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I've been pleading ignorance regarding Tyrus' offensive regression so far this season (his TS% has declined from 52.1% last season to 43.9% this season and this is the main reason he's not having a very good season). Looking at the 82 games figures though, the problem would seem to be that he's dunking the ball less often. Admittedly, I do have some trouble deciphering their numbers: while his percentage of dunks is down from 29% last season to 27% this season, that doesn't necessarily mean he's dunking the ball less (he could just be attempting other types of shots more often). However, the fact that his "points" on dunk attempts are down from 2.1 to 1.6 despite only a small decrease in efficiency on dunk attempts (down to 87.5% from 93.8% last season) would seem to indicate that he's dunking the ball less often. The only problem I'm having is the points for the different types of shot attempts don't add up to his season averages. Still, I think my conclusion is probably still solid.

http://www.82games.com/0607/06CHI10A.HTM

http://www.82games.com/0708/07CHI11A.HTM

The question then becomes, why are his dunk attempts down? Increased defensive attention? Less aggressiveness? Less confidence? Fewer transition baskets? Playing further away from the basket? Was this season and/or his first half this season an aberration? Something else? A combination of a number of different things?

Tyrus' detractors like to make categorical statements about how he can't score. If that's true, it's a recent development since he scored at a solid clip with decent efficiency last season. I think that's important to recognize and I think it's important for he and the coaching staff to break out some tape from last season and try to figure out what's changed. I won't attempt to actually calculate it but I'm guessing that if he put up this season's numbers with last season's FG%, scoring rate, and foul attempts (decreased trips to the line are another, likely related problem he's having on offense), he'd be leading the team in PER.

Well he's been jerked around this year. Last year there was an effort to involve him in the offense, and take advantage of his abilities.

This year there is no such effort, and why would there be, for someone who plays sporaically, when they do play.

Just part of the "how to draft someone you know you have to develop, and then refuse to develop him" thing.

You posted the wrong numbers...

Based off 100% of all of Tyrus' attempts...
Dunks are down from 29% to 17%
Tips are up from 2% to 3% - no real change
Close in 40% to 41% - no real change
Jumpshots have risen from 28% to 39%

So his dunks are now being replaced with jump shots, he's being used further away from the rim last year and his drawing fouls has went from a great 21% of all his shots down to 11.6%

Instead of running those plays where he attacked the rim, he now shoots jumpers. His jumper has gotten better, a good deal better but it's still not average.

Well, he actually makes jump shots, so I guess that's part of it.

However, what concerns me is that he's missing a lot of really easy shots. Also, he's getting blocked more than I saw last year. So I would guess a combination of confidence loss and defensive attention which is probably connected. It's probably made him more passive as a result, and less confidence to just throw it down.

kyrv wrote:Well he's been jerked around this year. Last year there was an effort to involve him in the offense, and take advantage of his abilities.

This year there is no such effort, and why would there be, for someone who plays sporaically, when they do play.
Just part of the "how to draft someone you know you have to develop, and then refuse to develop him" thing.

This pretty much sums it up.

Last year the game as in offense actually changed when Tyrus came in. The team would go from a slower boring pass the ball to PJ to guys looking for Tyrus every trip down for lobs and easy cuts to the basket.

This has all stopped.

Why has it stopped? I believe its a combination of 2 things. Call it the chicken or the egg theory.

I could be because Tyrus just stopped running for the lobs because he no longer gets the ball (no one is looking for him) or its because Tyrus doesnt run anymore and thats why he doesnt get the lobs. Thats the million dollar question.

Im more inclined to believe its just that the guards cant find them and not because they arent running. The supported theory is Joakim Noah.

I believe it goes without question that Noah definitely runs his butt off on every change of possession. But how many times has the guard actually passed to him to finish those plays? Hardly any. Case closed.

This is why I stand by my statement that if Tyrus or Noah played for Golden State,PHX or heck even Utah, they would look like stars.

as the memphis game showed us..the lob play is a formidable play. You can't hang your hat on it but if you at least look for it you should be able to get it a few times a game..or in memphis' case every damn play. The bulls pretty much gave that up for whatever reason. Of course it makes it tougher when he doesn't play. I was very happy when gordon threw tyrus a lob in the last game even tho tyrus blew it. It helped us alot last year..it could help this year too.

JeremyB0001 wrote:I won't attempt to actually calculate it but I'm guessing that if he put up this season's numbers with last season's FG%, scoring rate, and foul attempts (decreased trips to the line are another, likely related problem he's having on offense), he'd be leading the team in PER.

So you're saying that if he hadn't gotten worse, he might have gotten better or stayed the same?

I'm sorry for the sarcasm. I guess I'm not a big fan of conflating statistical analysis with a lot of ifs and buts. Yeah, if Thomas were shooting as well as last year and if he still blocked shots and got to the line, he'd be having a hell of a year. But he's not doing any of those things, and not one but two head coaches haven't been pleased with his progress, so . . . I don't know, where does that leave us?

AirP. wrote:You posted the wrong numbers...

I don't understand what you mean. Just that you think his increase in jumpers attempted provides important context and I excluded that figure? I don't think his jumpers trade off with his dunks in the sense that I don't think that when he got the ball on the perimeter last season he would attempt to dunk the ball and now he settles for a jump shot instead. I think the increase in jump shots results from the fact that he used to pass the ball when he had an open jumper last season because his couldn't hit the shot reliably, whereas he now has the confidence to attempt those shots.

If you're saying that his confidence in the jumper has led him to hang out further from the basket and led to more opportunities to shoot jumpers and fewer opportunities for dunks, you might be onto something. Still, I think the team shares a lot of the blame here. As I've discussed before, we run an offense that relies on big men to shoot jump shots and Tyrus is usually paired with a front court player who can only score within 6 or 8 feet of the basket (Noah, Wallace, or Gray).

The Big Dog wrote:what concerns me is that he's missing a lot of really easy shots. Also, he's getting blocked more than I saw last year. So I would guess a combination of confidence loss and defensive attention which is probably connected. It's probably made him more passive as a result, and less confidence to just throw it down.

As far as dunks go, there's no substantial difference according to the 82 games data: 2% of his dunk attempts were blocked last season as opposed to 3% this season and he converted them 93.8% of the time last season versus 87.5% of the time this season. The difference in the layups, hooks, etc. (presumably measured by 82 game's "close" category that you're likely referring to hasn't changed much either: 26% of those attempts were blocked last season compared to 27% this season and he converted 33.3% of those attempts last season versus 30.7% of them this season. The only notable differences I see in the figures are that he's attempting fewer dunks and that he's attempting and converting more jumpers.

DASMACKDOWN wrote:Im more inclined to believe its just that the guards cant find them and not because they arent running. The supported theory is Joakim Noah.

Yeah, I don't know if there's data to confirm or deny it, but I suspect the team as a whole is not getting as many (promising) fast break opportunities this season.

Mr. Tibbs wrote:as the memphis game showed us..the lob play is a formidable play. You can't hang your hat on it but if you at least look for it you should be able to get it a few times a game..or in memphis' case every damn play. The bulls pretty much gave that up for whatever reason.

Yeah, my perception is that we're not throwing as many lobs. Last season I can remember multiple games where Tyrus converted at least three or five lobs. The only game I can remember where that happened this season is the most recent Sacramento game. Of course, the guards looking for him less is just one possible explanation. It's possible that teams are trying harder to defend against the lob when Tyrus is in the game or that he's hanging out on the perimeter more. It seems to me though that there's a way to solve all three of those potential problems: run lob plays. If a play is called out of a time out that calls for Tyrus to run off a screen off the ball and go up for a lob, the guards will be forced to look for him, he won't be standing around on the perimeter, and the pick should disrupt any defensive positioning designed to prevent a lob to Tyrus.

his dunks and free throw attempts go hand in hand.

Last year he used to patrol the lane and baseline. This year he goes whole quarters where he is at the top of the key swinging the ball side to side as opposed to the team running on offensive set that sees him moving off the ball more and around the rim.

The coaches changed how they use him and he hasn't found anything where he can just be an aggressive player running at the rim. He needs to improve his skills and the coaches need to change their approach both for him to succeed.

ScottMay wrote:So you're saying that if he hadn't gotten worse, he might have gotten better or stayed the same?

No. I'm saying a common assumption with a player like Tyrus is that the problem is that he hasn't developed when in reality his game has progressed in many areas. The problem is instead that it has regressed in certain areas and if a player succeeded in a certain facet of the game in the past, he should theoretically be able to succeed in that facet of the game again, unless of course the change is due not to the players performance but to other external factors (adjustments by other teams, an aberration, etc.). Several of the questions I posed asked whether or not different external factors might be coming into play.

Typically, a player's production is expected to increase from a young age forwards. If a player simply remains stagnant in some areas, it's not all that hard to explain: he didn't put in the necessary work, he's a slow learner, the skill just happens to be maxed out, etc. However, when a player goes backwards, that's much more difficult to explain and thus warrants more discussion.

Put simply, if he did it before, odds are good that he should be able to do it again, right? The notion that he just "got worse" and it's just something everyone should come to grips with rather strongly contradicts conventional wisdom and typical expectations.

ScottMay wrote:Yeah, if Thomas were shooting as well as last year and if he still blocked shots and got to the line, he'd be having a hell of a year. But he's not doing any of those things, and not one but two head coaches haven't been pleased with his progress, so . . . I don't know, where does that leave us?

Isn't that surprising and strange? Certainly no one expected "a raw project" to peak in a number of areas as a 20 year old rookie. Don't you feel like there should be a way to fix the backslide or at least explain it?

Well, Jeremy, those are two great head coaches. That's why one isn't working and the other, shouldn't be working.

Remember that Tyrus actually began the year as a starter. He was playing best or second best (to Deng) of the starters, but definitely not the worst.

Paxson announced he would make a lineup change and some (including me) correctly guessed they would not start Tyrus, even though he wasn't the problem.

Anyway, Skiles has sort of treated him since then, that he was the problem. Or, maybe just with his (Skiles') head up his butt rotations, it just seemed like it.

If Tyrus had played his way out of the rotation, that would be one thing. He didn't.

I do think a significant part of his dropoff is more jumpers/fewer dunks.

His jumper has improved, but I think that overall, his ability to score is still best served by taking advantage of that athleticism.

As Shaq used to say in that commercial (paraphrasing Bootsy Collins) :

You can't fake the funk on a nasty dunk.

I think the Bulls and Tyrus both continue to chase this fantasy of transforming Thomas into a 3, and as others have pointed out, that strategy has Marcus Fizer written all over it.

One of the underlying themes of a lot of posters' plans to right the ship is to play players to their strengths and avoid playing players in ways that expose their weaknesses. I don't think I post it nearly enough, but that type of common sense is exactly the thinking I am on board with.

Tyrus (and the staff that encourages the ThreeThink) should make a continuous loop of that Dwyane Wade "angel/devil on the shoulder -- dunk on him" commercial and superimpose Tyson's head(s). The dude is at his best when he is high flying. Ergo, that is what he should be doing.

TB#1 wrote:I do think a significant part of his dropoff is more jumpers/fewer dunks.

His jumper has improved, but I think that overall, his ability to score is still best served by taking advantage of that athleticism.

As Shaq used to say in that commercial (paraphrasing Bootsy Collins)

You can't fake the funk on a nasty dunk.

I think the Bulls and Tyrus both continue to chase this fantasy of transforming Thomas into a 3, and as others have pointed out, that strategy has Marcus Fizer written all over it.

One of the underlying themes of a lot of posters plans to right the ship is to play players to their strengths and avoid playing players in ways that expose their weaknesses. I don't think I post it nearly enough, but that type of common sense is exactly the thinking I am on board with.

Tyrus (and the staff that encourages the ThreeThink) should make a continuous loop of that Dwyane Wade "angel/devil on the shoulder -- dunk on him" commercial and superimpose Tyson's head(s). The dude is at his best when he is high flying. Ergo, that is what he should be doing.

Very well said.

I just think Tyrus is playing what they ask of him, though. Whether nor not he thinks he is a SF, they are playing him there, when most people seem to believe he's an inside player.

There was a good thread on if playing Tyrus at SF is ultimately a worse thing than not playing. Myself I can't say.

As you note, and common sense, drafting a project at effectively #2 and then not playing him, then playing him out of position, reeks of 'not knowing what they are doing' stench.

TB#1 wrote:I think the Bulls and Tyrus both continue to chase this fantasy of transforming Thomas into a 3, and as others have pointed out, that strategy has Marcus Fizer written all over it.

I don't think it resembles a three though, at least not in this offense. His role is similar to Joe Smith, who I think plays the way the PF is envisioned as playing in this offense. The problem is Tyrus doesn't have the right skill set. The question then becomes, how much of this is the result of Tyrus' volition and how much of it is due to the coaching/offensive system.

You're dead on about playing players to their strengths more. I'd say that even if it is Tyrus' fault that he's playing near the basket less, competent coaching should be able to remedy that without a great deal of difficulty.

The problem with Tyrus is that he tries to do too much on the offensive end at times, which leads to a terrible shot or a turnover. He also isn't aggressive enough at times around the basket, almost looking as though he think his natural speed and jumping ability should get him a basket. He doesn't power up and finish strong enough around the basket as you'd like to see from a guy who has top 10 athletic ability in this entire league. But finishing around the basket also has alot to do with strength, which Tyrus doesn't have yet. He still has alot of difficulty finishing baskets when he receives contact...

JeremyB0001 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



You're dead on about playing players to their strengths more. I'd say that even if it is Tyrus' fault that he's playing near the basket less, competent coaching should be able to remedy that without a great deal of difficulty.

I'm not placing the blame on Tyrus really, other than noting that he has expressed his intention to be a 3. Absolutely, it is on the coaches to put him (and all the players) in a position to succeed, based on what they can and cannot do.

kulaz3000 wrote: But finishing around the basket also has alot to do with strength, which Tyrus doesn't have yet. He still has alot of difficulty finishing baskets when he receives contact...

That is a very big, but correctable problem over time.

As an undersized 4, he has some distinct disadvantages. His athleticism helps overcome some of his size shortcomings. Overcoming the rest of the shortcomings will require him to gain muscle -- some bulk muscle, but mostly pure strength, so he can bang around among the trees.

A problem with these numbers is that it's a relatively small sample size. Tyrus has only attempted 183 shots and only made 71. Iverson can do that in six or seven games. Quite a few of those shots have come in meaningless garbage time as well.

I agree with him playing at the 3 is changing his game, with the minutes Tyrus is playing at the 3, that means the lane is too clogged for him to do his "catch ball near basket, two hand power dunk" play.

The defense is well aware that dunking is his only effective offensive move, his post moves haven't appeared to have advanced, he's not very adept with his back to the basket, so they know what to play him for. He doesn't have an advantage at playing at the 3 because he isn't effective at posting up smaller players.

I think the problem with Tyrus is that he's gotten tired of looking for lobs and passes and they just don't come so he just doesn't look for them. He's been playing/practicing with a PG with no vision in Hinrich, he's got a SF in Nocioni who won't pass the ball to an open guy underneath the basket unless the moon is full, Gordon's going to gun his shots.

If you've played basketball, how many people do you know will run the court hard if they consistently don't touch the ball. Up till Skiles being let go our fast breaks were pull up 20 footers and our bigs were expected to run the court just to rebound for them, that's one of the most messed up things I've ever heard of. We need some good passing guards, which Duhon is but we usually have Hinrich and Gordon on the court who don't look to pass much and when Hinrich does it's usually a safe pass.

Another good passing PG would really help this team.

kulaz3000 wrote:The problem with Tyrus is that he tries to do too much on the offensive end at times, which leads to a terrible shot or a turnover.

That may be a problem but I wouldn't say it's the primary problem. I think the circus shots that you're referring to are charted as "close" by 82 games, and as I noted before, he hasn't substantially regressed in that area. It may be something he could and should improve on but it didn't prevent him from posting a respectable TS% last season.

Similarly, while it's still a good idea for him to improve further, he's improved his turnovers pretty dramatically since last season so that's not a big problem I'd look at in terms of his development from last season to this season.

kulaz3000 wrote:He also isn't aggressive enough at times around the basket, almost looking as though he think his natural speed and jumping ability should get him a basket. He doesn't power up and finish strong enough around the basket as you'd like to see from a guy who has top 10 athletic ability in this entire league. But finishing around the basket also has alot to do with strength, which Tyrus doesn't have yet. He still has alot of difficulty finishing baskets when he receives contact...

I agree with most of this and it seems like this might be an area where he did better last season. I don't really understand where you're coming from about the reason why he doesn't go up stronger. You think if he was relying on his athleticism he'd be finishing better and harder. The fact that he's not would seem to suggest that if anything he's not aware enough of his athleticism. More strength would be nice but if he's initiating contact, he should still be getting to the line and he's not getting to the line as often as last year.