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Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:07 pm**

Seeing Noc's explosion to start the last game just got me wondering. Is Nocioni a better scorer than Deng? And if so (or if equal) does that have any implications on our willingness to trade Deng?

Last year Per 48 minutes.

Nocioni 25.6 Points, 57.8 TS%
Deng 24.1 Points, 56.0 TS%

This year Per 48

Noc 25.6 Points, 52.2 TS%
Deng 24.3 Points, 51.6 TS%

Noc also out rebounded Deng per 48 last year, though Deng gets more steals and assists. And yes, Noc can tend to suck on defense at times. The question is not is he better, but a better scorer, which does have some implications on how will he could fill that spot in a full time capacity.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:11 pm**

Nocioni gets more rebounds because he often plays PF and is closer to the basket than Deng.

AS a scorer, he's not better, because he takes easier shots. He also is far streakier, and streakiness isn't something you want out of your scorers. Consistency will give you a better chance to win in the playoffs. His TS% is largely higher because he shoots so many 3s.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:13 pm**

dougthonus wrote:Nocioni gets more rebounds because he often plays PF and is closer to the basket than Deng.

AS a scorer, he's not better, because he takes easier shots. He also is far streakier, and streakiness isn't something you want out of your scorers. Consistency will give you a better chance to win in the playoffs. His TS% is largely higher because he shoots so many 3s.

Quoted for absolute troof.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:14 pm**

So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug? :-?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:17 pm**

Rerisen wrote:So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

I'm pretty sure Doug is talking about "degree of difficulty". i.e. Deng taking a shot with the shot clock winding down, as opposed to Noc standing around at the 3 point line and waiting for the open look.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:22 pm**

Magilla_Gorilla wrote:I'm pretty sure Doug is talking about "degree of difficulty". i.e. Deng taking a shot with the shot clock winding down, as opposed to Noc standing around at the 3 point line and waiting for the open look.

I would think you would want a scorer to be able to get easier shots. Getting closer is not helpful if your shots do not become easier.

The true shooting stat weights each type of shot accordingly. So unless we are going to say the weights are wrong, it sounds like rationalizing to get the answer we think makes the most sense to say Deng is the better scorer. It's more like a wash. And actually quite remarkable how similar their production is over the same minutes.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:31 pm**

Rerisen wrote:I would think you would want a scorer to be able to get easier shots. Getting closer is not helpful if your shots do not become easier.

I don't know if you are intentionally misunderstanding, or if I was confusing in what I said. Deng takes tougher shots because he is many times the last option (i.e. thrown the ball with 3 seconds on the clock)

Nocioni on the other hand sits at the three point line, waits for someone else to do the work, and then shoots an open 3 pointer.

Jason Kapono has a 62%TS, I wouldn't call him anywhere near a good scorer. A great 3pt specialist sure, but not a great scorer.

The true shooting stat weights each type of shot accordingly. So unless we are going to say the weights are wrong, it sounds like rationalizing to get the answer we think makes the most sense to say Deng is the better scorer. It's more like a wash. And actually quite remarkable how similar their production is over the same minutes.

Excuse me, but correct me if I am wrong - TS% does not take into account anything other than if it was a 2 or 3 pointer (and free throws) - it does not account for whether that shot was taken with 15 seconds on the shot clock or one second.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:43 pm**

I actually think Deng takes easier shots. A lot of his midrange jumpers are fairly open, while Noce forces a lot of the action.

Noce might be a better scorer, because he tends to take a lot of shots he probably shouldn't be taking. Deng plays more within the flow of the offense.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:45 pm**

Magilla_Gorilla wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Excuse me, but correct me if I am wrong - TS% does not take into account anything other than if it was a 2 or 3 pointer (and free throws) - it does not account for whether that shot was taken with 15 seconds on the shot clock or one second.

The Bulls evenly distribute shots that its not like Deng is Kobe Bryant here constantly getting dumped the ball with 3 seconds left come on. It happens to him no more than Gordon or Kirk, and perhaps less so, because we know he is not a creator and the guards tend to still have the ball often when the clock is running out. When Nocioni is in the game he is every bit as a last option as Deng and I would think any differences in 'last second heaves' would be extremely insignificant. And it certainly doesn't jive with what I have watched , every game of this season.

According to 82games.com Deng takes 9% of his shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock and shoots 39%. Noc takes 13% of his shots in the last 4 seconds and shoots 40%. The evidence doesn't support this reasoning.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:56 pm**

Nocioni might have the numbers in his favor but as stated, Deng is far more consistent and can score even when his shot isn't falling.

Nocioni is a better long range shooter, but Deng is a better slasher. Deng won't have as many 4-13, 2-12, 1-11 nights.

Posted: **Sun Jan 6, 2008 11:57 pm**

Remember Nocioni was our MVP 2 years ago when we were 7th seed team and he was also our MVP for the Playoff series against Miami Heat.

Nocioni can score but like Doug said, he is far more streakier and I would prefer the more consistent option in Deng and trust him more than Nocioni. We already have enough of INCONSISTENT shooters on our team (Hinrich/Gordon/Duhon/Nocioni etc).

This doesn't mean Deng is a better scorer but he is more of a preferred option when both Nocioni and Deng are similar scorers (in averages per 48).

I know you only want to point out scoring but defense and other intangibles can not be overlooked when comparing players.

With that said, since Nocioni can fulfill the SF position just fine if Deng were to get traded for a Gasol or type player (I wouldn't have minded that trade gasol for Deng).

Posted: **Mon Jan 7, 2008 12:01 am**

cool007 wrote:With that said, since Nocioni can fulfill the SF position just fine if Deng were to get traded

Obviously this is the end point of the discussion. Thank you. Though I have really no preference that Deng should go over Nocioni necessarily.

Deng and Noc's production numbers are incredibly similar over even mintues. Of course, 'defense' is not a production stat beyond blocks and steals and I noted how Noc can suck on defense at times. The fact that Deng is better than Noc and far younger, is not lost on the rest of the league, and therefore Deng

Posted: **Mon Jan 7, 2008 12:16 am**

Rerisen wrote:So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug? :-?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

Nocioni takes easier shots because he generally shoots open jumpers or open shots in the lane. When he takes higher degree of difficulty shots he doesn't seem nearly as effective. He's not counted on to create as many shots as Deng.

I don't think Deng's inability to shoot 3s is a strength, I think the fact that he puts up a nearly identical TS% while not shooting 3s is a big strength, because you will get far greater consistency game to game from Luol.

Posted: **Mon Jan 7, 2008 12:21 am**

also important to note is noc as the starting small forward would be on a much more reasonable deal than deng will get in the offseason.

and i will be the one to say noc is far more clutch than deng. to me, he is fearless and has icewater in his veins, something most of the players on the team are sorely lacking. noc isnt afraid to try to put it down in traffic, which even when he fails is good for team morale and intensity.

noc is ideally a 6th man, but if deng is converted with filler into a gasol type, the bulls become a better team. dengs potential and age clearly are what make him valuable enough to potentially get something really great at power forward.

Posted: **Mon Jan 7, 2008 2:58 am**

Rerisen wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Obviously this is the end point of the discussion. Thank you. Though I have really no preference that Deng should go over Nocioni necessarily.

Deng and Noc's production numbers are incredibly similar over even mintues. Of course, 'defense' is not a production stat beyond blocks and steals and I noted how Noc can suck on defense at times. The fact that Deng is better than Noc and far younger, is not lost on the rest of the league, and therefore Deng

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Better Scorer: Noc or Deng?

Better Scorer: Noc or Deng?