for on/off numbers how most people use them, but looking at consistent outliers (positive of negative) that have been that way over a multi-year period has some meaning to me, and that has largely been Vuc.

Isn't that what BPM is though? Plus/minus with some adjustments? I posted about it a couple weeks ago, I don't think it's a great stat, I'm also not paying too much credence to +/- in general. Too many factors at play. Defensive stats in basketball are hard in general...I might actually be thinking about "real plus minus" but I don't think that's used anymore.
Although I think this is a pretty good post about its potential usefulness: https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/cvoiq9/basketball_stat_box_plusminus_bpm/
To me it might indicate "this player is probably not hurting as much as we might think". TBH, I was expecting Vuc's numbers here to look worse. He merely looks average or slightly below defensively across his career. Lavine at -1.3 and Vuc at 0.2 "feels" right. Gobert at 1.9 and Kawhi also at 1.9 checks out. Dwight at 2.4-2.8 during his DPOY seasons feels reasonable. Dray at 4.6 one season, 3.9 his DPOY year, seems like an outlier. I think it's an OK measuring stick. My 'eye test' is that Vuc is not as bad defensively as people think. The defense in general is bad. I'm thinking about how D Rose looked like a good defender for two years under Thibs, terrible under Del Negro, then simply not the same player after injury and downright horrible defensively. Rose's first 4 years DBPM: -1.5, -0.9, 0.5 (MVP year), 0.3...then after the injury, down to -1.9, -2.2....and all downhill from there.

What was that website that showed the on/off stats of various lineups? I'll take a look but can't remember what it's called. I'm definitely dubious that every other center is producing better outcomes though. Where are you looking? I think Billy is not a very good coach, but not so dumb as to give Vuc, a vet, entitlement minutes if he's actually hurting the team. Pat was finally benched and he's a "young player with potential". I think another savvier front office would've paid Jalen Smith at least slightly more to play for them if they thought he was a better player or anything more than a semi-useful backup. Tony Bradley?? Come on!! Is he even in the NBA anymore? DJJ was OK, but he was grabbing, like, 3 boards a game...literally 2.4 one of those years he was here. Defensive rebounding is an important metric even if it seems like low-hanging fruit.

jnrjr79 wrote:This is sort of beyond the scope of the premise of the thread, but in this universe, are you just buying out Vooch rather than dealing with the fallout of having him out of the rotation?

I don't feel super strongly about Vuc one way or the other, so if he started or played 2nd string or played 3rd string, I think the outcomes are all pretty similar to me. I'd have him as 3rd, but the gap between any of the 3 is so small that I wouldn't worry about it, and I'd probably rather have him on the roster for depth if I'm trying to win then just have a roster spot.

Maybe you will or won't be able to trade him for something later, but Zach Collins might also be useful to someone in a trade at the deadline, and having Vuc would allow you to trade Collins too, so I think I'd keep him on the roster for flexibility vs a buy out even if it requires me playing him some.

My general strategy for years would have been to really rebuild vs doing what we're doing, so part of this is putting my AK hat on and aiming what I would do based on the goals I think he has vs what I would do based on what I would really do if I were running the team.

dougthonus wrote:

jnrjr79 wrote:This is sort of beyond the scope of the premise of the thread, but in this universe, are you just buying out Vooch rather than dealing with the fallout of having him out of the rotation?

I don't feel super strongly about Vuc one way or the other, so if he started or played 2nd string or played 3rd string, I think the outcomes are all pretty similar to me. I'd have him as 3rd, but the gap between any of the 3 is so small that I wouldn't worry about it, and I'd probably rather have him on the roster for depth if I'm trying to win then just have a roster spot.

Maybe you will or won't be able to trade him for something later, but Zach Collins might also be useful to someone in a trade at the deadline, and having Vuc would allow you to trade Collins too, so I think I'd keep him on the roster for flexibility vs a buy out even if it requires me playing him some.

My general strategy for years would have been to really rebuild vs doing what we're doing, so part of this is putting my AK hat on and aiming what I would do based on the goals I think he has vs what I would do based on what I would really do if I were running the team.

Sure - my question was more based in whether a demotion of Vooch to the 3rd string is likely to cause locker room issues, complaining in the media, etc. that would outweigh the potential utility to keeping him as a trade chip or depth piece in the event you trade others.

I like this thread, especially if we can avoid making it a Vuc thread (which unfortunately I'm probably about to help do, though it is not my intent ).

One question: Are we to consider that these guys are real human beings? As in (sorry to invoke Vuc so quickly) can I just DNP Vuc the whole season and not worry that this would in fact be a ridiculously stupid idea on a "these are real humans" level?

I'll do it both ways.

THESE ARE NOT REAL HUMAN BEINGS:

PG: Giddey/Ayo/Tre
SG: Coby/Huerter/Ayo/Okoro
SF: Okoro/Pat/Buzelis
PF: Buzelis/Essengue/Pat
C: Smith/Collins

I didn't attach specific minutes to these players but some basic thoughts: (a) Giddey and Coby play 32+ mpg; (b) Smith and Collins essentially split time at the 5; (c) Essengue would be brought along relatively slowly early but I would look to play him at both forward positions in time if it is not visibly counter-productive to his own development; and (d) Okoro can be treated as a sunk cost - if he doesn't appear to have it, he should be demoted pretty quickly.

I would DNP Vuc, Carter, Terry and Phillips. The latter 3 because they are terrible and there are significantly higher upside players than them all over the roster.

With Vuc its due to 2 things: (a) his style of play inhibits our ability to fully evaluate the guys we need to be evaluating (most urgently Ayo and Coby, but also to a lesser extent Essengue, Matas and Giddey) in the setting we expect them to play in; and (b) I prefer small decisions here and there that depress winning next season. I do think completely benching him makes us a little worse, which is a good thing in my view.

THESE ARE REAL HUMAN BEINGS:

Same thing except Vuc begins as the starter at about 24 mpg and then gets about 20 MPG or less if I can't trade him by December 1st. One of Collins or Smith gets their minutes whacked until the trade deadline. After the trade deadline Vuc doesn't play anymore and can request to be waived to join a playoff team.