Youth vs. Vets - The Either-or-Fallacy

[bullzman23]

While I agree with Boylan that we need to steer the ship through our vets, I think the lack of youth development has been a major flaw in our coaching staff. The way people are talking, it almost sounds as if you can either only win with the vets or develop the youth (and lose). That's a fallacious way of thinking. It's easily possible to simultaneously play our vets, while developing our youth. Neither should come at the expense of the other. I'm not sure why this isn't brought up more.

Many posters even argue that the only way to develop Thomas/Noah is at the expense of Wallace/Smith. They are wrong. Other's argue that we will lose if we play our youth. They are wrong also. Balance is the key. If we keep playing Smith and Wallace heavy minutes we'll eventually break down. If we want to get past mediocrity it

[bullzman23]

Also, I didn't keep really take rotations into consideration, but there's a few things I'd like to suggest:

Noah should be paired a lot with Wallace: Noah has shown that his passing ability can get Wallace some easy looks. I also think that his hustle can hide Wallace's lazy play, and more often than not, will sort of energize Wallace himself. It also gives us more front-court height.

Gray and Thomas should be paired together: Thomas can take care of Gray's lack of mobility by covering the paint. Gray can take care of the post offense. Both are good passers and will find each other good looks.

Deng can play 6-8 mins at the two. Most teams play a SG at some point that either isn't much of an offensive threat or isn't too quick. When that occurs, we should try and put Deng at the two.

Thabo-Gordon: These two showed some nice chemistry on the floor last season. This year Thabo has been awful, but he still plays defense at a enough level for him to get bit minutes. Also, if BG plays point, you're going to want to surround him with extra ball-handlers.

[Sonny_D1]

You're right, balance is and always has been the key. But one thing many are failing to realize (I just mentioned this in another thread), the fact that we have a head coach "auditioning" for a permanent job makes it difficult to achieve that balance right now. Simply stated, Boylan wants the vets to be happy, which in turn will make everyone else happy. In addition, you know what you're going to get from Wallace and Smith, just enough to remain competitive and a 1st round payoff team.

With the rooks, you're going to get inconsistency, it's only natural, and inconsistency for a guy auditioning for a head coaching job in this league is a big no no.

While your breakdown in minutes looks good in theory, getting players those minutes in actual game situations is practically impossible. The actual 5 man rotation that you have out on the floor at any given moment plays a big part in how you're able to distribute those minutes. In other words, are you going to put Deng in at SG for 8 minutes just for the sake of getting Noc his 22 minutes, even if the game or matchup doesn't dictate doing so?

I find it funny when people come up with exact minute distribution for every player at different positions and think that you can translate it to the actual game. Hell, I find myself doing the same thing quite often as well. It can probably be done playing XBox 360, but rarely can you implement such a strategy in an actual game setting, ESPECIALLY when you're trying to get 11-12 guys into the game on a consistent basis.

[bullzman23]

You're right, balance is and always has been the key. But one thing many are failing to realize (I just mentioned this in another thread), the fact that we have a head coach "auditioning" for a permanent job makes it difficult to achieve that balance right now. Simply stated, Boylan wants the vets to be happy, which in turn will make everyone else happy. In addition, you know what you're going to get from Wallace and Smith, just enough to remain competitive and a 1st round payoff team.

With the rooks, you're going to get inconsistency, it's only natural, and inconsistency for a guy auditioning for a head coaching job in this league is a big no no.

While your breakdown in minutes looks good in theory, getting players those minutes in actual game situations is practically impossible. The actual 5 man rotation that you have out on the floor at any given moment plays a big part in how you're able to distribute those minutes. In other words, are you going to put Deng in at SG for 8 minutes just for the sake of getting Noc his 22 minutes, even if the game or matchup doesn't dictate doing so?

I find it funny when people come up with exact minute distribution for every player at different positions and think that you can translate it to the actual game. Hell, I find myself doing the same thing quite often as well. It can probably be done playing XBox 360, but rarely can you implement such a strategy in an actual game setting, ESPECIALLY when you're trying to get 11-12 guys into the game on a consistent basis.

I think most of the vet players would be happy with those minutes. I think a good coach comes up with a solid rotation. We saw it with Jerry Sloan. Stockton would go out mid way through the first quarter and Howard Eisley would come in. It didn't matter much if it was against Vancouver or if it was in the NBA Finals.

Jackson usually played Harper his 23 mpg, while finding Kerr 22 a game, and Randy Brown 15-16. Most good coaches have a set rotation, and try to get the opposing team to match up to them. We need to adopt that philosophy.

I also don't think it's too random to play Deng 6-8 mins at SG. Like I said, most teams have a guard that either isn't a scoring threat or isn't too fast, so Deng can easily defend those types of players.

You're right Boylan is auditioning for a job, but I still think he can win, keep the vets happy, and develop the youth on the court.

[Sonny_D1]

I think most of the vet players would be happy with those minutes. I think a good coach comes up with a solid rotation. We saw it with Jerry Sloan. Stockton would go out mid way through the first quarter and Howard Eisley would come in. It didn't matter much if it was against Vancouver or if it was in the NBA Finals.

Jackson usually played Harper his 23 mpg, while finding Kerr 22 a game, and Randy Brown 15-16. Most good coaches have a set rotation, and try to get the opposing team to match up to them. We need to adopt that philosophy.

I also don't think it's too random to play Deng 6-8 mins at SG. Like I said, most teams have a guard that either isn't a scoring threat or isn't too fast, so Deng can easily defend those types of players.

You're right Boylan is auditioning for a job, but I still think he can win, keep the vets happy, and develop the youth on the court.

Sure, you can implement a "solid" rotation when you have superstars like MJ, Stockton and Malone. It's fairly easy to get guys certain minutes in usually the same moments of every game. That's why it's so important to have a superstar. Unfortunately, we don't have one.

I'm not saying you need a superstar to have a set rotation, but right now we don't know what the hell we have. I'd like to try and get guys minutes to see exactly who they are and what they can be, even so far as to suggest we get 12 guys consistent minutes. If you look back at the Ron Harper days, and even before that, PJ stuck with a pretty tight 8 man rotation (only 7-8 players consistently got more than 20 minutes). Everyone else was there to fill specific roles or fill in the garbage minutes.

The point I'm trying to make is we don't have guys we can consistently count on game after game, night after night. Offensively, we know BG will be there at the end, but besides him, who else can you say we can count on? We've even seen with BG and his shortcomings that he can't even be counted on as much as we'd like.

Again, I'd like a nice tight 8-9 man rotation just as much as everyone else, but until we see more of the kids we're just not close to even realizing that goal.

[bullzman23]

-= original quote snipped =-



Sure, you can implement a "solid" rotation when you have superstars like MJ, Stockton and Malone. It's fairly easy to get guys certain minutes in usually the same moments of every game. That's why it's so important to have a superstar. Unfortunately, we don't have one.

I'm not saying you need a superstar to have a set rotation, but right now we don't know what the hell we have. We're trying to get guys minutes to see exactly who they are and what they can be, even so far as to suggest we get 12 guys consistent minutes. If you look back at the Ron Harper days, and even before that, PJ stuck with a pretty tight 8 man rotation (only 7-8 players consistently got more than 20 minutes). Everyone else was there to fill specific roles or fill in the garbage minutes.

The point I'm trying to make is we don't have guys we can consistently count on game after game, night after night. Offensively, we know BG will be there at the end, but besides him, who else can you say we can count on? We've even seen with BG and his shortcomings that he can't even be counted on as much as we'd like.

Again, I'd like a nice tight 8-9 man rotation just as much as everyone else, but until we see more of the kids we're just not close to even realizing that goal.

I don't know if I agree. Hubie Brown managed to get set rotations despite not having a true star. And with Sefolosha and Gray combining to get only 12 mpg it's not exactly like they're major cogs in the rotation. If you cut those two out, that's only a 9 man rotation, which isn't anything out of the ordinary.

Not knowing what Thomas and Noah are isn't a good reason to not play them. The set 14-18 mpg is there to develop them. A coach needs to give them those minutes even during bad games. It's the best way for them to learn.

You mentioned that PJ only got 7-8 players 20 or more minutes... I actually only have six players getting 20 or more minutes.

[Sonny_D1]

I don't know if I agree. Hubie Brown managed to get set rotations despite not having a true star. And with Sefolosha and Gray combining to get only 12 mpg it's not exactly like they're major cogs in the rotation. If you cut those two out, that's only a 9 man rotation, which isn't anything out of the ordinary.

Not knowing what Thomas and Noah are isn't a good reason to not play them. The set 14-18 mpg is there to develop them. A coach needs to give them those minutes even during bad games. It's the best way for them to learn.

You mentioned that PJ only got 7-8 players 20 or more minutes... I actually only have six players getting 20 or more minutes.

You mentioned the Ron Harper days, I was referring to those teams. He had 7 players average more than 20 minutes on those teams. But yeah, the first 3peat teams he had an even tighter rotation, with only 4 guys averaging more than 20 minutes in 1992. I shouldn't say tighter, rather more guys with lesser minutes.

Also, I think you're misunderstanding me. I WANT to give Tyrus and Noah more minutes, even more minutes than what you're proposing. I also want minutes for Gray and Sefolosha as well. My point is because this will more than likely lead to some inconsistency, Boylan is probably less lilely to play them because he is auditioning for a job. Unfortunately right now it's coming at the expense of the kids' development. And personally I really don't see that changing much anytime soon.

[JeremyB0001]

Yeah, I mean I think there are a number of ways to give the young players reasonable minutes, Boylan just doesn't believe in it. Even if you don't want to play Lu at SG, you could take Wallace down to 28-30 MPG while playing Noc 10 MPG at SF and 10 MPG at PF and voila, you have meaningful minutes for Tyrus and Noah. Boylan believes he needs to shorten the rotation and have the vets lead the way. I wish I was 100% convinced that's because he's positive that's the way we'll win the most games, but I get the impression some of it is based on principle instead.

[Rerisen]

It makes sense in theory. But I just don't see it as reality.

For some of us we don't believe in the Boylan line that the vets are going to 'right the ship' or at least they won't necessarily right it any faster than playing the young'ins. And I'm not sure Pax believes it either. If we keep losing, expect Boylan to get some more specific orders, heck, that's a big part of the reason it made sense to hire a interim coach in the first place. So Pax could have more affect on the players *he* put here.

One thing people are probably not thinking about in what we are doing. Say we do 'right the ship' (with Ben and Joe). How in the heck does that become a recommendation to then go away from it and start playing the young guys more? It isn't. If anything, there will be a 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' mentality. As well as a increasing feeling that going back to the young guys much more at that point, would be foolhardy since clearly the season is being saved by the vets.

I'm not saying Boylan might not still slowly inch their minutes or continue to treat each game as a 'audition for role player status' like he is doing now somewhat randomly between Noah, Tyrus and Gray. But it's not good enough. Tonight Tyrus played 3 minutes and was like a puppy out of the cage he was so excited, bumping into other players, falling down, and trying to keep his head on straight. But in 3 minutes he was back in the cage before he could even get his bearings. By comparison, Channing Frye did nothing significantly more impressive than TT and he played 18 minutes for Portland! Przybilla even got 14 minutes while doing nothing but getting a few rebounds. Our guys need more time. And the way they are being used now, it is not likely they are going to have many impressive 3 minute runs to ever deserve more. Noah's bust out the other night was a anomaly probably more created by the matchup vs Gerald Wallace (6'7) at PF than anything else. If he continued to get those large minutes he could surely produce, but most often it will take more patience and his success won't be instantly apparent like it was that game.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

We're losing already, what the hell difference does it make?

I'd rather lose with Tyrus, Noah, Thabo and Gray playing major minutes than seeing Wallace, Smith, Duhon and Old Man Griffin on the court.


What do we have to lose at this point? Other than my f*&^'ing sanity.

[C3]

Also if given minutes, Noah could prove to be the best Bigman on the team.

A few more minutes spent on the young guys probably would have made the difference yesterday. By the second overtime, not one of are starters had anything left to give, and it showed. Boylan should have recognized this.

[TB#1]

+1 to Bullzman's posts.

[tclg]

Noah is the best big man on the team