RealGM

Okay, so many of you know that I've thought for a long time the Bulls are not going to win a title with this current group. They're likable and talented, but ultimately not championship caliber good.

2010 off season is when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh can all become unrestricted free agents. Now all of these guys will be able to get bigger deals if they return to their home team, but if their home teams are a mess they may consider making a move.

Let's look at the Bulls current roster in that year. We actually have very few players locked up that year right now:

Kirk Hinrich: 9,000,000
Andres Nocioni: 6,850,000
Joakim Noah: 3,128,356 (assuming we pick up his option)
Total: 18,978,356

Tyrus and Thabo will be RFAs, and Gordon and Deng will have to be resolved this year. Aaron Gray will be a FA the year prior to this, and will need to be figured out as well. We'll likely have a couple more rookie deals that will be cheap because they will be mid round selections. I don't think anyone else on the present roster is worth considering.

So obviously this plan centers around getting LeBron, Bosh, or Wade. Of the 3, Bosh seems to be the guy who has a shot in hell of having talent built around him. Miami and Cleveland's rosters are train wrecks when it comes to surrounding their guys with talent. LeBron has to be considered the primary target because his roster is a train wreck and because he's got the marketing clause about playing in a big city which would elevate his deal to eclipse the extra money Cleveland could offer him. Plus his roster is a mess.

So who do you keep to surround LeBron with?

I think you keep Ben Gordon and Joakim Noah for sure. Gordon would be deadly playing alongside LeBron because of his shooting, Noah is so cheap on this deal that there's no way you trade him (since we need to maximize cap space available). You probably keep Hinrich, because I don't think you could get a better player for less, and he plays better off the ball which he'd basically be doing a lot more with LeBron as a point forward.

You trade Deng, because really, where do LeBron and Deng play together? They're both basically pure 3s, and you don't want to build your roster based around going small. You want to keep Tyrus if he becomes the type of player he could become in the next few years, because he'd be a guy who could really take advantage of LeBron's passing ability on basket cuts.

So I've identified our roster at this point as:
Hinrich
Gordon
pray LeBron signs with us
Tyrus
Noah
+ 3 mid 1st round picks on the bench (08, 09, and 10 drafts)


Hinrich is settled in at 9,000,000, and Noah at 3 million, so that's 12 million. Say we lock up gordon for 10 million a year on average, then his salary in this year will be 9.6 million, which bumps up the team salary to 21 million. Say Tyrus also gets 10 million a year average, his starting salary will be 8 million which puts us at 9 million. Let's say our draft picks are all 15 and later then that adds maybe another 4 million total in salary putting us at 34 million.

What do you do with Deng when you don't want to bring back future salary? You have to trade him for picks. Trade Luol Deng to New York in a S&T for Jerome James, whomever they draft this year (probably only works if they don't pick in the top 4). If New York is out of the top 4 then this is almost a no brainer for New York who dumps off James's ridiculously bad contract and fulfills their desire to never rebuild plus Deng is probably better than the guy they get in 2008 by a significant margin anyway unless they land in the top 3 or 4 picks. This player will cost us about 3 million in that year, so now the roster salary state is 37 million. If we can't do it with New York, then we move Deng for the best lotto pick/deal ending prior to 2010 that we can.

So you've got $37 million and the following players:
Hinrich 30
Gordon 27
Tyrus 24
Noah 25

Lotto rookie from New York: ~23
Our 3 mid round rookies 20~24 each.

That situation looks awfully attractive for LeBron James to come into doesn't it? You've got a cast of young veterans who have a lot of experience and a lot of talent with a natural hole at your position. The team has cap space to make you a max offer, and your marketing deal goes up by a ton plus you get a bigger spotlight. That team, plus LeBron, looks like it's made to win a title especially if the Knicks pick turns into a good player.

Now, at this point Cleveland has no one under contract except LeBron. However, they won't have cap space prior to this year by any significant amount, which means Cleveland will basically be in a situation where going into this year they'll have the same horrible roster. They will have a hard time (even with near 100% cap space) bringing in FAs, because they will have such huge salary cap holds on existing players if they want to keep any. If htey don't want to keep any, then they'll have to fill out the entire roster outside of LeBron James (and whomever they acquire in the mean time who's contract extends into that point) from scratch which won't be easy to build a competitive group with.

How risky is this plan? Sure it's risky. Bosh, LeBron, and Wade could all balk on you, and you really need to set the team up for one of those guys and hope that one says yes, as the roster I composed doesn't look as good if you add Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade. However, the team wouldn't absolutely stink in the mean time or anything. You'd stilll have a core of talented players around you to fill the seats.

I agree with you doug. I've sort of said in other threads regarding LeBron's next free agency, that's he'll be out of Cleveland. The way things look in Cleveland, that doesn't seem too unrealistic. Not to mention you have Danny Ferry as your GM. I think its imperative to have a moderately winning team, and that will eventually be a selling point to those stars listed (Wade, 'Bron, Bosh etc.). I wonder what jersey # 'Bron would wear in Chicago? I like #32

So I've identified our roster at this point as:
Hinrich
Gordon
pray LeBron signs with us
Tyrus
Noah
+ 3 mid 1st round picks on the bench (08, 09, and 10 drafts)

Though I'm way too big of a chicken to advocate the necessary moves on the prayer that LeBron James signs with Chicago, that lineup is positively dynastic.

I like the idea, but if I was management I wouldn't think about this until I have a good idea of wether or not one of those players is looking at Chicago seriously. Chris Bosh seems to love Toronto like few other US players have, Dwyane Wade I believe is geared up to bring Miami back to respectability over the next few years, and LeBron is the hometown kid. Most likely to leave, as you said, I think is LeBron. LeBron I believe would absolutely love to be a Chicago Bull, but wether or not he actually would sign with us is another story.

I think your plan is very well put together - definately no where near as drastic as others have posted. I like the idea and am all for it if early playoff knockouts continue, but I would hope management would have a very strong idea of wether or not one of these guys were gonna sign before we send a guy like Deng off.

It sounds great to build around a potential Superstar. I am all for that plan and agree that it is probably the only way that a Championship will happen.

I have a couple of issues with your suggestions, though.

1. I'm not sure our midget backcourt of Gordon and Hinrich is the way to go for the future even with a Lebron on the team.

2. I can't see why a career bench player who will likely never develop a consistent offensive game should be a $10 MM a year player (Tyrus). Perhaps that was said about Chandler and look at him now, but I really think there are better ways to spend your salary cap than on a guy that truly looks lost out there every other game.

3. Deng is a borderline all-star and probably the best player on the team (albeit soft and not a closer). You HAVE to get more back in trade for him than another unproven draft pick. Perhaps looking at how Boston has turned things around would be a good model. Trade for a veteran with a nice outside shot (Ray Allen) or keep Deng and make him better with a great #1 option (a la Pierce).

4. The hardest part of all of this is getting the Superstar to sign here. It would seem that if these guys are leaving their teams, they are going to play with another star level player. The Bulls have some nice pieces, but as we have seen this year, really not any nicer than a dozen other upstart young teams.

Sorry to be so negative - I have really cut down my posts this year because I don't have much nice to say about these players or this team...

nycrich wrote:2. I can't see why a career bench player who will likely never develop a consistent offensive game should be a $10 MM a year player (Tyrus).

LOL... By career, you mean the first 100 games of his career even though he has clearly outplayed the players who were in front of him (PJ Brown, Joe Smith).

How does Lebron ever get to the unrestricted point? I mean, if Cleveland could see they might lose him, wouldn't they engineer a trade? Ferry makes some dumb moves but I don't think he's gonna pull an Orlando Magic with Lebron. I think our only chance to acquire Lebron is to be that team trading for him, and our best shot at that would be when Lebron has about a year and a half left on his deal and we can use Wallace's expiring.

^^If he's smart and he doesn't want his new team to be gutted before he gets there, he will keep his desire to leave quiet, giving the indication/impression he's willing to resign, and then when the offseason comes around he can do what he wants.

Although perhaps they would try to extend him before the current deal ends, and if he refuses an extension that might be the red flag you refer to? I dunno...

His current deal is a player option, so they can't extend him. He can just choose whether to exercise his option or become a FA. He'll almost certainly become a FA, because even if he doesn't leave Cleveland he can get a newer bigger deal from Cleveland.

Doug,

I'm glad you posted this. I was going to post a long future plan that involved LeBron, Wade, or Bosh, but I didn't because I figured I would get laughed at.

For the most part, I agree.

I'm still not a fan of the undersized backcourt, but it works better with LeBron.

In this scenario, I think Kirk is the odd man out. Gordon's ball handling deficiencies can be hidden with LeBron playing point forward, and he would feast off all the open 3 point looks. It would be ridiculous.

I'd move Kirk for an athletic wing who can run with LeBron. Maybe even, ***gasp*** Thabo could develop into that guy. If he can develop a functional jump shot, he could play the 2.

We'd be taking a HUGE risk, but winning a title is all about risk and/or absurd luck.


I'm on board with ya, doug.

Wow this is giving me flashbacks.

1. Deng for pick reminds me of Brand for Chandler.

2. Clear a bun of cap space for a star. McGrady anyone? Maybe we can get Krause out of retirement to meet Lebron with benny the bull.

3. At the point of James running from the cavs, wouldn't we be able to still essentially do the same with Deng+fillers+picks for Bron?

Edit: Maybe if all of those FA's don't sign with us we can pick up a Ron Mercer/Eddie Robinson type to play sf instead of Deng.

1. I'm not sure our midget backcourt of Gordon and Hinrich is the way to go for the future even with a Lebron on the team.

I'm not sure either. I would consider moving Hinrich in my plan too, but it seemed just as reasonable to keep him. I think Gordon would be absolutely devastating with LeBron on the team because he's just a great pure shooter and would get so many open looks. Hinrich plays better off the ball, and LeBron would obviously dominate the ball in this offense, so I could see keeping him. If I were to remove one of these guards then Hinrich would be the one I would lose. With LeBron we don't need a true PG on the team, so Gordon's potential deficiencies in that role are minimized and we could get a bigger combo guard if we feel necessary.

In this case, we may want to trade Deng for that guard, but it likely necessitates trading Hinrich for an expiring deal or picks in order to keep the cap space open.

2. I can't see why a career bench player who will likely never develop a consistent offensive game should be a $10 MM a year player (Tyrus). Perhaps that was said about Chandler and look at him now, but I really think there are better ways to spend your salary cap than on a guy that truly looks lost out there every other game.

I'm not saying Tyrus needs to be paid 10 million per year. I was saying Tyrus seems like a good guy to play with LeBron because he's a great at the basket finisher who could clean up a lot of plays. He's a strong defender as well, and he'll be young and still very experienced at the time. If, after 4 years, Tyrus doesn't look like a legit NBA player then we're obviously not going to keep him at that price. We can keep him at a lesser price or we can let him go in a S&T or let him go outright and keep more cap space.

3. Deng is a borderline all-star and probably the best player on the team (albeit soft and not a closer). You HAVE to get more back in trade for him than another unproven draft pick. Perhaps looking at how Boston has turned things around would be a good model. Trade for a veteran with a nice outside shot (Ray Allen) or keep Deng and make him better with a great #1 option (a la Pierce).

This is just it though, you can't keep everyone and keep the cap space open. You can't trade him for a current good player and keep cap space open. You basically have to lose someone good for draft picks and cap space. You could alternatively try this with Hinrich or Gordon, but you probably wouldn't get a good pick for either player, and then once you got LeBron here you'd have to figure out a way to use Luol Deng and LeBron together (which I don't think would work at all) or you'd then need to move Deng for another player at that time. It seems easier to let Deng go for picks / cap space now rather than letting Hinrich go for nothing and hoping we can trade Deng for something better than Hinrich + the pick we could get now.

4. The hardest part of all of this is getting the Superstar to sign here. It would seem that if these guys are leaving their teams, they are going to play with another star level player. The Bulls have some nice pieces, but as we have seen this year, really not any nicer than a dozen other upstart young teams.

I agree.

There are several mitigating factors:
1) LeBron's marketing deal pays him a ton more to be in Chicago, LA, or New York. So initially he would probably favor one of those teams. Of those teams, the Bulls are the only ones likely to be able to make a play for LeBron outright if my scenario goes down. The Knicks also would be unlikely to have a good cast for him. The Lakers would have Bryant, but 2 perimeter ball dominating players has never really been successful in the NBA.

2) The Bulls would have a cast of guys with playoff experience who fit basically perfectly around LeBron. They'd have all other positions covered, have good defenders, good shooters, good finishers, and they should have a good bench. They'd still be young and poised to have a run for the rest of LeBron's prime as well.

3) Cleveland doesn't look like it will be in any position to surround LeBron with anything at this point in time. So his odds of leaving seem particularly high to me.

What is the downside to this plan?

I'm giving up Luol Deng for a high draft pick who may develop into as a player who's just as good or better, and I'm giving up Andreas Nocioni for anyone who will take him, but that would free up time for our other players anyway. This plan doesn't really have massive risk attached to it IMO.

Wow this is giving me flashbacks.
1. Deng for pick reminds me of Brand for Chandler.

It does in a great number of ways. It's a trade designed to not necessarily win the trade.

2. Clear a bun of cap space for a star. McGrady anyone? Maybe we can get Krause out of retirement to meet Lebron with benny the bull.

The Bulls as an organization may have a better rep around the league this time around. The whole league doesn't hate Paxson like it does Krause, and the star would be going to a playoff team surrounded by very good young talent instead of unproven players.

3. At the point of James running from the cavs, wouldn't we be able to still essentially do the same with Deng+fillers+picks for Bron?

This is a good counter point, the problem is that we would not have the ability to threaten to take LeBron from the cavs outright, and the cavs are probably playing hardball then, because it would kill their franchise to lose him. The Cavs probably won't trade LeBron unless there is a viable threat he leaves for nothing.

The plan of keeping everyone and just keeping our options open to do a S&T for LeBron (or one of the other guys) is also worth considering. That might be much better than taking the risk of creating the cap space. On the other hand, the plan of opening cap space definitely maximizes your odds of landing LeBron (or one of the other stars), going with the current plan as is and being open to a S&T is an excellent hedge though and may make a lot more sense then my balls to the wall go for it plan.

True our rep is better around the leauge now is better but when exactly in the new cba has a star player left their team without any compensation? ben wallace? I haven't seen any players just get up and leave. Even the ones with cap space like Orlando and Rashard Lewis did a trade to get Lewis the most money. I just can't see any of them going without a trade. Plus keeping deng gives us more flexibility, if wade is the one leaving you can offer Kirk or gordon and still have deng at sf. Also in all of the recent transactions for stars, the stars have listed a few teams they will go to allowing the receiving team leverage. If Bron pulls a Kobe and follows through, Clevland will not let him rot on the bench, they will have to trade him. I mean Kobe has a no trade clause and all but he vetoed the trade and Lebron will have similar power.

I dont like the idea of giving up Deng for picks. To me, risking everything on the hope that Cleveland won't offer more money is flawed reasoning.

I'm much more in favor of trying all possible to get a star with our current pieces. Even if that means we're getting someone's disgruntled star (TMac?)

It's still better than just giving away someone like Deng, in hope that the stars will align. We have to make a move happen, not simply hope that one will. Plus, Lebron is from Ohio, so it's not just $ that comes into play with that as well. He can finish his career being Cleveland's all time biggest star.

If all we have is Ben Gordon and a couple role guys, he wont be screaming to leave all that for Chicago.

dougthonus wrote:Okay, so many of you know that I've thought for a long time the Bulls are not going to win a title with this current group. They're likable and talented, but ultimately not championship caliber good.

2010 off season is when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh can all become unrestricted free agents. Now all of these guys will be able to get bigger deals if they return to their home team, but if their home teams are a mess they may consider making a move.

Let's look at the Bulls current roster in that year. We actually have very few players locked up that year right now:

Kirk Hinrich: 9,000,000
Andres Nocioni: 6,850,000
Joakim Noah: 3,128,356 (assuming we pick up his option)
Total: 18,978,356

Tyrus and Thabo will be RFAs, and Gordon and Deng will have to be resolved this year. Aaron Gray will be a FA the year prior to this, and will need to be figured out as well. We'll likely have a couple more rookie deals that will be cheap because they will be mid round selections. I don't think anyone else on the present roster is worth considering.

So obviously this plan centers around getting LeBron, Bosh, or Wade. Of the 3, Bosh seems to be the guy who has a shot in hell of having talent built around him. Miami and Cleveland's rosters are train wrecks when it comes to surrounding their guys with talent. LeBron has to be considered the primary target because his roster is a train wreck and because he's got the marketing clause about playing in a big city which would elevate his deal to eclipse the extra money Cleveland could offer him. Plus his roster is a mess.

So who do you keep to surround LeBron with?

I think you keep Ben Gordon and Joakim Noah for sure. Gordon would be deadly playing alongside LeBron because of his shooting, Noah is so cheap on this deal that there's no way you trade him (since we need to maximize cap space available). You probably keep Hinrich, because I don't think you could get a better player for less, and he plays better off the ball which he'd basically be doing a lot more with LeBron as a point forward.

You trade Deng, because really, where do LeBron and Deng play together? They're both basically pure 3s, and you don't want to build your roster based around going small. You want to keep Tyrus if he becomes the type of player he could become in the next few years, because he'd be a guy who could really take advantage of LeBron's passing ability on basket cuts.

So I've identified our roster at this point as:
Hinrich
Gordon
pray LeBron signs with us
Tyrus
Noah
+ 3 mid 1st round picks on the bench (08, 09, and 10 drafts)


Hinrich is settled in at 9,000,000, and Noah at 3 million, so that's 12 million. Say we lock up gordon for 10 million a year on average, then his salary in this year will be 9.6 million, which bumps up the team salary to 21 million. Say Tyrus also gets 10 million a year average, his starting salary will be 8 million which puts us at 9 million. Let's say our draft picks are all 15 and later then that adds maybe another 4 million total in salary putting us at 34 million.

What do you do with Deng when you don't want to bring back future salary? You have to trade him for picks. Trade Luol Deng to New York in a S&T for Jerome James, whomever they draft this year (probably only works if they don't pick in the top 4). If New York is out of the top 4 then this is almost a no brainer for New York who dumps off James's ridiculously bad contract and fulfills their desire to never rebuild plus Deng is probably better than the guy they get in 2008 by a significant margin anyway unless they land in the top 3 or 4 picks. This player will cost us about 3 million in that year, so now the roster salary state is 37 million. If we can't do it with New York, then we move Deng for the best lotto pick/deal ending prior to 2010 that we can.

So you've got $37 million and the following players:
Hinrich 30
Gordon 27
Tyrus 24
Noah 25

Lotto rookie from New York: ~23
Our 3 mid round rookies 20~24 each.

That situation looks awfully attractive for LeBron James to come into doesn't it? You've got a cast of young veterans who have a lot of experience and a lot of talent with a natural hole at your position. The team has cap space to make you a max offer, and your marketing deal goes up by a ton plus you get a bigger spotlight. That team, plus LeBron, looks like it's made to win a title especially if the Knicks pick turns into a good player.

Now, at this point Cleveland has no one under contract except LeBron. However, they won't have cap space prior to this year by any significant amount, which means Cleveland will basically be in a situation where going into this year they'll have the same horrible roster. They will have a hard time (even with near 100% cap space) bringing in FAs, because they will have such huge salary cap holds on existing players if they want to keep any. If htey don't want to keep any, then they'll have to fill out the entire roster outside of LeBron James (and whomever they acquire in the mean time who's contract extends into that point) from scratch which won't be easy to build a competitive group with.

How risky is this plan? Sure it's risky. Bosh, LeBron, and Wade could all balk on you, and you really need to set the team up for one of those guys and hope that one says yes, as the roster I composed doesn't look as good if you add Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade. However, the team wouldn't absolutely stink in the mean time or anything. You'd stilll have a core of talented players around you to fill the seats.

Why do that when we can compete now with the following.

This is what we need to do.

Bulls Trade: Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, Chris Duhon
Bulls Get: Vince Carter, Jamal Magloire, Pau Gasol, Damon Stoudemire


Bulls/Nets/Grizzlies Deal - Trade Machine

Lineup
PG Hinrich/Stoudemire
SG V.Carter/Thabo
SF Deng/Viktor/Griffin
PF Smith/Noah
C Gasol/Magloire/Gray

That team would be in the title hunt for the next 3 years IMHO.

JordansBulls wrote:Why do that when we can compete now with the following.

This is what we need to do.

Bulls Trade: Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, Chris Duhon
Bulls Get: Vince Carter, Jamal Magloire, Pau Gasol, Damon Stoudemire


Bulls/Nets/Grizzlies Deal - Trade Machine

Lineup
PG Hinrich/Stoudemire
SG V.Carter/Thabo
SF Deng/Viktor/Griffin
PF Smith/Noah
C Gasol/Magloire/Gray

That team would be in the title hunt for the next 3 years IMHO.

Shouldn't this be in green font?

AAU Teammate wrote:I dont like the idea of giving up Deng for picks. To me, risking everything on the hope that Cleveland won't offer more money is flawed reasoning.

I'm much more in favor of trying all possible to get a star with our current pieces. Even if that means we're getting someone's disgruntled star (TMac?)

It's still better than just giving away someone like Deng, in hope that the stars will align. We have to make a move happen, not simply hope that one will. Plus, Lebron is from Ohio, so it's not just $ that comes into play with that as well. He can finish his career being Cleveland's all time biggest star.

If all we have is Ben Gordon and a couple role guys, he wont be screaming to leave all that for Chicago.

If LeBron opts out, he'll be unrestricted. Cleveland wouldn't have an opportunity to match. Besides, his basketball contract is almost incidental. He gets FAR more off endorsements, so it would be silly to go to Cleveland only for a little bit more.

LeBron said he wants to be a "global icon". I'm sure he loves Ohio, but I doubt he would have much of a problem leaving. He signed the short extension to put pressure on Cleveland management to make things happen. They haven't done it.

True our rep is better around the leauge now is better but when exactly in the new cba has a star player left their team without any compensation? ben wallace? I haven't seen any players just get up and leave. Even the ones with cap space like Orlando and Rashard Lewis did a trade to get Lewis the most money. I just can't see any of them going without a trade.

There have been very few UFAs worth mentioning under the current CBA, so the sample size here is near zero. There have also historically never been teams that have a quality roster and cap space at the same time.

Plus keeping deng gives us more flexibility, if wade is the one leaving you can offer Kirk or gordon and still have deng at sf. Also in all of the recent transactions for stars, the stars have listed a few teams they will go to allowing the receiving team leverage.

It's a fair point, but if we don't have the initial leverage to make an offer to LeBron would Cleveland even consider doing a S&T?

If Bron pulls a Kobe and follows through, Clevland will not let him rot on the bench, they will have to trade him. I mean Kobe has a no trade clause and all but he vetoed the trade and Lebron will have similar power.

LeBron isn't likely to pull a Kobe though, he's only got to wait 2 years after this one before he's a UFA anyway, and he'll still be very young at that point. The ticker on his clock as a player isnt' nearly as far along as Kobes is.

I also think you underestimate what LeBron means to the Cavs. He's the entire franchise. I think the value of the franchise went up by something like 200 million dollars once they drafted him and it was clear he was going to be a stud. They will play absolute hard ball with LeBron in every way possible. LeBron needs a viable situation to jump to to leave. He's not going to leave to another team without talent via cap space, because he might as well stay in Cleveland then. He's not going to leave for the MLE most likely (though maybe he'll be the first to do something like that), so there needs to be a good team with cap space otherwise I think the Cavs just say take our max offer or goto a different crappy team for less money or give up 70 million bucks to go to a good team. Neither scenario is very attractive to Lebron IMO.

I do agree your plan gives us more flexibility, and it requires almost no risk (you just try and do a S&T when they are available and make yourself a player). I think it does lower your odds of getting one of those guys quite a bit though.